Dawkins has the physical tools to thrive in this offense if Deboard runs a similar offense to what he ran with Dobbs at UT. The question for Dawkins will Be how fast can he master the playbook. What you never really know when you bring a guy in is how well he can figure it out. Sometimes Freshman come in and figure things out quickly. Sometimes 5th year grad transfers don’t. It’s difficult to know because you don’t know them. I think TJ Simmons is a great example because he was a guy who came in instantly and knew the playbook as a True Freshman mid-year enrollee. Other guys who came in as older players struggled. So for Dawkins the key is how fast can he “get it”, and what kind of learner is he, because the physical tools are there.
I haven’t watched a lot of film on him, but from what I’ve seen throwing wise he has great ball placement on short and intermediate throws. He also has good velocity. That’s critical because so much of what Luke Timian does revolves around whether or not the QB can get it to him in a tight window, and give him room to run after the catch. The ball placement is also critical for our 6’4” guys on the edge, because it gives them a chance on every comeback/back shoulder fade. I expect Hale and Westbrook to get everything. We have a few other guys in that 6’2-6’4 range as well, along with TJ Ivy who I expect to see in the slot as a TE. That makes a guy like Dawkins more valuable in this offense than he may have been at other schools. The system just fits his skillset, and the personnel happens to fit what he does nicely.
Again, the key will be the offensive line. I’d expect IU to go with more read option plays, similar to what we saw with Tre Roberson, and similar to what Deboard ran with Dobbs at UT. They likely got this guy because he has a similar skillset to Dobbs. That means the O-line will have to be dramatically improved, or else he won’t last 12 games. It also means the Tight End blocking is CRITICAL, because they’ll likely have to sway block and be lead blockers on read options. How well the Tight Ends block will be critical. If you look at UT from Deboards Time there, and Dawkins film from Arizona, the tight ends were viscious blockers, and that often times is the difference between the QB getting a solid gain, or getting smacked in the mouth by a DE or OLB.
In the end I think that it’s a good insurance policy at worst, and that he’s a legitimate starter at best. My comments are based off of what I’ve seen on film, but it’s hard to project where he ends up. I really believe that 1. You never know if coaches will be able to teach a guy for various reasons, which makes it difficult to project what a guy will do before he plays. The bright side is that physically this guys in the 99th percentile of QB’s you’ll see in college. His stats (or lack thereof) don’t bother me, at all. Really it comes down to how DeBoard and the staff bring him along, and his willingness to work, because it’ll likely take extensive work for him to master the offense in 2-3 months.