November 4, 2022 | DaddyHoosier | iufb.net
All-time Series – Penn State leads 23-2
Previous Meeting – Penn St won 24-0 in University Park last season
SP+ – Penn St 15, Indiana 85
CBS Sports 131 – Penn St 16, Indiana 92
PFF Power Ranking – Penn St 15, Indiana 107
SP+ Projected Score – Penn St 36 – Indiana 18
SP+ Win Probability – Penn St 85%
ESPN Pick Center Projected Score – Penn St 32 – Indiana 18
Scheme
Penn State runs a Spread Offense, Mike Yurcich is their Offensive Coordinator.
The Nittany Lions run a 4-3 / 4-2-5 Defense and Manny Diaz is their Defensive Coordinator.
Rushing
Penn State’s Rush Offense is 54th in FBS averaging 170 yards per game. Backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combine for 134.8 ypg. Indiana is allowing 155.2 ypg on the ground (83rd FBS). PFF grades PSU’s Rush Offense as 80th and IU’s Run Defense as 43rd. If PFF is correct Indiana may be able to hold their own. Indiana Linebacker Aaron Casey is tied for 3rd in the Big Ten averaging 1.13 Tackles for a Loss per contest. Casey is also tied for 7th in the Conference in Total Tackles (66).
Indiana’s Rush Offense is 128th in FBS gaining 80.4 ypg. Penn St allows 134.9 ypg (57th). PFF grades the Nittany Lions Rush D as 118th in the country so perhaps there are some technique issues that IU can exploit? Or perhaps the technique is poor but they are athletic enough to get away with it?
Passing
Penn State’s Pass Offense is 49th in the country in terms of ypg (260.9) but PFF grades them as 35th. Indiana allows 259.5 ypg through the air which is currently 102nd in FBS. PFF’s coverage grade for IU has them 116th in the country.
Penn State’s quarterback situation is interesting as Head Coach James Franklin more or less indicated that they are considering handing over the keys of the offense to Freshman Drew Allar. Allar is a Five-Star recruit who is likely going to be very good. Senior Sean Clifford has not played badly (1,816 yards, 16 TDs, 6 Ints, 62.8%) but he has battled inconsistency in his career and he does not have top tier arm strength. Allar, on the other hand, can really spin it. But of course he is a freshman and there is a learning curve.
(Editor’s Note: My hunch is that we will see Allar Saturday. I expect him to hit the ground running but this does give Indiana the opportunity to disguise some coverages and maybe force the freshman into a mistake or two.)
Sophomore Wide Receiver Parker Washington is their primary threat through the air. Washington leads the team with 41 catches for 567 yards and 2 TDs. He is coming off a career day against Ohio St where he had 11 grabs for 179 yards and a score.
Indiana’s Pass Offense is decent in terms of ypg (265.2, 44th) but in terms off efficiency Junior Quarterback Connor Bazelak ranks 115th in the country. A big indicator of this is yards per completion – again Baze is near the bottom of the country at 10.09 just yards per. Penn St does allow 248 ypg through the air (89th) but they’ve only allowed 7 passing TDs so their bend but don’t break style has been effective. Junior Cornerback Joey Porter Jr will likely be a first round pick in the NFL Draft next April. He and the other Corner Kalen King have a combined 22 Pass Break-ups. Senior Safety Ji’Ayir Brown leads PSU with 3 Interceptions. IU’s leading receiver Cam Camper is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Pass Rush
Penn State has 17.0 sacks on the season (2.12/g, 63rd). PFF rates PSU’s Pass Rush 19th in FBS. Indiana has allowed 22.0 sacks (2.75/g, 99th). PFF rates IU’s Pass Blocking 115th in the country.
IU has 15.5 sacks (1.94/g, 83rd). PFF rates IU’s Pass Rush 125th in FBS. PSU has allowed 12 sacks (1.5/g, 36th). PFF rates PSU’s Pass Blocking 67th in the country.
Indiana’s Pas Blocking and Pas Rush will both need to step up tomorrow.
Other Key Stats
Penn State’s Red Zone Offense ranks 14th in the country and their Red Zone Defense is 22nd. If Indiana is thinking upset they will need to flip this script.
PSU is +3 in Turnover Margin and IU is -4. Indiana cannot lose this battle if they want to give themselves a chance.
Prediction
Indiana has some uncertainty of their own at the quarterback position. When asked about potential changes Head Coach Tom Allen replied that he would use the bye week to re-evaluate every position including quarterback. If a change is to be made many believe that the new starter could be Sophomore Dexter Williams. Even though Jack Tuttle has another year of eligibility he has already declared that he will enter the Transfer Portal on December 5th. It doesn’t make much sense to invest in developing someone who won’t be here in four games plus Williams has mobility that could possibly jump-start an offense that is looking to be a more consistent threat.
(Editor’s Note: I expect Baze to still be the starter but wouldn’t be shocked to see Williams get the nod. Also if Baze continues to struggle I see no reason at this point to give Williams a good look off the bench.)
This Penn State Offense is capable of putting up big numbers but IU has had two weeks to get healthy and to codify their game plan. The big question is can the Indiana Offense produce enough points to give the Hoosiers a chance? IU will likely need at least 27 or 28 points.
From Penn State’s point of view Maryland next week may be the only game they are worried about which makes tomorrow a potential trap game. A lot of the players on Indiana’s roster have already beaten Penn St so if the Hoosiers can get off to a good start they can play with confidence and make a game of it. Expect this one to be closer than people think but at the end of the day Penn St prevails 34-24.
All-time Series – Penn State leads 23-2
Previous Meeting – Penn St won 24-0 in University Park last season
SP+ – Penn St 15, Indiana 85
CBS Sports 131 – Penn St 16, Indiana 92
PFF Power Ranking – Penn St 15, Indiana 107
SP+ Projected Score – Penn St 36 – Indiana 18
SP+ Win Probability – Penn St 85%
ESPN Pick Center Projected Score – Penn St 32 – Indiana 18
Scheme
Penn State runs a Spread Offense, Mike Yurcich is their Offensive Coordinator.
The Nittany Lions run a 4-3 / 4-2-5 Defense and Manny Diaz is their Defensive Coordinator.
Rushing
Penn State’s Rush Offense is 54th in FBS averaging 170 yards per game. Backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combine for 134.8 ypg. Indiana is allowing 155.2 ypg on the ground (83rd FBS). PFF grades PSU’s Rush Offense as 80th and IU’s Run Defense as 43rd. If PFF is correct Indiana may be able to hold their own. Indiana Linebacker Aaron Casey is tied for 3rd in the Big Ten averaging 1.13 Tackles for a Loss per contest. Casey is also tied for 7th in the Conference in Total Tackles (66).
Indiana’s Rush Offense is 128th in FBS gaining 80.4 ypg. Penn St allows 134.9 ypg (57th). PFF grades the Nittany Lions Rush D as 118th in the country so perhaps there are some technique issues that IU can exploit? Or perhaps the technique is poor but they are athletic enough to get away with it?
Passing
Penn State’s Pass Offense is 49th in the country in terms of ypg (260.9) but PFF grades them as 35th. Indiana allows 259.5 ypg through the air which is currently 102nd in FBS. PFF’s coverage grade for IU has them 116th in the country.
Penn State’s quarterback situation is interesting as Head Coach James Franklin more or less indicated that they are considering handing over the keys of the offense to Freshman Drew Allar. Allar is a Five-Star recruit who is likely going to be very good. Senior Sean Clifford has not played badly (1,816 yards, 16 TDs, 6 Ints, 62.8%) but he has battled inconsistency in his career and he does not have top tier arm strength. Allar, on the other hand, can really spin it. But of course he is a freshman and there is a learning curve.
(Editor’s Note: My hunch is that we will see Allar Saturday. I expect him to hit the ground running but this does give Indiana the opportunity to disguise some coverages and maybe force the freshman into a mistake or two.)
Sophomore Wide Receiver Parker Washington is their primary threat through the air. Washington leads the team with 41 catches for 567 yards and 2 TDs. He is coming off a career day against Ohio St where he had 11 grabs for 179 yards and a score.
Indiana’s Pass Offense is decent in terms of ypg (265.2, 44th) but in terms off efficiency Junior Quarterback Connor Bazelak ranks 115th in the country. A big indicator of this is yards per completion – again Baze is near the bottom of the country at 10.09 just yards per. Penn St does allow 248 ypg through the air (89th) but they’ve only allowed 7 passing TDs so their bend but don’t break style has been effective. Junior Cornerback Joey Porter Jr will likely be a first round pick in the NFL Draft next April. He and the other Corner Kalen King have a combined 22 Pass Break-ups. Senior Safety Ji’Ayir Brown leads PSU with 3 Interceptions. IU’s leading receiver Cam Camper is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Pass Rush
Penn State has 17.0 sacks on the season (2.12/g, 63rd). PFF rates PSU’s Pass Rush 19th in FBS. Indiana has allowed 22.0 sacks (2.75/g, 99th). PFF rates IU’s Pass Blocking 115th in the country.
IU has 15.5 sacks (1.94/g, 83rd). PFF rates IU’s Pass Rush 125th in FBS. PSU has allowed 12 sacks (1.5/g, 36th). PFF rates PSU’s Pass Blocking 67th in the country.
Indiana’s Pas Blocking and Pas Rush will both need to step up tomorrow.
Other Key Stats
Penn State’s Red Zone Offense ranks 14th in the country and their Red Zone Defense is 22nd. If Indiana is thinking upset they will need to flip this script.
PSU is +3 in Turnover Margin and IU is -4. Indiana cannot lose this battle if they want to give themselves a chance.
Prediction
Indiana has some uncertainty of their own at the quarterback position. When asked about potential changes Head Coach Tom Allen replied that he would use the bye week to re-evaluate every position including quarterback. If a change is to be made many believe that the new starter could be Sophomore Dexter Williams. Even though Jack Tuttle has another year of eligibility he has already declared that he will enter the Transfer Portal on December 5th. It doesn’t make much sense to invest in developing someone who won’t be here in four games plus Williams has mobility that could possibly jump-start an offense that is looking to be a more consistent threat.
(Editor’s Note: I expect Baze to still be the starter but wouldn’t be shocked to see Williams get the nod. Also if Baze continues to struggle I see no reason at this point to give Williams a good look off the bench.)
This Penn State Offense is capable of putting up big numbers but IU has had two weeks to get healthy and to codify their game plan. The big question is can the Indiana Offense produce enough points to give the Hoosiers a chance? IU will likely need at least 27 or 28 points.
From Penn State’s point of view Maryland next week may be the only game they are worried about which makes tomorrow a potential trap game. A lot of the players on Indiana’s roster have already beaten Penn St so if the Hoosiers can get off to a good start they can play with confidence and make a game of it. Expect this one to be closer than people think but at the end of the day Penn St prevails 34-24.
