North Korea

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

You have a case of selective memory. You always do on these matters because the idea that Democrats are also hypocrites obviously bothers you. I also didn’t intend to say liberals are slightly worse at hypocrisy. Hypocrisy is a trait shared by politicians all over the spectrum.

Then find me some examples. I've gone back and read some old articles on Obama's comments. He's criticized from both sides for them. Sure, he was able to trot out a few supporters of his campaign to defend what he said, but for the most part, people on both sides of the aisle were critical. And, of course, after he was elected, he recognized the error of his ways, and shifted his stance accordingly.

 

[MonroeCity]

I do agree with that. I would hope that was worked out last week when the envoy was here. I think my point is there is so much to workout that I don't expect anything buy a vague statement from the summit. I cannot imagine they can hammer out anything concrete or even close to concrete in one summit.

If I had to guess I would say you are right. There just doesn't seem to have been enough time for a detailed agreement. I also hope the terminology was agreed to when the envoy was here. If we do get something vague I hope it's a statement and not an "agreement"

 

[MonroeCity]

There is a lot of items to discuss. For example, they have thousands of nuclear and rocket scientists. In theory, they need to be moved out of North Korea to be really denuclearized.

Another thing that should be discussed is North Korea' prison camps. We need to put pressure on them to allow access from someone like the International Committee of the Red Cross. They have long been denied access to the political prison camps by the North Korean government. In fact, we should probably request their access before the summit.

 

[zeke4ahs]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-trump-doing-to-prepare-for-the-north-korea-summit/
This is certainly encouraging. " I think I'm very well prepared. I don't have to prepare. It's all about attitude. "

 

[sglowrider]

The headline today/tonight is that he also said that 'it should be the G8 and not the G7 to re-invite Russia back into the group.'

If Russia, an economy that is the size of Italy get back in, why not invite China since its only the 2nd largest economy in the world -- if democratic norms isnt an issue like annexing Crimea.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I am reading Brothers at War that Aloha had recently read. There is an interesting segment that can explain the fear of the meeting.

North Korea demanded from us for return of the Pueblo crew a signed statement that we were spying on them, that we were sorry and would stop. We were allowed to announce to the world as we were signing it that we only were signing to get the crew back and meant nothing by the signing.

Kim did not care what the world thought, he wanted it for internal consumption. He was worried about a revolt, he wanted his people to see him as a leader that even the Americans were afraid of.

Kim seemed to believe his people were indoctrinated to Marxism and his anti-American success would win them over to him even more.

We should meet, but desktop pictures may have more of a value than we know. The grandson may need to prove he is as tough as his grandfather for domestic reasons.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

I am reading Brothers at War that Aloha had recently read. There is an interesting segment that can explain the fear of the meeting.

North Korea demanded from us for return of the Pueblo crew a signed statement that we were spying on them, that we were sorry and would stop. We were allowed to announce to the world as we were signing it that we only were signing to get the crew back and meant nothing by the signing.

Kim did not care what the world thought, he wanted it for internal consumption. He was worried about a revolt, he wanted his people to see him as a leader that even the Americans were afraid of.

Kim seemed to believe his people were indoctrinated to Marxism and his anti-American success would win them over to him even more.

We should meet, but desktop pictures may have more of a value than we know. The grandson may need to prove he is as tough as his grandfather for domestic reasons.

That was an interesting part of the book. It was a good book in my opinion. It was much more than just the war which was covered extremely well in "This Kind of War." I found myself comparing my experiences in South Korea from 1988 through the present and comparing it to what was said in the book and it was dead on.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

I am reading Brothers at War that Aloha had recently read. There is an interesting segment that can explain the fear of the meeting.

North Korea demanded from us for return of the Pueblo crew a signed statement that we were spying on them, that we were sorry and would stop. We were allowed to announce to the world as we were signing it that we only were signing to get the crew back and meant nothing by the signing.

Kim did not care what the world thought, he wanted it for internal consumption. He was worried about a revolt, he wanted his people to see him as a leader that even the Americans were afraid of.

Kim seemed to believe his people were indoctrinated to Marxism and his anti-American success would win them over to him even more.

We should meet, but desktop pictures may have more of a value than we know. The grandson may need to prove he is as tough as his grandfather for domestic reasons.

Also, the part about basically preparing the North Korean people to believe that the current Kim might be kind of the reincarnation of his grandfather was interesting as well.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

That was an interesting part of the book. It was a good book in my opinion. It was much more than just the war which was covered extremely well in "This Kind of War." I found myself comparing my experiences in South Korea from 1988 through the present and comparing it to what was said in the book and it was dead on.

I agree, the war is well covered in other books (Halberstam's is also very good). But the post war period is very intersting..

Kim the eldest burned bridges with both China and the USSR. Makes me wonder if China has the influence we think.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

I agree, the war is well covered in other books (Halberstam's is also very good). But the post war period is very intersting..

Kim the eldest burned bridges with both China and the USSR. Makes me wonder if China has the influence we think.

They obviously have economic leverage to use to influence NK. It's going to boil down to how they want to use that leverage. Their biggest concern is the collapse of NK - which is also near the top of South Korea's list of concerns, after possible nuclear or conventional attacks from NK.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

They obviously have economic leverage to use to influence NK. It's going to boil down to how they want to use that leverage. Their biggest concern is the collapse of NK - which is also near the top of South Korea's list of concerns, after possible nuclear or conventional attacks from NK.

Yes China has economic leverage bit can only use it so far. They will deal with crazy Kim's gladly over a pro-western state.

The original Kim bought into the easier to ask forgiveness than beg for permission . We will see if the new Kim is different. My guess is that no Kim can be seen as weak. Once a crack appears all the Kim's horses and all the Kim's men won't be able to save his life.

 

[sglowrider]

Yes China has economic leverage bit can only use it so far. They will deal with crazy Kim's gladly over a pro-western state.

The original Kim bought into the easier to ask forgiveness than beg for permission . We will see if the new Kim is different. My guess is that no Kim can be seen as weak. Once a crack appears all the Kim's horses and all the Kim's men won't be able to save his life.

As in the past 45 years, China is still North Korea's umbilical cord. That hasnt changed.

What has changed has been the purposes of the respective NK leaders -- for an evolving China.

Il Sung was Mao's buffer to its flanks. Jung-Un offers a more complex problem. A far richer China's goals have evolved from military or political to a more economic perspective.
China's goals are basically to ensure regional stability -- they need to create 13+ million jobs annually with seven million university graduates entering the workforce. They don't need or will allow any upheavals to jeopardize that delicate, and difficult objective to avoid any internal strife or rumblings.

 

[sglowrider]

Yes China has economic leverage bit can only use it so far. They will deal with crazy Kim's gladly over a pro-western state.

The original Kim bought into the easier to ask forgiveness than beg for permission . We will see if the new Kim is different. My guess is that no Kim can be seen as weak. Once a crack appears all the Kim's horses and all the Kim's men won't be able to save his life.

I think with this Summit, Kim will feel more confident than ever in his lifetime or in the last 45 years of the nation's history. Its like a nerd/social outcast at HS being invited to the prom by the Prom Queen now.
He has arrived.

His people are already delirious at this stage, pre-Summit. They have had the American '#2 guy' in their home already -- which was why NK reciprocated by sending Kim's actual right hand man. Their patriotism and ethnocentricity will take they a long way including more sacrifices to the country and Kim if needed.

This enables him to come in from a strong bargaining position.

Trump, on the other hand, is coming in with people thinking he will botch-up this opportunity. Its good for Trump politically, since the expectations will be set low on his part. But he still has the Iran Deal as a benchmark to adhere to if folks are paying attention. But regardless, Trump will sell himself as the winner out of this Summit.

 

[MonroeCity]

Once both sides agree on What will be constrained and eliminated (the goal should be CVID), there must be settlement on linkages and sequencing of responsibilities, as well as the timelines under which they will be carried out. There should be agreement on concise timelines for expedited rather than protracted implementation.
In my opinion, theses are the top 2 things that could come out of the summit.
Agreement on the terminology of denuclearization and a map on how to get there.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Once both sides agree on What will be constrained and eliminated (the goal should be CVID), there must be settlement on linkages and sequencing of responsibilities, as well as the timelines under which they will be carried out. There should be agreement on concise timelines for expedited rather than protracted implementation.
In my opinion, theses are the top 2 things that could come out of the summit.
Agreement on the terminology of denuclearization and a map on how to get there.

Should chemical and biological weapons be included in the discussions? I am less concerned about chemical, but I can't see a purpose of getting rid of nukes and leaving biological.

 

[MonroeCity]

Should chemical and biological weapons be included in the discussions? I am less concerned about chemical, but I can't see a purpose of getting rid of nukes and leaving biological.

Yes, those types of weapons should be up for discussion, along with the political prison camps.
I definitely see a purpose in getting rid of nukes.

 

[sglowrider]

Yes, those types of weapons should be up for discussion, along with the political prison camps.
I definitely see a purpose in getting rid of nukes.

The human rights component will be too much to bite at one go.


This is Trump's (minimum) baseline:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal_framework

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Yes, those types of weapons should be up for discussion, along with the political prison camps.
I definitely see a purpose in getting rid of nukes.

Getting rid of the nukes is good but if we get rid of the nukes, they keep and expand their bio weapons and get rid of their sanctions, we have lost ground (imho). To rejoin the world as a non-rogue state, bio weapons have to go. I'd prefer chemical weapons also be eliminated, but at some point we will need to make a call on what is the most we can reasonably expect.