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Indiana/Ohio State Prediction Thread

One suggestion, guys. There is a wide range of possible outcomes at the 'shoe this weekend and Saturday's game, for me, is the toughest pick since the UCLA game. I know there's a temptation, particularly this week, to go with "my heart says [Score A] but my head says [Score B]." Your call as to whether to go with your head or your heart, but try to go with just one score prediction. Let's have some fun with this and see who among us is Nostradamus.

Here's my prediction:

IU 27
OSU 23

Go Hoosiers!
IU 21
OSU 17

OSU is putting a lot of pressure on themselves to win this game. "A must win"; "A loss and we're out", etc. Per Cig and players, it's just another game, with same process as usual. In my view, too much pressure for their QB to handle.
 
We haven't played anybody with OSU's talent this year, nor have we played in a place like the Horseshoe. Too much to overcome:

OSU: 34
IU:13
 
I think we get our comeuppance. MICH should’ve beaten us (they didn’t because Moore isn’t Harbaugh), and OSU is way better. It’s in Columbus and we haven’t beaten them since 1988. It’s like asking the basketball team to win in Madison—it just doesn’t happen. B1G wants an OSU/ORE rematch in Indy. They get it.

OSU 35, IND 17. Hello Citrus Bowl—the committee will drop us like a rock.
OSU/Oregon could play 3 times!
 
Oh, I get it. But he’s a better coach than Moore.
Tricky situation for them. Moore was acting head coach last year during the title run when Coach Khaki was suspended. He held them together to ensure an undefeated season. They went the Bill Lynch route circa 2007. It came down to: do you boot the guy who was the interim last year success or boot a guy and go totally different direction with a new regime?
 
I’ve instructed my wife to hide my rose-colored glasses, on purpose.

Ohio State 34 - IU 14

Which IU team shows up, the one that struggled against Northeastern and Michigan, or the one that annihilated a poor Nebraska team? I expect the former. My negativity is a personal defense mechanism designed to ameliorate the depression of the broken-hearted, having lost this highly anticipated Buck-nut game.
 
As all teams do
Go back and watch. All teams do but not to the extent as Michigan does. They don’t get called for it either. It’s the same in basketball when you play certain teams that get away with shady plays. Like Wisconsin and NW. the refs let it go.
 
Go back and watch. All teams do but not to the extent as Michigan does. They don’t get called for it either. It’s the same in basketball when you play certain teams that get away with shady plays. Like Wisconsin and NW. the refs let it go.
I honestly believe that its a situation where the refs are posed with calling fouls or penalties on nearly every possession...or largely letting it go, and only then calling the most obvious or egregious penalties. For B10 bball, I think this phenomena started with the great Izzo 2000 ish teams basically becoming football teams. Refs making the decision to allow it rather than foul everyone out, and the entire league having to adjust... Its why the B10 has the reputation of being "too physical" nowadays.
 
I honestly believe that its a situation where the refs are posed with calling fouls or penalties on nearly every possession...or largely letting it go, and only then calling the most obvious or egregious penalties. For B10 bball, I think this phenomena started with the great Izzo 2000 ish teams basically becoming football teams. Refs making the decision to allow it rather than foul everyone out, and the entire league having to adjust... Its why the B10 has the reputation of being "too physical" nowadays.
That’s exactly it but not all teams will get away with it.
 
That’s exactly it but not all teams will get away with it.
My theory is not all teams are as "committed to it". When the refs or officials call things early, they back off, adjust. Football programs like Harbaugh/Michigan don't adjust, they force the refs to adjust. They might have some games here and there where they get called for a couple early...but if anything, they ramp up the holds...certainly don't back off.

Officials are often looking for things that "jump out" to them. In a Michigan football game, jersey grabbing, even outside the shoulders isn't something that "jumps out". In a Wisconsin basketball game, illegal screens don't "jump out", grabs and hacks don't jump out, because its literally every possession.
 
ugh. The bell curve is it's just as likely we L by +20. as it is get a W.

*this started out short and grew and grew.... humor me.

Stats are very comparable however there as a couple of stand outs, specifically OSU's defense.

Red Zone

IU RZ Scoring %97.92% (#1)Opp RZ Scoring %85.71% (#73)OSU RZ Scoring %97.37% (#2)Opp RZ Scoring %52.17% (#1)

Passing yards per game and Sacks
IU Pass Yards/Game265.2 (#30)Opp Pass Yards/Game191.6 (#27)OSU Pass Yards/Game267.6 (#27)Opp Pass Yards/Game160.1 (#5)
IU Int Thrown %1.95% (#36)Opp Int Thrown %3.08% (#45)OSU Int Thrown %1.75% (#21)Opp Int Thrown %2.65% (#64)
IU QB Sacked %4.10% (#30)Sack %7.89% (#26)OSU QB Sacked %4.04% (#28)Sack %10.20% (#5)

Considering our two schedules, i would assume our numbers are somewhat padded. Let's face it, we've faced the lower 1/2 of the B18 so the stats favor OSU so overall, I discount our stats a bit.
But (rose coloring) we've out scored common opponents by 103, vs OSU's +59 ( Nwstn, MSU, Nebr). So there's that.

Other factors:
OSU is dinged and lost a key player, while IU is mended and now rested +IU
OSU has Day, IU has Cig. +IU
OSU has home field and preforms well at home. BUT IU had a bye week and time to plot = a wash
OSU has seen the tough challenge and tested multiple times, IU has been discounted and disrespected multiple times and has the "chip on the shoulder" = a wash
OSU has weaker kicking %, IU has a good FG % but in a small sample size. +IU

Overall, I think OSU very talented but I also think they are beatable. It's up to our Offensive Line period. Keep them off QB and get a handful of +10 yd carries.
If we can keep our offense on the field, and not have Michigan type showing, we keep this close and win a low scoring game on field goals.

IU 16
OSU 14
 
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No prediction but I delayed a haircut appt to next week after seeing that my last haircut was prior to the first game of the season.
 
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