For this exercise, assume AAU membership is not a limiting factor
Florida State leaving the ACC would have massive ramifications
Florida State leaving the ACC would have massive ramifications
If we assume FSU ends up destroying the ACC...
- Thread starter Rags to Roses
- Start date
Notre Dame is the most obvious fit...but now that there is a 12 team playoff, I really don't think they'll have much incentive to consider joining a conference for football, any time soon. In fact, watering down the ACC in football further, probably HELPS them moving forward for the next few years. They are contractually obligated, due to their partial alliance to the ACC, to play a set number of ACC teams in football every year. If FSU and Clemson, as examples, were to leave and join other conferences. That inherently makes their football schedule easier.
So...I didn't choose them.
Florida State and Clemson make the most sense, from a football perspective. That's who I'd choose.
My best guess as to who would actually land in the B10 would be FSU, Miami, North Carolina, and either Duke or Virginia, depending on how many the B10 would want to land.
I think Clemson and Louisville would be more likely SEC candidates.
So...I didn't choose them.
Florida State and Clemson make the most sense, from a football perspective. That's who I'd choose.
My best guess as to who would actually land in the B10 would be FSU, Miami, North Carolina, and either Duke or Virginia, depending on how many the B10 would want to land.
I think Clemson and Louisville would be more likely SEC candidates.
It's all about markets.
Big Ten is already in Indiana so Notre Dame doesn't really add anything even if they could be convinced.
I'm Florida State or Miami to get the Florida market and then Clemson or North Carolina to get one of the Carolinas.
Big Ten is already in Indiana so Notre Dame doesn't really add anything even if they could be convinced.
I'm Florida State or Miami to get the Florida market and then Clemson or North Carolina to get one of the Carolinas.
Notre Dame would by far and away be at the top of the pecking order. They draw a national audience from all over the country. Whoever lands Notre Dame has the inside track once media deals are re-negotiated in a decade.
I think the presidents, who will likely want AAU members, would choose from ND, UVA, UNC & Miami. Those worried about media revenue and having better football match-ups would likely choose from ND, Miami, FSU, Clemson. The schools that meet both groups' desires are probably ND & Miami. If ND declines, I don't have a good guess where they would come out.
It doesn't open up another market though. As far as I'm aware, BTN footprint is in the areas/states where they have conference members.
NC State and Virginia Tech. Make our lives easier 🙃
FSU has worked very hard to align with the B1G. FSU and NC bring the markets. Actually GT does too. I feel like the B1G stands as it is for now.
TV markets were important when Rutgers and Maryland joined. They’re a little bit important now but they’re not very important Going forward.
I think those schools only make sense when looked at through a basketball lens. They add little to the football TV inventory which is what drives the bus nowadays.
Georgia Tech sortof makes sense to me - Atlanta market and B1G-level academic institution
They (GaTech) would at least allow for a sort of line of travel, (slightly) linking F$U with the rest of the Conference...
Miami has zero fanbase and has lost their luster. It would help from a recruiting standpoint, but everything I've read says we want North Carolina and Virginia (as does the SEC).
ND is going to have to join. If the ACC breaks up who are they going to schedule?
First, Notre Dame is out as they would want to join as “all but football”.
Looking at our track record we have expanded for money. Moving into high population areas that will view, buy, and donate. I would feel the two Florida schools (FSU and Miami) fit that.
Looking at our track record we have expanded for money. Moving into high population areas that will view, buy, and donate. I would feel the two Florida schools (FSU and Miami) fit that.
I'm not a Miami fan either....the pro-Miami line is that its a school with a lot of northern enrollment, tons of Midwesterners live in southern Florida, and its a large new market....all of which makes sense.....but my counters would be no on campus stadium, small enrollment and alum #s, and poor attendance unless the team is highly successful. Still, IF FSU DID come to the Big 10, they'd need company in their region and Miami makes sense in that regard (and probably no one else).
It's tricky because the SEC has a lot of cards to play with respect to FSU, UNC, Clemson, VT. For one thing, probably 65% of their alums and 80% of their subway alums would prefer the SEC. Virginia looks more like a Big 10 school but their football is meh, and half of the BT schools are already in that category.
One thing about FSU......as a lot of people have mentioned, the are lots of Midwesterners in central and south Florida, but not so many in the Panhandle.
I think you are too impressed with the Florida Market. I saw two articles during the football season concerning the slipping attendance for both Miami and University of Florida. In addition You have a a large number of retired people Whose primary interest is the Professional Sports teams from the area from which they moved.
If Notre Dame is not an option I would opt for North Carolina and Virginia because they fit nicely geographically with Maryland Rutgers and Penn State. I realize that geography is becoming less of a factor for Conferences. However if You extend the analysis beyond just Footbal, they are a good fit for overall Athletics. My third choice would be Duke.l
Geography obviously doesn't matter much any more. Florida State and Clemson are the top two "prizes". And outside of Notre Dame, they bring the most football value to the conference.
Notre Dame continues to be the most valuable addition for anyone, and I doubt that'll change any time soon. No matter the situation, timing, whatever...as soon as they're ready to join a conference for football, all conferences will be clamoring for them.
Clemson would make sense if paired with FSU. Don't think it would be good for FSU to be a total geographic outlier in the BT, ala WV in the BIg 12.
I just think it likely that FSU, UNC & Clemson (and VT) all end up in the SEC if the SEC wants them. In the end the big $ donors and fans will have their way. That would leave the Big 10, if it desired further schools a menu of Virginia, Miami, Duke (none of which do it for me), GT, ASU, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Stanford (hope not), and Cal (hope not). Not much meat on the bone there. And I think ND will always avoid the BT like the plague.
The BT was always destined to lose the expansion game. Adding USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon was a rather desperate gamble to try to keep up with the Jones after the SEC added TX and OK. Its not clear to me if adding the western teams will work in the long-term.
Um.. Notre Dame’s market is the entire country, plus Ireland, of course. Traditionally, they are the Yankees of college football and have fans everywhere.
Markets being where the college is located, not where the fans are located.
There are IU fans all over the country as well. BTN didn't get to go to California until they had Cali schools.
I agree, and there is perhaps some spill over. Guys watching ND play a big ten team would be exposed to that big ten team. I agree every conference would covet ND but ND wants their own football contract. I don’t see ND joining the big ten.
That's extremely inaccurate. BTN was channel SEVEN in Huntington Beach, CA three years ago. THAT'S why the B1G was never going to be in danger...too much damn clout from the alumni bases.
That's the other thing that gets me...people act like nobody wants to watch an Indiana - Illinois game...there are probably 500k people watching that game and probably double that if it's on ESPN and even more if it's on FOX or ABC.
Well in 2018 comcast dropped BTN on the standard package in markets not in the area. So it’s not as simple as you say. What happened in many cases BTN was moved from the add on package to the standard package in the new market area. They also get more of the revenue share once negotiated. Markets do matter. The B1G is very good at this. Keep in mind that many of those west coast games will be moved up in time slots. Getting better revenue ratings.
It would be beneath ND to join the B1G. It has been offered twice with no luck. Are we supposed to beg them to join our conference?
ND will eventually have to join either the SEC or BIG and the BIG makes a ton more sense for them. Once the ACC breaks up they won't have any decent teams to schedule as an independent. I doubt SEC/BIG teams will want to schedule them out of conference.
Right on target. Their schedule will consist of C-USA, academies, M-West and maybe B12 if they survive. Tuff to build a playoff resume from that bunch.
They can build a playoff résumé from that bunch when it’s a 12 team playoff because they will continue to play Southern Cal, and not everyone is going to say no to scheduling them.. And it might get bigger than 12.
UNC and UVA. I know there’s far less concern about geography these days, but having 2 “Public Ivy” types fits the B1G’s culture, and offers some good geographical continuity in the Mid-Atlantic
Scheduling will get iffy-er for them if a strategy develops that will help keep them out of the playoff picture. AD-s are schemers too.
Hasn’t been about markets for years; all about brands.
So what markets is btn in without having a school in the vicinity?
So you don't think the Big Ten cared about getting BTN into the California, Washington and Oregon markets?
I’d say, to our media rights overlords, it is more specifically about football brands. Which schools can improve the slate of football games that will draw eyeballs (and advertisers) for nationally broadcast games.
Not as much as they did when RU and Maryland joined.
My biggest question, and what I think is being extremely under-reported, is does FSU breaking the grant of rights with the ACC open the floodgates to the same thing happening in other leagues - thus allowing the quick formation of a super league at any time?
