The governors are quickly losing control of social distancing. I see another spike in June and then finito for football. I would no be surprised if Dr. Fauci drops a bomb on spectator sports at the senate hearing today.
IMO, Kiss college football fall season goodbye.
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Here's what he said yesterday:
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/05/11/nfl-season-dr-fauci-coronavirus-fmia-peter-king/
It's an interesting quick study of the state of journalism today that by doing a quick roam around the internet and viewing the varying headlines for the multiple versions of stories written about this same interview you can find almost diametrically opposing versions of what he actually said... Funny how many only write about the portion of the interview they agree with..., editing out huge chunks of what he actually said, in total and/or leaving out the context in which he's saying it... ///Which is why I nearly always try to read or view three opposing viewpoints/sources on any important story these days...///
What I hear him saying is this: he thinks it's doubtful but could be possible (based upon the circumstances he lays out clearly).
My take on his interview is exactly what he evidently believes (because he said so)..., "the virus will decide for us"...
By August the answer should be clear... Let's hope we haven't lost the numerical equivalent of more than the 1st & 2nd Marine Divisions, in their entirety (46,000 plus Marines) by then...
There are some models showing potential higher losses than that.
Like this one:http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-ihme-forecast-projects-nearly-135000-covid-19-deaths-us
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It's purely a numbers game.
As of today we have the following with distancing and lock downs:
1,347,936 - reported case
80,684 - deaths
5.9% - mortality rate
If we go with an assumption of 200,000,000 with anti-bodies and a lowered mortality rate of 4%.
That still leaves us with
100,000,000 - potential cases
4,000,000 - potential deaths
My numbers are probably off by quite a bit, but even if it's 25% of what I listed it would be awful. Herd immunity will probably kick in at some point. Treatment will get better and who knows maybe a vaccine will be developed.
But I think sports are done for awhile.
Many studies have indicated that the actual infection rate is several orders of magnitude higher.
Your kill rate is way off.
Your kill rate is way off.
Can we agree that herd immunity does little to nothing to limit improve one's ability to survive the infection? Herd immunity only means that would be carriers might be turned into buffers.
The experts say herd immunity will likely require at least another 200 million to become infected. Establishing herd immunity is a euphemism for the failure of medicine to find an adequate solution.
I know what herd immunity brings to the table and that it doesn't raise any individuals chance of survival if they contract the virus. But if that % is hit it does keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed and people dying of the virus or something else.
Herd immunity doesn't necessarily imply a failure by medicine.
Small pox was eradicated, for example, because of mass vaccinations creating herd immunity without significant illness.
Similarly, we could gain herd immunity if they actually create a therapeutic that could fight the thing with great success. In that situation, you could have high number of natural infections, relatively low number of deaths due to improved treatment, and (eventually) a high enough number of people with antibodies to prevent spread across the broader population.
Small pox was eradicated, for example, because of mass vaccinations creating herd immunity without significant illness.
Similarly, we could gain herd immunity if they actually create a therapeutic that could fight the thing with great success. In that situation, you could have high number of natural infections, relatively low number of deaths due to improved treatment, and (eventually) a high enough number of people with antibodies to prevent spread across the broader population.
I'd like to see anything be doable next fall, i.e. games without fans (family only) televised at least, versus no football at all. Would love to see something happen in a positive direction for the country and the world of sports. (and of course everyone's health first/foremost.)
I'm more concerned that kids are able to go back to school. Remote learning is worthless and if students don't return to campus places like Bloomington will be completely screwed.
IMO when we talk about herd immunity relative to this virus it is being mentioned as an alternative to vaccines. I am coming to the conclusion that I am likely to catch the virus or sit in my little apartment for another 12 months. Either way I am not going to any football games.
They can't. That's why I believe we'll see a football season this coming academic year - - in the spring.
There will be football down South. Guarantee it.
Not if the other major conferences move to the Spring. If the SEC, for example, is the only P5 playing fall ball, nobody has a shot at the Heisman, there's no playoff for them, no national champion possibilities, and a slew of stats/records have * next to them forever.
They won't go rogue, and will end up marching in lockstep with the other conferences.
I’ve already said this will be a year of no national championship or Bowls. Spring would be awful IMO. All the good players will sit out. It will be a diluted product. Nobody in the projected first several rounds of the draft would play. Remember the draft is in April.
NFL starts in late October or November in both 2020 and 2021. Everything, including the draft, gets pushed back. You heard it here first.
It didn't sound like a bomb being dropped to me. Not to mention, none of that is news. We've already known those things for awhile now. Everyone has an opinion, & mine is the spread will slow as the weather warms. Wanna' bet on it?
Yesterday was Cal State's announcement and today a spokesman for the UC system said it's likely that none of their campuses (including Cal and UCLA) will fully reopen in the fall. That's it, then, for Pac-12 football in the fall.
Cases are increasing in a number of states including Arkansas and Alabama, but it'll be gone by Memorial Day "like a miracle."
That's possible but I would think that if the power 5 decide to go ahead even with a limited schedule and the Pac12 bows out it could be devastating for them financially. Not sure what freedom USC and Stanford have as private schools in CA.
Oh I'm sorry, I sometimes forget that hope & facts are taboo when it comes to this virus. Nevermind that every coronavirus in known history has struggled with a reduced ability to transmit in high heat & prolonged exposure to UV radiation. That would indicate NOTHING about what this virus might do & would offer NO reason to surmise that this particular coronavirus might do the same. Not to mention violate the imminence of worst case scenario that we are required to subscribe to. Silly me.
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The answer to your question is no, but it's much much deeper than that. This isn't an academic board to discuss academic things, but cancelling school altogether, as some have indicated would be the best idea, would doom most schools. Sure some have foundations that would support them for a year or maybe another semester, but research schools that have government patents would lose all revenue because no one is there to do the research necessary. They would loose millions. Indiana University would loose multi millions of dollars because of it. So would all other Big Ten schools. Could they survive until January? Probably....maybe, but the ripple effects would be tremendously bad, as would canceling football season toward athletic departments. Most people aren't thinking what the academic sides would lose, and to me, that will be the biggest thing that will drive universities to open up and get kids on campus. Not just to play games, but keep the money flowing through research and development.
I was in a meeting just last week and a rep from Indiana and Purdue both stated if they stay closed through December, each school will loose approximately 2 billion dollars overall. If that happens, cuts will be made in all areas. Some sports won't exist, some academic majors will go away, and many staff will lose their jobs. Needless to say it was a dire a message that somehow, someway, they have go to open things up as much as possible or things will be lost
Adding to your first paragraph......schools aren't going to get away with charging 100% tuition and fees for on-line classes..............plus......no room & board payments = no payments toward the fixed costs of those structures.
Also.....can you imagine being a freshman at a place like IU and never setting foot on campus you're first year?
Not necessarily........The spokesman for the UC system said they will use a mixed approach with some classroom & lab instruction, and some on-line classes. The Cal State spokesman mentioned only on-line classes.
One of the articles I read said that the UC system is being sued for 'on-campus' fees they refused to return for last semester.
See the Indiana study came out today?? I don’t see how it’s not viewed as good news. The fatality rate is well below the 1% Mark. And that’s straight from IU researchers.
https://apnews.com/50338501577f9483b6d2850cad5c055d
https://apnews.com/50338501577f9483b6d2850cad5c055d
I moved to Charlotte, NC last year. NC has a lot more people than Indiana, but has about a third the number of deaths - around 500.
And it's that way in the entire Southeast.
I don't think there's any doubt that heat affects the virus and its spread.
Who knows if there will be a second wave this Winter. But by then, I would anticipate testing will be much more comprehensive, treatments will be more effective, and a vaccine closer to reality.
It's just unnecessary panic to make a decision about opeing schools anywhere in the first part of May.
How do you account for the hot places around the world? Singapore etc. I hope you're right but the latest research seems to indicate this thing isn't like the flu where it'll subside in warmer months. sucks.
Take a look at studies regarding Covid-19 and vitamin D.
I just saw that the Univ. of Washington model has now lowered the Indiana deaths from approx. 6200 to 2400 by early Aug. Quite dramatic. The pandemic and the solutions are evolving (as is this model). Most of the world is trying to figure this out as we go because it is a unique and appears a more complex Coronavirus than it's predecessors. All countries have and will continue to make mistakes. Hopefully we can take from the successes. I wouldn't doubt the one comment I heard, "in the end we will probably loose as many people if we lock down or open up".
I don't know about that, guy. Limbaugh said it's not unique at all, it's the 19th such virus and that's why it's called Covid-19.
So we were told don't wear a mask, then wear a mask, don't wear gloves, wear gloves, now don't wear gloves, hydroxychloroquine works in France but not in US and now the National Institute of Health is going to begin a clinical trial of hydro+azithromycin because it is working in some patients. Oh yes, and the I need 30K ventilators. So yes I would think this mess is evolving and with that come mistakes and successes.I don't know about that, guy. Limbaugh said it's not unique at all, it's the 19th such virus and that's why it's called Covid-19.
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Don't know, but it's not going crazy in Africa or South America.
Australia might be a test case, since they are entering winter down there. It will be interesting to see if cases increase there.
Yes, 'flattening the curve' was never an answer to lowering deaths. Many don't understand that.
And what a surprise that a model would be that far off. It's almost like they their models aren't very accurate.....
But the virus did fine in other parts of the world where it was in the 90’s, like Africa and South Korea.
That's weird. I looked at a map a couple weeks ago and there weren't many cases.
I thought S. Korea had it under control?
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