Early betting

[Marvin the Martian]

If one translates the early betting line to percentages, according to Electoralvote.com using paddypower's lines:

Here are the implied probabilities: Biden (33%), Harris (25%), Buttigieg (11%), Ocasio-Cortez (6%), Beto O'Rourke (6%), Sen. Bernie Sanders (6%), Stacey Abrams (6%), Andrew Yang (4%), Booker (4%), and Warren (3%). Also noteworthy are Andrew Cuomo and Hillary Clinton at 2% each. We would estimate the probability for either of them at exactly zero. Tied for last place, at 0.6%, are Neil deGrasse Tyson, Rachel Maddow, Angelina Jolie, Mark Zuckerberg, Chelsea Clinton, Bill Gates, Al Franken and Jake Tapper.

What about the Republican side? Here they are: Trump (48%), Ron DeSantis (17%), Nikki Haley (14%), Mike Pence (8%), Tucker Carlson (6%), Gov. Kristi Noem (5%), Sen. Marco Rubio (4%), Sen. Tim Scott (4%), Sen. Tom Cotton (4%), Sen. Ted Cruz (4%), Mike Pompeo (4%), and Ye, whose name change from Kanye West was announced this week (3%). Tied for last place here at 0.4% are Sidney Powell, Lin Wood, and Jon Voight.

Republicans are favored 55-50 to win (house take is why nothing adds up to 100).

 

[mcmurtry66]

If one translates the early betting line to percentages, according to Electoralvote.com using paddypower's lines:

Here are the implied probabilities: Biden (33%), Harris (25%), Buttigieg (11%), Ocasio-Cortez (6%), Beto O'Rourke (6%), Sen. Bernie Sanders (6%), Stacey Abrams (6%), Andrew Yang (4%), Booker (4%), and Warren (3%). Also noteworthy are Andrew Cuomo and Hillary Clinton at 2% each. We would estimate the probability for either of them at exactly zero. Tied for last place, at 0.6%, are Neil deGrasse Tyson, Rachel Maddow, Angelina Jolie, Mark Zuckerberg, Chelsea Clinton, Bill Gates, Al Franken and Jake Tapper.

What about the Republican side? Here they are: Trump (48%), Ron DeSantis (17%), Nikki Haley (14%), Mike Pence (8%), Tucker Carlson (6%), Gov. Kristi Noem (5%), Sen. Marco Rubio (4%), Sen. Tim Scott (4%), Sen. Tom Cotton (4%), Sen. Ted Cruz (4%), Mike Pompeo (4%), and Ye, whose name change from Kanye West was announced this week (3%). Tied for last place here at 0.4% are Sidney Powell, Lin Wood, and Jon Voight.

Republicans are favored 55-50 to win (house take is why nothing adds up to 100).

So the far left is actually the left and trump still reigns.

What's behind door number 3? I'll take that

 

[bailey777]

If one translates the early betting line to percentages, according to Electoralvote.com using paddypower's lines:

Here are the implied probabilities: Biden (33%), Harris (25%), Buttigieg (11%), Ocasio-Cortez (6%), Beto O'Rourke (6%), Sen. Bernie Sanders (6%), Stacey Abrams (6%), Andrew Yang (4%), Booker (4%), and Warren (3%). Also noteworthy are Andrew Cuomo and Hillary Clinton at 2% each. We would estimate the probability for either of them at exactly zero. Tied for last place, at 0.6%, are Neil deGrasse Tyson, Rachel Maddow, Angelina Jolie, Mark Zuckerberg, Chelsea Clinton, Bill Gates, Al Franken and Jake Tapper.

What about the Republican side? Here they are: Trump (48%), Ron DeSantis (17%), Nikki Haley (14%), Mike Pence (8%), Tucker Carlson (6%), Gov. Kristi Noem (5%), Sen. Marco Rubio (4%), Sen. Tim Scott (4%), Sen. Tom Cotton (4%), Sen. Ted Cruz (4%), Mike Pompeo (4%), and Ye, whose name change from Kanye West was announced this week (3%). Tied for last place here at 0.4% are Sidney Powell, Lin Wood, and Jon Voight.

Republicans are favored 55-50 to win (house take is why nothing adds up to 100).

There is no way Biden runs again it will be Harris or Buttigieg. Biden has to claim he will run again or he would be a lame duck president. He kind of already is but he still has to say he would run again.

If Harris was actually popular and well liked they probably would have already forced biden out by now. But if you go off what the two below dem pollsters say you probably could not even run Harris. Biden and Harris are too far left and have shown no interest going more moderate at all.

What does this mean for 2022?​

Given this data, in addition to data showing Republicans are favored overall on the generic congressional ballot, Schoen and Cooperman predicted that Democrats stand to lose in a "landslide" in 2022.

"If the Democratic Party continues down its current ill-fated path of embracing progressive policies while overlooking manifest political realities, we will almost certainly see a landslide GOP victory in 2022," the duo wrote at The Hill.


In fact, the data sends a "resounding message to national Democrats," according to Schoen and Cooperman: Return to moderate politics, embrace fiscal responsibility, a deliver on "practical economic and social policies."


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