Expectations

[rikki-tikka-tava]

Expectations and what makes this Season a "success"?

No major and/or chronic injuries. Marked improvement among veterans. Those two things alone (and Woodson wearing suits for away Games) should all but guarantee a great Season.

As for 'benchmarks':

Handling the Heels at AH - early success does not a Season make, but a win against NC would likely secure IU a top ten spot nationally and set the bar for Players/Coaches going forward.

Regular B10 Season and/or Tournament champions. It's time.

#3 Seed or better for the Dance and still playing in April.

As these are 'expectations' they should not be confused with 'predictions'. Predictions would be holding court at Home and top 15 nationally on D. Cannot recall an IU Team with this much experience and athleticism in the last 40 years, so yeah, expecting a lot, especially as The Coach is who he is.

In Woodson we trust.

 

[hookyIU1990]

ok thx for the heads up. Like a fungus that outlasts the medication.

I was gonna say he was like that super gonorrhea strain that laughs at antibiotics, but we can both be right.

 

[BusdriverE]

Agree with the rhetoric of winning the B10 and elite 8 but I think it comes down to is CMW. Obviously he can recruit and get good/great players to come but let’s see how he mixes them together. RMK was a great tourney coach, able to push and get most out of players. Look at Keady and how much he won but never in the big dance. Both coaches and players have a year in Woodys system and know what to expect in defensive schemes and that will make a huge difference and hopefully Woody learned a lot last yr also

 

[Hoosier Clarion]

I lay it out like this, team shoots 1% better in all 3 categories and the D places 4 spots improved from last year and rebounding raises 6 places. I honestly don't know what W/L that earns but it'll be damned fun and much more than "competitive" of interest.

 

[kkott]

I know you've heard me say this before...but polls mean don't mean jackshit until February when the blood starts to spill. Summer polls are just guesses. Even beating Elon or Prairie View in Dec means nothing. Winning in East Lansing in February...that's what we need to start doing regularly (then after that...maybe even a win in Kohl? a kid can dream, right??).

The national media has enjoyed hating on us for a while (RMK hangover perhaps? he always hated them); we have to win bigger to get their respect I suppose. This could be the year we get back on their front page.

my point with the polls is just that objective parties and "internet" experts look at what IU returned, is bringing in and more importantly what happened to the rest of the conference teams and are almost universally pegging us (yeah, I said it!) no lower than 2nd in the conference.

Whereas usually the "fan bias" has fans predicting higher than what others think, I think our program has been down so long, our own fans can't see us succeeding! I remember there was a PU poster on here predicting a top 4 conference finish for them, even losing Ivey and with holes and question marks all over their backcourt, as high as some on here are when we return almost everyone and brought in what looks to be a great freshmen class.

It will be great if we ever return to actually having expectations! Success breeds success, so hopefully this year can (and should) be the start of something positive for IU... Lord knows we are due!

 

[go_iu]

wow. Way to go out on a limb! Again, look at the preseason predictions... this isn't an IU fan thing, virtually everyone sees what this team is returning and has expectations that align there. At worst, I've seen us predicted as the 2nd highest rated B10 team and you think top 4 is improvement? If you don't think this team can win a down B10 conference, what exactly are the factors that need to align for you to ever think, gasp, we might win a conference title?

Yeah well. we did so well last year, getting blown out off the stage by some shit from California... ,,,, please elaborate on how running it back without a very new rotation will do us any good? A good coach would run the talent and back it up with experience. I hope to see that since Race seems to want a doctoral degree in some shit before a real job. Good lord, it is easy to see what is going on? Race is like a single digit role player on a shitty pro-European team, in God knows where? Six years anywhere, are you really going to your resume on like he's even draftable for potential?

 

[IUgradman]

Win at least 25 games including one in the NCAA tournament as a top five seed.

 

[kkott]

Yeah well. we did so well last year, getting blown out off the stage by some shit from California... ,,,, please elaborate on how running it back without a very new rotation will do us any good? A good coach would run the talent and back it up with experience. I hope to see that since Race seems to want a doctoral degree in some shit before a real job. Good lord, it is easy to see what is going on? Race is like a single digit role player on a shitty pro-European team, in God knows where? Six years anywhere, are you really going to your resume on like he's even draftable for potential?

Did you hit the bar early with Kurt C? I really can't discern a point here, other than a rant. Yes, St Marys exposed us and showed our flaws, but I also hope it shows what some discipline and playing within your role can do. We've needed toughness in the worst way since the team that KS put together, but we played some pretty good ball in the B10 tourney and ran out of gas. Remember 91-92 when we got shelled by UCLA in the first game and then shellacked them in the tourney to get to a F4? One game, as bad as St Marys was, doesn't mean anything if we learned from it and work hard over the summer.

 

[So.In.Hoosier95]

Minimum expectations:

- Top 3 finish in B1G regular season
- B1G conference tournament finals
- 4 seed in NCAA tournament
- Sweet 16

With the departures in the list below and IU returning their top 3 in production along with incoming recruits, expectations should be reasonably high.

Big Ten Conference in the 2022 NBA Draft:
Round/Selection, Player, NBA Team
1/4, Keegan Murray (Iowa), Sacramento Kings
1/5, Jaden Ivey (Purdue), Detroit Pistons
1/10, Johnny Davis (Wisconsin), Washington Wizards
1/20, Malaki Branham (Ohio State), San Antonio Spurs
2/32, Caleb Houstan (Michigan), Orlando Magic
2/35, Max Christie (Michigan State), Los Angeles Lakers
2/40, Bryce McGowens (Nebraska), Minnesota Timberwolves
2/41, E.J. Liddell (Ohio State), New Orleans Pelicans
2/43, Moussa Diabaté (Michigan), LA Clippers

 

[B1G_Fan]

that's because we've sucked in the tourney for 25 yrs. Would be nice to get that monkey off our back.

I just don’t think it’s a prestigious accomplishment. I would put getting to the sweet 16 ahead of it.

 

[MG80]

gonna hold off making any predictions until after we make stops in Vegas and Fogg Allen. Then I'll have a better feel. Have to see how the new faces blend with the old faces during games. On-court cohesion trumps summertime projections.
I don't expect us to with both games -AZ and KU- but I'll be a little down if we go 0 for 2, even more so if we get outclassed on the court.
But I will say this, if the term "bubble" even makes an appearance in our conversations this season, I'll be disappointed, and concerned.
The UNC game will be a true statement game for this program.

I remember what a disastrous pre-conference Isiah Thomas's title team had, but then meshed and caught fire. I don't know if this team can win a title yet, because so much has go right for that to happen. But we might go through a similar trajectory, losing some in the pre then coming together for a big run starting Jan. But if Malik and Jason are ready to play, and Tamar makes the big leap we expect, and some others just improve year over year, this potentially could be a very very good squad.

 

[kkott]

I just don’t think it’s a prestigious accomplishment. I would put getting to the sweet 16 ahead of it.

normally I would agree, but the fact that we consider ourselves one of the better bball schools in the B10 and never having won it, and only making the conference finals twice? Embarassing. Ordinarily, I'd agree I'd rather have a S16 appearance, but at this point if I can only have 1, I'd take the BTT title, just for that reason. We've made plenty of S16s and in the scheme of things, no one (players and family members aside) will remember that we made a S16 in 2023, but we can say we finally won a BTT title!

 

[Victorbmyboy]

People are expecting a team that squeaked into the NCAA with a losing record in conference play to be a final 4 team this year seems unrealistic. Unless ft and 3 pt shooting make a huge improvement, I don’t see us being a top 10 team

Great assessment on phantom people saying final 4. IU beats even AU and they will be. I bet they beat both Arizona, UNC at home and ranked top ten.

 

[Chicago-bound Hoosier]

I remember what a disastrous pre-conference Isiah Thomas's title team had, but then meshed and caught fire. I don't know if this team can win a title yet, because so much has go right for that to happen. But we might go through a similar trajectory, losing some in the pre then coming together for a big run starting Jan. But if Malik and Jason are ready to play, and Tamar makes the big leap we expect, and some others just improve year over year, this potentially could be a very very good squad.

88-89 season very similar. Got their clocks cleaned early by Cuse, UNC...gave up 100+ pts each time, then got to New years and won every game out of 25, sans two tough losses to flyin Illini.

 

[hookyIU1990]

88-89 season very similar. Got their clocks cleaned early by Cuse, UNC...gave up 100+ pts each time, then got to New years and won every game out of 25, sans two tough losses to flyin Illini.

Nick of Time Anderson. That was gut wrenching.

 

[Chicago-bound Hoosier]

Nick of Time Anderson. That was gut wrenching.

please don't bring that up again. One of those "I remember exactly where I was" moments in time for me. Painful.

 

[hookyIU1990]

please don't bring that up again. One of those "I remember exactly where I was" moments in time for me. Painful.

Balcony directly across the court for me.

 

[IUNorth]

Balcony directly across the court for me.

That sucked...one of my early memories of IU basketball.

The combination of Illinois not calling the timeout right after the ball went through, and Anderson catching, and taking one dribble left before his shot...it shouldn't have counted.

But the Edwards shot against Michigan, very well could have been late too. It was definitely after double zeroes, but they said it was before the buzzer.

I've leveled it in my head through the years that those two evened themselves out.

 

[cshartle123]

My expectations are that they play with passion. They produced a few good moments last year, but they have an opportunity to take this fanbase to a whole new level of excitement. A top four conference finish and sweet sixteen run would keep the momentum building into the following season.

 

[Pryght]

Marginal Success: Top 4 of the B1G & Sweet 16

Resounding Success: B1G Champion & Elite 8

 

[rikki-tikka-tava]

Yeah well. we did so well last year, getting blown out off the stage by some shit from California... ,,,, please elaborate on how running it back without a very new rotation will do us any good? A good coach would run the talent and back it up with experience. I hope to see that since Race seems to want a doctoral degree in some shit before a real job. Good lord, it is easy to see what is going on? Race is like a single digit role player on a shitty pro-European team, in God knows where? Six years anywhere, are you really going to your resume on like he's even draftable for potential?

Thinking only a fool would view the St. Mary's game as indicative of the Team and upcoming Season. That and your default/abundant use of 'shit' as signifying anything meaningful renders your perspective just so.

The circumstance that left IU a hugely disappointing, short notice play-in game after an exhausting and nearly triumphant B10 Tourney followed by a mandatory flight West to play a fifth game in 7 days stands in stark contrast to a scenario wherein IU receives a slightly better seeding that they probably deserved. Likely a very different story in the latter case...

Grasping the difference between 'then' and 'now' can be challenging for some. GLWT.

 

[Champs1976]

Yeah well. we did so well last year, getting blown out off the stage by some shit from California... ,,,, please elaborate on how running it back without a very new rotation will do us any good? A good coach would run the talent and back it up with experience. I hope to see that since Race seems to want a doctoral degree in some shit before a real job. Good lord, it is easy to see what is going on? Race is like a single digit role player on a shitty pro-European team, in God knows where? Six years anywhere, are you really going to your resume on like he's even draftable for potential?

Yes, but St. Mary's beat Gonzaga. Not a shit from California but a very well coached, disciplined team with a lot of success last year. Correct that we were not ready for them and also a warning that having too much unfounded confidence can get a team destroyed in a game or for a season (IU football last year). I suspect CMW has looked at that film more than a little bit and knows exactly what this team needs to compete at a high level. Plus the players themselves, particularly TJD seem to have a high level of committment. Some have major chips on their shoulders like Tamar. Most want to excel. That's a pretty good starting point for most teams.

I could care less about the BTT, I do think they'll challenge for the B1G regular season championship and should win it even with the schedule. It is beyond my imagination that players would take a step back in skill level in this program and that is what it would take for them to be middle of the pack this season. Injuries might derail them, but absent that most stats for each player will improve over last year.

Lastly, IU will have a lot of depth, non-starting players that will be able to come into games and compete at a high level. The drop off will be less and the contributions will be greater than other team's second stringers. IU is well positioned for a strong run this year, the FF is not out of the question if they grow and gel during the season.

 

[bsmitty08]

Great assessment on phantom people saying final 4. IU beats even AU and they will be. I bet they beat both Arizona, UNC at home and ranked top ten.

What? People in this thread said final 4 and I’m talking end the season top 10.

 

[Victorbmyboy]

What? People in this thread said final 4 and I’m talking end the season top 10.

You greatly exaggerated again. Then backed out of saying top ten. You also discount every move they make. This team didn’t have to come back but they did. I’m riding that ship.

 

[T.M.P.]

Baselines

Success: Conference champs, elite 8

Held Serve: Top 3 conference finish, sweet 16

Failure: outside top 4 in conference, early tourney loss.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

He's already back as jackskip23 and pissing all over the football free board.

Hmmm his MO usually is to slide in quietly pretending to be nice for a week before he starts trashing threads. We shall see.
But yes, Jackasslip is in full glory trashing the FB board right now.

 

[rocketo]

Lot of interesting takes. Very tough to know after just one year. We have some talent coming back and a lot of new talent that is young. There were some glaring issues on the team last year, but it was also year 1 of a new coach and lots of shake-up with new players from the prior year.

While we could have some players take big strides and certainly explode on the scene, I’d say Top 3 in the B1G and Sweet 16 is a successful year. I wouldn’t be surprised to win the B1G or make a final four if things really click with this group. Much worse than this, and I would be a bit disappointed.

 

[aajohn2000]

Where you at this year? What makes this season a success for you? I have pretty high expectations, and think this is a pivotal year for the Mike Woodson tenure, and the Hoosiers getting back to the top of the mountain. We have a ton of momentum right now, and the chance to capitalize is now. We have the horses, time to let them run.

I do think this season is shaping up to be a special one. The depth on this team is real. We really increased the size of this team. We will almost always have 4 6'5+ guys on the floor and X. Big, strong, experienced, hungry.... It is a very good combination.

I will be disappointed with anything less than an elite 8. I think we have a 50/50 shot at going to Houston. We will be a top 3 seed in the big dance. The time is now.

Can we hit shots consistently? IMO, that will determine our trajectory this season. As we’ve seen, tough to win games when you have no one that is a consistent threat outside and/or cannot create shots / offense. That said, like you, I think this is the best team we have had since 2016.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Win the B1G and make the Elite 8. No excuses this season.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Win the B1G and make the Elite 8. No excuses this season.

This indeed would be a very solid season.

 

[IUNorth]

This indeed would be a very solid season.

Can you imagine how painful that Elite 8 loss would be though?!!

I can still feel the Kansas loss in 93...

Great season I'd say. I'd sign up for that right now!

 

[Cavanagh]

Can you imagine how painful that Elite 8 loss would be though?!!

I can still feel the Kansas loss in 93...

Great season I'd say. I'd sign up for that right now!

I wouldn't. But then again, I roll the dice!

 

[MG80]

Baselines

Success: Conference champs, elite 8

Held Serve: Top 3 conference finish, sweet 16

Failure: outside top 4 in conference, early tourney loss.

You nailed it. Very fair goals here given our returning talent and strong incoming talent. Woodson got them started last season, especially on D where good teams build a base. No doubt Woody is now challenging the hell out of them to take a big step and be champions. So looking forward to this next season.

 

[bsmitty08]

You greatly exaggerated again. Then backed out of saying top ten. You also discount every move they make. This team didn’t have to come back but they did. I’m riding that ship.

Yawn, you argue to argue

 

[8Stars5Banners]

there are too many variables that make the tourney a crap shoot.... If we win the B1G or at least have a reasonable chance with 2 weekends left in the season, I'll consider that a success... The tourney is all gravy at that point.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Biggest thing to me is a deep tourney run. We haven't had one in over 20 years. An Elite 8 appearance is vital.

 

[Victorbmyboy]

Yawn, you argue to argue

You are just arguably ignorant.

 

[bsmitty08]

You are just arguably ignorant.

How so? Nothing I stated was ignorant.

 

[TR32]

Difficult to project.

On one hand talent and explosiveness may be similar to the 2008 team that started out so well. Big guards with handles. Elite freshmen talent along with all star big.

On the other hand, almost unparalleled combination of no shooting plus a sub-500 conference team last year.

What to make of it? I think a very successful year in the conference for Woods on is going to be about 14-6. I just wouldn't project more with almost zero three point shooting.

Top 10 guys likely to look like this:

Guards:
Johnson and JHS major minutes. Cannot spare either.
Galloway and Bates need to be better than last year. Especially Bates.

Forwards:
Trayce and Race exceptional
Geronimo and Reneaux major minutes
Kopp is likely to play plenty but could see a slightly diminished role unless he worked like a dog all summer on shooting mechanics.
Banks probably used sparingly.
Duncomb will play a niche roll of guarding huge centers when Trayce/Race have fouls.

Leal and Gunn are just question marks. Both known as shooters but unless Woods on puts in an offense that caters to pure shooters, I don't think they play much unless an injury to the 4 guards. If either proves to be capable of coming in and hitting threes immediately, Galloway may see less time, and that assumes he heals well from his injury.

A lot to prove from the man in charge. His offense was bad last year but the scoring prowess on this team is huge. Guarding the wings is another big question heading into the season. Can anyone shut down the Murray, Houstan, Mc Gowens types?

I like 13-7 or 14-6. Anything more and I will be surprised.

I do like IUs chances in the early games. Veterans and defense can beat cagey freshmen.

 

[Hoosier Clarion]

Difficult to project.

On one hand talent and explosiveness may be similar to the 2008 team that started out so well. Big guards with handles. Elite freshmen talent along with all star big.

On the other hand, almost unparalleled combination of no shooting plus a sub-500 conference team last year.

What to make of it? I think a very successful year in the conference for Woods on is going to be about 14-6. I just wouldn't project more with almost zero three point shooting.

Top 10 guys likely to look like this:

Guards:
Johnson and JHS major minutes. Cannot spare either.
Galloway and Bates need to be better than last year. Especially Bates.

Forwards:
Trayce and Race exceptional
Geronimo and Reneaux major minutes
Kopp is likely to play plenty but could see a slightly diminished role unless he worked like a dog all summer on shooting mechanics.
Banks probably used sparingly.
Duncomb will play a niche roll of guarding huge centers when Trayce/Race have fouls.

Leal and Gunn are just question marks. Both known as shooters but unless Woods on puts in an offense that caters to pure shooters, I don't think they play much unless an injury to the 4 guards. If either proves to be capable of coming in and hitting threes immediately, Galloway may see less time, and that assumes he heals well from his injury.

A lot to prove from the man in charge. His offense was bad last year but the scoring prowess on this team is huge. Guarding the wings is another big question heading into the season. Can anyone shut down the Murray, Houstan, Mc Gowens types?

I like 13-7 or 14-6. Anything more and I will be surprised.

I do like IUs chances in the early games. Veterans and defense can beat cagey freshmen.

Certainly in the realm of possible. Can't argue that. But would add the D Woodson demands and coaches as such will be stronger and will provide some additional road W's. So it's just as possible 14-6 is the floor.