LOL. Nader earned 180 times the final vote margin. It's more than plausible. It's a statistical certainty.
Possible good news for Trump
- Thread starter snarlcakes
- Start date
Not that I care to get into a war of trivial semantics here. I honestly don't care that much. But this can't actually be a "certainty" -- even if it's very, very, very likely.
My point wasn't to suggest that Nader merely may have tilted the scales -- and that he also may not have. My point was that, if the two-party margin is extremely close, it's plausible that a 3rd party candidate (even one who only drew 1.6% of the vote) could affect the outcome.
It's easier to say that about Nader -- because Nader was a left-wing candidate whose absence on the ballot would likely have resulted in more votes for the Democratic candidate -- than it would be about RFK2....whose platform isn't so easily categorized.
Sorry, it sounded like you were purposefully soft-peddling. Nader flipped the vote in 2000. No question. Hell, Buchanan probably flipped the vote, even without Nader (although you gotta blame that one on poor ballot design, and not on the third party candidate himself).
I mean, it's a moot point. You can't go back and fix those kinds of things. And you can't unrun a third party campaign. But you're absolutely right that in a close election, a third party candidate can make a difference, because that absolutely did happen in 2000.
I wasn’t soft-pedaling. I was just being numerically and grammatically precise. It may be an OCD thing. I can be like that.
The statistical likelihood that Nader’s candidacy flipped Florida may stretch out to 5 nines. But it’s just not something we can say definitively - which would require 100%.
Ah! FWIW, when I said "statistically certainty," I meant something in the range of p=.05, like you'd use in a statistical analysis. Obviously, technically speaking, you are correct. You can't prove it to a true certainty without more data than we have.
Going completely off 24 year memory but wasn't the Nader issue in Florida due to ballots being mis labeled or something. I thought there was a showing of the common Florida ballot compared to the ballot used in the contested county and the contested one had Nader listed as the #2 choice and spot where Gore was listed on the other Florida ballots.
Also believe the ballot was set up at the time for the option to vote party vs individual, so many felt the specific placement on that ballot of Nader as the Democratic candidate is what f#$ked Gore over but again, I'm just going completely off memory.
Gore lost fla by 500 votes and change. Nader pulled in 100k votes in fla. Bush in fla was represented by an IU lawyer
No, that was the Buchanan thing. The butterfly ballot had Buchanan and Gore right next to each other, but on opposite pages, so lots of people couldn't tell which hole to punch. Some 20K ballots got rejected because people voted for both Gore and Buchanan. In Palm Beach, Buchanan had a huge showing, despite the fact that he never campaigned there and expected to get very few votes. Most analysts think that most of Buchanan's votes in Palm Beach were mistakes intended for Gore. Would have been more than enough to swing the entire state.
Little anecdotal. Of our old college teammate chain. 3 rfk Jr voters. All three said if he drops out they won’t vote for either Trump or harris fwiw
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Then why are any of us here? Are we actually here anyway? really? Here?
And we wonder why women now control the world. Not that pussy didn't before, but now they are rubbing it in our noses...
Wait, this was meant to have a meaning, WHY am I smelling fish all of a sudden? OH shit, it's Tuna Roa ! ahhhhh
Yes, that was the thing brought up that I was trying to remember. I remember it was a punching error/thing with the ballot and what you described is what I was trying to remember in the details.
Thank you.
Yeah I was combining two themes/points that I remember from that time, as a Minnesotan, that were brought up in the discussions about the Florida results and recounts.
I remember Dems being pissed at Nader and per your numbers, that was a big driver of 'that fu#king Nader cost us' complaints from the Dems I knew from work at happy hour discussions back when I was a young climbing, middle management, corporate grunt.
These people are actually walking among us. If you can believe that. They. ARE. AMONG. US.
I call them the cattle car Germans. Just shut up and get in. It's a hell of a ride. TRUST US.
Dems have basically controlled the country for 12 of past 16years---yet everything is Trumps fault.
Everything is great---Yet campaign on "fixing things"
Wanna buy a home---Harris is gonna make that easier---NO, no....$25K free money aint gonna do that.
Kamala is for everybody ----inclduing ILLEGAL immigrants. Who get more than a citixen does.
And people just eat this shit up....
And now Waltz talking about, "Mind your own business..."---Weird. Remind me who set up a snitch on your neighbor hotline?
Fkin sheep.
I think Trump supporters are a little bit to sanguine about picking up RFK support. RFK supporters know who Trump is and they know who Harris is, and they're choosing RFK. This seems to me like a voter block that would just as soon leave the ticket blank or throw in with a different third party before they vote for either Trump or Harris.
concur. that's wishful thinking for republicans. the three i know voting for rfk said they won't vote for either harris or trump. anecdotal but i bet common
They'll vote Trump or stay home. A good chunk will vote Trump. This helps Trump enormously.
Interesting. I was wondering if it was a miss by Kamala not to just hold her nose and add him to some lower level position. Perhaps not, but will be interesting if his supporters tip a state.
all three of these guys i would have assumed they'd go trump. none of them are.
What will you and Aloha say starting in 2026 when Trump is off the ticket and Republicans start getting destroyed as all the Trump only voters stay home? I keep getting told that Trump is the problem and Republicans couldn't lose if they got rid of him.
I think he galvanizes people and it’s a loss for us. A normal republican I believe would beat a radical progressive ticket like Harris/walz with much lower turnout. I don’t believe there is anyone trump can beat. A moderate, intelligent Dem I think will always win going forward
If Biden were still on the ticket, I'd say this would definitely move the needle for Trump and definitely give him a consistent few points lead. That's also when RFK polled much better though too.
But RFK polling has tanked, and while some of that may be voters who wanted anyone but Biden or Trump and switched over to Harris, suggesting she already has her lions share of "RFK" voters already, there is some new polling that says some Republicans who were supporting RFK have done the same when Harris entered, and non-independents left for RFK are evenly split. Independents remaining for RFK is awfully small, but if they all strongly went towards Trump, it def could move the needle enough for him, but more than likely Trump and Harris will split them, maybe Trump getting a little more with it just not mattering because the numbers just arn't there, and also another subset of them throwing away their vote to another 3rd party/write-in or not voting at all.
But RFK polling has tanked, and while some of that may be voters who wanted anyone but Biden or Trump and switched over to Harris, suggesting she already has her lions share of "RFK" voters already, there is some new polling that says some Republicans who were supporting RFK have done the same when Harris entered, and non-independents left for RFK are evenly split. Independents remaining for RFK is awfully small, but if they all strongly went towards Trump, it def could move the needle enough for him, but more than likely Trump and Harris will split them, maybe Trump getting a little more with it just not mattering because the numbers just arn't there, and also another subset of them throwing away their vote to another 3rd party/write-in or not voting at all.
2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States | RealClearPolling
2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States
RCP has Trump's odds at slightly better than 50%.
Obviously it is early and Harris and Walz are getting the typical "OMG Democrats are the awesomest!" push they usually get this time of year from the vast majority of our entertainment world (which includes CNN, MSNBC, ABC news, and yes even Fox, etc.) but that hasn't flipped the polls all that much. Honestly, for as unlikable/unliked as Trump is, having a middle aged black female performing this poorly should cause some nail-biting on the Democrat's side.
