So only a miracle victory in the sheep barn followed by a flawless performance in the BTT to make the tourney? What could possibly go wrong?
First team out according to Lundardi
- Thread starter SoccerSammy
- Start date
IU is 13-23 all time in the BTT, the third worst record among B1G teams. If the B1G had relegation, IU would have been kicked out long ago. We are one of the lower tier teams in the B1G now with a low tier athletics department that doesn't really care about winning.
A win at Purdue gets us in, I'm sure...even if we lose to MSU.
A loss at Purdue, and then a win over MSU...might get us in. But I doubt it.
A loss at Purdue, and a win over MSU and Wisconsin and we'll get in.
Finish with 2 losses, and obviously we're out. Of the above scenarios...I'd rank them in terms of likelihood at:
1. Losing both
2. PU loss, MSU win...I think 1 and 2 are pretty close in likelihood.
3. PU loss, 2 BTT wins
4. PU Win, MSU loss
5. PU Win, MSU win
Obviously you can see I don't have much hope for tomorrows game.
Weird feeling that we will be going through door #4.
that State games has the makings of a game where the winner scores in the 50s.
I don't really see a win likely at PU either but if there is a game where a team seizes an opportunity, both in terms of the rivalry matchup at their place and as a last gasp at getting into the tournament, this is it. I would say 20% chance of a surprise performance and win.
Is Sparty locked into the 8th seed? See they are tied with Michigan at 10-9 with Michigan owning the tie breaker. But Michigan is on the road to Ohio State while Sparty is at home to Maryland. Michigan would fall to the 8th in the event they lose while Sparty takes the 7th.
I think it's better that we play Michigan. It will have meant Michigan lost this weekend and further moves them down on the bubble and then loser of IU/Michigan is all but eliminated from contention.
I want to believe this team could some how rally, as they always seem to want to do things the hard way (like children!), but honestly, the table was set so perfectly to win at home and we just had to have that victory and yet we couldn't get there. This team has shown more fight than last year and most of Archie's teams honestly, but I feel like they must be done if they couldn't muster a win vs RU, at home, on senior night with a tourney appearance in the balance. I just don't think these guys have it in them. Hope they prove me wrong.
beginning to think the B1G is going to need some luck with matchups to see even one team make it to the F4. Every team has too many flaws, and too inconsistent, to survive/advance through two tourney weekends. Was going to say Bucky....perhaps, but they won't be allowed to play their WWF defense in the tourney.
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I hadn't looked at it that closely. You're probably right. I think an MSU game still provides us a better resume building opportunity. To the point where I don't think a loss to PU and a win over Michigan, gets us in.
Splitting hairs here, and obviously have no clue what the committee will weigh most heavily. But the MSU win would have held more weight, to be certain.
Hope you're wrong...but its why I put 2 losses as the most likely scenario.
Rutgers is obviously capable, they've beaten a lot of good teams recently. But not being able to close them out, in the situation you described...well its telling.
MSU win would be a nicer resume win, but a neutral win against Michigan would still be Q1 and we'd still need help elsewhere. IF we're playing Michigan State it's because Michigan won at Ohio State and definitely keeps them on the right side of the bubble.
There will be a few key moments where we'll have to weather the Mackey/Senior Day/Revenge game emotion... Start of the game. End of the game. And obviously times when they hit a few shots in a row, or Ivey gets a dunk or something. If we can answer those moments well, we'll have a shot. If not, they'll blow us out.
I don't think Purdue is a ton better basketball team than IU. But they do finish games better, they do have an NBA level playmaker on the perimeter, and then all the above factors will weigh in. Its just a very, very tough task. But this isn't like beating the 76 Hoosiers on the road.
My thought would be that Purdue has the best shot (20%?) to make it to the FF, and that only Purdue & Wisconsin have any reasonable chance to make it to the elite 8.
Believe it or not, this is a perfect let down game for Purdue. This was supposed to be a day where they got to celebrate at least a share of the B10 title, against their rival, on their home court. Suddenly this game has no bearing on any title implications and they're semi-reeling. Crowd will be into it for sure and will be needed to rally their players.
At the same time you can say the same thing about IU after losing to Rutgers, but this is the ultimate do or die situation for IU. If IU has any fuel left in the tank, this will be game till the end. I have a feeling we're running on fumes though however.
probably a fair assessment. Kofi gets into foul trouble in one game and ILL is in trouble. OSU is playing like crap. MSU is barely hanging on. Hell Iowa is playing better than anyone right now aside from Wisky. And luck alone won't carry Wisconsin into the F4. Wouldn't be surprised to see the B1G completely done after the S16 games.
Illinois has the best shot of making it to the F4. They have the best Big in the country and their guards and role players collectively are better than Pudue's and more suited to advance in a tournament like this.
Teams as bad defensively as Purdue don't make it to the Final Four.
MI might be interesting. They obviously had talent based on recruiting and early season rankings (haven't kept up w their season; did they lose anyone important... I mean, other than their HC... hehe, couldn't resist!), and maybe they will rally around their Coach once he's back? I just don't see PU getting very far in the tourney without a better PG, but we'll see!
if Kofi can go through the first few games staying out of foul trouble, they have a shot. They are guard heavy with experience. Little bit streaky as shooters. If Kofi stays on the court and Frazier is hitting, then yeah they'll be a tough out.
Purdue's defense will be their undoing. Same for Iowa, they're on a streak but they don't play D and will be lucky to make it out of the first weekend.
Well.......let's put it this way........if we have a 27 point lead with 8 minutes to go, how likely would it be for us to win?
I said 4% earlier based on Ivy and/or Eddy getting hurt or being in constant foul trouble, or the famous Purdue choke. Only way the later happens is if we are behind but within striking distance with 2-3 minutes left. The chance of us being within striking distance within 2-3 minutes of game's end is quite low. The chance of us pulling off a win in that situation is also low. So really the only chance is injury or serious foul trouble, which is very unlikely at Mackey.
Lol I got a better chance of winning the lottery than IU does of winning the BTT. And I am dead serious.
4 semi final apperances in 27 years. And keep in mind in many years to make the semis they only had to win one game. I am not even sure why we show up we all know how it will end. I honestly do not even bother watching anymore because the outcome is already done. Its one and done and at best one win max.
we're not winning in Mackey. I just checked one site and my eyes must be shot...it said we're only -4 dogs in this game? That can't be right.
They are interesting because they've played 3 great games, v. IU, Purdue & MSU, and many real bad ones. Definitely a Jekyll & Hyde team. Interesting long long long shot for the Final 4.
My gut feeling is that this team is ready to go fishing. The pressure build up to the Rutgers game and epic loss may be too much to overcome for this group. They are known for not being able to finish.
They’re already used to not playing in tournament. Basically routine at this point. As always, hope I’m wrong.
They’re already used to not playing in tournament. Basically routine at this point. As always, hope I’m wrong.
I disagree. They are coming to whip ass. You don’t forget a court rush defeat from your rival. There will be 14,000+ PU fans screaming “Let’s go!” and singing ”Living on a Prayer”. Easy double digit win for PU.
I take no joy in posting that, and would love to be wrong. But feel this is a very likely scenario.
He can't put 3 or 4 straight good games together. Illinois will go out quietly in their 2nd or 3rd game.
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I too think IU will be a massive underdog in this game, but can't deny that the optics of this game are completely different than they were entering this week.
anyone who thinks CMP and that team would be content with 2 losses to IU this year is living in a fantasy world. Likely Ivey's last game in Mackay along with Sasha, WIlliams...no way they want to end on a loss to us. I predict a very physical nasty game, wouldn't surprise me to see TJD again sitting next to CMW before the first TV timeout with 2 fouls.
What's your over/under for dunks by Edey?
Same for 3s by Sasha.
Same for 3s and dunks by Ivy.
He's a rich man's Miller Kopp. Looks fantastic against IU every year, goes 1 for 10 in his last game.
Exactly. They just los two in a row and had the court rushed on them against a rival so they will be fired up. If we stay within 20 I will be surprised. i am not even going to bother watching it I could see Purdue getting out to like a 20-5 lead right off the bat. To those that watch it good luck but I am not looking for a painful Saturday.
I can see that Plummer is the guy that had hit almost 90 threes on the year. Sometimes my judgement gets clouded by how they do against us. For example , Jamie Skelton (?) from OSU many years ago.
There are two games left in season if you do not count the NIT. But I doubt we even win more than one in the NIT the team will be done by that point imo and cannot win more than two in a row anyway. Honestly I will be happy when the season is over there were a few fun games but mostly it was not fun and just the same old crap.
