Of course. The electorate is far more moderate than their gerrymandered legislatures.
Missouri Primary and others
- Thread starter Spartans9312
- Start date
The reason the KS results should shake the GOP to their booties, is because it portends a huge shake up in the conventional wisdom regarding mid term turnout. One of the main reasons that the conventional wisdom tells us that the ruling party loses seats in midterms is apathy among the ruling party's voters, and for a minority party like the GOP that is essential. The NO victory coupled with huge turnout of voters in KS, throws that conventional wisdom on it's ears...
Basically the KS vote validates trends that the polls have picked up and shows why polls are trending towards the Dems. The GOP had a huge edge in voter enthusiasm early on, and the possibility of a red wave was very likely.
So a Suffolk analysis on June 22 had people supporting Roe( still in limbo at the time), but only minimum amounts of voters said it would motivate them to vote...
"While abortion rights are viewed as an important issue, they are in most cases not the deciding factor for voters in the upcoming November midterm election. About 62% said abortion is an important issue, but not the most important issue driving their vote.
Instead, the economy is foremost on the minds of a majority of voters. Asked what matters more to their vote, abortion rights or the state of the economy, voters picked the economy hands down, with 66% choosing it compared to the 23% who chose abortion rights. More than three-quarters of respondents (77%) said a Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade would have no effect on their likelihood of voting in November."
Suffolk Poll: Most Voters Not Informed on Abortion Facts
Majority oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, but economy remains most important to voters
Again that was after the leak, when Roe's overthrow was basically still a hypothetical...
Now flash forward to July 31, and a new analysis by USA/Suffolk
"Sixty-four percent of Democrats say the court's action makes them more likely to vote in November, potentially a crucial factor in midterm elections that traditionally have low turnout. That's more than double the 29% of Democrats who expressed that view in a USA TODAY/Suffolk survey taken in June after a draft of the landmark decision was leaked. "
Exclusive: Concern about abortion explodes among Democrats, fueling a push to vote
As the Supreme Court moved to overturn Roe v. Wade in June, 29% of Democrats said the ruling made them more likely to vote in November. Now, 64% do.
www.usatoday.com
Now validation for the Suffolk analysis of July 31? This is an analysis on the early/mail vote in KS PRIOR to the results being known. While the proposed amendment spurred turnout by both proponents and opponents (according to the story) the end result showed that the record early vote was a result of Dems, Non-affiliated AND GOP voters all coming together to defeat the amendment.
"Early voting was robust. As of Monday, 271,438 ballots had been cast. That’s far more than the last midterm primary in 2018, when advance mail-in and in-person ballots totaled 89,449, according to the Kansas Secretary of State’s office.
Unaffiliated voters—who’d generally have little reason to pay attention to a primary—delivered more than 40,000 of the early votes. Republicans cast 122,677; Democrats, 106,800; and Libertarians, 1,457, according to the state’s data."
Kansas Turnout Soars in First Post-Roe Abortion Vote
(Bloomberg Government) -- Kansas could have a record-setting primary election turnout Tuesday as voters decide the first abortion-focused ballot measure since the US Supreme Court overturned its Roe vs. Wade decision.Most Read from BloombergThis Is How China Could Hit Back Over Pelosi’s Taiwan...
Those numbers are a nightmare for GOP hopes for a "red wave"... The fact that the amendment had 70% of the vote following the mail/early vote tally means that most of the unaffiliated and a large % of the GOP voted against the GOP position. Roughly 17,000 more votes were cast by GOP registered voters than Dem voters in the early/mail tally, yet the NO vote had roughly a 70% lead AFTER those votes. That is flat as a pancake, freaking KS, which has no where near the suburban areas of states like GA,PA,OH and even MO...
That alone tells you that the GOP has a huge ROE problem facing it in the fall...
Which is the entire fallacy of Alito's claim that he was leaving it up to the "states"...
In order to elect more Democrats to Congress the Michigan commission drew zero black majority Congressional districts. As a result Detroit (pop. 672,000) which is 77% black will now have zero Black US Congressman.
Alito's claims were all contrived. He might as well have based his opinion on "I want to."
Dumb.
Kansas did exactly what Alito said states should do - have elections and let the political process decide abortion rights. The fact you can’t see that makes all of your opinions suspect, nay, criminally defective.
Sounds like the Detroit Dems are dumb racists.
At the state level, They definitely split black communities in order to elect more White Democrats.
