KENPOM DAY!!!

[Cavanagh]

The season has officially started. I love me some Kenneth. However, he does not like my hoosiers! 49th, 17-13, and 9-11 in conference.... Missing the tourney for sure with that record. 4 way tie for 8th with MI, Nebraska, and Iowa. I would call that a total failure of a season.


I will gladly take any bets on that record. Anyone take the under???


Oh and PU is #1, will be great to see them not make the sweet 16.

Other notables, KU-2, Uconn-4, Auburn-15. Buckle up.

 

[bsmitty08]

The season has officially started. I love me some Kenneth. However, he does not like my hoosiers! 49th, 17-13, and 9-11 in conference.... Missing the tourney for sure with that record. 4 way tie for 8th with MI, Nebraska, and Iowa. I would call that a total failure of a season.


I will gladly take any bets on that record. Anyone take the under???


Oh and PU is #1, will be great to see them not make the sweet 16.

Other notables, KU-2, Uconn-4, Auburn-15. Buckle up.

Yes that would be a huge disappointment if that happens. This will be one of the deepest front courts in the country. Season will come down to our perimeter play.

 

[IUNorth]

The season has officially started. I love me some Kenneth. However, he does not like my hoosiers! 49th, 17-13, and 9-11 in conference.... Missing the tourney for sure with that record. 4 way tie for 8th with MI, Nebraska, and Iowa. I would call that a total failure of a season.


I will gladly take any bets on that record. Anyone take the under???


Oh and PU is #1, will be great to see them not make the sweet 16.

Other notables, KU-2, Uconn-4, Auburn-15. Buckle up.

D-fence...clap, clap, clap...

I'm going to be annoyingly hawkish on that side of the ball. If its mediocre again, like it was last year, we'll fall right on that KenPom prediction. If its good, we'll be markedly better.

 

[dbmhoosier]

The season has officially started. I love me some Kenneth. However, he does not like my hoosiers! 49th, 17-13, and 9-11 in conference.... Missing the tourney for sure with that record. 4 way tie for 8th with MI, Nebraska, and Iowa. I would call that a total failure of a season.


I will gladly take any bets on that record. Anyone take the under???


Oh and PU is #1, will be great to see them not make the sweet 16.

Other notables, KU-2, Uconn-4, Auburn-15. Buckle up.

Yikes. He must still think Archie is our coach.

 

[IUNorth]

He's gotten better over the years at preseason predictions. Like any other data driven system, the more data, the better the information. But even he admits it takes a chunk of the season to take root, and become any sort of reliable predictor.

He has no clue how Mgbako is going to play, as an example...and Mack is a huge piece to our puzzle this year.

 

[DCDAVID]

I like both Kenpom and Sagarin once approximately 1/3 of the season has been played. Pre-season they both seem suspect

 

[DCDAVID]

Kenpom has Wiscy as the 20th ranked team. They were 20-15, 9-11 last year. Did they get an influx of talent and/or is everyone back?

Northwestern is at 40th while IU is 49th. Hope we prove that wrong (although we did not prove it last year. still can’t believe they swept us. We could have won the BT).

Georgia is 57th and Nebraska is 59th……Hope like hell we are more than a little better than those 2.

 

[mohoosier]

He's gotten better over the years at preseason predictions. Like any other data driven system, the more data, the better the information. But even he admits it takes a chunk of the season to take root, and become any sort of reliable predictor.

He has no clue how Mgbako is going to play, as an example...and Mack is a huge piece to our puzzle this year.

Exactly, and Ware as well. I would also throw into that mix, Malik (improvement) and Sparks (blocks depth). Get a guard (Gunn, Cupps) to step up and I like us at least at top 5 in the B1G

 

[Hatchets7times]

They'll be better than that ..
Now it wouldn't surprise me if we're a 8/9 seed in the tournament..
But better than what he's predicting...

 

[asindc]

Yes that would be a huge disappointment if that happens. This will be one of the deepest front courts in the country. Season will come down to our perimeter play.

Deep but inexperienced for the most part. I’m not concerned about the play of the backcourt. How well the youngsters on the team grasp the finer points of CMW’s strategies will determine the team’s ceiling… and floor.

 

[TR32]

I'm not a Kenpom fan, but I think IU has a lot to prove.
Losing a first team all american is not exactly easy to replace.

Really, the challenge for Woodson is that he cannot have a non-NCAA year and then lose guys to the NBA. Can't have that if you "have to get better".

When McNeely arrives, Indiana will need to have at least one of Mbagko and or Ware back IF they did not make the NCAA tourney, otherwise we are treading water.

Personally, I like MSU hands down to win the conference with Purdue 2nd. The rest is fairly open again, and IU has to play very very well as a team to make anything of the season.

Compare- Xavier Booker is five star and MSU doesn't really even need him except to add depth. I'm sure he will do more, but the point is talented freshmen are better off as a luxury to have instead of a need.

 

[GeorgeStrait IU]

The season has officially started. I love me some Kenneth. However, he does not like my hoosiers! 49th, 17-13, and 9-11 in conference.... Missing the tourney for sure with that record. 4 way tie for 8th with MI, Nebraska, and Iowa. I would call that a total failure of a season.


I will gladly take any bets on that record. Anyone take the under???


Oh and PU is #1, will be great to see them not make the sweet 16.

Other notables, KU-2, Uconn-4, Auburn-15. Buckle up.

Injury to X, it'll happen. If CJ Gunn doesent step up a little, I could see it happening.

 

[bsmitty08]

Deep but inexperienced for the most part. I’m not concerned about the play of the backcourt. How well the youngsters on the team grasp the finer points of CMW’s strategies will determine the team’s ceiling… and floor.

What’s inexperienced? Def not our frontcourt.
Walker and Sparks have played a lot of basketball and MR and Ware have a year under their belts. Inexperienced backcourt and shooting will be concerns

 

[kkott]

What’s inexperienced? Def not our frontcourt.
Walker and Sparks have played a lot of basketball and MR and Ware have a year under their belts. Inexperienced backcourt and shooting will be concerns

just as odd to say inpexperienced backcourt when our starting backcourt is likely XJ and TG. I'd say inpexerienced or shallow backcourt depth, which is probably what you are referring to.

 

[Harry Hondo]

Injury to X, it'll happen. If CJ Gunn doesent step up a little, I could see it happening.

It’ll happen, because IU basketball is cursed, because he was previously injured, because you are a pessimist?

 

[bsmitty08]

just as odd to say inpexperienced backcourt when our starting backcourt is likely XJ and TG. I'd say inpexerienced or shallow backcourt depth, which is probably what you are referring to.

Gunn, and Cupps haven’t played much, X and TG have experience but both have missed a lot of time with injuries in career.

 

[hookyIU1990]

Gunn, and Cupps haven’t played much, X and TG have experience but both have missed a lot of time with injuries in career.

Each with broken bones across a single season. It's not like they have a history of nagging soft tissue injuries or back problems.

 

[bsmitty08]

Each with broken bones across a single season. It's not like they have a history of nagging soft tissue injuries or back problems.

Still missed time though.

 

[asindc]

What’s inexperienced? Def not our frontcourt.
Walker and Sparks have played a lot of basketball and MR and Ware have a year under their belts. Inexperienced backcourt and shooting will be concerns

The three frontcourt starters are a freshman, a sophomore, and a transfer sophomore. IU has only two frontcourt players that are upperclass men, neither of whom has played a single minute yet for the team.

The two backcourt starters, a 6th-yr. senior and a true senior, together have more playing experience than the entire starting frontcourt combined, even more so when looking strictly at IU experience. And that’s even when taking In account time missed due to injuries.

 

[dbmhoosier]

We have a ton of new pieces and still no outside shooting at all. Yes our frontcourt is stacked but will be very easy to defend when the opponent doesn't have to guard the perimeter. I don't agree with Kenpom but that's the reasoning.

 

[bsmitty08]

The three frontcourt starters are a freshman, a sophomore, and a transfer sophomore. IU has only two frontcourt players that are upperclass men, neither of whom has played a single minute yet for the team.

The two backcourt starters, a 6th-yr. senior and a true senior, together have more playing experience than the entire starting frontcourt combined, even more so when looking strictly at IU experience. And that’s even when taking In account time missed due to injuries.

Sparks and Walker with experience and 3 five stars make this a pretty dang good unit.

 

[asindc]

Sparks and Walker with experience and 3 five stars make this a pretty dang good unit.

The talent is certainly there. It remains to be seen how quickly and how well they adapt to what CMW wants.

 

[T.M.P.]

Yikes. He must still think Archie is our coach.

It's player data driven, moron. The coach has absolutely nothing to do with his ranking system.

 

[mohoosier]

It's player data driven, moron. The coach has absolutely nothing to do with his ranking system.

Why the name calling...can't get jest?

 

[mohoosier]

The talent is certainly there. It remains to be seen how quickly and how well they adapt to what CMW wants.

Agree, bunch of new pieces but X, Gallo and Malik provide a solid core who understand Woody's system and all play good D.

 

[IUNorth]

Agree, bunch of new pieces but X, Gallo and Malik provide a solid core who understand Woody's system and all play good D.

This will be the key. I'd contend that all 3 have been inconsistent defensively, in different ways. If they're all solidly good defensively, this year, I think we could end up having a really good team.

 

[Bucket Getter]

Why the name calling...can't get jest?

Not the way that cat rolls. Makes it feel better, I guess.

And to tell you the truth, every prognosticator worth his salt, should 100% consider the coach. I mean if ONLY player metrics matter, why even have coaches?

 

[mohoosier]

Not the way that cat rolls. Makes it feel better, I guess.

And to tell you the truth, every prognosticator worth his salt, should 100% consider the coach. I mean if ONLY player metrics matter, why even have coaches?

Couldn’t agree more on the importance of a coach at the college ranks. I mean, Bob Knight, need I say more?

 

[IUNorth]

Not the way that cat rolls. Makes it feel better, I guess.

And to tell you the truth, every prognosticator worth his salt, should 100% consider the coach. I mean if ONLY player metrics matter, why even have coaches?

In some ways, the coach is baked in to KenPom's ratings. Wisconsin is always a KenPom darling, and its because of how they play...which is obviously due to their coaching.

 

[T.M.P.]

In some ways, the coach is baked in to KenPom's ratings. Wisconsin is always a KenPom darling, and its because of how they play...which is obviously due to their coaching.

True but IIRC - he's changed methods more than once - Pom currently inputs returning player efficiencies. adds transfers, increases or adjusts minutes/usage and then adds the top 30 impact freshman, using averages per ranking and position. There is no coaching efficiency rating used.

The only time he makes an adjustment based on coaching is when there is a new coach but I don't know what that adjustment is, probably a negative.

 

[IUNorth]

True but IIRC - he's changed methods more than once - Pom currently inputs returning player efficiencies. adds transfers, increases or adjusts minutes/usage and then adds the top 30 impact freshman, using averages per ranking and position. There is no coaching efficiency rating used.

The only time he makes an adjustment based on coaching is when there is a new coach but I don't know what that adjustment is, probably a negative.

For sure. And I have no clue how you could measure this...but obviously Wisconsin's system (Gard's system now), has a big effect on guys like Hepburn and Essegian's efficiency numbers. That's mainly what I was referring to.

Gotta be a way to quantify a coach's past systems, their success, and factor that in to the overall equation... And that effect could be amplified by coaches with longer tenure's, like Self, Izzo, Painter, etc...

When they have this mixture of players experience, specific types of players by efficiencies, they've been historically this good...and it amplifies a teams rating by X amount...

For a less tenured coach, like Woodson, the amplification would be much smaller.

I don't know...seems weird he wouldn't have some sort of coaching spelled out.

 

[T.M.P.]

For sure. And I have no clue how you could measure this...but obviously Wisconsin's system (Gard's system now), has a big effect on guys like Hepburn and Essegian's efficiency numbers. That's mainly what I was referring to.

Gotta be a way to quantify a coach's past systems, their success, and factor that in to the overall equation... And that effect could be amplified by coaches with longer tenure's, like Self, Izzo, Painter, etc...

When they have this mixture of players experience, specific types of players by efficiencies, they've been historically this good...and it amplifies a teams rating by X amount...

For a less tenured coach, like Woodson, the amplification would be much smaller.

I don't know...seems weird he wouldn't have some sort of coaching spelled out.

Gotta remember what his intent is: To have an efficiency-based ranking system based on data. Not to make an accurate preseason ranking, which he only does as fan service.

With all the data he's collected it probably wouldn't be too hard to input something like that ... but it's not his goal and would probably ruin his long summer vacations ..

 

[Bucket Getter]

Gotta remember what his intent is: To have an efficiency-based ranking system based on data. Not to make an accurate preseason ranking, which he only does as fan service.

With all the data he's collected it probably wouldn't be too hard to input something like that ... but it's not his goal and would probably ruin his long summer vacations ..

In other words, his guess is as good as ours. A basic crapshoot.

 

[Middawg]

In some ways, the coach is baked in to KenPom's ratings. Wisconsin is always a KenPom darling, and its because of how they play...which is obviously due to their coaching.

Judging by the rankings for both PU and Bucky, it seems there is a distinct bias toward teams that play slow as shit running uphill.

PU was #341 in possessions per 40 last season and despite being efficient as hell, struggled against the worst big ten schedule a big ten champ has ever faced to score 70 in big ten play

 

[Courtsensetwo]

The season has officially started. I love me some Kenneth. However, he does not like my hoosiers! 49th, 17-13, and 9-11 in conference.... Missing the tourney for sure with that record. 4 way tie for 8th with MI, Nebraska, and Iowa. I would call that a total failure of a season.


I will gladly take any bets on that record. Anyone take the under???


Oh and PU is #1, will be great to see them not make the sweet 16.

Other notables, KU-2, Uconn-4, Auburn-15. Buckle up.

Lazy analysis on his part

Lost two best players to the NBA

The must be bad

 

[aajohn2000]

The season has officially started. I love me some Kenneth. However, he does not like my hoosiers! 49th, 17-13, and 9-11 in conference.... Missing the tourney for sure with that record. 4 way tie for 8th with MI, Nebraska, and Iowa. I would call that a total failure of a season.


I will gladly take any bets on that record. Anyone take the under???


Oh and PU is #1, will be great to see them not make the sweet 16.

Other notables, KU-2, Uconn-4, Auburn-15. Buckle up.

TJD and JHS were the team last year. They won a ton a games for us. JHS single handedly took down PU. I won't take the under. But my gut tells me we will be a bubble team. Early pre-conference schedule is brutal as you outline. I am all aboard on the Hoosiers, as usual, and am hopeful Kenpom is way the hell off in his early rankings and we will be in the top 20 come the end of the season and are playing our best basketball at the right time and come into March red hot and a big winning streak.

 

[IUfanBorden]

Agree, bunch of new pieces but X, Gallo and Malik provide a solid core who understand Woody's system and all play good D.

Add CJ and Banks to this as well. Cant overlook them having a year under their belts.

 

[mohoosier]

In other words, his guess is as good as ours. A basic crapshoot.

With stats you have to start somewhere and KP in October is at best a crapshoot. I subscribe to his site for multiple reasons but pay no attention to rankings or head to head predictions until at least January.

 

[sglowrider]

Regardless of the calculus (and really.. who cares in October), I hope Woodie has it pined up in the locker room, the practice facilities... everywhere in fact.

This ought to light a fire under the respective posteriors of the three 5stars we have starting.

 

[benhyoung14]

I just dont see it. Mgbako is a top 10 recruit, and so was Ware. Unless one of them turns into a Lander, or gets hurt, IU is probably 20 - 25. If the do well, top 15. My guess is a lot of the rankings are going off of Ware's stats when he was sitting.