Getting Their Lifelong Wish, Plus Or Negative For Conservatives?

[i'vegotwinners]

as bad as i feel for women and their men, if the court does strike down Roe, imo it could be the biggest boost to Dem candidates in state races literally ever.

i feel conflicted.

if SCOTUS does overturn Roe, does the plus from the body blow to Pubs in state races across the US, out weigh the harm of a pregnant female having to leave the state once or twice in their lifetime for a day or a couple of days, for an abortion if wanted/needed.

and with Pub's state govt assaults on voting rights, and in some cases elections themselves, shifting into high gear, is that question not more pertinent now than ever?

who wins here?

 

[CO. Hoosier]

as bad as i feel for women and their men, if the court does strike down Roe, imo it could be the biggest boost to Dem candidates in state races literally ever.

i feel conflicted.

if SCOTUS does overturn Roe, does the plus from the body blow to Pubs in state races across the US, out weigh the harm of a pregnant female having to leave the state once or twice in their lifetime for a day or a couple of days, for an abortion if wanted/needed.

and with Pub's state govt assaults on voting rights, and in some cases elections themselves, shifting into high gear, is that question not more pertinent now than ever?

who wins here?

Reasonable people with common sense win. That will exclude democrats. Democrats are all in on allowing abortion on demand up to the moment of normal birth. Most people are not close to that position. Pro-life democrats are extinct and democrats who support reasonable limits can’t say that in public.

 

[anon_mya1phvcpf5x4]

Reasonable people with common sense win. That will exclude democrats. Democrats are all in on allowing abortion on demand up to the moment of normal birth. Most people are not close to that position. Pro-life democrats are extinct and democrats who support reasonable limits can’t say that in public.

Most dems are not for up until birth but keep twisting.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Most dems are not for up until birth but keep twisting.

Maybe they aren't. But they still can't say that. Colorado and NY d abortion laws are otherwise. Most democrats who publicly take a position on abortion will not say they are in favor of any restrictions.

When Democrats say they want to "codify Roe v. Wade," they are lying. They don't want R. v. W. codified. They want much more liberal abortion laws, along the lines of North Korea and China.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

Maybe they aren't. But they still can't say that. Colorado and NY d abortion laws are otherwise. Most democrats who publicly take a position on abortion will not say they are in favor of any restrictions.

When Democrats say they want to "codify Roe v. Wade," they are lying. They don't want R. v. W. codified. They want much more liberal abortion laws, along the lines of North Korea and China.

you're just outright lying again.

that seems to be a go to Pub strategy a lot of the time.

and while all people lie, and both parties lie, lying seems much more a conservative thing than a liberal thing.

imo from decades of observation, Pubs just see lying as an effective means to an end, just good smart strategy, especially when truth works against them, and don't assign a moral attachment to it the way most libs do.

 

[T.M.P.]

Reasonable people with common sense win. That will exclude democrats. Democrats are all in on allowing abortion on demand up to the moment of normal birth. Most people are not close to that position. Pro-life democrats are extinct and democrats who support reasonable limits can’t say that in public.

Every single word of this ^^ is a lie.

I know more than a few pro life democrats. Some people believe in the sanctity of life without political or religious affiliation. Some people can think outside a narrow pre- conceived box dictated to them by their "party" and entertainment news.

You are not one of those people, you are instead nothing but radicalized weak-minded fool, and a liar.

What a complete POS...

 

[Crayfish57]

Every single word of this ^^ is a lie.

I know more than a few pro life democrats. Some people believe in the sanctity of life without political or religious affiliation. Some people can think outside a narrow pre- conceived box dictated to them by their "party" and entertainment news.

You are not one of those people, you are instead nothing but radicalized weak-minded fool, and a liar.

What a complete POS...

Yes, you are a complete POS and I highly doubt you actually know anyone outside of the basement you post from A fool and a POS is exactly what you are. You come on here spouting BS , you never respond to anyone regardless. YOU ARE A POS obviously you have no balls at all. At least stand up for yourself , You are a miserable piece of sh*T I spelled it out so you can better undersand that you are a miserable Piece of Shit

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

Yes, you are a complete POS and I highly doubt you actually know anyone outside of the basement you post from A fool and a POS is exactly what you are. You come on here spouting BS , you never respond to anyone regardless. YOU ARE A POS obviously you have no balls at all. At least stand up for yourself , You are a miserable piece of sh*T I spelled it out so you can better undersand that you are a miserable Piece of Shit

English, please,
A little more self-awareness would be great, too.

 

[Crayfish57]

English, please,
A little more self-awareness would be great, too.

FU a**hole

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

FU a**hole

English, please.

 

[Crayfish57]

English, please.

Why are you always a d^ck is that English enough for you?

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

Why are you always a d^ck is that English enough for you?

...says the guy who posted this...

Yes, you are a complete POS and I highly doubt you actually know anyone outside of the basement you post from A fool and a POS is exactly what you are. You come on here spouting BS , you never respond to anyone regardless. YOU ARE A POS obviously you have no balls at all. At least stand up for yourself , You are a miserable piece of sh*T I spelled it out so you can better undersand that you are a miserable Piece of Shit

You can see it, right?

 

[IUCrazy2]

as bad as i feel for women and their men, if the court does strike down Roe, imo it could be the biggest boost to Dem candidates in state races literally ever.

i feel conflicted.

if SCOTUS does overturn Roe, does the plus from the body blow to Pubs in state races across the US, out weigh the harm of a pregnant female having to leave the state once or twice in their lifetime for a day or a couple of days, for an abortion if wanted/needed.

and with Pub's state govt assaults on voting rights, and in some cases elections themselves, shifting into high gear, is that question not more pertinent now than ever?

who wins here?

This issue is similar to the slavery issue. What will probably happen is that Democrats will get their 3/5 compromise from Republicans at a Federal level. The political class is probably a little worried because the only thing that matters to them is the next election, the majority of them have no real convictions past the trappings of office. Power for some. Wealth accumulation for others. There are the "true believers" out there though. You are basically asking abolitionists, "aren't you worried that the whole emancipation proclamation thing might cost an election?" To them, nah, we have those every 2 years. The GOP has been declared dead after almost every major Democrat Presidential election lately. "The Demographics are against you". Until the politics are tweaked and conservative leaning Hispanics start flipping that script.

If I am a Republican, I am not super worried. Frankly I think that those who care about this topic are already baked into the cake on each side. I think there are a whole bunch of people who fall into that "I may lean this way or that but I don't really care about this topic much" and for them there are a host of negative things about the Democrats that will blunt the majority of the electoral impact of this IMO.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

you're just outright lying again.

that seems to be a go to Pub strategy a lot of the time.

and while all people lie, and both parties lie, lying seems much more a conservative thing than a liberal thing.

imo from decades of observation, Pubs just see lying as an effective means to an end, just good smart strategy, especially when truth works against them, and don't assign a moral attachment to it the way most libs do.

Every single word of this ^^ is a lie.

I know more than a few pro life democrats. Some people believe in the sanctity of life without political or religious affiliation. Some people can think outside a narrow pre- conceived box dictated to them by their "party" and entertainment news.

You are not one of those people, you are instead nothing but radicalized weak-minded fool, and a liar.

What a complete POS...

Just stop!

NY and Colorado both allow abortion on demand without restrictions up to the moment of birth. Those laws didn’t pass themselves. NY was so proud of their law they turned buildings pink. Other states are about to follow.

And if Democrats are so pleased with their abortion laws, why can’t they say so instead of speaking of abortion with benign euphemisms like “women's health care“?

 

[mcmurtry66]

Just stop!

NY and Colorado both allow abortion on demand without restrictions up to the moment of birth. Those laws didn’t pass themselves. NY was so proud of their law they turned buildings pink. Other states are about to follow.

And if Democrats are so pleased with their abortion laws, why can’t they say so instead of speaking of abortion with benign euphemisms like “women's health care“?

DC not New York. Pure evil. Evil. NY is health etc post 24

 

[CO. Hoosier]

DC not New York. Pure evil. Evil. NY is health etc post 24

NY includes “emotional health” and does not require a physician determination. Yeah the words are there, but the effect is to be unrestricted.

 

[Crayfish57]

...says the guy who posted this...


You can see it, right?

Are you familiar with the poster I was replying to? He is the one poster that is consistently a bigger d^ck than you are. Can you see that? Did I put in English for you ? GFY

 

[hoot1]

Maybe they aren't. But they still can't say that. Colorado and NY d abortion laws are otherwise. Most democrats who publicly take a position on abortion will not say they are in favor of any restrictions.

When Democrats say they want to "codify Roe v. Wade," they are lying. They don't want R. v. W. codified. They want much more liberal abortion laws, along the lines of North Korea and China.

It is always interesting to read a solid partisan Republican tell us what most Democrats believe on a complicated issue such as abortion.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

It is always interesting to read a solid partisan Republican tell us what most Democrats believe on a complicated issue such as abortion.

First, I’m mostly talking about what democratically run states have done with abortion.

Second, if any Democrat with a recognizable name has come out pro-life or opposed late-term abortion, I haven’t seen or heard it.

I have no doubt there is much agreement between GOP and Democrats about abortion, but neither party can say it if they hope to run for office.

 

[hoot1]

First, I’m mostly talking about what democratically run states have done with abortion.

Second, if any Democrat with a recognizable name has come out pro-life or opposed late-term abortion, I haven’t seen or heard it.

I have no doubt there is much agreement between GOP and Democrats about abortion, but neither party can say it if they hope to run for office.

First of all, when we talk about what Democrats think about abortions and what laws should be passed, are we talking about ordinary people or politicians ?

I would argue a good many ordinary people, if not most Americans, aren’t as cleanly divided into clear antiabortion and abortion rights camps as we see here at the Water Cooler. Furthermore, one pollster says that in her research she has spoken to many Americans who don’t identify as Democrat or Republican, and has found that many Americans have views on abortion that don’t necessarily fit a partisan profile.

As to politicians on the subject of late term abortions, a Senate bill in 2021 found the following as per this article,

Democratic Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Doug Jones of Alabama and Joe Manchin from West Virginia were the only lawmakers to cross party lines on the born-alive bill. Jones and GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska opposed the late-term abortion ban.

Three senators seeking the Democratic nomination for president - Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota - did not cast votes.

Conclusion, ordinary folks even with party affiliations are less likely to let their party affiliations govern their opinions on the many aspects of the abortion issue than Republican and Democratic Senators as demonstrated on a late term abortion bill vote.

 

[cosmickid]

This issue is similar to the slavery issue. What will probably happen is that Democrats will get their 3/5 compromise from Republicans at a Federal level. The political class is probably a little worried because the only thing that matters to them is the next election, the majority of them have no real convictions past the trappings of office. Power for some. Wealth accumulation for others. There are the "true believers" out there though. You are basically asking abolitionists, "aren't you worried that the whole emancipation proclamation thing might cost an election?" To them, nah, we have those every 2 years. The GOP has been declared dead after almost every major Democrat Presidential election lately. "The Demographics are against you". Until the politics are tweaked and conservative leaning Hispanics start flipping that script.

If I am a Republican, I am not super worried. Frankly I think that those who care about this topic are already baked into the cake on each side. I think there are a whole bunch of people who fall into that "I may lean this way or that but I don't really care about this topic much" and for them there are a host of negative things about the Democrats that will blunt the majority of the electoral impact of this IMO.

"If I am a Republican, I am not super worried. Frankly I think that those who care about this topic are already baked into the cake on each side. I think there are a whole bunch of people who fall into that "I may lean this way or that but I don't really care about this topic much" and for them there are a host of negative things about the Democrats that will blunt the majority of the electoral impact of this IMO."

While I would agree that both sides are baked into the cake, the issue is does it increase Dem participation and reduce apathy for the upcoming midterms, and I believe that is the case. In terms of who Pub and Dem voters intend to vote for in 2022,the numbers are basically the same. Dems plan to vote for Dems and Pubs plan to vote for Pubs. The one huge advantage the Pubs had prior to this week was the enthusiasm gap, and I believe this particular issue galvanizes Dem voters, and in some cases Dem leading Independents as well...

I also think that it's a far cry to evaluate the effects of a theoretical dismantling of Roe that no one seriously thought would occur, with the reality of it happening. I think a great deal of the apathy from Dems in 2016 resulted from the idea that the Pubs would actually do away with Roe was a scare tactic, so Dem voters did not assign the same importance to SCOTUS as Trump voters did. I mean, Trump picked Pence and pointedly referenced SCOTUS repeatedly because he knew that would allow Evangelicals to overcome their distaste for what they basically saw as a candidate with a sinful lifestyle. They basically sold their souls, which he knew would happen...

"Don't it always seem to go, that you don't know what you've got till it's gone"...

We'll see what happens in the suburbs in key Senate races and how GOP candidates navigate the issue in debates. One thing to remember is that all of the Justices voting to dismantle Roe were appointed by Presidents who lost the popular vote. And there isn't a single state in the Union where unilaterally dismantling Roe is a majority opinion.

In 2014 a proposed Constitutional Amendment to maintain "life begins at conception" lost by 30 points in freaking North Dakota. So I'm not sure that even in states where gerrymandered Legislatures pass bills to circumvent Roe that it's a view held by the majority of actual citizens in that state. It's just an overall minority view, so I doubt you'll see Pub candidates touting it as a "victory" during campaigns for the general election after securing Primary wins.

Will see what the aftermath polling says. There was a very interesting ABC/WAPO poll released the week prior to the leak, which showed the Dems with a 1 point lead in the generic ballot. Now beyond the fact that WAPO has an A+ rating as a poll, the real significance is that in Feb the exact same poll showed the Pubs with a 7 point lead in the generic. Imo, this is based on not only Dems coming home, but also Independents who may not like Biden (he was at 42%) still finding themselves unsettled by some of the Pub candidates who are running and in many cases leading in the GOP Primaries.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/01/poll-biden-post-abc/

Again this is before the leak, and at that point the enthusiasm gap was at 10%.And it also predates any actual primaries, when actual candidates emerge and the "generic" fades into oblivion. IMHO, Trumpist candidates give Dems their best shot to win contested general elections. By far the easiest statewide winner in Ohio in Nov will be DeWine, basically because he's not an outspoken Trumper...

Lost among all the pro-Trump euphoria over wins in Ohio GOP Primaries last Tues was the only battle that matched a pro-Trump Pub against a Dem. In a MI (State) House special election to replace the current GOP member who won a Senate seat, the Trump endorsed Robert Regan was heavily favored over Dem Carol Glanville. Not only had that district been held by the GOP since 1993, but it went to Trump by 16 points in 2020. So no one expected a close race, much less an upset win for Glanville.

But she won by 12 points, 52-40 in a race that imho should provide a cautionary tale for the GOP. Like several others who are likely to emerge from GOP Primaries, Regan was a flawed candidate. He had made controversial statements about rape and abuse, he was an anti-vaxxer, and he said Putin went into Ukraine to destroy the bio-labs apparently put there by Soros and Biden...

2022 Michigan May 3 election results: Democrat flips GOP House seat

Michigan held a regular election on May 3 to decide local millages, municipal office seats, and four special state House elections.

www.michigandaily.com

None of that bothered GOP Primary voters in March, but it turns out railing against Soros and advocating the Big Lie can make you look crazy and cause general election voters to reject you, even in a +16% Trump district. And considering there are about 9 GOP candidates facing accusations of sexual assault or domestic abuse and most have Trump's backing and are favored to win their GOP primary, Regan is far from an outlier...So I definitely feel that increased Dem turnout caused by Roe can have a huge effect on some of these races...

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

"If I am a Republican, I am not super worried. Frankly I think that those who care about this topic are already baked into the cake on each side. I think there are a whole bunch of people who fall into that "I may lean this way or that but I don't really care about this topic much" and for them there are a host of negative things about the Democrats that will blunt the majority of the electoral impact of this IMO."

While I would agree that both sides are baked into the cake, the issue is does it increase Dem participation and reduce apathy for the upcoming midterms, and I believe that is the case. In terms of who Pub and Dem voters intend to vote for in 2022,the numbers are basically the same. Dems plan to vote for Dems and Pubs plan to vote for Pubs. The one huge advantage the Pubs had prior to this week was the enthusiasm gap, and I believe this particular issue galvanizes Dem voters, and in some cases Dem leading Independents as well...

I also think that it's a far cry to evaluate the effects of a theoretical dismantling of Roe that no one seriously thought would occur, with the reality of it happening. I think a great deal of the apathy from Dems in 2016 resulted from the idea that the Pubs would actually do away with Roe was a scare tactic, so Dem voters did not assign the same importance to SCOTUS as Trump voters did. I mean, Trump picked Pence and pointedly referenced SCOTUS repeatedly because he knew that would allow Evangelicals to overcome their distaste for what they basically saw as a candidate with a sinful lifestyle. They basically sold their souls, which he knew would happen...

"Don't it always seem to go, that you don't know what you've got till it's gone"...

We'll see what happens in the suburbs in key Senate races and how GOP candidates navigate the issue in debates. One thing to remember is that all of the Justices voting to dismantle Roe were appointed by Presidents who lost the popular vote. And there isn't a single state in the Union where unilaterally dismantling Roe is a majority opinion.

In 2014 a proposed Constitutional Amendment to maintain "life begins at conception" lost by 30 points in freaking North Dakota. So I'm not sure that even in states where gerrymandered Legislatures pass bills to circumvent Roe that it's a view held by the majority of actual citizens in that state. It's just an overall minority view, so I doubt you'll see Pub candidates touting it as a "victory" during campaigns for the general election after securing Primary wins.

Will see what the aftermath polling says. There was a very interesting ABC/WAPO poll released the week prior to the leak, which showed the Dems with a 1 point lead in the generic ballot. Now beyond the fact that WAPO has an A+ rating as a poll, the real significance is that in Feb the exact same poll showed the Pubs with a 7 point lead in the generic. Imo, this is based on not only Dems coming home, but also Independents who may not like Biden (he was at 42%) still finding themselves unsettled by some of the Pub candidates who are running and in many cases leading in the GOP Primaries.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/01/poll-biden-post-abc/

Again this is before the leak, and at that point the enthusiasm gap was at 10%.And it also predates any actual primaries, when actual candidates emerge and the "generic" fades into oblivion. IMHO, Trumpist candidates give Dems their best shot to win contested general elections. By far the easiest statewide winner in Ohio in Nov will be DeWine, basically because he's not an outspoken Trumper...

Lost among all the pro-Trump euphoria over wins in Ohio GOP Primaries last Tues was the only battle that matched a pro-Trump Pub against a Dem. In a MI (State) House special election to replace the current GOP member who won a Senate seat, the Trump endorsed Robert Regan was heavily favored over Dem Carol Glanville. Not only had that district been held by the GOP since 1993, but it went to Trump by 16 points in 2020. So no one expected a close race, much less an upset win for Glanville.

But she won by 12 points, 52-40 in a race that imho should provide a cautionary tale for the GOP. Like several others who are likely to emerge from GOP Primaries, Regan was a flawed candidate. He had made controversial statements about rape and abuse, he was an anti-vaxxer, and he said Putin went into Ukraine to destroy the bio-labs apparently put there by Soros and Biden...

2022 Michigan May 3 election results: Democrat flips GOP House seat

Michigan held a regular election on May 3 to decide local millages, municipal office seats, and four special state House elections.

www.michigandaily.com

None of that bothered GOP Primary voters in March, but it turns out railing against Soros and advocating the Big Lie can make you look crazy and cause general election voters to reject you, even in a +16% Trump district. And considering there are about 9 GOP candidates facing accusations of sexual assault or domestic abuse and most have Trump's backing and are favored to win their GOP primary, Regan is far from an outlier...So I definitely feel that increased Dem turnout caused by Roe can have a huge effect on some of these races...

To prove you are not a Bot, please select three of these images that are a peaceful protest.

 

[cosmickid]

To prove you are not a Bot, please select three of these images that are a peaceful protest.

So you adopt some sort of nonsense promoted by the stupids on the board accusing me of being a "bot", but you never take any of the stupids to task for the nonsense they post? What does being a bot entail for you?

None of Mas's anti-semitic fascist ramblings qualify him as a bot? Crazy posts his usual delusional nonsense and rather than attack him I just post facts which (IMHO) refute his post, and rather than actually address my argument you result to another ad hominem attack on me personally? The homophobic trash you posted last week wasn't enough for you? Are you just incapable of presenting facts, rather than mistakenly assuming anyone is interested in your ridiculous opinion?

If you aren't capable of discussing my post on the merits of what I posted, then just ignore it. In no way was it directed at you in the first place. Crazy presented his opinion (which I consider uneducated and ridiculous per SOS) but I didn't attack him or even tell him how ridiculous and politically unaware it sounds. I just presented a counter argument in which I based my opinion on actual facts.

I disagreed politely and pointed out actual facts which I feel counter his opinion. We won't really know till it all plays out and I realize my opinion could be wrong. But unlike some on this board who operate under the misguided notion that their opinion matters to anyone else, I usually rely on actual facts and link to the sources which provide those facts.

You want to take what I actually posted to task based on something based in facts rather than your opinion have at it. But these personal attacks, esp when I was posting on this board a year or so before you started to, and when at least 3 people on this site know me personally is pretty ****ing ridiculous...

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

So you adopt some sort of nonsense promoted by the stupids on the board accusing me of being a "bot"

Actually, to the best of my knowledge and recollection, I was the first to notice that you are a bot (but that could be argued of course).

I stopped reading after that, #5.

 

[anon_mya1phvcpf5x4]

Actually, to the best of my knowledge and recollection, I was the first to notice that you are a bot (but that could be argued of course).

I stopped reading after that, #5.

Then isn't it disturbing that your posts are 100x shittier than the posts by a "bot"..

Maybe one day you could be as good as a bot.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Then isn't it disturbing that your posts are 100x shittier than the posts by a "bot"..

Maybe one day you could be as good as a bot.

Nothing is worse than a bot. Brainwashed and closed-minded is everything wrong with us at this moment in time.

 

[ORG]

as bad as i feel for women and their men, if the court does strike down Roe, imo it could be the biggest boost to Dem candidates in state races literally ever.

i feel conflicted.

if SCOTUS does overturn Roe, does the plus from the body blow to Pubs in state races across the US, out weigh the harm of a pregnant female having to leave the state once or twice in their lifetime for a day or a couple of days, for an abortion if wanted/needed.

and with Pub's state govt assaults on voting rights, and in some cases elections themselves, shifting into high gear, is that question not more pertinent now than ever?

who wins here?

who wins? I think the millions of human infants who will be given the opportunity to live full lives are the winners and THAT is enough for me.

 

[zeke4ahs]

who wins? I think the millions of human infants who will be given the opportunity to live full lives are the winners and THAT is enough for me.

Pretty naive' in more ways than one.

 

[anon_mya1phvcpf5x4]

who wins? I think the millions of human infants who will be given the opportunity to live full lives are the winners and THAT is enough for me.

I am sure they will be happy for all of the social programs you will support now....or is it more pro birth than actually caring once they are born?

 

[larsIU]

who wins? I think the millions of human infants who will be given the opportunity to live full lives are the winners and THAT is enough for me.

I'm not coming at you ORG but I will repeat what my dad always said.....what the f*ck are we supposed to do with these extra 35+ million people?

 

[hoot1]

who wins? I think the millions of human infants who will be given the opportunity to live full lives are the winners and THAT is enough for me.

My Mother had several natural miscarriages between my Sister who was eleven years older and my birth.

I often think about how lucky I was to be born. I also realize that if I had been another miscarriage, I simply would never have been.

A priest once told me that becoming a priest and giving up pleasures in life such as marriage was a good trade if it improved his chances of spending all eternity in Heaven. If this is true and the unborn who perish go straight to Heaven, then they really might be considered "winners".

 

[mcmurtry66]

I'm not coming at you ORG but I will repeat what my dad always said.....what the f*ck are we supposed to do with these extra 35+ million people?

On top of the million a year in immigrants. Restaurant waits are bad enough now. I F'd up and didn't bother to make Mother's Day reservations. Family drove around for nearly two hours. Everyone pissed

 

[hoot1]

On top of the million a year in immigrants. Restaurant waits are bad enough now. I F'd up and didn't bother to make Mother's Day reservations. Family drove around for nearly two hours. Everyone pissed

I tell my wife, "Why celebrate Mother's Day, when we treat you as if everyday is Mother's Day".

She doesn't buy it.

 

[Lucy01]

"If I am a Republican, I am not super worried. Frankly I think that those who care about this topic are already baked into the cake on each side. I think there are a whole bunch of people who fall into that "I may lean this way or that but I don't really care about this topic much" and for them there are a host of negative things about the Democrats that will blunt the majority of the electoral impact of this IMO."

While I would agree that both sides are baked into the cake, the issue is does it increase Dem participation and reduce apathy for the upcoming midterms, and I believe that is the case. In terms of who Pub and Dem voters intend to vote for in 2022,the numbers are basically the same. Dems plan to vote for Dems and Pubs plan to vote for Pubs. The one huge advantage the Pubs had prior to this week was the enthusiasm gap, and I believe this particular issue galvanizes Dem voters, and in some cases Dem leading Independents as well...

I also think that it's a far cry to evaluate the effects of a theoretical dismantling of Roe that no one seriously thought would occur, with the reality of it happening. I think a great deal of the apathy from Dems in 2016 resulted from the idea that the Pubs would actually do away with Roe was a scare tactic, so Dem voters did not assign the same importance to SCOTUS as Trump voters did. I mean, Trump picked Pence and pointedly referenced SCOTUS repeatedly because he knew that would allow Evangelicals to overcome their distaste for what they basically saw as a candidate with a sinful lifestyle. They basically sold their souls, which he knew would happen...

"Don't it always seem to go, that you don't know what you've got till it's gone"...

We'll see what happens in the suburbs in key Senate races and how GOP candidates navigate the issue in debates. One thing to remember is that all of the Justices voting to dismantle Roe were appointed by Presidents who lost the popular vote. And there isn't a single state in the Union where unilaterally dismantling Roe is a majority opinion.

In 2014 a proposed Constitutional Amendment to maintain "life begins at conception" lost by 30 points in freaking North Dakota. So I'm not sure that even in states where gerrymandered Legislatures pass bills to circumvent Roe that it's a view held by the majority of actual citizens in that state. It's just an overall minority view, so I doubt you'll see Pub candidates touting it as a "victory" during campaigns for the general election after securing Primary wins.

Will see what the aftermath polling says. There was a very interesting ABC/WAPO poll released the week prior to the leak, which showed the Dems with a 1 point lead in the generic ballot. Now beyond the fact that WAPO has an A+ rating as a poll, the real significance is that in Feb the exact same poll showed the Pubs with a 7 point lead in the generic. Imo, this is based on not only Dems coming home, but also Independents who may not like Biden (he was at 42%) still finding themselves unsettled by some of the Pub candidates who are running and in many cases leading in the GOP Primaries.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/01/poll-biden-post-abc/

Again this is before the leak, and at that point the enthusiasm gap was at 10%.And it also predates any actual primaries, when actual candidates emerge and the "generic" fades into oblivion. IMHO, Trumpist candidates give Dems their best shot to win contested general elections. By far the easiest statewide winner in Ohio in Nov will be DeWine, basically because he's not an outspoken Trumper...

Lost among all the pro-Trump euphoria over wins in Ohio GOP Primaries last Tues was the only battle that matched a pro-Trump Pub against a Dem. In a MI (State) House special election to replace the current GOP member who won a Senate seat, the Trump endorsed Robert Regan was heavily favored over Dem Carol Glanville. Not only had that district been held by the GOP since 1993, but it went to Trump by 16 points in 2020. So no one expected a close race, much less an upset win for Glanville.

But she won by 12 points, 52-40 in a race that imho should provide a cautionary tale for the GOP. Like several others who are likely to emerge from GOP Primaries, Regan was a flawed candidate. He had made controversial statements about rape and abuse, he was an anti-vaxxer, and he said Putin went into Ukraine to destroy the bio-labs apparently put there by Soros and Biden...

2022 Michigan May 3 election results: Democrat flips GOP House seat

Michigan held a regular election on May 3 to decide local millages, municipal office seats, and four special state House elections.

www.michigandaily.com

None of that bothered GOP Primary voters in March, but it turns out railing against Soros and advocating the Big Lie can make you look crazy and cause general election voters to reject you, even in a +16% Trump district. And considering there are about 9 GOP candidates facing accusations of sexual assault or domestic abuse and most have Trump's backing and are favored to win their GOP primary, Regan is far from an outlier...So I definitely feel that increased Dem turnout caused by Roe can have a huge effect on some of these races...

TLDR.

 

[larsIU]

On top of the million a year in immigrants. Restaurant waits are bad enough now. I F'd up and didn't bother to make Mother's Day reservations. Family drove around for nearly two hours. Everyone pissed

Cookout. Works every time.

Or even the dreaded (gulp) picnic.

 

[DANC]

To prove you are not a Bot, please select three of these images that are a peaceful protest.

LMAO! Brilliant!

"Post of the Month"

 

[DANC]

I tell my wife, "Why celebrate Mother's Day, when we treat you as if everyday is Mother's Day".

She doesn't buy it.

I tell my wife that, too. For some reason, she doesn't find that humorous.

 

[PhyloeBedoe]

as bad as i feel for women and their men, if the court does strike down Roe, imo it could be the biggest boost to Dem candidates in state races literally ever.

i feel conflicted.

if SCOTUS does overturn Roe, does the plus from the body blow to Pubs in state races across the US, out weigh the harm of a pregnant female having to leave the state once or twice in their lifetime for a day or a couple of days, for an abortion if wanted/needed.

and with Pub's state govt assaults on voting rights, and in some cases elections themselves, shifting into high gear, is that question not more pertinent now than ever?

who wins here?

Just a thought to the original post / question here: I’ve heard so often how there are many single issue voters out there. I’m not one, and I don’t think there are many in this group that are single issue voters. Yet I keep hearing they definitely exist. I know many on the right consider the issue of abortion as the only thing that matters in their voting minds……the success of trump bears that out, as many have lined up behind him ignoring all his faults simply because he will help eliminate abortion. Well, he certainly helped that along with his court appointees.. Now that this goal has been been achieved, there might be a significant enough portion of the voting GOPers that will clap their hands and say “well, thats done…” and sit out the next election, because their work is done. I suspect the slim margins to our elections might be swung to the Dems.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Cookout. Works every time.

Or even the dreaded (gulp) picnic.

With family shirts. LARS FAMILY MOTHER'S DAY 2022

 

[outside shooter]

Data from other countries who have banned abortion are somewhat informative, despite those countries being mostly 3rd world backwaters.

When abortions are outlawed, the rate of abortions remains essentially unchanged. They merely occur in an unregulated environment, with a large increase in poor medical outcomes from shoddily-performed procedures, especially affecting poorer women.

Outlawing abortions to make them go away is like outlawing drugs and pretending that drug use then just goes away.

Make no mistake, almost everyone on both sides of the aisle want abortions to be rare. Removing it from the health care system seems a poor way to accomplish this, however.