N Y Times: Deflating Deflategate, the evidence & methodology of the Wells report is deeply flawed

outside shooter

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now the judge directing questions at Brady & the NFLPA

About the phone:
Kessler: "He gets phones all the time! Whenever he gets one, he gives (the old one) to his assistant and says "get rid of the phone!"

about the texts: Kessler cites Brady's privacy, cites how his emails are now posted on the web and an email dispute with a vendor over a pool cover made national news.

Michael McCann ‏@McCannSportsLaw 9m9 minutes ago

Stephen Brown @PPVSRB
Kessler: After all this money, all this investigation, he couldn’t get beyond…at least he was generally aware something may have happened."

Kessler astutely opens door for Brady to accept settlement where he accepts blame for not being cooperative enough:
Michael McCann added,
Stephen Brown @PPVSRB
But Kessler concedes Brady should have conducted himself differently with Wells.

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 1m1 minute agoNew York, USA
Court is adjourned. Not clear if there is going to be anything more on the record. I think that went well for Brady.

Michael McCann ‏@McCannSportsLaw 2m2 minutes ago
If today was the 1st quarter in Tom Brady v. NFL, Brady might actually get some rest in the 4th. A good day for him.

Mike Loyko ‏@NEPD_Loyko 22s22 seconds ago
.@AdamSchefter and Sall said "Berman told the NFL that they better come to grips that a settlement in favor of the NFLPA is very possible"



@PatriotsInform: Wow, Sal Pal already saying that he thinks this will be 0 for 5 for the NFL in its legal cases. Bold statement.

On Sportscenter right now- Schefter and Sal Pal said the hearings were a big win for Brady. Schefter was inside the courtroom.

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter 14m14 minutes ago
Attorney Jeff Kessler admitted Tom Brady could have handled cell phone differently. But said it's "most overblown issue in 40 years of law."






 

The one and only ACE

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"It is unlikely the Patriots illegally deflated their footballs"

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/06/14/opinion/deflating-deflategate.html?smid=tw-share&_r=3&referrer=
Hey Goat....how bout a wager his suspension gets reduced?


New York Times

BEFORE “Deflategate,” the National Football League’s most recent controversy, there was “Bountygate,” in which New Orleans Saints officials were accused of offering bonuses to Saints players who injured members of opposing teams — a policy alleged to have been in place from 2009 to 2011. Initially, several Saints officials and players were penalized by the N.F.L.

In 2012, however, we published an analysis of N.F.L. injury data that found that the Saints injured fewer opposing players than all but two teams did in 2009, and fewer than all but one team did from 2009 to 2011. Even if Saints officials offered “bounties,” there was no good evidence that Saints players were influenced by them.

We presented our findings at an N.F.L. hearing in November 2012. The next month, the N.F.L. vacated all the players’ suspensions.

Considering that our impartiality was at least implicitly recognized by the N.F.L. in the past, we believe that our analysis of the evidence in Deflategate, in a studyreleased Friday by the American Enterprise Institute, could help resolve this latest controversy.

Deflategate is a dispute about whether the New England Patriots used deliberately underinflated footballs in their playoff victory over the Indianapolis Colts in January. (Each N.F.L. team provides its own footballs when on offense, and an underinflated football may be easier to handle in cold or wet conditions.)

The N.F.L. commissioned a study, known as the Wells report, that concluded that it was “more probable than not” that Patriots personnel deliberately violated the rules and that Tom Brady, the Patriots quarterback, was aware of it. Following the release of the Wells report last month, the N.F.L. penalized the Patriots organization and suspended Mr. Brady for four games.

Our study, written with our colleague Joseph Sullivan, examines the evidence and methodology of the Wells report and concludes that it is deeply flawed. (We have no financial stake in the outcome of Deflategate.)

The Wells report’s main finding is that the Patriots balls declined in pressure more than the Colts balls did in the first half of their game, and that the decline is highly statistically significant. For the sake of argument, let’s grant this finding for now. Even still, it alone does not prove misconduct. There are, after all, two possibilities. The first is that the Patriots balls declined too much. The second — overlooked by the Wells report — is that the Colts balls declined too little.

The latter possibility appears to be more likely. The Wells report notes the expected pressure for the footballs at halftime in the Patriots-Colts game, factoring in the decline in pressure to be expected when a ball, inflated in a warm room, has been moved to a cold outdoor field. If the Patriots deflated their balls, their pressure levels at halftime should have fallen below the expected level, while the Colts balls at halftime should have hovered around that level.

But when we analyzed the data provided in the Wells report, we found that the Patriots balls declined by about the expected amount, while the Colts balls declined by less. In fact, the pressure of the Colts balls was statistically significantly higherthan expected. Contrary to the report, the significant difference between the changes in pressure of the two teams’ balls was not because the pressure of the Patriots balls was too low, but because that of the Colts balls was too high.

How could this be? The report’s own findings suggest an explanation: At halftime, N.F.L. officials measured the pressure of “only a sample” of the Colts balls (four out of 12) before they ran out of time; the second half of the game was about to begin. This implies that the Colts balls sat in the warm room where they were to be measured — and thus increased in pressure — for almost the entirety of halftime before being measured.
All of the 11 available Patriots balls, by contrast, were measured at halftime, which suggests that they were measured earlier, when they were colder — and thus lower in pressure. Although this explanation contradicts the Wells report’s conclusions, it fits all the evidence.

There are other factors discussed in our study that undermine support for the Wells report’s conclusions. For example, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the actual pressure of the footballs. The N.F.L. official who checked the pressure before the game used some combination of two pressure gauges to measure the Patriots and Colts balls, but it is not known which particular combination.
One of the gauges, as the report notes, records pressures that are higher than the other. If the official used that gauge to measure the Patriots balls (but not the Colts balls) pregame, then those balls may well have started out with too little air, which could explain a later appearance of intentional deflation. The report, however, does not consider that possibility.

Our recommendation? When the N.F.L. hears Mr. Brady’s appeal of his suspension later this month, it should proceed with the knowledge that the Wells report is unreliable.Kevin A. Hassett is the director of economic studies, and Stan A. Veuger is a resident scholar, at the American Enterprise Institute

Before joining AEI, Dr. Hassett was a senior economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and an associate professor of economics and finance at Columbia (University) Business School. He served as a policy consultant to the US Department of the Treasury during the George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations.

Before joining AEI, Dr. Veuger was a teaching fellow at Harvard University and Universitat Pompeu Fabra. He was a 2012-2013 National Review Institute Washington Fellow, and he is a board member of The Altius Society and of the Washington, D.C. chapter of the Netherland-American Foundation. He is a graduate of Utrecht University and Erasmus University Rotterdam, and holds an M.Sc. in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra, as well as A.M. and Ph.D. degrees, also in Economics, from Harvard University.




Intelligent people are finally attempting to make the ignorant masses understand that they have been duped for months now
 

TheOriginalHappyGoat

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I spent about five minutes reading up on the hearing, because that's all I could handle without throwing up. It looks like the judge didn't really tip his hand. He grilled both sides. He seems to be absolutely furious that he's even dealing with this. The best thing for both sides would be to reach some kind of settlement, because there is too much risk for both sides to take this to trial. The judge could rule 100% in favor of the NFL, or go the complete other direction. Both sides are risking a very adverse result if they don't settle.

If I were a lawyer for either side, I'd probably try to convince them to settle on a 2 game suspension, and consider that a victory.
 

zeke4ahs

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Moops has a right to post here.
You know the trial doesn't really matter to the public. His reputation and that of the Patriots , as cheaters, has already been determined. This debacle will always be a part of his legacy. ps...Can you tell me why he travels with his rings? And why was Giselle not with him on the private jet??
 
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outside shooter

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I spent about five minutes reading up on the hearing, because that's all I could handle without throwing up. It looks like the judge didn't really tip his hand. He grilled both sides. He seems to be absolutely furious that he's even dealing with this. The best thing for both sides would be to reach some kind of settlement, because there is too much risk for both sides to take this to trial. The judge could rule 100% in favor of the NFL, or go the complete other direction. Both sides are risking a very adverse result if they don't settle.

If I were a lawyer for either side, I'd probably try to convince them to settle on a 2 game suspension, and consider that a victory.
Most legal experts were stunned that the Judge spent 80% of his time and questions on the lack of evidence of wrongdoing and reminding the NFL that he is looking for (and is not seeing evidence for) the existence of a conspiracy and planned wrongdoing, specifically for the January 18 game. The legal experts expected 100% focus on the PROCEDURES for the fine & appeal.

The judge also kept shooting down the NFL lawyers for getting into the ball boy texts from the previous May, as they were in his mind irrelevant to January 18th. He made the NFL admit that they had no direct evidence of ANY wrongdoing and no direct evidence of ANYTHING ILLEGAL requested by Brady on that day, or for any day prior, for that matter. The judge even laughed about some of the NFL's answers "Is that all?" , put "air quotes" around the word "independent" in describing the Wells investigation. He even brought up, unprovoked, Brady's great 2nd half, saying that even if something happened in the first half, the plan was apparently irrelevant and/or had failed.

Today we found out why the judge was so tough on the NFL. They had made no efforts to settle: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ment-demands-before-wednesdays-court-session/

The NFL's best settlement offer was "Brady, admit that you ordered it done (that you have committed perjury), accept the Wells report and its conclusions in their entirety, apologize for your wrongdoings, then ask us very nicely with pretty-please and sugar on top to reduce your sentence a little. We may do it, but we may not. Our way or nothing."

Thus the judge can see that the NFL office is made of arrogant a-holes that won't even listen to HIM when he asks for compromise.

The judge went easy on Brady's lawyer, since he so willingly offered up a concession right off the bat, that TB indeed should have/ could have been more cooperative with Wells. Thus a fine for lack of cooperation is the NFLPA's compromise position as TB's punishment, not for wrongdoing, but for not fully cooperating. You may say that this is isn't much of a concession, but it's a whole hell of a lot more ground than the NFL was willing to budge on.

All in all, the judge seems willing to consider over-reliance upon flimsy evidence of wrongdoing as an element of arbitrary and capricious behavior on Goodell's part, and that is HUGE development. The scientific aspects on naturally-driven football depressurization have always been firmly in the Brady ledger, so if the judge is (surprisingly) interested in that, Goodell is shaking and/or updating his CV.
 

TheOriginalHappyGoat

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Most legal experts were stunned that the Judge spent 80% of his time and questions on the lack of evidence of wrongdoing and reminding the NFL that he is looking for (and is not seeing evidence for) the existence of a conspiracy and planned wrongdoing, specifically for the January 18 game. The legal experts expected 100% focus on the PROCEDURES for the fine & appeal.

The judge also kept shooting down the NFL lawyers for getting into the ball boy texts from the previous May, as they were in his mind irrelevant to January 18th. He made the NFL admit that they had no direct evidence of ANY wrongdoing and no direct evidence of ANYTHING ILLEGAL requested by Brady on that day, or for any day prior, for that matter. The judge even laughed about some of the NFL's answers "Is that all?" , put "air quotes" around the word "independent" in describing the Wells investigation. He even brought up, unprovoked, Brady's great 2nd half, saying that even if something happened in the first half, the plan was apparently irrelevant and/or had failed.

Today we found out why the judge was so tough on the NFL. They had made no efforts to settle: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ment-demands-before-wednesdays-court-session/

The NFL's best settlement offer was "Brady, admit that you ordered it done (that you have committed perjury), accept the Wells report and its conclusions in their entirety, apologize for your wrongdoings, then ask us very nicely with pretty-please and sugar on top to reduce your sentence a little. We may do it, but we may not. Our way or nothing."

Thus the judge can see that the NFL office is made of arrogant a-holes that won't even listen to HIM when he asks for compromise.

The judge went easy on Brady's lawyer, since he so willingly offered up a concession right off the bat, that TB indeed should have/ could have been more cooperative with Wells. Thus a fine for lack of cooperation is the NFLPA's compromise position as TB's punishment, not for wrongdoing, but for not fully cooperating. You may say that this is isn't much of a concession, but it's a whole hell of a lot more ground than the NFL was willing to budge on.

All in all, the judge seems willing to consider over-reliance upon flimsy evidence of wrongdoing as an element of arbitrary and capricious behavior on Goodell's part, and that is HUGE development. The scientific aspects on naturally-driven football depressurization have always been firmly in the Brady ledger, so if the judge is (surprisingly) interested in that, Goodell is shaking and/or updating his CV.
This post is not accurate.
 
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hoosierdug

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Judge Berman: "What is the evidence of a scheme or conspiracy that covers the Jan. 15 game? I’m having trouble finding it."

https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=PPVSRB&original_referer=http://nbc-sports.massrel.io/court-timeline/index.html#cfg=curl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.csnne.com%2Fnew-england-patriots%2Flive-reports-judge-bermans-court-room-brady-hearing&parent=www.csnne.com&vph=955&space-id=nbc-sports%2Fcourt-timeline


Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB nowMassapequa Park, NY
Berman: I don't know what to make of that finding Tom Brady was "at least generally aware of the activities of" Mcnally, Jastremski.

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 12s
Berman: I’m trying to figure out what is the direct evidence that implicates Mr. Brady in that deflation…in that bathroom…on Jan. 18

Michael McCann ‏@McCannSportsLaw 7m7 minutes ago
Very telling Judge Berman's asking Qs about (lack of) evidence rather than application of CBA. These Qs favor Brady.

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 6s6 seconds agoMassapequa Park, NY

BERMAN: "If somebody deflated the balls, but it didn’t help Mr. Brady, does that matter?"

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 27s27 seconds agoMassapequa Park, NY
Berman: From legal perspective: "You have to show that conspirators intended to be in the conspiracy...Is there a meeting?"

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 55s55 seconds agoMassapequa Park, NY
Berman: "I’m not sure where the 'gate' (in #DeflateGate) comes from. The Wells Report and the award relates only to one game."
Ok, I have to respond. If you really believe that those 2 guys just went out on their own and took it upon themselves to deflate the balls, well,............ Oh forget it. You are that insane/stupid. And then there's this....
http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...iots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007
But it had no affect and Brady knew nothing of it even though those stats just happen to coincide with the rule change. I'll say it for the millionth time, Edelman would've never completed that pass without the underinflated balls they were undoubtedly using. Don't bother responding. ICGAFFWYT.
 
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outside shooter

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LOL, the fumble truthers. Lies in the opening sentence! The rule changed before the 2006 season, when the Patriots fumble rate SKYROCKETED. They shift the reference frame to 2007, when their fumble rate went way down, in the SECOND year of the new rules.

The Colts have fumbled LESS than the Patriots have FOUR TIMES in the last nine years, 4 of the 8 years where they TRIED.

The Patriots do not even lead the league in fewest fumbles since the rule, just in fewest fumbles LOST. They have to pick and choose what stat to use and fudge the date when it began!
 

outside shooter

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Attorney Alan Milstein, who has litigated against the NFL and tried cases before Judge Berman, told SI.com Wednesday night:

“After what we heard today, I think Judge Berman will absolutely vacate Brady's suspension.”
 

outside shooter

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CNN-SI legal analyst:

There comes a point in any litigation when there is no turning back, when no settlement can be reached. It’s the moment when both sides are resigned to taking their chances with the judge or jury. Until then, they often wage all-out war. If Tom Brady and Roger Goodell fail to reach a settlement in their case, Friday will probably be remembered as the day when the point of no return was crossed and when the gloves truly came off.

In a seething memorandum filed to U.S. District Judge Richard Berman Friday night, attorneys for Brady ridiculed Goodell as incompetent and dishonest.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/08/14/tom-brady-filing-roger-goodell-deflategate-federal-case-analysis
 

outside shooter

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Mystery Douchebag, always current with those 3-4 MONTH OLD articles,

before a Judge went and released the transcripts and the wheels fell off the Propaganda bus!

I guess news moves slowly for the Indy Quim contingent.

How's that run defense?
 
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outside shooter

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the NFL was totally raked over the coals by the federal judge:


Bob McGovern @BobMcGovernJr
As a legal observer: Today was more of a blowout than the AFC Title. Kessler (Brady lawyer) all but dropped the mic at the end.

Ben Volin @BenVolin
UPDATE: Hearing over after 2:15. No settlement. Judge Berman was very, very critical of NFL. Brady/NFLPA are making a good case

Daniel Wallach‏@WALLACHLEGAL
Judge Berman: "I have a little trouble with [Goodell deciding on four games]," via @tomecurran (at court)

Ben Volin ‏@BenVolin 5s6 seconds ago
Not only did Berman grill the NFL, but he made observations on his own that boosted the credibility of NFLPA argument. Not good for NFL

daniel kaplan @dkaplanSBJ
Judge Berman called it a quantum leap going from brady being generally aware in wells report to goodell decision there was a scheme

Dan Wetzel ‏@DanWetzel 2m2 minutes ago
Tweets don't do it justice but at one point Judge Berman asked Kessler to read positive Brady testimony into the record. Just one example.

Bob McGovern ‏@BobMcGovernJr 3m3 minutes ago
The NFL argued that you could infer that Wells was referring to the AFC Title, but Judge Berman wasn't convinced.

Max Stendahl ‏@MaxLaw360 4m4 minutes ago
Berman on Goodell's steroid comparison: "His explanation about steroid use in my mind only raised more questions than it answered."

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 4m4 minutes agoManhattan, NY
Berman: "There is a bit of a quantum leap from the finding of Mr. Wells to the finding of Mr. Goodell." (from general awareness to scheme)

Lindsey AdlerVerified account‏@Lahlahlindsey
Sick burn from Brady's attorney today


Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 9m9 minutes agoManhattan, NY
#Deflategate hearing is over. Berman now talking to lawyers for both sides. Goodell, Brady et al due back in court Aug 31 at 11 a.m.

Max Stendahl ‏@MaxLaw360 5m5 minutes ago
Judge Berman also questioned Goodell's statement that closest parallel to Brady suspension was steroid use and use of masking agent.

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 8m8 minutes agoManhattan, NY
Berman hit the NFL hard yet again, and again had problems with language of Wells Report and appeal process

Max Stendahl ‏@MaxLaw360 8m8 minutes ago
Judge Berman: "Why didn't he say that? He's a pretty smart guy, Mr. Wells." (tying "general awareness" to AFC Championship Game)

Ben Volin ‏@BenVolin 8m8 minutes ago
Judge Berman was very critical of Goodell’s conparison of ball deflation to steroids, and that Wells Report has no Brady link to Jan. 18

Max Stendahl ‏@MaxLaw360 10m10 minutes ago
Judge Berman questioned why the key sentence in Wells report ("general awareness") did not specify that finding related to Colts Game.

Matt Taibbi ‏@mtaibbi 12m12 minutes agoManhattan, NY
Most interesting moment to me was Berman saying Goodell may have violated rules by disallowing testimony of Pash at Brady's arb appeal.

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 12s12 seconds agoManhattan, NY
Berman: "I don't understand the thinking to not allow Mr. Pash as a witness. Who else but Pash had the opportunity to edit the Wells Report?

Matt Taibbi ‏@mtaibbi 9m9 minutes agoManhattan, NY
Also very noticeable: Judge Berman actually helped Kessler make a point by pointing out how useful Pash would have been as a witness.

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 2m2 minutes agoManhattan, NY
Berman also wanted to know how Goodell settled on four game suspension.

[Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 2m2 minutes agoManhattan, NY
Berman: "Which of the four games were for ball tampering and which were for non cooperation?"

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 1m1 minute agoManhattan, NY
Berman: "The next time someone tampers with a ball but cooperates, what suspension would he get?"

Stephen Brown @PPVSRB
Nash: "Brady was not just generally aware. He was involved." Berman: "Why doesn't it (Wells Report) say that?"

Michael McCann @McCannSportsLaw
Judge Berman may be pushing a settlement, but by signaling doubts about NFL's legal arguments, he emboldens Tom Brady to wait for decision.

Bob McGovern @BobMcGovernJr
Near the end, Kessler had his co-counsel drop off to Berman a list of 18 extra cases that bolster their argument.

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 3m3 minutes agoManhattan, NY
Berman: "I don't understand the thinking to not allow Mr. Pash as a witness. Who else but Pash had the opportunity to edit the Wells Report?

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 2m2 minutes agoManhattan, NY
Berman: The NFL "cannot just conclude they cannot have a witness bc testimony would be cumulative."

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 1m1 minute agoManhattan, NY
Berman: "I believe some arbitration awards have been vacated" because a witness was not allowed to be called without explanation.

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 47s48 seconds agoManhattan, NY
I thought that was Berman's most striking line. Seemed he'd been thinking about it.

Stephen Brown ‏@PPVSRB 33s33 seconds agoManhattan, NY
My impression: Berman tipped his hand a bit to NFL in an effort to make the sides settle.
 

Hoops Cat

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Will this never end? Isn't OS supposed to be hobbing nobs with a bunch of intellectual nerds in Boston, and preparing multiple presentations and then hobbing more nobs, all week?

And then this ^^^^^^^^^^ POS post?

You can't spell POS post without OS.....
 

outside shooter

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wow... more....

Stephen BrownVerified account @PPVSRB
Berman: "There are some basic procedures of fairness that have to be followed.... You got to let someone make their case."

Matt TaibbiVerified account‏@mtaibbi
Berman also ripped NFL lawyer Nash for implying Brady "probably" had done this before.