So we're sitting at 14-4 (5-3), and we have 12 games left to finish building our NCAA resume. Even though I think the NET ranking system is incredibly flawed, it is used heavily by the selection committee, so the main rankings tool I'll use are the NET rankings, as of today. I'll mainly focus on resume building wins (Quad 1 wins), and resume wrecking losses (Quad 3 and 4 losses). Quad 1 and 2 losses often don't register or decide much. And then Quad 3 and 4 wins never mean anything, and Quad 2 wins are afterthoughts usually.
Quad 1 wins we've already gotten: Ohio State, Purdue
Quad 3/4 losses we've already had: None
Definite remaining Quad 1 opportunities: Illinois, at MSU, Wisky, at OSU, at Purdue
Definite remaining Quad 3/4 potential pitfalls: PSU, Maryland, Rutgers
Games that could end up Quad 1: at NW, at Minny
Obviously ALL games matter. But the 2 games that will likely not register much for the committee win or lose, are the game at Maryland, and this Sunday's Michigan game. Those games are both solidly Quad 2 games. And while they'll obviously factor into the final NET ranking, winning or losing them won't move us up or down a ton.
So...Lets say we split those 2 games, win all 3 of the potential bad loss games, split the NW/Minny games with the win ending up being Quad 1, and then going 1-4 in the other definite Quad 1s... I think 2-3 is just as possible, but we could play well in all 5 of these games and lose them all. Anything better than 2-3 would be remarkable.
Overall: 20-10
B10: 11-9
Quad 1 Record: 4-8
Since we're currently sitting with a 31 NET ranking, I would think winning as many games as we lose from here on out, and having 5-7 more Quad 1 games left, many on the road, would boost our NET ranking. Probably would end up in the 25ish range. So if it plays out anywhere close to what I laid out, I'd see us with a 6-8 seed in the NCAAs. As an obvious lock to get in.
To me, that's a good overall season. If we end up winning more than 6 games coming home, and any more Quad 1s, then obviously that starts to inch towards a really successful season. Any less than that, and we start to inch back down towards the bubble. The worrisome thing, to me, is all of those Quad 3 home games are against teams that are more than capable of beating us. With how weak much of our OOC was, we can't afford any Quad 3/4 losses, and we'll have to play good basketball to win those games.
This years conference schedule is strange in that it provides a lot of Quad 1 opportunities. But also provides some Quad 3 level games, that should be easy wins, that aren't likely to be easy at all. The days of thumping the bottom team or two by 30 at home are long gone for the most part.
My predictions:
Optimistic/Realistic: 13-7 conference record, 5 seed in NCAAs
Pessimistic/Realistic: 9-11 conference record, wrong side of the bubble
Most likely: 11-9 conference record, 8 seed in the NCAAs. Likely a very scary/good 8 seed that is held back by our weak OOC schedule.
Quad 1 wins we've already gotten: Ohio State, Purdue
Quad 3/4 losses we've already had: None
Definite remaining Quad 1 opportunities: Illinois, at MSU, Wisky, at OSU, at Purdue
Definite remaining Quad 3/4 potential pitfalls: PSU, Maryland, Rutgers
Games that could end up Quad 1: at NW, at Minny
Obviously ALL games matter. But the 2 games that will likely not register much for the committee win or lose, are the game at Maryland, and this Sunday's Michigan game. Those games are both solidly Quad 2 games. And while they'll obviously factor into the final NET ranking, winning or losing them won't move us up or down a ton.
So...Lets say we split those 2 games, win all 3 of the potential bad loss games, split the NW/Minny games with the win ending up being Quad 1, and then going 1-4 in the other definite Quad 1s... I think 2-3 is just as possible, but we could play well in all 5 of these games and lose them all. Anything better than 2-3 would be remarkable.
Overall: 20-10
B10: 11-9
Quad 1 Record: 4-8
Since we're currently sitting with a 31 NET ranking, I would think winning as many games as we lose from here on out, and having 5-7 more Quad 1 games left, many on the road, would boost our NET ranking. Probably would end up in the 25ish range. So if it plays out anywhere close to what I laid out, I'd see us with a 6-8 seed in the NCAAs. As an obvious lock to get in.
To me, that's a good overall season. If we end up winning more than 6 games coming home, and any more Quad 1s, then obviously that starts to inch towards a really successful season. Any less than that, and we start to inch back down towards the bubble. The worrisome thing, to me, is all of those Quad 3 home games are against teams that are more than capable of beating us. With how weak much of our OOC was, we can't afford any Quad 3/4 losses, and we'll have to play good basketball to win those games.
This years conference schedule is strange in that it provides a lot of Quad 1 opportunities. But also provides some Quad 3 level games, that should be easy wins, that aren't likely to be easy at all. The days of thumping the bottom team or two by 30 at home are long gone for the most part.
My predictions:
Optimistic/Realistic: 13-7 conference record, 5 seed in NCAAs
Pessimistic/Realistic: 9-11 conference record, wrong side of the bubble
Most likely: 11-9 conference record, 8 seed in the NCAAs. Likely a very scary/good 8 seed that is held back by our weak OOC schedule.
