Pace: 68 possessions.
A national average pace is ~69 possessions. This pace didn’t strongly favor Indiana, but it is above IU’s cutoff of 1-7 this year in games with less than 67 possessions.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions):
Purdue -- 101
Indiana -- 94
It’s funny, I just posted in the last efficiency breakdown that when you go on the road in conference play, the goal is to try your hardest to hold the home team below 1.00 points per possession and hope you have a good shooting night.
While the Boilermakers weren’t super effective from the field, they did basically just that to earn a road win in Bloomington. In contrast to several losses this season, Indiana’s offense wasn’t up to the task last night.
Wild game. Not usually one to comment on officiating, but it wasn’t the greatest in this one, and that was amplified by a strange double foul at the end of the game on Bryant-Swanigan that resulted in both fouling out of the game instead of a block or charge call.
This one was a back-and-forth affair. We can see this from the Kenpom win graph – the closer the line gets to the bottom, the game is in Indiana’s favor, while closer to the the top is Purdue.
Indiana’s frontcourt picked up a couple early fouls, and Purdue spent a lot of the rest of the game trying to take it to Indiana down low with mixed results. Swanigan finished 6-for-10 from twos, but Isaac Haas just 2-for-8.
Blackmon’s effectiveness was limited in his return. Purdue made sure to not give him any breathing room even when he was a few feet behind-the-arc, and a couple of his shots got altered or stripped as he took them up. He also missed a very, very key blockout late in the game that led to a Purdue offensive rebound and score. Crean mentioned the play in his postgame comments.
While he’s clearly still limited in what he brings to the table, Newkirk has quietly strung together a couple nice games recently. Only 3-for-9 from the field in this one, but grabbed eight rebounds and dished out three assists with only one turnover.
The freshmen guards might be hitting a wall. Devante Green and Curtis Jones combined for 17 minutes, totaling a combined one assist and two shot attempts between the two. I really particularly liked Jones’ game coming into this year, so it’s surprising to see him struggle as much as he has the last several games.
This might be unpopular with the board – because let me be clear, I’m not making an excuse - but you really did face the reality of Indiana’s injuries late in this one. With Hartman and OG already out, Morgan fouled out with 1:02 to play and Bryant fouled out with 0:44 to play. That left IU with a lineup of Newkirk, Johnson, Blackmon, McRoberts and McSwain with under :40 to play.
IU was down five at that point and that’s the lineup they felt they had to use. Yes, Green and Jones were still available. Yes, I know people will say IU should recruit better and have a full roster of guys ready to go. And yes, this team wasn’t playing great prior to the injuries.
Just acknowledging the reality of the situation late in the game last night. Certainly not ideal.
Indiana Identity Stats:
1) Effective Field Goal Percentage (like regular FG%, but gives 50 percent more credit to three pointers): 45.6 percent. Not going to get it done. IU's season average of 56.2 percent, which ranks 16th nationally.
Indiana falls to 1-8 overall when they shoot worse than 52 percent eFG%.
2) Offensive Rebounding Rate (percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed): 31 percent. Also not as high as you like.
IU grabbed 11 offensive rebounds in 36 chances (Purdue grabbed 25 defensive rebounds.)
IU's season average of 38 percent ranks 10th nationally.
3) Free Throw Differential: 24-16 in favor of Purdue.
Summary/Looking Ahead:
This is the second consecutive game where Indiana didn’t reach its identity stats, and yet the game was still easily within reach. If the Hoosiers end up not making the tournament, this will almost certainly be the two-game stretch we will look back on as THE missed opportunity.
Could have easily picked up both of these very key games without playing your best, and yet, couldn’t get it done.
Disheartening.
I keep using this schedule breakdown because the trend has continued, and if you read these breakdowns weeks ago you could have maybe seen this stretch coming.
Here is an update on this year’s schedule (explanation copied from previous breakdown): Kenpom has three tiers to judge the difficulty of games: Tier “A” games, “B” games and unranked. These tiers are based on a few factors including (obviously) how good the opponent is, but also just as importantly, the location of the game. So many of us underestimate the difference in playing at home vs. playing on the road.
Here is IU’s record thus far this season against the tiers:
· Unranked: 11-1
· Tier “B”: 2-1
· Tier “A”: 2-8
A couple of additional notes:
· IU’s two “A” wins were its first two games of the season against such opponents – Kansas (neutral) and UNC (home.) The Hoosiers have since dropped eight straight: Butler (neutral), Louisville (neutral), Wisconsin (home), Maryland (away), Michigan (away), Northwestern (away), Wisconsin (away) and Purdue (home).
· IU has 6 games remaining on the slate. 4 are “A” games, 2 are “B” games.
Sunday’s game against Michigan is one of the two “B” games left. Given the recent trend of play – and I rarely ever use this term because it is WAY overdone – this game is as close to a “must-win” as it gets.
If the Hoosiers do not beat Michigan on Sunday, the statistical probability – given recent trends – of closing out the season with a NCAA bid becomes very, very remote.
And that’s noting the odds already don’t look very good.
A national average pace is ~69 possessions. This pace didn’t strongly favor Indiana, but it is above IU’s cutoff of 1-7 this year in games with less than 67 possessions.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions):
Purdue -- 101
Indiana -- 94
It’s funny, I just posted in the last efficiency breakdown that when you go on the road in conference play, the goal is to try your hardest to hold the home team below 1.00 points per possession and hope you have a good shooting night.
While the Boilermakers weren’t super effective from the field, they did basically just that to earn a road win in Bloomington. In contrast to several losses this season, Indiana’s offense wasn’t up to the task last night.
Wild game. Not usually one to comment on officiating, but it wasn’t the greatest in this one, and that was amplified by a strange double foul at the end of the game on Bryant-Swanigan that resulted in both fouling out of the game instead of a block or charge call.
This one was a back-and-forth affair. We can see this from the Kenpom win graph – the closer the line gets to the bottom, the game is in Indiana’s favor, while closer to the the top is Purdue.
Indiana’s frontcourt picked up a couple early fouls, and Purdue spent a lot of the rest of the game trying to take it to Indiana down low with mixed results. Swanigan finished 6-for-10 from twos, but Isaac Haas just 2-for-8.
Blackmon’s effectiveness was limited in his return. Purdue made sure to not give him any breathing room even when he was a few feet behind-the-arc, and a couple of his shots got altered or stripped as he took them up. He also missed a very, very key blockout late in the game that led to a Purdue offensive rebound and score. Crean mentioned the play in his postgame comments.
While he’s clearly still limited in what he brings to the table, Newkirk has quietly strung together a couple nice games recently. Only 3-for-9 from the field in this one, but grabbed eight rebounds and dished out three assists with only one turnover.
The freshmen guards might be hitting a wall. Devante Green and Curtis Jones combined for 17 minutes, totaling a combined one assist and two shot attempts between the two. I really particularly liked Jones’ game coming into this year, so it’s surprising to see him struggle as much as he has the last several games.
This might be unpopular with the board – because let me be clear, I’m not making an excuse - but you really did face the reality of Indiana’s injuries late in this one. With Hartman and OG already out, Morgan fouled out with 1:02 to play and Bryant fouled out with 0:44 to play. That left IU with a lineup of Newkirk, Johnson, Blackmon, McRoberts and McSwain with under :40 to play.
IU was down five at that point and that’s the lineup they felt they had to use. Yes, Green and Jones were still available. Yes, I know people will say IU should recruit better and have a full roster of guys ready to go. And yes, this team wasn’t playing great prior to the injuries.
Just acknowledging the reality of the situation late in the game last night. Certainly not ideal.
Indiana Identity Stats:
1) Effective Field Goal Percentage (like regular FG%, but gives 50 percent more credit to three pointers): 45.6 percent. Not going to get it done. IU's season average of 56.2 percent, which ranks 16th nationally.
Indiana falls to 1-8 overall when they shoot worse than 52 percent eFG%.
2) Offensive Rebounding Rate (percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed): 31 percent. Also not as high as you like.
IU grabbed 11 offensive rebounds in 36 chances (Purdue grabbed 25 defensive rebounds.)
IU's season average of 38 percent ranks 10th nationally.
3) Free Throw Differential: 24-16 in favor of Purdue.
Summary/Looking Ahead:
This is the second consecutive game where Indiana didn’t reach its identity stats, and yet the game was still easily within reach. If the Hoosiers end up not making the tournament, this will almost certainly be the two-game stretch we will look back on as THE missed opportunity.
Could have easily picked up both of these very key games without playing your best, and yet, couldn’t get it done.
Disheartening.
I keep using this schedule breakdown because the trend has continued, and if you read these breakdowns weeks ago you could have maybe seen this stretch coming.
Here is an update on this year’s schedule (explanation copied from previous breakdown): Kenpom has three tiers to judge the difficulty of games: Tier “A” games, “B” games and unranked. These tiers are based on a few factors including (obviously) how good the opponent is, but also just as importantly, the location of the game. So many of us underestimate the difference in playing at home vs. playing on the road.
Here is IU’s record thus far this season against the tiers:
· Unranked: 11-1
· Tier “B”: 2-1
· Tier “A”: 2-8
A couple of additional notes:
· IU’s two “A” wins were its first two games of the season against such opponents – Kansas (neutral) and UNC (home.) The Hoosiers have since dropped eight straight: Butler (neutral), Louisville (neutral), Wisconsin (home), Maryland (away), Michigan (away), Northwestern (away), Wisconsin (away) and Purdue (home).
· IU has 6 games remaining on the slate. 4 are “A” games, 2 are “B” games.
Sunday’s game against Michigan is one of the two “B” games left. Given the recent trend of play – and I rarely ever use this term because it is WAY overdone – this game is as close to a “must-win” as it gets.
If the Hoosiers do not beat Michigan on Sunday, the statistical probability – given recent trends – of closing out the season with a NCAA bid becomes very, very remote.
And that’s noting the odds already don’t look very good.
