Maybe, since he's got a lot of money... But the debate will be crucial for him, and (not sure if you remember it or not) I was talking about his weakness as a national campaigner and his lack of personality and inability to deal with a hostile press, long before he even announced. It's one thing to hold press conferences/victory laps in a controlled environment in a room full of supporters in FL. But being told you have to remember to smile and seem likable- that's not exactly Charisma...
He really hasn't proven anything. He was languishing in 3rd place in the GOP Primary for Governor in 2018, before he sucked up to Trump and got an endorsement that boosted him to the nomination. He barely beat Gillum,then won what he decided was a resounding victory over worn out Crist in the 2022 race. But the Dem party in FL is not representative of the National Dem party.
What RD never mentions about his race is that less people (specifically less Dems voted in FL in 2022, than in 2018. However that didn't necessarily mean they voted for DeSantis. Crist got nearly 1 million less votes than Gillum in 2018, but DeSanti's 2022 total only increased by 500,000. And there was a 3rd party cnadidate who got 100,000 votes in 2018, so clearly a lot of Dems just didn't bother to vote in 2022 in FL...
A study just released this week studied covid deaths in Ohio and FL between Red and Blue counties from March 2020 thru Dec 2021. Interestingly enough they discovered that when there was no vaccine there was no gap, but after the vaccine became widespread they discovered that there was a higher excess mortality rate between Red and Blue counties in both states, although it was more pronouned in Ohio. FL was also a state where the mortality rate increased after the vaccine was widely available in the study which used 5/1/21 as the date between the 2 phases.
Here is a copy of the study and the metrics...
This cross-sectional study examines the differences in excess death rates between Republican and Democratic voters in Florida and Ohio after the COVID-19 vaccine became available for all adults.
jamanetwork.com
Now this is where DeSantis becomes vulnerable over his covid policy...It could even hurt him with people who are inclined to view him as the anti-vax warrior, the image he seeks to foster. The truth is Ron was initially very pro-vaccine, and even courted controversy over his desire to insure certain populations had access to it first...
We discussed it on this very board, the way Ron made sure that Publix (who happens to be a huge campaign contributor) was given exclusive access to distribute the vaccine initially. There was also controversy over the fact that certain wealthy donor class citizens seemed to be able to bypass more at risk populations. Don't need to rehash those issues, but the point is that DeSantis started out VERY pro-vaccine...
That sentiment continued from May 1 2021 (when the vaccine became widespreadly available) until July 2021.
Up until that point FL was a leader in the vaccine crusade, and actually led the country in vaccine rates.
However by July 2021, the vaccine had become a political football, and after sticking his finger up to gauge the political winds DeSantis stopped promoting the vaccine and basically did a 180 on the importance of preventing covid.. Consequently FL's vaccination rates fell and the vax rates of younger adults dropped below the national average,
Consequently when the Delta variant hit FL was extremely vulnerable. FL was the state hit hardest by Delta with 23,000 Floridians ( 9000 younger than 65) dying from the deadly variant.. From July 2021 -Oct 2021, FL represented 14% of covid deaths, despite only comprising 7% of the US population.
And yes the stats are age adjusted, and while it's true that FL is probably the oldest state (population wise) that fact was also true in the period up to July 2021, when FL's death rate was below states like CA and NY, and FL did not lead the nation in covid deaths like they did post July 2021...So clearly someting in FL changed post May 2021, and coincidentally enough that was the same period of time when DeSantis flip flopped on the vaccine.
The DeSantis flip flop shows up early in this video...