National polls mean next to nothing. Swing state polls are the key, particularly trends.
Recent polls show Harris and Trump tied in two of the three "blue wall" states, and Harris up in Pennsylvania. Two months ago Trump was ahead (in some cases well ahead) of Biden in all three.
Today's NYT/Siena poll has Harris +5 in Arizona and +2 in North Carolina. The last time a Dem presidential candidate took NC was Obama in 2008. Pubs are running a weak and wacky candidate for governor (reminiscent of Mastriano in PA a couple of years ago) in that state and he's down 10 to his Democrat opponent. That's not going to help the Pub ticket there.
Trump leads Harris (in today's NYT/Siena) in Nevada (+1) and Georgia (+4).
Florida is interesting. Trump led Biden in FL by 7 or more. In this week's FAU poll, Trump is up just +3 over Harris. I still think Trump will hold on and carry Florida, but Amendment 4 (the ballot initiative on abortion) is a wild card and could impact candidate voting. If we start seeing the Trump campaign spending time and resources in his home state, he's in huge trouble.
Recent polls show Harris and Trump tied in two of the three "blue wall" states, and Harris up in Pennsylvania. Two months ago Trump was ahead (in some cases well ahead) of Biden in all three.
Today's NYT/Siena poll has Harris +5 in Arizona and +2 in North Carolina. The last time a Dem presidential candidate took NC was Obama in 2008. Pubs are running a weak and wacky candidate for governor (reminiscent of Mastriano in PA a couple of years ago) in that state and he's down 10 to his Democrat opponent. That's not going to help the Pub ticket there.
Trump leads Harris (in today's NYT/Siena) in Nevada (+1) and Georgia (+4).
Florida is interesting. Trump led Biden in FL by 7 or more. In this week's FAU poll, Trump is up just +3 over Harris. I still think Trump will hold on and carry Florida, but Amendment 4 (the ballot initiative on abortion) is a wild card and could impact candidate voting. If we start seeing the Trump campaign spending time and resources in his home state, he's in huge trouble.