Playoff positions: Does it seem crazy to you? top 12, top 4 or even 5-8?

[Army88]

IMO: There is no rational thinking regarding the playoffs:
1. A 13th ranked conference champion could theoretically be given a top 4 BYE
2. A 5th ranked, one loss, non-conference champion, could end up with a 9-12 position and not a home game during first round. Or even miss the playoffs.

Solutions:
1. Poorly ranked conference champions receive automatic bid, but not 1-4, not even 5-8!
2. While maintaining an automatic bid for major conference champions, determine the top spots on merit.

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

IMO: There is no rational thinking regarding the playoffs:
1. A 13th ranked conference champion could theoretically be given a top 4 BYE
2. A 5th ranked, one loss, non-conference champion, could end up with a 9-12 position and not a home game during first round. Or even miss the playoffs.

Solutions:
1. Poorly ranked conference champions receive automatic bid, but not 1-4, not even 5-8!
2. While maintaining an automatic bid for major conference champions, determine the top spots on merit.

A conference champion with the 5th lowest ranking and with a ranking outside the top 12 would receive the 12 seed. The top 4 ranked conference champions would get seeds 1-4.

 

[82hoosier]

Watching the bowl projection shows I have heard statements such as if their jerseys didn’t say Indiana they would be rimranjed second or third in the country. I have also heard prognosticators say that if the Hoosiers played Georgia’s schedule, they would have four losses right now.

Nebraska at 5-4 still has not qualified for a bowl game. Nebraska also is the only team Indiana has played with the winning record. It probably won’t sit right with voters that the Hoosiers paid-off 6-3 Louisville to not play them this year. I think Indiana has to stay within six points of Ohio State to get one of the 12 bids.

Right now Ohio State is a 11.5 point favorite.

 

[Tammany Hall]

No way the committee is thinking about Louisville. We play the same level non-con as many schools.

This year we played the two teams in last year’s national championship game and it’s not our fault they are down. And we still play OSU on top of those two teams. We play in one of the two mega conferences and our schedule just broke as easier than usual.

Right now we are -450 to make the playoff. People seem to think if we play OSU reasonably well we are probably in, though of course you never know for sure.

 

[IUNorth]

No way the committee is thinking about Louisville. We play the same level non-con as many schools.

This year we played the two teams in last year’s national championship game and it’s not our fault they are down. And we still play OSU on top of those two teams. We play in one of the two mega conferences and our schedule just broke as easier than usual.

Right now we are -450 to make the playoff. People seem to think if we play OSU reasonably well we are probably in, though of course you never know for sure.

I think, at this point, IU's performance next Saturday will determine whether they get in or not...more than anything any of the other teams or conferences do.

If they go over there, and are legitimately competitive, even if the margin ends up double digits at the end...I doubt enough other stuff could happen for IU to be left out.

If they go over there, and get destroyed...I actually think its very possible, if not likely, they get left out. I even think, at that point, the committee would strongly consider a 3 loss SEC team, Georgia maybe...or if Ole Miss were to lose to Texas or something like that in the SEC title game...over IU.

There would be vehement arguments over the name on the jersey causing this, why would Penn State get in and not IU, why would Notre Dame get in when they lost to NIllinois...etc... But I think the sentiment that would be left from an IU team getting thumped by the only contending team on their schedule, would be hard to ignore.

Good thing is, I can't fathom this team getting thumped, by anyone.

 

[olympian97]

A conference champion rated lower than 13 possibly could get a 1st round bye, but it would be really tough. That means 2 of the top 5 conference champions are ranked outside the top 13. If the season ended this past weekend then both of Boise st, and BYU would have to lose the conference championship game. Mountain West has no one else in the Top 25 which means army (24) or Tulane (25) would get the 5th spot out of the AAC. If CO or KSU wins the B12 over BYU that would be a 16 and 17th ranked team that would have to move up at least 5 spots in the final rankings to be in the top 12. I am pretty sure the ACC will be either Miami or SMU and since SMU is ranked 13 it is almost a guarantee they would swap places with Miami in the final rankings if they win the conference. So, B1G, SEC, and ACC are pretty locked in to a top 12 spot. So, the favored team in both the BIG 12 and MW have to lose for that 4th spot to have a chance of of a conference champ being ranked outside the top 12 and even then I think the committee would bump the champ into the final top 12 anyways. So, imo chances that a team ranked 13 or lower gets a first round bye is slim to none. At least for this year.

 

[Tammany Hall]

I think, at this point, IU's performance next Saturday will determine whether they get in or not...more than anything any of the other teams or conferences do.

If they go over there, and are legitimately competitive, even if the margin ends up double digits at the end...I doubt enough other stuff could happen for IU to be left out.

If they go over there, and get destroyed...I actually think its very possible, if not likely, they get left out. I even think, at that point, the committee would strongly consider a 3 loss SEC team, Georgia maybe...or if Ole Miss were to lose to Texas or something like that in the SEC title game...over IU.

There would be vehement arguments over the name on the jersey causing this, why would Penn State get in and not IU, why would Notre Dame get in when they lost to NIllinois...etc... But I think the sentiment that would be left from an IU team getting thumped by the only contending team on their schedule, would be hard to ignore.

Good thing is, I can't fathom this team getting thumped, by anyone.

Agree. If for some reason our team just slams into its ceiling vs OSU and we lose by 21 or something like that, we have a serious issue and it gets much harder to argue we can compete in the playoff. It gets easy to argue a team with more loses, but with win(s) vs contending team(s), should be in. At the point, we need some luck.

 

[IUNorth]

Agree. If for some reason our team just slams into its ceiling vs OSU and we lose by 21 or something like that, we have a serious issue and it gets much harder to argue we can compete in the playoff. It gets easy to argue a team with more loses, but with win(s) vs contending team(s), should be in. At the point, we need some luck.

BYU winning out would help. ND losing again would help. PSU losing again would help. And then any of the current 1 or 2 loss SEC teams losing again would help.

If enough of those things happen, THEN I think its possible that IU is in even if they get destroyed in Columbus.

But I think its more likely than not that BYU doesn't win out, and that ND and PSU do win out, and there will be enough SEC teams in the discussion, that it will get very iffy if IU looks bad in Columbus. Even if we 63-0 Purdue the following week. That Purdue game could end up having an impact too...obviously have to win the game. But if we do lose by 15-20 in Columbus, and look shaky... A shaky win over Purdue then could hurt us.

 

[CC Mac]

They expand the playoffs to 12 teams to include more playoff worthy teams but turn right around and create more controversy with this seeding system.
The 4 byes should go to the top 4 teams,it’s not rocket science.
If they are all from the same conference then so be it.
The NCAA feels the need to overthink everything,just seed the 12 according to their ranking,it’s not that hard.

 

[IUNorth]

Most have focused discussions thus far on what happens to IU with a loss in Columbus...

What happens to our ranking if we win in Columbus? If we handle them and win by double digits??

If we thump them, in Columbus, that would have to justify all the other beat downs we've given, and we'd vault to number 1...no???

 

[red hornet]

THIS ^^^^

 

[kkott]

A conference champion with the 5th lowest ranking and with a ranking outside the top 12 would receive the 12 seed. The top 4 ranked conference champions would get seeds 1-4.

I'm not knowledgeable, but I don't really understand why a conference champion even automatically gets the bye. Especially in this case since we can talk specifically about BYU. Sounds like they should have lost to Utah and where does the B12 rank in comparison to the SEC and B10? I'd just rather have byes go to the 4 highest rated teams, but I guess they want to reward conference champions and maybe a concession that had to be made to get the deal done.

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

I'm not knowledgeable, but I don't really understand why a conference champion even automatically gets the bye. Especially in this case since we can talk specifically about BYU. Sounds like they should have lost to Utah and where does the B12 rank in comparison to the SEC and B10? I'd just rather have byes go to the 4 highest rated teams, but I guess they want to reward conference champions and maybe a concession that had to be made to get the deal done.

I think you have to be able to play your way in. That has been my biggest gripe about the playoffs before. It’s not a perfect system for sure but at least every team has a shot.

 

[iu2win]

In any other year, if IU had played their usual schedule and lost 2 of the three (OSU, PSU, and Mich) would the committee put IU in the playoff at 10-2. IU would be heading to a very good bowl but would not get a playoff mention in that scenario. The fact the SEC has beat up on each other should not be an excuse for valuing 2 loss teams let alone any with 3 losses. Parity is a good thing but the fact no one SEC team has been able to dominate can also be seen as questionable in terms of the strength of a given team. All of the SEC talking heads assume the SEC is The Best conference due to past history of Bama, GA, Tenn, etc. The avid college football fan from any other conference can easily see that Alabama is not on their usual level, GA is inconsistent in ways they generally are not, and TN fans can only see things from their perch on Rocky Top, looking down their noses at everyone else. If IU gets blown out in Columbus, I can see the committee leaving IU out of the playoff. However, if IU competes with OSU In Columbus it will prove IU can compete with the top dogs and should be included in the playoff with similar consideration to those losing games in the SEC.

 

[Tammany Hall]

Most have focused discussions thus far on what happens to IU with a loss in Columbus...

What happens to our ranking if we win in Columbus? If we handle them and win by double digits??

If we thump them, in Columbus, that would have to justify all the other beat downs we've given, and we'd vault to number 1...no???

Ha, any win at OSU would be better than a one point win vs OSU at home. So... vbg.

 

[kkott]

In any other year, if IU had played their usual schedule and lost 2 of the three (OSU, PSU, and Mich) would the committee put IU in the playoff at 10-2. IU would be heading to a very good bowl but would not get a playoff mention in that scenario. The fact the SEC has beat up on each other should not be an excuse for valuing 2 loss teams let alone any with 3 losses. Parity is a good thing but the fact no one SEC team has been able to dominate can also be seen as questionable in terms of the strength of a given team. All of the SEC talking heads assume the SEC is The Best conference due to past history of Bama, GA, Tenn, etc. The avid college football fan from any other conference can easily see that Alabama is not on their usual level, GA is inconsistent in ways they generally are not, and TN fans can only see things from their perch on Rocky Top, looking down their noses at everyone else. If IU gets blown out in Columbus, I can see the committee leaving IU out of the playoff. However, if IU competes with OSU In Columbus it will prove IU can compete with the top dogs and should be included in the playoff with similar consideration to those losing games in the SEC.

Just my old IU soul, but I have been thinking all along, due to our history and reputation in football, we better not leave any room for the committee to make a decision about us, or we'll be on the outside. I'd agree, right now, if we lose but make a respectable single digit loss showing, I think we'll be in, but if it's a blowout in Cbus... we better not let them have that chance.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

I'm still firmly in the camp that as long as we are competitive in Columbus, and I believe we can win there, then we make the CFP at 11-1. Getting our doors blown off changes everything though, and that also opens us up to the being firmly on the bubble.

The worst scenario left that IU can't control is BYU going 12-0 and losing a close B12 championship game, PLUS SMU beating Miami in the ACC championship game. Would a 12-1 BYU team with a win over ACC champ SMU make it over an 11-1 IU with a bad loss at O$U? I don't like thinking about that one as we need the B12 to remain a 1 bid league. The SEC is gonna SEC over the next few weeks and more losses are coming for teams in the mix. I think it sorts itself out in the end, but TX A&M would be the ultimate spoiler if they win out. TN beating GA would be nice, and really any of the other 2 loss teams losing a game would help. They'd all require upsets as they're all favored in the rest of their games. Army or USC upsetting ND would be extremely helpful. Penn St losing in Minny would be great as well. I don't expect either team to lose another game though.

While winning next weekend is the goal, and expectation in the locker room, just being competitive will be enough to make the CFP regardless of how all the above scenarios play out over the coming weeks.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

They expand the playoffs to 12 teams to include more playoff worthy teams but turn right around and create more controversy with this seeding system.
The 4 byes should go to the top 4 teams,it’s not rocket science.
If they are all from the same conference then so be it.
The NCAA feels the need to overthink everything,just seed the 12 according to their ranking,it’s not that hard.

The NCAA has nothing to do with the CFP.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

I'm not knowledgeable, but I don't really understand why a conference champion even automatically gets the bye. Especially in this case since we can talk specifically about BYU. Sounds like they should have lost to Utah and where does the B12 rank in comparison to the SEC and B10? I'd just rather have byes go to the 4 highest rated teams, but I guess they want to reward conference champions and maybe a concession that had to be made to get the deal done.

I believe it was a negotiating chip to get everyone on the same page to adopt a larger playoff. I expect it to change in the next 5 years or so (the byes).

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

If it was all up to Paul Fine”bum”, he’d have the entire SEC making up all 12 teams in the CFP bracket and then the racist Stephen A. Smith would have the entire slate with any non-white head coach.

 

[raar2]

> if their jerseys didn’t say Indiana they would be,,,, >if the Hoosiers played Georgia’s schedule, they would have four losses right now. >Indiana has to stay within six points of Ohio State to get one of the 12 bids.

> and if Alabama, Tenn, Texas, Notre Dame etc , played IU's schedule, they'd also be 10-0.
(and they'd also be ranked # 1 )

IMO the expectation is that those long-time powerhouse programs have the horses. IU, a perennial cellar-dweller, with a team cobbled together like Frankenstein's monster, is still an unknown commodity.

SOLUTION:

Just win baby!

 

[mobilehoosier]

Great thread. We have far exceeded any expectations this year. I hope we beat their ass next week but if we lose by a bunch, who gives a shit? We are either good enough or we are not. Pretty sure we are 11-1 regardless. Unreal. Sure would love to end the OSU drought, totally screw the ranking as our win there would be better than Oregon's at home and go for the B1G championship. If you look at Oregon's schedule and take out OSU, they look like us. Also read something that #3 Texas has a losing record schedule but crickets because people are used to them being good and not us. Go Hoosiers! Can't wait for OSU. I hope we prove it.

 

[IUNorth]

> and if Alabama, Tenn, Texas, Notre Dame etc , played IU's schedule, they'd also be 10-0.
(and they'd also be ranked # 1 )

IMO the expectation is that those long-time powerhouse programs have the horses. IU, a perennial cellar-dweller, with a team cobbled together like Frankenstein's monster, is still an unknown commodity.

SOLUTION:

Just win baby!

No one should make that claim for ND, obviously, as they lost at home to an average low major NIU team. And with Bama and Tennessee, they have losses to Vandy and Arkansas, respectively. Those teams would probably have winning records in the B10, to be fair. And I don't think IU has probably beaten anyone as good as either of them, on the road, but they have beaten THE HELL out of teams like UCLA and MSU, on the road, both overall decent teams. Texas is the only one from that group that I'd confidently say would be 10-0 with IU's schedule.

The un answerable question though, would any/all of those SEC teams have won all those games as convincingly as IU did? And what would IU's record be if they played each of their schedules. I would say if IU played ND's schedule, they'd be 10-0. But SEC schedule? I think we'll get a much better idea on that next weekend. There isn't a more difficult game the SEC teams could produce, than at Ohio State.