I think kids roughly ranked 75-200 will be the ones that "suffer" the most from the new recruiting world, while things remain how they are today. Nearly all college coaches will still covet top 75 ish level high school players. The talent coming out of HS is as deep as its ever been, and outside the top 25-30, there's still a lot of value with a guy you're comfortable can be productive, coming in as a 4 star freshman. But to fully build your team, to fill out roster spots, to really spend the large bulk of your NIL/Rev Share...that's going to shift more towards portal kids, without question. And the math starts to hurt the fringe 4 star kids, and the 3 star kids, to get P4 roster spots out of high school.
The focus on "fixing" the current problems needs to be with transfer rules.
Maybe...
1. Every kid gets 1 transfer.
2. After they use that transfer, any further transfers will require them to sit out a year.
3. Coaches leaving, family medical emergency, etc... would provide waivers, like they used to.
Overnight, those things would clean up quite a number of the issues everyone is seeing today with poaching, inflated NIL values, roster management, etc...