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BradStevens said:
Not enough to employ hundreds of millions of people of varying degrees of intelligence, abilities, etc.
Click to expand...
BradStevens said:
It's not necessarily a matter of wanting to compete in those areas, it's about having industries that provide decent jobs with dignity for people of under 100 IQ, for example--you know, half the society.
Click to expand...

Hundreds of millions of people aren't going to be working in manufacturing. This isn't 1924 or even 1974.

There are still tons of operator jobs for laymen, including those you don't need degrees for in those facilities. We need to push more people to become engineers, but also we need the production staff.

Either way, we are in a services era and that isn't changing. China is royally fvcked because it doesn't have enough demand for services as its manufacturing demand is shrinking.
 
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Spartans9312 said:
founders.archives.gov

Founders Online: Alexander Hamilton’s Final Version of the Report on the Subjec …

Alexander Hamilton’s Final Version of the Report on the Subject of Manufactures, [5 December 1791]
founders.archives.gov founders.archives.gov

“The expediency of encouraging manufactures in the United States, which was not long since deemed very questionable, appears at this time to be pretty generally admitted”

“In a community situated like that of the United States, the public purse must supply the deficiency of private resource. In what can it be so useful as in prompting and improving the efforts of industry?”

It’s an argument as old as time.
Click to expand...
Contra Friedman. And probably Milei.
 
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JamieDimonsBalls said:
Hundreds of millions of people aren't going to be working in manufacturing. This isn't 1924 or even 1974.

There are still tons of operator jobs for laymen, including those you don't need degrees for in those facilities. We need to push more people to become engineers, but also we need the production staff.

Either way, we are in a services era and that isn't changing. China is royally fvcked because it doesn't have enough demand for services as its manufacturing demand is shrinking.
Click to expand...
I get it. I'm just trying to spell out the concern.

And it's a concern that isn't solved by bringing a bunch of high-tech jobs that require a lot of education.
 
JamieDimonsBalls said:
Hundreds of millions of people aren't going to be working in manufacturing. This isn't 1924 or even 1974.

There are still tons of operator jobs for laymen, including those you don't need degrees for in those facilities. We need to push more people to become engineers, but also we need the production staff.

Either way, we are in a services era and that isn't changing. China is royally fvcked because it doesn't have enough demand for services as its manufacturing demand is shrinking.
Click to expand...
Why is its manufacturing demand shrinking?

If the nationalists have their way, our economy will be changing.
 
BradStevens said:
Contra Friedman. And probably Milei.
Click to expand...
They were having similar discussions during the founding era

“To endeavor by the extraordinary patronage of government, to accelerate the growth of manufactures, is in fact, to endeavor, by force and art, to transfer the natural current of industry, from a more, to a less beneficial channel. Whatever has such a tendency must necessarily be unwise. Indeed it can hardly ever be wise in a government, to attempt to give a direction to the industry of its citizens. This under the quicksighted guidance of private interest, will, if left to itself, infallibly find its own way to the most profitable employment: and ‘‘tis by such employment, that the public prosperity will be most effectually promoted. To leave industry to itself, therefore, is, in almost every case, the soundest as well as the simplest policy.”
 
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Spartans9312 said:
founders.archives.gov

Founders Online: Alexander Hamilton’s Final Version of the Report on the Subjec …

Alexander Hamilton’s Final Version of the Report on the Subject of Manufactures, [5 December 1791]
founders.archives.gov founders.archives.gov

“The expediency of encouraging manufactures in the United States, which was not long since deemed very questionable, appears at this time to be pretty generally admitted”

“In a community situated like that of the United States, the public purse must supply the deficiency of private resource. In what can it be so useful as in prompting and improving the efforts of industry?”

It’s an argument as old as time.
Click to expand...

That's a silly argument in this context.

"The embarrassments, which have obstructed the progress of our external trade, have led to serious reflections on the necessity of enlarging the sphere of our domestic commerce: the restrictive regulations, which in foreign markets abrige the vent of the increasing surplus of our Agricultural produce, serve to beget an earnest desire, that a more extensive demand for that surplus may be created at home"

That is not an argument for trade surplus.

And then you have the labor cost phenomenon...

As to the promoting of emigration from foreign Countries. Men reluctantly quit one course of occupation and livelihood for another, unless invited to it by very apparent and proximate advantages. Many, who would go from one country to another, if they had a prospect of continuing with more benefit the callings, to which they have been educated, will often not be tempted to change their situation, by the hope of doing better, in some other way. Manufacturers, who listening to the powerful invitations of a better price for their fabrics, or their labour, of greater cheapness of provisions and raw materials, of an exemption from the chief part of the taxes burthens and restraints, which they endure in the old world, of greater personal independence and consequence, under the operation of a more equal government, and of what is far more precious than mere religious toleration—a perfect equality of religious privileges; would probably flock from Europe to the United States to pursue their own trades or professions, if they were once made sensible of the advantages they would enjoy, and were inspired with an assurance of encouragement and employment, will, with difficulty, be induced to transplant themselves, with a view to becoming Cultivators of Land.

In other words, Hamilton acknowledged the US labor advantage vs. the "old world". You don't think he would acknowledge the same centuries later?
 
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BradStevens said:
Why is its manufacturing demand shrinking?

If the nationalists have their way, our economy will be changing.
Click to expand...

Because in developed economies, there is a threshold for goods and a much higher threshold for services. The iphone alone replaced dozens of manufactured products (e.g., maps, pedometers, phone, computer) in a tiny box.

And a strong service sector isn't a bad thing:

carnegieendowment.org

Don’t Be Afraid of the Service Sector

The ability of the service sector to generate growth is widely underestimated. So long as country avoid taking protective measures and harness their competitive advantages, countries should welcome larger service sectors.
carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org

Moreover, due to precision requirements and efficiency, manufacturing jobs are never going to be as plentiful as they were. We need automation and robotics because they are quicker and more accurate. The automation cells that are producing neurosensors that go into your brain cannot be made by humans.
 
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BradStevens said:
I actually developed a lot of these ideas drinking in bars throughout Austin, trying to get a rise out of my Texas drinking buddies and arguing throughout the night. Drunken policy debates were fun, especially in the pre-internet age, when you could just make up stats or references and insist they were true.
Click to expand...

The Persians believed that one had to reach a decision when drunk, and then later sober. That seems exceedingly wise to me.
 
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BradStevens said:
Why is its manufacturing demand shrinking?

If the nationalists have their way, our economy will be changing.
Click to expand...
It’s almost like something is broken…….

Thinking Pensando GIF by Pantaya
 
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JamieDimonsBalls said:
No. Trump doesn't know how to control spending, like most pretend fiscal conservatives.
Click to expand...
Another bad idea to elect a man or woman so near death, they care not about what they leave. 25% of our federal debt in 2020 while crowing about the “greatest economy” is what we will see again I wager
 
JamieDimonsBalls said:
That's a silly argument in this context.

"The embarrassments, which have obstructed the progress of our external trade, have led to serious reflections on the necessity of enlarging the sphere of our domestic commerce: the restrictive regulations, which in foreign markets abrige the vent of the increasing surplus of our Agricultural produce, serve to beget an earnest desire, that a more extensive demand for that surplus may be created at home"

That is not an argument for trade surplus.

And then you have the labor cost phenomenon...

As to the promoting of emigration from foreign Countries. Men reluctantly quit one course of occupation and livelihood for another, unless invited to it by very apparent and proximate advantages. Many, who would go from one country to another, if they had a prospect of continuing with more benefit the callings, to which they have been educated, will often not be tempted to change their situation, by the hope of doing better, in some other way. Manufacturers, who listening to the powerful invitations of a better price for their fabrics, or their labour, of greater cheapness of provisions and raw materials, of an exemption from the chief part of the taxes burthens and restraints, which they endure in the old world, of greater personal independence and consequence, under the operation of a more equal government, and of what is far more precious than mere religious toleration—a perfect equality of religious privileges; would probably flock from Europe to the United States to pursue their own trades or professions, if they were once made sensible of the advantages they would enjoy, and were inspired with an assurance of encouragement and employment, will, with difficulty, be induced to transplant themselves, with a view to becoming Cultivators of Land.

In other words, Hamilton acknowledged the US labor advantage vs. the "old world". You don't think he would acknowledge the same centuries later?
Click to expand...
I think he would argue for a federal role in promoting industry.

“One of these turns on the proposition, that Industry, if left to itself, will naturally find its way to the most useful and profitable employment: whence it is inferred, that manufactures without the aid of government will grow up as soon and as fast, as the natural state of things and the interest of the community may require. Against the solidity of this hypothesis, in the full latitude of the terms, very cogent reasons may be offered. These have relation to—the strong influence of habit and the spirit of imitation—the fear of want of success in untried enterprises—the intrinsic difficulties incident to first essays towards a competition with those who have previously attained to perfection in the business to be attempted—the bounties premiums and other artificial encouragements, with which foreign nations second the exertions of their own Citizens in the branches, in which they are to be rivalled.”
 
Spartans9312 said:
I think he would argue for a federal role in promoting industry.

“One of these turns on the proposition, that Industry, if left to itself, will naturally find its way to the most useful and profitable employment: whence it is inferred, that manufactures without the aid of government will grow up as soon and as fast, as the natural state of things and the interest of the community may require. Against the solidity of this hypothesis, in the full latitude of the terms, very cogent reasons may be offered. These have relation to—the strong influence of habit and the spirit of imitation—the fear of want of success in untried enterprises—the intrinsic difficulties incident to first essays towards a competition with those who have previously attained to perfection in the business to be attempted—the bounties premiums and other artificial encouragements, with which foreign nations second the exertions of their own Citizens in the branches, in which they are to be rivalled.”
Click to expand...

Are you advocating for state-owned enterprise? Federal subsidy programs? What do you seek federal government to do?
 
BradStevens said:
Not enough to employ hundreds of millions of people of varying degrees of intelligence, abilities, etc.
Click to expand...

Brad, you bring up something which I've always thought about.

Absolutely sure we have tens of millions among us whose intelligence and potential abilities are unmeasured and go about being lost.

Diamonds in the rough.

Admittedly I was born into a favorable start in life. Have met lots of people over the years whose intelligence and skill sets are far superior to mine, but just didn't have the head start which I had.
 
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JamieDimonsBalls said:
Are you advocating for state-owned enterprise? Federal subsidy programs? What do you seek federal government to do?
Click to expand...
I find it interesting to see the arguments that were being had in the 18th century. It’s fascinating.

He says markets will not “infallibly” accomplish anything.

“Animals, Plants and Minerals acquire a utility and value, which were before unexplored”…manufacturing, supply chains, industry

“The community is benefitted by the services of its respective members, in the manner, in which each can serve it with most effect”…employment opportunities in manufacturing has value

“These changes would be likely to be more tardy than might consist with the interest either of individuals or of the Society”…job change would pose a problem

I agree with subsidization of the semiconductor industry. I think the quota Reagan placed on Japanese auto imports had a positive effect. I think each proposal should be considered on its own.

So wherever that pigeonholes me
 
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JamieDimonsBalls said:
Hundreds of millions of people aren't going to be working in manufacturing. This isn't 1924 or even 1974.

There are still tons of operator jobs for laymen, including those you don't need degrees for in those facilities. We need to push more people to become engineers, but also we need the production staff.

Either way, we are in a services era and that isn't changing. China is royally fvcked because it doesn't have enough demand for services as its manufacturing demand is shrinking.
Click to expand...
I’m watching buy now on Netflix. Basically about how we’ve gone crazy with consumption. Convenience of purchasing affordability and the intentional obsolescence of so many products. @UncleMark they’re talking about how companies are making products like laptops/computers that no longer can be repaired. Tamper proof or glued cell phones so you can’t repair them. You have to replace. Interesting in the context of tariffs and manufacturing and consumption etc
 
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twenty02 said:
Then what is your point? You think we should create high trade barriers to incentivize production of low margin consumer commodities just so we can keep low skilled, low IQ people employed?
Click to expand...
I made my point fairly clearly in post #123.

We need to concern ourselves with how to keep low to average skilled and IQ people employed, yes. Not living on govt checks, but employed with jobs and living with dignity. I haven't advocated a particular solution, but am pointing out that the nationalists' and populists's concern is a reasonable one.

If your response is "fvck them, it's their fault" or "let's use government subsidies to get more jobs like mine that pay a ton of money that those people can never get," or even "hey, GDP is up, no worry here," then you shouldn't be surprised to lose elections to populists who address the issue, even with bad solutions. Because, again, half the country has an IQ of 100 or less and they vote, too.
 
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UncleMark said:
More to it than just making them hard to repair physically. Check out iFixIt and the "right to repair" movement.
Click to expand...
John Deere fought the right to repair for years and finally was forced to start allowing access to their IP. Maybe too little, too late. They're hurting as a result of ag and construction looking elsewhere for equipment, coupled with higher interest rates and customers who are dealing with horrible market conditions. They've been laying off white and blue collar workers all summer and just announced they were idling lines that produced hay and forage equipment.



You need a free acount for the link, but here's the copy pasta of the summary

Summary​

  • John Deere's revenue and profits surged in recent years due to a number of tailwinds.
  • Falling commodity prices, high customer debt levels, and geopolitical uncertainty are likely to impact demand for machinery going forward.
  • While Deere's margins have held up fairly well so far, declining revenue and pricing pressure could soon change this.
  • Deere's valuation may appear reasonable, but this requires the company to maintain revenue and margins far above historical levels.
 
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hookyIU1990 said:
John Deere fought the right to repair for years and finally was forced to start allowing access to their IP. Maybe too little, too late. They're hurting as a result of ag and construction looking elsewhere for equipment, coupled with higher interest rates and customers who are dealing with horrible market conditions. They've been laying off white and blue collar workers all summer and just announced they were idling lines that produced hay and forage equipment.



You need a free acount for the link, but here's the copy pasta of the summary

Summary​

  • John Deere's revenue and profits surged in recent years due to a number of tailwinds.
  • Falling commodity prices, high customer debt levels, and geopolitical uncertainty are likely to impact demand for machinery going forward.
  • While Deere's margins have held up fairly well so far, declining revenue and pricing pressure could soon change this.
  • Deere's valuation may appear reasonable, but this requires the company to maintain revenue and margins far above historical levels.
Click to expand...
@snarlcakes could solve John Deere's problems pretty easily.
 
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BradStevens said:
It's a sweet movie! No sex!

My Big Fat Greek Wedding Movie Review

Iconic culture-clash romcom has innuendo, mild language. Read Common Sense Media's My Big Fat Greek Wedding review, age rating, and parents guide.
www.commonsensemedia.org www.commonsensemedia.org

As opposed to Narcos, which my son just talked me into watching with him. We have to fast forward a lot.
Click to expand...
Mindhunters has the most unnecessarily over the top sex scene it of anything i've seen in a decade. It was pointless and was only there b/c both actors are hot.

Like, seriously. So unnecessary it put me off the show for like two weeks.
 
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BradStevens said:
It's a sweet movie! No sex!

My Big Fat Greek Wedding Movie Review

Iconic culture-clash romcom has innuendo, mild language. Read Common Sense Media's My Big Fat Greek Wedding review, age rating, and parents guide.
www.commonsensemedia.org www.commonsensemedia.org

As opposed to Narcos, which my son just talked me into watching with him. We have to fast forward a lot.
Click to expand...
Spent 4 days with a group of guys last week hunting birds, including 2 father/son pairs. Friday night we're back at the house the outfitter puts us up in and we're waiting for the Tyson undercard to start. Yellowstone was on. One of the dads told his 22 year old son that he probably shouldn't watch it due to the language and violence. I was floored. The kid is a senior in college and daddy is still telling him what he can and can't watch.
 
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larsIU said:
Mindhunters has the most unnecessarily over the top sex scene it of anything i've seen in a decade. It was pointless and was only there b/c both actors are hot.

Like, seriously. So unnecessary it put me off the show for like two weeks.
Click to expand...
I felt that way about Oppenheimer. Then when they ran it back, I was like WTF?
 
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