In case anyone missed it this week, I plan to incorporate Kenpom.com stats a ton into our coverage this year. So before tonight tips off, we are going over the basics behind each key statistic.
Part 1: Kenpom Basics
Part 2: Turnover Rate
Part 3: Rebounding Rate
Part 4: Effective Field Goal Percentage
Today - in the last of this series - we look at free throw rate.
What is free throw rate? In one sentence, free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is just a more accurate version of free throws per game.
If a team plays at a faster pace, that means they have more possessions in a game. That means a chance for more fouls to be called, and more free throws, by default.
That could lead to making a mistake of comparing the free throw attempts per game between Team A and Team B, and assuming one team is better than getting to the line than the other. When really, maybe Team A just plays more possessions each game than Team B.
A really interesting note when diving into the math of free throw rate is how important free throw differential is (taking more free throw attempts than your opponent) compared to free throw percentage made.
That research, courtesy of Kenpom.com shows a couple things. The number of times you get to the line is almost just as important your free throw percentage, limiting your opponent’s free throws is more important than both of those factors, and free throw differential is clearly the most important of all four.
How does this happen? Let’s look at an example.
The most efficient offense nationally last year when looking at raw numbers was Indiana, who averaged 1.19 points per possession.
Let’s say you have a 60 percent free throw shooter, which we all know is pretty bad.
In five trips to the line (that’s five possessions,) he makes 6-of-10 free throws.
That’s six points in five possessions. 6 / 5 = 1.20 points per possession.
Now, obviously you’d have to adjust that for trips where you miss the front end of a one-and-one. The above example assumes two free throw attempts on all five trips.
Nevertheless, it wouldn’t fall that far. Just being a bit better than a 60 percent free throw shooter is going to end up a plus for you a lot of the time.
That makes the biggest key not shooting free throws at a high percentage, but getting to the line more than your opponent. Earning more attempts is going to give you more trips down the floor with a high points per possession rate, even if you don’t shoot free throws at a great percentage.
Where did Indiana rank last year? The Hoosiers checked in at 250th nationally with a 33.9 percent FTA/FGA rate on offense and 49th nationally only allowing a 30.2 percent free throw rate.
Indiana didn’t get to the line very much, but they didn’t put their opponent on the stripe much either. Criticize the Hoosier’s defense for a lot of things, but at least they keep free throw differential down. Of all the stats we’ve discussed so far, this was Indiana’s best ranking last year on defense.
What is good and bad? Here's a tier to go by.
2016 free throw rate rankings (offense):
No. 1 nationally: Virginia Tech, 49.4%.
No. 25: Northern Colorado, 43.4%.
No. 100: Hofstra, 39.5%
No. 234: George Mason, 34.4%
No. 351 (Worst in D1): Liberty, 25.5%
2016 free throw rate rankings (defense):
No. 1 nationally: Utah, 23.0%.
No. 25: Providence, 28.0%.
No. 100: Harvard, 33.5%
No. 234: Campbell, 39.3%
No. 351 (Worst in D1): West Virginia, 55.3%
Three takeaways:
Part 1: Kenpom Basics
Part 2: Turnover Rate
Part 3: Rebounding Rate
Part 4: Effective Field Goal Percentage
Today - in the last of this series - we look at free throw rate.
What is free throw rate? In one sentence, free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is just a more accurate version of free throws per game.
If a team plays at a faster pace, that means they have more possessions in a game. That means a chance for more fouls to be called, and more free throws, by default.
That could lead to making a mistake of comparing the free throw attempts per game between Team A and Team B, and assuming one team is better than getting to the line than the other. When really, maybe Team A just plays more possessions each game than Team B.
A really interesting note when diving into the math of free throw rate is how important free throw differential is (taking more free throw attempts than your opponent) compared to free throw percentage made.
That research, courtesy of Kenpom.com shows a couple things. The number of times you get to the line is almost just as important your free throw percentage, limiting your opponent’s free throws is more important than both of those factors, and free throw differential is clearly the most important of all four.
How does this happen? Let’s look at an example.
The most efficient offense nationally last year when looking at raw numbers was Indiana, who averaged 1.19 points per possession.
Let’s say you have a 60 percent free throw shooter, which we all know is pretty bad.
In five trips to the line (that’s five possessions,) he makes 6-of-10 free throws.
That’s six points in five possessions. 6 / 5 = 1.20 points per possession.
Now, obviously you’d have to adjust that for trips where you miss the front end of a one-and-one. The above example assumes two free throw attempts on all five trips.
Nevertheless, it wouldn’t fall that far. Just being a bit better than a 60 percent free throw shooter is going to end up a plus for you a lot of the time.
That makes the biggest key not shooting free throws at a high percentage, but getting to the line more than your opponent. Earning more attempts is going to give you more trips down the floor with a high points per possession rate, even if you don’t shoot free throws at a great percentage.
Where did Indiana rank last year? The Hoosiers checked in at 250th nationally with a 33.9 percent FTA/FGA rate on offense and 49th nationally only allowing a 30.2 percent free throw rate.
Indiana didn’t get to the line very much, but they didn’t put their opponent on the stripe much either. Criticize the Hoosier’s defense for a lot of things, but at least they keep free throw differential down. Of all the stats we’ve discussed so far, this was Indiana’s best ranking last year on defense.
What is good and bad? Here's a tier to go by.
2016 free throw rate rankings (offense):
No. 1 nationally: Virginia Tech, 49.4%.
No. 25: Northern Colorado, 43.4%.
No. 100: Hofstra, 39.5%
No. 234: George Mason, 34.4%
No. 351 (Worst in D1): Liberty, 25.5%
2016 free throw rate rankings (defense):
No. 1 nationally: Utah, 23.0%.
No. 25: Providence, 28.0%.
No. 100: Harvard, 33.5%
No. 234: Campbell, 39.3%
No. 351 (Worst in D1): West Virginia, 55.3%
Three takeaways:
- Free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is better to use than free throw attempts per game because the latter can be skewed depending on tempo.
- Math suggests that getting to the stripe more than your opponent is of greater importance than shooting a high free throw percentage.
- Indiana maybe doesn’t do many things well defensively, but one thing they get right is trying to limit opponents free throw chances, which math shows is pretty important.
