Desmond Bane-Unrated

[CriticArisen]

Desmond Bane put on a shooting exhibition last night in the Memphis victory over the TWolves. He played high school ball at a small Catholic school in Richmond and was completely unrated as a senior even though he averaged 30 ppg graduating in 2016. There are still good shooters in Indiana that are overlooked and not rated highly, or at all, by the rating services. I hope Coach Woodson's staff doesn't just join the bandwagon and let the rating services dictate recruiting targets.

If you have a fan base that overrates the ranking services then politically the easiest thing to do but not optimal for W/L success of the program.

 

[kkott]

Desmond Bane put on a shooting exhibition last night in the Memphis victory over the TWolves. He played high school ball at a small Catholic school in Richmond and was completely unrated as a senior even though he averaged 30 ppg graduating in 2016. There are still good shooters in Indiana that are overlooked and not rated highly, or at all, by the rating services. I hope Coach Woodson's staff doesn't just join the bandwagon and let the rating services dictate recruiting targets.

If you have a fan base that overrates the ranking services then politically the easiest thing to do but not optimal for W/L success of the program.

Just because you find the needle in the haystack, doesn't immediately mean all the straw is gold. There are always outliers and exceptions, but it would be silly to waste your time trying to find that needle, and allow that to take anytime away from what should be your focus as recruiters: the kids who are 4 and 5 stars. Keep your ears open, but your eyes on the prize!

Ja Morant's story isn't that unkown, but close. He was playing on and overshadowed by Zion on their AAU team when Murray St's coach took a break from watching games, and happened to walk past their game and noticed a small scrawny kid ballin'.

 

[CriticArisen]

Just because you find the needle in the haystack, doesn't immediately mean all the straw is gold. There are always outliers and exceptions, but it would be silly to waste your time trying to find that needle, and allow that to take anytime away from what should be your focus as recruiters: the kids who are 4 and 5 stars. Keep your ears open, but your eyes on the prize!

Ja Morant's story isn't that unkown, but close. He was playing on and overshadowed by Zion on their AAU team when Murray St's coach took a break from watching games, and happened to walk past their game and noticed a small scrawny kid ballin'.

I went through the all american stats of recent years in a recent post and quite often 60% of All Americans were outside the Top 100 as high school seniors. Its not by any means a needle in a haystack.. The ratings tend to overrate bigs and power players and under rate shooters and finesse players. The ratings tend to be based on AAU ball that isn't a perfect model for NCAA bball.

 

[CriticArisen]

Just because you find the needle in the haystack, doesn't immediately mean all the straw is gold. There are always outliers and exceptions, but it would be silly to waste your time trying to find that needle, and allow that to take anytime away from what should be your focus as recruiters: the kids who are 4 and 5 stars. Keep your ears open, but your eyes on the prize!

Ja Morant's story isn't that unkown, but close. He was playing on and overshadowed by Zion on their AAU team when Murray St's coach took a break from watching games, and happened to walk past their game and noticed a small scrawny kid ballin'.

Here are some details-


Of the first team All Americans this season Johnny Davis, Ogbaji, and Keegan Murray all outside the consensus top 100.

On second team Mathurin outside top 100.

On 3rd team Gillespie and Notae outside top 100.

I haven't looked at it in enough detail to say for sure but I suspect that the rating services tend to rely on AAU ball that tends to favor the power game and individual play and maybe undervalues defense. They tend to identify bigs and athletic power players but more often miss less athletic shooters and elite non-power finesse players.

Based on this season's all americans the odds are 5/15=33% of an all american being outside top 100 and for first team all american 60% chance outside top 100.

My conclusion is that definitely worth your time to see as many players as you can outside the Top 100. You have a good chance of finding undervalued and under-recruited players that can hugely impact a program. Everyone looks at Top 100 and so outside Top 100 is an excellent resource for a program that has excellent eyes-on scouting and doesn't over rely on the AAU program.

I looked at 2019 All Americans and again 3 first team outside Top 100-Ja Morant, Rui Hachimura, and Grant Williams.

On 2019 second team All Americans 3 were outside Top 100-Culver, Edwards, and Happ.

 

[kkott]

I went through the all american stats of recent years in a recent post and quite often 60% of All Americans were outside the Top 100 as high school seniors. Its not by any means a needle in a haystack.. The ratings tend to overrate bigs and power players and under rate shooters and finesse players. The ratings tend to be based on AAU ball that isn't a perfect model for NCAA bball.

you should become an assistant coach and lead recruiter. Be the happiest year of your life!

You do know that the only reason it's not loaded with 4 and 5 stars is because so many of those kids who would have been AA's as upperclassmen already went to the NBA, right?

PS, and I agree with you, always keep your ears open and pay attention to every player on the floor when you're recruiting (and tapes that come in because GA's and staff can review those), but if you invest any significant portion of your recruiting time in kids that aren't at least 4 stars, the payback will be too little. The entire AAU process is geared around having the ability to see a ton of players in one outing, but any major D1 program has to invest the majority of their time in 4* or better kids.

 

[Cavanagh]

Just because you find the needle in the haystack, doesn't immediately mean all the straw is gold. There are always outliers and exceptions, but it would be silly to waste your time trying to find that needle, and allow that to take anytime away from what should be your focus as recruiters: the kids who are 4 and 5 stars. Keep your ears open, but your eyes on the prize!

Ja Morant's story isn't that unkown, but close. He was playing on and overshadowed by Zion on their AAU team when Murray St's coach took a break from watching games, and happened to walk past their game and noticed a small scrawny kid ballin'.

Newton isn’t scrony, but he is the first guy we have got that has potential to be one of those athletic freaks like ja and Ivey

 

[kkott]

Newton isn’t scrony, but he is the first guy we have got that has potential to be one of those athletic freaks like ja and Ivey

like freaks; athletic and otherwise!

JG is a pretty exceptional athlete. OG, VO and Troy Williams; we've had a few. Justin Smith was a great leaper, but man, his head wasn't in the game when he was here. Think he just didn't get along with Archie. Thought his attitude seemed much better at AR.

 

[CriticArisen]

you should become an assistant coach and lead recruiter. Be the happiest year of your life!

You do know that the only reason it's not loaded with 4 and 5 stars is because so many of those kids who would have been AA's as upperclassmen already went to the NBA, right?

I do know that. They left school before they could contribute at the highest level as a collegian. This last season Ogbaji was an all american and also led Kansas to a national championship and not top 100. Do you think his all american status should have an asterisk because a senior?

 

[CriticArisen]

you should become an assistant coach and lead recruiter. Be the happiest year of your life!

You do know that the only reason it's not loaded with 4 and 5 stars is because so many of those kids who would have been AA's as upperclassmen already went to the NBA, right?

PS, and I agree with you, always keep your ears open and pay attention to every player on the floor when you're recruiting (and tapes that come in because GA's and staff can review those), but if you invest any significant portion of your recruiting time in kids that aren't at least 4 stars, the payback will be too little. The entire AAU process is geared around having the ability to see a ton of players in one outing, but any major D1 program has to invest the majority of their time in 4* or better kids.

As best I remember Kyle Guy was the last five star on a national championship team and as a senior.

 

[Cavanagh]

like freaks; athletic and otherwise!

JG is a pretty exceptional athlete. OG, VO and Troy Williams; we've had a few. Justin Smith was a great leaper, but man, his head wasn't in the game when he was here. Think he just didn't get along with Archie. Thought his attitude seemed much better at AR.

Justin doesn't love bball, just like Romeo. Talent will only get you so far. Sometimes it gets you all the way to the NBA! but if you dont love the game, it shows.

We got a bunch of dudes that love the game this year. Tamar isn't a freak athlete but I am bullish on how good he is gonna be. He is a killer. I see his midrange and scoring ability taking off this year.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

We got a bunch of dudes that love the game this year. Tamar isn't a freak athlete but I am bullish on how good he is gonna be. He is a killer. I see his midrange and scoring ability taking off this year.

We need it to.

 

[Cavanagh]

We need it to.

He’s hungry!

 

[Courtsensetwo]

He’s hungry!

Get him some wings.

 

[CriticArisen]

Justin doesn't love bball, just like Romeo. Talent will only get you so far. Sometimes it gets you all the way to the NBA! but if you dont love the game, it shows.

We got a bunch of dudes that love the game this year. Tamar isn't a freak athlete but I am bullish on how good he is gonna be. He is a killer. I see his midrange and scoring ability taking off this year.

I hope it happens. He demonstrated this season he has no fear of putting up a shot which is a big plus.

 

[Cavanagh]

I hope it happens. He demonstrated this season he has no fear of putting up a shot which is a big plus.

Also hit some big FTs. That shit matters. Look at a players eyes when they walk to the line. Tamar looked like he was about to snipe.

 

[kkott]

Also hit some big FTs. That shit matters. Look at a players eyes when they walk to the line. Tamar looked like he was about to snipe.

I'd be willing to bet that almost every player considered a "winnner"'s FT percentage is 10 pts better in the last 5 minutes of a game, just like great baseball players batting % gets better w runners in scoring position. Heck I remember some NBA playoff games were Shaq was actually a competent FT shooter at the ends of games.

I'm hopeful that guys like JHS, Reneau, and Newton, along with Bates are those kinds of guys. Man, how we've needed that!

 

[kkott]

I do know that. They left school before they could contribute at the highest level as a collegian. This last season Ogbaji was an all american and also led Kansas to a national championship and not top 100. Do you think his all american status should have an asterisk because a senior?

Absolutely not, I think kids who stay 4 years deserve more credit and accolades personally. I'm just saying you're using a measurement that is inherently stacked against very highly rated recruits as justification for recruiting kids outside the top 100 and I think that's flawed logic.

 

[Cavanagh]

I'd be willing to bet that almost every player considered a "winnner"'s FT percentage is 10 pts better in the last 5 minutes of a game, just like great baseball players batting % gets better w runners in scoring position. Heck I remember some NBA playoff games were Shaq was actually a competent FT shooter at the ends of games.

I'm hopeful that guys like JHS, Reneau, and Newton, along with Bates are those kinds of guys. Man, how we've needed that!

100%. Need killers.

 

[kkott]

As best I remember Kyle Guy was the last five star on a national championship team and as a senior.

Guy left after his junior year.

 

[bawlmer]

100%. Need killers.

I'd put XJ in this group of guys who want to be at the line at the end of games, and generally has a killer's attitude. If he improves his late-game decision-making, look out!

 

[Cavanagh]

I'd put XJ in this group of guys who want to be at the line at the end of games, and generally has a killer's attitude. If he improves his late-game decision-making, look out!

Oh X and Tamar are my favorite players. Both 100% killers. Xavier could be special this year.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

I'd put XJ in this group of guys who want to be at the line at the end of games, and generally has a killer's attitude. If he improves his late-game decision-making, look out!

Late game decision making and keeping the emotion in check are keys to X's success.

 

[IUNorth]

Desmond Bane put on a shooting exhibition last night in the Memphis victory over the TWolves. He played high school ball at a small Catholic school in Richmond and was completely unrated as a senior even though he averaged 30 ppg graduating in 2016. There are still good shooters in Indiana that are overlooked and not rated highly, or at all, by the rating services. I hope Coach Woodson's staff doesn't just join the bandwagon and let the rating services dictate recruiting targets.

If you have a fan base that overrates the ranking services then politically the easiest thing to do but not optimal for W/L success of the program.

When Woodson and staff go to AAU events...they'll quickly pick out the best players that everyone else picks out. And those will nearly all end up being 4 and 5 star players.

Obviously there are others running around that don't jump out as much as stars as the 4 and 5 star kids do, that are really good players. And/or there are tons that just haven't developed as much yet as the 4 and 5 star kids have...that will develop into studs in college.

But how on earth is a college coach supposed to spend the time it would take trying to unearth those types of kids, when they have to stay on top of the 4 and 5 star kids, and their entourages?

If you fill a roster with 10 3 star or worse kids, that you have a feeling will become Desmond Banes...the odds say you'll have 1 that hits, maybe.

If you fill a roster with 10 4 and 5 star kids, you'll have a handful that don't hit, but a bunch that will.

Look at the most successful NCAA programs. Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Villanova, Carolina, Gonzaga these days, Arizona... Obviously there are Baylor, Wisconsin, Texas Tech type programs that have popped up recently and had success with less than 4 and 5 star kids. But those programs I mentioned first are good every year. Like every single year. And its because they fill their rosters every year with 4 and 5 star kids.

Finding the right highly rated kids is the key to success. Not trying to focus on finding Desmond Banes.

 

[Hatchets7times]

Newton isn’t scrony, but he is the first guy we have got that has potential to be one of those athletic freaks like ja and Ivey

Had a friend tell me the other day..
He'll probably jump a bunch in the rankings

Newton isn’t scrony, but he is the first guy we have got that has potential to be one of those athletic freaks like ja and Ivey

Had a friend tell me the other day.
Don't be surprised to see Newton jump a bunch in the player rankings..
He was impressed by him..

 

[Cavanagh]

Had a friend tell me the other day..
He'll probably jump a bunch in the rankings

Had a friend tell me the other day.
Don't be surprised to see Newton jump a bunch in the player rankings..
He was impressed by him..

If he can shoot he will be unstoppable. Crazy explosive.

 

[CriticArisen]

Get him some wings.

When Woodson and staff go to AAU events...they'll quickly pick out the best players that everyone else picks out. And those will nearly all end up being 4 and 5 star players.

Obviously there are others running around that don't jump out as much as stars as the 4 and 5 star kids do, that are really good players. And/or there are tons that just haven't developed as much yet as the 4 and 5 star kids have...that will develop into studs in college.

But how on earth is a college coach supposed to spend the time it would take trying to unearth those types of kids, when they have to stay on top of the 4 and 5 star kids, and their entourages?

If you fill a roster with 10 3 star or worse kids, that you have a feeling will become Desmond Banes...the odds say you'll have 1 that hits, maybe.

If you fill a roster with 10 4 and 5 star kids, you'll have a handful that don't hit, but a bunch that will.

Look at the most successful NCAA programs. Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Villanova, Carolina, Gonzaga these days, Arizona... Obviously there are Baylor, Wisconsin, Texas Tech type programs that have popped up recently and had success with less than 4 and 5 star kids. But those programs I mentioned first are good every year. Like every single year. And its because they fill their rosters every year with 4 and 5 star kids.

Finding the right highly rated kids is the key to success. Not trying to focus on finding Desmond Banes.

Have you looked at Rupps Rafters the last few seasons to see how KY fans view their "most successful NCAA program". On your list of successful programs Kansas was led by Ogbaji (shooting gaurd outside top 100), Villanova led by Gillespie (point guard outside top 200), and Kentucky out first round had five star TyTy at guard.

IU has a tough path ahead to return to national championship contention. No problem if you believe IU can jump on the ratings metoo bandwagon and be successful. I don't believe it is possible and think the coaching staff does have to be smarter and do need to be better judges of talent and do need to work harder than other top flight programs. Will it be difficult-hell yes.

The ratings tend to identify bigs and power players better than shooters and finesse players. IU needs to look wherever possible to find players that can return the program to national competitiveness. I would look for shooters that didnt score well in the ratings. Jay Wright (and staff) has been able to find them as has Bill Self (and staff) Calipari not so much. IU needs to do a better job then these programs to return to the top. We have seen an example of signing a recruit based only on a five star rating. I looked at video after his signing and similar to others here thought WTF.

Jeez, Desmond Bane was a 30 ppg scorer in high school. It's not like he woke up one morning in the dorm at TCU and miraculously could suddenly shoot. He averaged 30 ppg senior year in high school and was Big 12 freshman player of the year and beat Kansas with two end of regulation free throws that year. There was no miracle jump in ability after he entered college. No pact with the devil for a jump shot.

God help the kid that for some reason can't play AAU in the summer with a ratings only fan base.

On the other hand if we sign top 100 players that can shoot and participate in returning to a national championship then no one will be happier than me. I just don't think it is a realistic strategy at this time.

 

[BusdriverE]

Ya can't recruit everyone and yes, you will miss on some kids....Scott skiles led the state in scoring his sr yr, was tough as nails and lead Plymouth to the state championship.....and went to Michigan state dont recall knight getting dragged over the coals for missing out on that one, maybe because he had some other good players?

 

[CriticArisen]

The general point is that it is not NBALive with player ratings and a few simple rules to determine who wins. Your competitors know a boatload about basketball and have beaucoup resources and have a current beneficial reputation and so the IU coaching staff does need to be better than them at evaluating talent. Real life is harder than NBALive.

Knight was great at putting together teams that maybe weren’t the greatest athletes but could play winning NCAA basketball. He did recruit some great shooters.

Skiles was tough and the Plymouth win was a great accomplishment. Bain is just an example that there are players outside the ratings that are elite shooters, not ranked highly, and in Bains case only 100 miles from Bloomington.

 

[CriticArisen]

I just don’t think the strategy of-Hey we are IU and we used to be good in basketball-is going to fill the roster with national championship top 100 players. I never claimed that we shouldn’t recruit top 100 players only that I doubt that alone will lead to a national championship. Woodson and staff have a tough road ahead and I have no confidence that an easy strategy of-oh we’ll just sign top 100 players now-is realistic.

Hopefully more than that in the works or next banner will be a long time coming.

 

[Hoosier in Mad Town]

We make this too hard.

Find the best shooters who can play defense and you win.

Westbroook, Ja, Ivey, Vic, yada yada. Great athletes. Didn’t win anything.

Go find the Guys, Pooles, Thompsons, Brunsons, Harts and win.

 

[CriticArisen]

We make this too hard.

Find the best shooters who can play defense and you win.

Westbroook, Ja, Ivey, Vic, yada yada. Great athletes. Didn’t win anything.

Go find the Guys, Pooles, Thompsons, Brunsons, Harts and win.

3 and D-winning combo

 

[BusdriverE]

You may have from time to time a kid that the staff misses on, turns out to be better than they thought but because there are so many of us giving tips on kids who we think will make it, they know most of them. The most recent example would be the Luke Brown saga, great shooter, score a lot of points, do it against great defense......goes to ball state, doesn't play much, doesn't score much. Will he turn out to be a great scorer? Maybe but shows us the coaches know something we don't

 

[Hoosier Clarion]

100%. Need killers.

Clutch performers. Scoring, rebounding, assists and playing big D. Lots of that happens between the ears. Knight was so good at establishing that mentality. Coach Woodson drives that positively as TO's, assists, RB's have noticeably improved. Inbounds plays after timeouts have been producing. FT's a tad. Nothing builds mental toughness better than a HC possessing the same.

 

[Cavanagh]

Clutch performers. Scoring, rebounding, assists and playing big D. Lots of that happens between the ears. Knight was so good at establishing that mentality. Coach Woodson drives that positively as TO's, assists, RB's have noticeably improved. Inbounds plays after timeouts have been producing. FT's a tad. Nothing builds mental toughness better than a HC possessing the same.

Love this. X and Tamar were made for verbal lashings like Knight gave. I am a firm believer that for some men, that kind of teaching is the best way. Was for me. You wanted the best out of me? Drill sergeant mentality for sure. Beat my ass till I learned.

Woody knows his players too. RIDES X during the game, and X responds. Love it.

 

[Hoosier Clarion]

Love this. X and Tamar were made for verbal lashings like Knight gave. I am a firm believer that for some men, that kind of teaching is the best way. Was for me. You wanted the best out of me? Drill sergeant mentality for sure. Beat my ass till I learned.

Woody knows his players too. RIDES X during the game, and X responds. Love it.

Many youngins need an aggressive rein.

 

[CriticArisen]

Love this. X and Tamar were made for verbal lashings like Knight gave. I am a firm believer that for some men, that kind of teaching is the best way. Was for me. You wanted the best out of me? Drill sergeant mentality for sure. Beat my ass till I learned.

Woody knows his players too. RIDES X during the game, and X responds. Love it

The same for me-difficult to get my attention.