Polls: Senate and House Going in Opposite Directions

[twenty02]

Nate Silver:

At first, I was a little skeptical of the narrative that Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation process could send the House and Senate moving in opposite directions. Usually in politics, a rising tide lifts all boats — so whichever party benefited from the Supreme Court nominee’s confirmation would expect to see its fortunes improve in both its best states and districts and its worst ones.

But a House-Senate split is exactly what we’re seeing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Democratic prospects in the Senate are increasingly dire, having fallen to about 1 in 5. Indeed, it’s been hard to find any good news for Democrats in Senate polling lately. In the House, by contrast, their opportunity is holding up relatively well. In fact, Democrats’ chance of taking the House has ticked back upward to about 4 in 5, having improved slightly from around 3 in 4 immediately after Kavanaugh was confirmed. And while district-by-district House polling has been all over the place lately, Democrats’ position has improved slightly on the generic congressional ballot.​

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-house-and-senate-are-moving-in-opposite-directions/

 

[Rockfish1]

Nate Silver:

At first, I was a little skeptical of the narrative that Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation process could send the House and Senate moving in opposite directions. Usually in politics, a rising tide lifts all boats — so whichever party benefited from the Supreme Court nominee’s confirmation would expect to see its fortunes improve in both its best states and districts and its worst ones.

But a House-Senate split is exactly what we’re seeing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Democratic prospects in the Senate are increasingly dire, having fallen to about 1 in 5. Indeed, it’s been hard to find any good news for Democrats in Senate polling lately. In the House, by contrast, their opportunity is holding up relatively well. In fact, Democrats’ chance of taking the House has ticked back upward to about 4 in 5, having improved slightly from around 3 in 4 immediately after Kavanaugh was confirmed. And while district-by-district House polling has been all over the place lately, Democrats’ position has improved slightly on the generic congressional ballot.​

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-house-and-senate-are-moving-in-opposite-directions/

Democrats have always faced long odds in the Senate, where they're fighting on bad ground. What's happening now is that faint hopes are receding. Meanwhile, Republican operatives seem to be conceding the House, where a blue wave could actually occur. Unless the national story changes, I'll be more interested in state level results.

 

[iuwclurker]

Democrats have always faced long odds in the Senate, where they're fighting on bad ground. What's happening now is that faint hopes are receding. Meanwhile, Republican operatives seem to be conceding the House, where a blue wave could actually occur. Unless the national story changes, I'll be more interested in state level results.

During the run-up to 2016, I remember you and others conceding the House until 2020. Thanks Trump!