Recent polling

[Bowlmania]

National polls mean next to nothing. Swing state polls are the key, particularly trends.

Recent polls show Harris and Trump tied in two of the three "blue wall" states, and Harris up in Pennsylvania. Two months ago Trump was ahead (in some cases well ahead) of Biden in all three.

Today's NYT/Siena poll has Harris +5 in Arizona and +2 in North Carolina. The last time a Dem presidential candidate took NC was Obama in 2008. Pubs are running a weak and wacky candidate for governor (reminiscent of Mastriano in PA a couple of years ago) in that state and he's down 10 to his Democrat opponent. That's not going to help the Pub ticket there.

Trump leads Harris (in today's NYT/Siena) in Nevada (+1) and Georgia (+4).

Florida is interesting. Trump led Biden in FL by 7 or more. In this week's FAU poll, Trump is up just +3 over Harris. I still think Trump will hold on and carry Florida, but Amendment 4 (the ballot initiative on abortion) is a wild card and could impact candidate voting. If we start seeing the Trump campaign spending time and resources in his home state, he's in huge trouble.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Moving forward past 2024 Republicans are going to have to start looking at other paths to victory outside the Blue Wall. Those are pretty much blue states now and are dominated by their major cities.

I don’t know what that looks like. Nevada is encouraging if that has any staying power. Maybe try to continue to build on Youngkin’s success in VA. Have to keep NC in the fold obviously.

The map is shrinking somewhat.

 

[DDE-6-20-23]

National polls mean next to nothing. Swing state polls are the key, particularly trends.

Recent polls show Harris and Trump tied in two of the three "blue wall" states, and Harris up in Pennsylvania. Two months ago Trump was ahead (in some cases well ahead) of Biden in all three.

Today's NYT/Siena poll has Harris +5 in Arizona and +2 in North Carolina. The last time a Dem presidential candidate took NC was Obama in 2008. Pubs are running a weak and wacky candidate for governor (reminiscent of Mastriano in PA a couple of years ago) in that state and he's down 10 to his Democrat opponent. That's not going to help the Pub ticket there.

Trump leads Harris (in today's NYT/Siena) in Nevada (+1) and Georgia (+4).

Florida is interesting. Trump led Biden in FL by 7 or more. In this week's FAU poll, Trump is up just +3 over Harris. I still think Trump will hold on and carry Florida, but Amendment 4 (the ballot initiative on abortion) is a wild card and could impact candidate voting. If we start seeing the Trump campaign spending time and resources in his home state, he's in huge trouble.

 

[Bowlmania]

You should use this as the litmus test for potential wife #4. If this excites her, she's in!!

 

[Bowlmania]

Moving forward past 2024 Republicans are going to have to start looking at other paths to victory outside the Blue Wall. Those are pretty much blue states now and are dominated by their major cities.

I don’t know what that looks like. Nevada is encouraging if that has any staying power. Maybe try to continue to build on Youngkin’s success in VA. Have to keep NC in the fold obviously.

The map is shrinking somewhat.

Appreciate the civil, considered response.

 

[larsIU]

But you do trust the media you like right?

 

[WhyisIUBBcursed]

But you do trust the media you like right?

That’s the problem.
Most people do

 

[mcmurtry66]

But you do trust the media you like right?

Show me what CLAY TRAVIS and BUCK SEXTON have gotten wrong.

I’ll wait….

Here’s the Mount Rushmore
Clay Travis Buck Sexton John Madden Ray Hudson

 

[UncleMark]

Today's NYT/Siena poll has Harris +5 in Arizona and +2 in North Carolina. The last time a Dem presidential candidate took NC was Obama in 2008.

I advocated for picking either Kelly or Cooper for VP, to either solidify AZ or to put NC in play. Looks like that won't be necessary.

A month ago I was totally discouraged, resigned to seeing a second Trump administration and all the horrors that would involve. Today there's a completely different vibe, one of hope and optimism.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I advocated for picking either Kelly or Cooper for VP, to either solidify AZ or to put NC in play. Looks like that won't be necessary.

A month ago I was totally discouraged, resigned to seeing a second Trump administration and all the horrors that would involve. Today there's a completely different vibe, one of hope and optimism.

If you’re an advocate of the welfare state I guess there would be hope and optimism

 

[UncleMark]

If you’re an advocate of the welfare state I guess there would be hope and optimism

I advocate defeating Donald Trump. Everything else is secondary.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I advocate defeating Donald Trump. Everything else is secondary.

He’s going to lose

 

[DDE-6-20-23]

But you do trust the media you like right?

Nahhh. It's all crap. You have to read about 5 different takes to form an opinion as you well know. Plus bowl is just FOS anyways.

 

[larsIU]

Nahhh. It's all crap. You have to read about 5 different takes to form an opinion as you well know. Plus bowl is just FOS anyways.

Nah Bowl is good. He can engage in conversation. You just won’t like what he has to say.

Which is fine. Agree on the multiple sources stuff. Everything is biased these days unless you get to something granular which can’t be “interpreted”.

 

[UncleMark]

Nah Bowl is good. He can engage in conversation. You just won’t like what he has to say.

Which is fine. Agree on the multiple sources stuff. Everything is biased these days unless you get to something granular which can’t be “interpreted”.

Hell, the source doesn't even matter any more. DDE and dbm and the like will blow off Fox or Drudge or the AP or anyone who publishes something they don't like.

 

[WhyisIUBBcursed]

I advocate defeating Donald Trump. Everything else is secondary.

I’m not unhappy watching Trump self implode, but a socialist state of Kamala doesn’t give me the warm fuzzies. I still go back to the premise that the Pubs could have nominated a corpse and won this race. They/we (hell I don’t even know if I am one anymore) actually chose something beneath a corpse

 

[Stuffshot]

You should use this as the litmus test for potential wife #4. If this excites her, she's in!!

This may be a serviceable backup:

But it's not clear whether he could stop staring long enoigh to tell the prospective No. 4 about it.

 

[Stuffshot]

Show me what CLAY TRAVIS and BUCK SEXTON have gotten wrong.

I’ll wait….

Here’s the Mount Rushmore
Clay Travis Buck Sexton John Madden Ray Hudson

... plus Booger McFarland and Charles Barkley.

 

[Spartans9312]

He’s going to lose

60-40 he loses…but he ain’t losing Florida or North Carolina

 

[larsIU]

... plus Booger McFarland and Charles Barkley.

Turrible!

 

[Stuffshot]

I advocate defeating Donald Trump. Everything else is secondary.

Here is what Trump stands for:

He and his followers don't support anything else except Trump and chaos. (Trump could have cut the Jan. 6 riots short but he didn't want to.)

 

[Stuffshot]

Hell, the source doesn't even matter any more. DDE and dbm and the like will blow off Fox or Drudge or the AP or anyone who publishes something they don't like.

That's correct. He publicizes and endorses any poster on X or Youtube that agrees with him.

 

[cosmickid]

Moving forward past 2024 Republicans are going to have to start looking at other paths to victory outside the Blue Wall. Those are pretty much blue states now and are dominated by their major cities.

I don’t know what that looks like. Nevada is encouraging if that has any staying power. Maybe try to continue to build on Youngkin’s success in VA. Have to keep NC in the fold obviously.

The map is shrinking somewhat.

Youngkin's "success" was built on the fact that he had a non-MAGA, moderate personna. You'll remember he wouldn't even be seen with Trump, and wouldn't allow Trump to make public appearances in VA.In 2023 Youngkin sought to consolidate power by taking the House and holding the Senate. Not only did his attempt at recapturing the House fail, but Dems won the Senate as well. As a result Dems were able to thwart Youngkin's attempt to promote a "conservative agenda"...

In NC the research triangle centered in Charlotte and the Raleigh/Durham/Chpel Hill area are two of the fastest growing metro areas in the entire country.That factor, as well as the fact that NC's pubs nominated an extrremist like Robinson are huge reasons KH is in a prime position to win NC.

Bozo's like Robinson energize anti-MAGA voters, not only Dems and Independents, but also moderate Republicans as well. Trump needs a massive number of split ticket voters, and is spending millions in hope of fending off the challenge from KH. Even Trump sycophant Mulvaney said today that Robinson is an anchor weighing down Trump in NC...

 

[cosmickid]

60-40 he loses…but he ain’t losing Florida or North Carolina

FL is probably fools gold, although the abortion ban will play a role and Trump will have to spend money he doesn't want to. NC is a real possibility, as KH is already polling ahead in NC of where Obama was at this point in 2008. Lots of students in NC, and at least two HBCUs. And Robinson is such a horrible candidate, like Mastriano level of horrible.

 

[Spartans9312]

FL is probably fools gold, although the abortion ban will play a role and Trump will have to spend money he doesn't want to. NC is a real possibility, as KH is already polling ahead in NC of where Obama was at this point in 2008. Lots of students in NC, and at least two HBCUs. And Robinson is such a horrible candidate, like Mastriano level of horrible.

Florida will be no closer than 5 points. Trump is probably up 3 to 4 points in NC.
Harris will win PA

 

[IUfanBorden]

That’s the problem.
Most people do

Very true. Its why I listen to what the candidates say, act, etc....They'll tell the truth, even if its only by accident.

Both candiddates are a reflection of what power/greed can do....Its an abyss. But Harris' policy, etc----are really, really bad for this country. She has zero clue on how the economy works...None. Nadda. Shes all about the flavor of the week. and says what is needed to be said, to each group. Just an absolute horrid candidate. At least with DJT, we know what we are getting. And if anyone can be truthful with themselves, his 4 years in office were solid....Great? Naaaah. But solid.

The dems waited to see how Biden would do in a debate----the decision to pull the plug was made well before that dude walked off the stage. So they do a late night switch----and now touting Kamala as the second coming of a Rosa Parks, or something. They wasnted her off the ticket....And now they are trying to hide all her past, her policy, stances, etc....

Hopefully when she actually has to answer questions---and debate, she will be exposed.

DJT isn't the best option----but hes a much better option than KH

 

[WhyisIUBBcursed]

Very true. Its why I listen to what the candidates say, act, etc....They'll tell the truth, even if its only by accident.

Both candiddates are a reflection of what power/greed can do....Its an abyss. But Harris' policy, etc----are really, really bad for this country. She has zero clue on how the economy works...None. Nadda. Shes all about the flavor of the week. and says what is needed to be said, to each group. Just an absolute horrid candidate. At least with DJT, we know what we are getting. And if anyone can be truthful with themselves, his 4 years in office were solid....Great? Naaaah. But solid.

The dems waited to see how Biden would do in a debate----the decision to pull the plug was made well before that dude walked off the stage. So they do a late night switch----and now touting Kamala as the second coming of a Rosa Parks, or something. They wasnted her off the ticket....And now they are trying to hide all her past, her policy, stances, etc....

Hopefully when she actually has to answer questions---and debate, she will be exposed.

DJT isn't the best option----but hes a much better option than KH

They both suck in the most horrifying way possible. I truly believe RFK is the best candidate we have