Recession it is...

[snarlcakes]

I'm noticing a trend.

• There won't be any substantial inflation. Wrong.
• Inflation will be transitory. Wrong
• Inflation has peaked. Wrong
• We don't see the economy slipping into a recession anytime soon. Wrong
• We're not in a recession. Wrong
• The economy is strong. Wrong

I won't list all the covid fallacies, but it hasn't been a good 2-3 years for our central planners (that includes Trump). As, always, the answer is buy Bitcoin and sleep like a baby at night. The notion that 7 unelected people should be in charge of the money supply is barbaric and leads to many of the issues were facing today.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

I'm noticing a trend.

• There won't be any substantial inflation. Wrong.
• Inflation will be transitory. Wrong
• Inflation has peaked. Wrong
• We don't see the economy slipping into a recession anytime soon. Wrong
• We're not in a recession. Wrong
• The economy is strong. Wrong

I won't list all the covid fallacies, but it hasn't been a good 2-3 years for our central planners (that includes Trump). As, always, the answer is buy Bitcoin and sleep like a baby at night. The notion that 7 unelected people should be in charge of the money supply is barbaric and leads to many of the issues were facing today.

Your posts get worse each time

 

[snarlcakes]

Your posts get worse each time

I’ve noticed you never respond with much substance or make predictions. I’ve asked you several times. Tell me what’s going to happen?

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

I’ve noticed you never respond with much substance or make predictions. I’ve asked you several times. Tell me what’s going to happen?

If I knew, I'd be a Billionaire and not laughing at a BTC fan boi on a message board. Well, at least the first part I know to be true.

 

[anon_mya1phvcpf5x4]

according to this site, there is no recession - http://tiny.cc/5nxtuz

 

[bailey777]

I'm noticing a trend.

• There won't be any substantial inflation. Wrong.
• Inflation will be transitory. Wrong
• Inflation has peaked. Wrong
• We don't see the economy slipping into a recession anytime soon. Wrong
• We're not in a recession. Wrong
• The economy is strong. Wrong

I won't list all the covid fallacies, but it hasn't been a good 2-3 years for our central planners (that includes Trump). As, always, the answer is buy Bitcoin and sleep like a baby at night. The notion that 7 unelected people should be in charge of the money supply is barbaric and leads to many of the issues were facing today.

Add in the fact Manchin just sold his state down to river to fund hundreds of billions in new taxes and spending and inflation is hear to stay for a very long time. Only left wing democrats would spen 500 billion during a recession and 41 year high inflation. But they do not really care about inflation they are all about the misssion of destroying fossil fuels no matter what the cost to middle class americans.

 

[snarlcakes]

If I knew, I'd be a Billionaire and not laughing at a BTC fan boi on a message board. Well, at least the first part I know to be true.

Lol..so you don’t know what’s going to happen, but you definitely know what’s going to happen with Bitcoin😉

 

[bailey777]

Your posts get worse each time

Everything he said is a fact but a fact you do not want to debate obviously.

 

[Eurocyldon]

I'm noticing a trend.

• There won't be any substantial inflation. Wrong.
• Inflation will be transitory. Wrong
• Inflation has peaked. Wrong
• We don't see the economy slipping into a recession anytime soon. Wrong
• We're not in a recession. Wrong
• The economy is strong. Wrong

I won't list all the covid fallacies, but it hasn't been a good 2-3 years for our central planners (that includes Trump). As, always, the answer is buy Bitcoin and sleep like a baby at night. The notion that 7 unelected people should be in charge of the money supply is barbaric and leads to many of the issues were facing today.

Hard to argue with the failure and now they are doubling down on stupid. You think inflation is high now. Wait until they spend another trillion. Pothole Pete will never stop smiling over the pain inflicted on the American people so they turn to EVs.

Not a fan of bitcoin or any cryptocurrency. Yet to see a digital asset that cannot be hacked. Also, anything digital can be tracked and that's not good if the current government decides you are an enemy, which they clearly identify as half the country.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Everything he said is a fact but a fact you do not want to debate obviously.

Some of it is. Some of it isn't. The fact that he omitted the disastrous Fiscal Policy is telling.

 

[bailey777]

WASHINGTON (AP) — An inflation gauge that is closely tracked by the Federal Reserve jumped 6.8% in June from a year ago, the biggest increase in four decades, and leaving Americans with no relief from surging costs.

A measure of employees’ wages, excluding government workers, jumped 1.6% in the April-June quarter, matching a record high reached last fall. Higher wages can fuel inflation if companies pass their higher labor costs on to their customers, as they typically do.

Just wait til the machin depression sets in.

 

[TDHoosier]

WASHINGTON (AP) — An inflation gauge that is closely tracked by the Federal Reserve jumped 6.8% in June from a year ago, the biggest increase in four decades, and leaving Americans with no relief from surging costs.

A measure of employees’ wages, excluding government workers, jumped 1.6% in the April-June quarter, matching a record high reached last fall. Higher wages can fuel inflation if companies pass their higher labor costs on to their customers, as they typically do.

Just wait til the machin depression sets in.

You mean to tell me that business owners and companies pass the cost increases down to their customers? Wow I would have never guessed this, I just assumed the business would have just eaten that cost increase. You learn something everyday.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

You mean to tell me that business owners and companies pass the cost increases down to their customers? Wow I would have never guessed this, I just assumed the business would have just eaten that cost increase. You learn something everyday.

It certainly confounds Biden. Then again, what would you expect from a career politician?

 

[Lucy01]

It certainly confounds Biden. Then again, what would you expect from a career politician?

Maybe Biden can get Elizabeth Warren to explain it to him!

 

[Eurocyldon]

Just ask Amber. Amber can explain all the positives coming from the socialist dem policies.

 

[anon_mya1phvcpf5x4]

Just ask Amber. Amber can explain all the positives coming from the socialist dem policies.

after that you can explain all the fascist gop policies

 

[TDHoosier]

It certainly confounds Biden. Then again, what would you expect from a career politician?

If you live 10 minutes in the business world especially in any capacity of retail its a pretty simple thing to figure out. I've had many laughs at my friends who were 100% behind all the wage increases and such, the it won't affect me mentality was hilarious.

 

[hoot1]

Having lived through stagflation (recessions and inflation) in the 1970s I can smell the scent of stagflation in the air.

That stagflation was worse than either inflation or a recession as it tended to last longer than does either a recession or period of inflation.

By the way, we have had several periods when stock market prices went up while experiencing a recession. Seems to me, investors can have more faith in the Fed turning the economy around than they do in the Pols pushing the right buttons.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Having lived through stagflation (recessions and inflation) in the 1970s I can smell the scent of stagflation in the air.

That stagflation was worse than either inflation or a recession as it tended to last longer than does either a recession or period of inflation.

By the way, we have had several periods when stock market prices went up while experiencing a recession. Seems to me, investors can have more faith in the Fed turning the economy around than they do in the Pols pushing the right buttons.

Aren't markets forward-looking? Usually by the time a recession is officially declared, the markets have already taken their licks. Don't you think 2022 feels that way?

 

[Eurocyldon]

after that you can explain all the fascist gop policies

Perfect! You replied to your name as if on cue. This makes me very happy.

I'm guessing anyone that disagrees with you is a "fascist" because that's what the blue haired teacher told you during gender theories class.

Maybe you call out a specif GOP policy you disagree with and I can address it for you. Until then we will wait for you to name one socialist dem policy that has made life better for an actual American citizen since JB came into office.

We are waiting...

 

[grainbin]

I'm noticing a trend.

• There won't be any substantial inflation. Wrong.
• Inflation will be transitory. Wrong
• Inflation has peaked. Wrong
• We don't see the economy slipping into a recession anytime soon. Wrong
• We're not in a recession. Wrong
• The economy is strong. Wrong

I won't list all the covid fallacies, but it hasn't been a good 2-3 years for our central planners (that includes Trump). As, always, the answer is buy Bitcoin and sleep like a baby at night. The notion that 7 unelected people should be in charge of the money supply is barbaric and leads to many of the issues were facing today.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

You don't quite have this figured out yet do you newbie?

 

[hoot1]

Aren't markets forward-looking? Usually by the time a recession is officially declared, the markets have already taken their licks. Don't you think 2022 feels that way?

JDB, hope you are right and my stagflation experience of the 70s doesn't hold true.

In the 70s the entire decade saw the DOW average increase only 5%. Adjusted for inflation stocks were down 49%.

 

[Sope Creek]

JDB, hope you are right and my stagflation experience of the 70s doesn't hold true.

In the 70s the entire decade saw the DOW average increase only 5%. Adjusted for inflation stocks were down 49%.

Yeah, I worry that we've already had/seen the stock increases that would have been had over the next 15-20 years.

Stagflation . . . I worry about that too. Mentioned it to a bunch of lawyers in 2016 . . . but then I worry too much.

 

[Sope Creek]

JDB, hope you are right and my stagflation experience of the 70s doesn't hold true.

In the 70s the entire decade saw the DOW average increase only 5%. Adjusted for inflation stocks were down 49%.

What was the percentage increase in the DOW average during the sixties?

 

[T.M.P.]

I'm guessing anyone that disagrees with you is a "fascist" because that's what the blue haired teacher told you during gender theories class.

dumb

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Having lived through stagflation (recessions and inflation) in the 1970s I can smell the scent of stagflation in the air.

That stagflation was worse than either inflation or a recession as it tended to last longer than does either a recession or period of inflation.

By the way, we have had several periods when stock market prices went up while experiencing a recession. Seems to me, investors can have more faith in the Fed turning the economy around than they do in the Pols pushing the right buttons.

So much of the causes of today's problem is known, I'm not sure stagflation is as likely. We know the container ships are still knotted up, and we know most industrial nations are facing a real worker shortage. The question is, what happens if/when both are addressed?

The first problem is somewhat solved if we bring back more manufacturing. I doubt that will happen, so we are stuck waiting on it to eventually unknot. And it will.

The second problem is somewhat solved with increased immigration. Once we get desperate enough to try that. In the meantime a lot of recently retired people are considering going back:

The Great Unretirement: Most recently retired workers would consider returning to their jobs

“I just interviewed two weeks ago and I’m hoping to get hired. I’m scared of losing my home,” one early retiree reported.

fortune.com

 

[Sope Creek]

So much of the causes of today's problem is known, I'm not sure stagflation is as likely. We know the container ships are still knotted up, and we know most industrial nations are facing a real worker shortage. The question is, what happens if/when both are addressed?

The first problem is somewhat solved if we bring back more manufacturing. I doubt that will happen, so we are stuck waiting on it to eventually unknot. And it will.

The second problem is somewhat solved with increased immigration. Once we get desperate enough to try that. In the meantime a lot of recently retired people are considering going back:

The Great Unretirement: Most recently retired workers would consider returning to their jobs

“I just interviewed two weeks ago and I’m hoping to get hired. I’m scared of losing my home,” one early retiree reported.

fortune.com

I still think it's a political winner to do away with the $1 for every $2 earned penalty on early social security recipients. No reason for it when the economy is hurting for workers. And if there gets to be a surplus of unemployed folks, reinstate the penalty . . . maybe if unemployment hits 5% or 6%.

 

[hoot1]

What was the percentage increase in the DOW average during the sixties?

The DOW increase in the 1960s was 111%. Don't know what it was after adjusting for inflation.

Do know stocks love low inflation (in the 2-3% range per year) and are volatile in years of inflation above that range.

 

[Eurocyldon]

dumb

Yes you are. Thanks for letting us know. I'll enjoy my weekend now while you're on here all weekend long displaying that wonderful depth of thought.

 

[Sope Creek]

The DOW increase in the 1960s was 111%. Don't know what it was after adjusting for inflation.

Do know stocks love low inflation (in the 2-3% range per year) and are volatile in years of inflation above that range.

Maybe we're replaying the 60s and 70s. Stagflation occurs after a big runup in stocks . . . if that's the case we're in for a helluva hangover.

 

[cosmickid]

I still think it's a political winner to do away with the $1 for every $2 earned penalty on early social security recipients. No reason for it when the economy is hurting for workers. And if there gets to be a surplus of unemployed folks, reinstate the penalty . . . maybe if unemployment hits 5% or 6%.

I'd consider it even more of a winner if they had eliminated it before it bit me ... twice. $18,000 or so isn't a lot of money, and if any one had tried to tell me before hand that I'd eclipse it (for the 2nd time) while working temporarily for the 2020 (abbreviated) census, I'd have sworn they were crazy... Yet here we are...

They wanted to take my entire retirement check for the next 10+yrs. Luckily sanity prevailed and I'll have the penalties paid off by 2039 or so. Of course that might be well after I'm gone for a decade or more...

 

[Sope Creek]

I'd consider it even more of a winner if they had eliminated it before it bit me ... twice. $18,000 or so isn't a lot of money, and if any one had tried to tell me before hand that I'd eclipse it (for the 2nd time) while working temporarily for the 2020 (abbreviated) census, I'd have sworn they were crazy... Yet here we are...

They wanted to take my entire retirement check for the next 10+yrs. Luckily sanity prevailed and I'll have the penalties paid off by 2039 or so. Of course that might be well after I'm gone for a decade or more...

Even if you don't eclipse it, it's a PITA. I know a woman who wanted to continue to work for a year so that she could build up savings through taking social security early. I pointed out to her this provision and she withdrew her application.

I didn't know that the penalty could be greater than the amount of the benefit. Yikes!

There's actually a double hit. Not only do you get dinged $1 for every $2 earned, but you also get the lower social security monthly benefit for your entire life.

 

[bawlmer]

Maybe we're replaying the 60s and 70s. Stagflation occurs after a big runup in stocks . . . if that's the case we're in for a helluva hangover.

It's only occurred once, though, right? In the 70's, as far as the US economy? I think that introduces a lot of unknowns about whether that's where we're headed.

 

[Sope Creek]

It's only occurred once, though, right? In the 70's, as far as the US economy? I think that introduces a lot of unknowns about whether that's where we're headed.

Oh, I don't disagree . . . but inflation results from an imbalance between available goods/services and the money supply to pay for those goods/services. If - and it's a big if - the supply of goods dries up for any reason and the amount of money sloshing around in the economy is high, then stagnation and inflation will result. Maybe some of that extra money shoulda been used to pay governmental bills as they came due instead of borrowing to provide tax cuts.

Maybe.

 

[bailey777]

Mr. Obama said in August 2009: “The last thing you want to do is raise taxes in the middle of a recession because that would just suck up — take more demand out of the economy and put businesses in a further hole.”

The good old days! Obama is probably considered a moderate next to Old tax and spend Joe!

 

[dbmhoosier]

It certainly confounds Biden. Then again, what would you expect from a career politician?

Cmon man. He hasn't been in Washington that long. Nixon was President when he became a Senator.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

So much of the causes of today's problem is known, I'm not sure stagflation is as likely. We know the container ships are still knotted up, and we know most industrial nations are facing a real worker shortage. The question is, what happens if/when both are addressed?

The first problem is somewhat solved if we bring back more manufacturing. I doubt that will happen, so we are stuck waiting on it to eventually unknot. And it will.

The second problem is somewhat solved with increased immigration. Once we get desperate enough to try that. In the meantime a lot of recently retired people are considering going back:

The Great Unretirement: Most recently retired workers would consider returning to their jobs

“I just interviewed two weeks ago and I’m hoping to get hired. I’m scared of losing my home,” one early retiree reported.

fortune.com

there was already a movement to onshore before COVID. That’s only added to the importance. Moreover, cheap low value goods are being sourced more readily from Vietnam, Mexico and other non-Chinese manufacturers.

but, it always takes time, particularly when travel is still not easy or normal

 

[i'vegotwinners]

I'm noticing a trend.

• There won't be any substantial inflation. Wrong.
• Inflation will be transitory. Wrong
• Inflation has peaked. Wrong
• We don't see the economy slipping into a recession anytime soon. Wrong
• We're not in a recession. Wrong
• The economy is strong. Wrong

I won't list all the covid fallacies, but it hasn't been a good 2-3 years for our central planners (that includes Trump). As, always, the answer is buy Bitcoin and sleep like a baby at night. The notion that 7 unelected people should be in charge of the money supply is barbaric and leads to many of the issues were facing today.

you're right about the 7 appointed people, just like 9 appointed dictators answerable to no one ever.

wrong about inflation, just like the rest of the sheep.

we have inflation, because those driving it have no effective competition, or are controlled by the same entities that control their competition, thus can behave as monopolies/oligopolies.

we have inflation, because no one or thing is stopping it.

not rocket science.

 

[NPT]

Even if you don't eclipse it, it's a PITA. I know a woman who wanted to continue to work for a year so that she could build up savings through taking social security early. I pointed out to her this provision and she withdrew her application.

I didn't know that the penalty could be greater than the amount of the benefit. Yikes!

There's actually a double hit. Not only do you get dinged $1 for every $2 earned, but you also get the lower social security monthly benefit for your entire life.

Yeah I often wonder how they came up with some of their ideas. You have a person working and they are paying into SS so they are paying back a certain amount of what they are getting and they want to penalize that person. I guess they want to kick the old folks (me) out of the work force to make room for the next generation.

Another one I've never understood is getting penalized for not taking Medicare on time. Why would you penalize a person for not enrolling in a program where they (government) are losing money. In other words, the monthly premium for Medicare does not cover the cost associated with providing it.