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Debt

And have a little pen in the back yard. Call it renewable fried chicken and the grass under the cage will be green. Win Win.

My in laws bought some chickens last fall. Five in total. One of them was found dead in their "pen" (which is like a chicken resort - they went all out for this thing). My youngest found her.

Her first thought, we're eating good tonight. She instantly wanted to fry her up.

We had pizza that night.

(Have you ever played chicken noises to them? They literally stop what they're doing and start running around looking for the sound. My kids will tell siri to play chicken noises and they go nuts. Pretty amusing.)
 
My in laws bought some chickens last fall. Five in total. One of them was found dead in their "pen" (which is like a chicken resort - they went all out for this thing). My youngest found her.

Her first thought, we're eating good tonight. She instantly wanted to fry her up.

We had pizza that night.

(Have you ever played chicken noises to them? They literally stop what they're doing and start running around looking for the sound. My kids will tell siri to play chicken noises and they go nuts. Pretty amusing.)
I'm breathlessly awaiting the coming debate on who was more responsible for the death of that chicken: Trump or Biden.
 
My in laws bought some chickens last fall. Five in total. One of them was found dead in their "pen" (which is like a chicken resort - they went all out for this thing). My youngest found her.

Her first thought, we're eating good tonight. She instantly wanted to fry her up.

We had pizza that night.

(Have you ever played chicken noises to them? They literally stop what they're doing and start running around looking for the sound. My kids will tell siri to play chicken noises and they go nuts. Pretty amusing.)
I've never done that. The closest was when dad used to hunt Coyote's. He played injured Rabbit and chicken noises, but that was for a totally different reason :) .
 
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Good post. Have no idea on the answers to your questions.

I'm just find it really odd watching the former party of free trade and Milton Friedman now touting ending the trade deficits, tariffs, etc. I know the Dems aren't going to defend Friedman's ideas. So are they now dead (politically) in this country?
Sorry, I can’t give you an informed answer. I’ve been wanting to read more about it, but haven’t had the time. I’ve been digesting poker content and playing. Getting prepped for WSOP.

A simplistic answer is I think this is a trade off for being the world reserve currency. There are certain jobs we are not going to be competitive in because of it. Unfortunately, a portion of our workforce who could make a good living doing their jobs, end up working jobs that pay less. Yes, we all get the benefit of cheaper goods, but a subset of Americans get crappier jobs.

I also always think a lot about time when it comes to economic issues and economies in general. If the entire world continues to develop, does this issue go away? How long does that take? Innovation changes preferences for some things quicker than others. I’ll shut up, because I’m not starting to ramble, but I find it fascinating.
 
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Sorry, I can’t give you an informed answer. I’ve been wanting to read more about it, but haven’t had the time. I’ve been digesting poker content and playing. Getting prepped for WSOP.

A simplistic answer is I think this is a trade off for being the world reserve currency. There are certain jobs we are not going to be competitive in because of it. Unfortunately, a portion of our workforce who could make a good living doing their jobs, end up working jobs that pay less. Yes, we all get the benefit of cheaper goods, but a subset of Americans get crappier jobs.

I also always think a lot about time when it comes to economic issues and economies in general. If the entire world continues to develop, does this issue go away? How long does that take? Innovation changes preferences for some things quicker than others. I’ll shut up, because I’m not starting to ramble, but I find it fascinating.
Screw the economics talk. Let's talk WSOP.

Are you playing in the tournament???!!!
 
Screw the economics talk. Let's talk WSOP.

Are you playing in the tournament???!!!
lol…I just play 500-1500s now. I’m playing 4 or 5 events and will be out there for little over a week. Unfortunately, having 3 little kids has shortened my Vegas trips.
 
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I'm breathlessly awaiting the coming debate on who was more responsible for the death of that chicken: Trump or Biden.

Brad, sometimes things just happen and animals die. It's a thing that happens to even the best. Lucille, that was her name, was called to the big pen in the sky because it was her time. She's in a better place with all the veggies that she wants to eat.

I know it's tough, but life goes on. Her memory will go on.
 
lol…I just play 500-1500s now. I’m playing 4 or 5 events and will be out there for little over a week. Unfortunately, having 3 little kids has shortened my Vegas trips.
500/1500 blinds is BIG TIME!!!!! What's your stack? $100k-150k?

You only playing HE or anything else? What content are you studying? Harrington? Sklansky (I'm dating myself here)?
 
Sorry, I can’t give you an informed answer. I’ve been wanting to read more about it, but haven’t had the time. I’ve been digesting poker content and playing. Getting prepped for WSOP.

A simplistic answer is I think this is a trade off for being the world reserve currency. There are certain jobs we are not going to be competitive in because of it. Unfortunately, a portion of our workforce who could make a good living doing their jobs, end up working jobs that pay less. Yes, we all get the benefit of cheaper goods, but a subset of Americans get crappier jobs.

I also always think a lot about time when it comes to economic issues and economies in general. If the entire world continues to develop, does this issue go away? How long does that take? Innovation changes preferences for some things quicker than others. I’ll shut up, because I’m not starting to ramble, but I find it fascinating.
So if people work lesser paying jobs, they get the benefit of not having as much money confiscated by the government. Their fare share is paying less.
 
500/1500 blinds is BIG TIME!!!!! What's your stack? $100k-150k?

You only playing HE or anything else? What content are you studying? Harrington? Sklansky (I'm dating myself here)?
I try to play PLO tournaments when I can. I started out playing PLO cash heads up many moons ago. There are tons of training sites now.
 
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Good post. Have no idea on the answers to your questions.

I'm just finding it really odd watching the former party of free trade and Milton Friedman now touting ending the trade deficits, tariffs, etc. I know the Dems aren't going to defend Friedman's ideas. So are they now dead (politically) in this country?
This is a good primer on the debt history and some general thoughts on opinions who say the deficit matters to those who say it doesn't.

 
LOVE PLO!
It’s much more fun and action. Heads up is great. Ranges become a lot wider and you have to start calling down really lightly in spots. The equities run so close, the swings are brutal. It definitely tests your resolve. I’ve only smashed one computer in my career. I was planning on getting a new one soon and sped the process up after running shitty 😁

Also, the tournaments are 10 times better. People actually talk and have a good time. I played the 1k PLO last year and half of my table was drinking beer by the end of the evening. NL tournaments are annoying as f#ck. Nobody talks and they take too damn long to make a decision.
 
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Nearly $35 trillion.


Net international trading position….nearly $20 trillion in the red


“The trade deficit is a statistic with little relation to a country’s prosperity….the vast majority of trade economists do not see the U.S. trade deficit as a ‘problem’ to be solved.”
I meant to say this yesterday, but someone has to realize the losses. The government isn’t going to let the bond market and banks fail so it will be through devaluation of the currency. I wish we had intelligent people with morals in government who would make difficult decisions and explain the reasons for them, but we don’t. Average Joe’s and Jane’s will foot the bill.
 
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It’s much more fun and action. Heads up is great. Ranges become a lot wider and you have to start calling down really lightly in spots. The equities run so close, the swings are brutal. It definitely tests your resolve. I’ve only smashed one computer in my career. I was planning on getting a new one soon and sped the process up after running shitty 😁

Also, the tournaments are 10 times better. People actually talk and have a good time. I played the 1k PLO last year and half of my table was drinking beer by the end of the evening. NL tournaments are annoying as f#ck. Nobody talks and they take too damn long to make a decision.
PLO/8 is the place where variance rules. So fun.
 
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This is a good primer on the debt history and some general thoughts on opinions who say the deficit matters to those who say it doesn't.

So both sides are to blame. And the only way out really(if you're in the camp that says we need to get out) is to cut entitlement and military spending AND raise taxes.

I'm ok with all that.

However, I think our debt is more a symptom than the disease itself. First I would end citizens united, ban lobbyists from capital, term limits for Congress, age limit for SC, ETC. their is too many hands in the cookie jar. That's the disease.
 
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His trade policy was a mess as well. Trump started a trade war with China, a war that the United States ultimately lost. It cost the United States nearly 300,000 jobs and an estimated $316 billion by the end of 2020. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University found US companies lost $1.7 trillion in the price of their stocks as a result of tariffs imposed on imports from China during the Trump administration. Our trade deficit with China ballooned as a result of Trump’s trade policy, far exceeding what it had been under the previous administration.
And I think that’s the one where we ended up having to pay farmers because of the tariffs.
 
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Here's a chart that I'm going to assume is approximately true:


For total federal spending, Social Security/Unemployment/Labor is the highest; Medicare & Health the second highest; Military the third highest. We need cuts there. My druthers:

1. Means test SS payments. Raise retirement age.

2. 10% of Medicare beneficiaries account for 60% of total expenditures. Address this somehow (I don't know how).


3. Cut military spending by 20% for 10 years. Shrink, but do not eliminate, our worldwide footprint.

4. Re revenues:

Increase the estate and gift tax. In 2022, it accounted for $33 billion in revenue. Let's triple that to get to $100 billion per year.

Start taxing all college sports (per Google AI: in 2022, college athletics generated around $13.6 billion in revenue, which is more than Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, and the National Hockey League combined).

Tax all university endowments not spent on lowering tuition ($800+billion stashed away here).

5. Pass a constitutional amendment that limits debts or deficits in some way. Our constitutional structure is broken in this way, whereby there is little to no accountability or incentives for politicians to limit spending. We need to fix that.

I doubt any of this happens and the U.S. will continue to slide into the abyss, with fried chicken prices continuing to skyrocket, while our national debates focus on the definition of a woman, the evils of "whiteness," the "heroism" of the J6ers, and whether our Presidential candidates like to be peed upon or smell hair.

I'm surprised @UncleMark liked this post. In reality, it's political suicide to run on modifications to retirement and Medicare because baby boomers don't actually care about leaving the world in a better place.
 
Good post. Have no idea on the answers to your questions.

I'm just finding it really odd watching the former party of free trade and Milton Friedman now touting ending the trade deficits, tariffs, etc. I know the Dems aren't going to defend Friedman's ideas. So are they now dead (politically) in this country?
Those ideas are not dead. I think people are reacting and searching and asking questions.

1. Short-term consumption
2. Long-term prosperity

Do those measures indicate the same thing?
We can point to the semiconductor industry and see that they do not. But even if they did we would still have to be concerned with deficits.


Should our trade deficits result in the dollar weakening?




It hasn’t adjusted…yet. This may point to Snarl’s comments about reserve currency. These other countries use wage suppression and currency manipulation.


We account for “78% of the total trade deficit” …I don’t see how that is sustainable. China….45% of the world’s trade surplus
 
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I'm surprised @UncleMark liked this post. In reality, it's political suicide to run on modifications to retirement and Medicare because baby boomers don't actually care about leaving the world in a better place.
Patience, Grasshopper. We'll die off soon enough and the world will then be a better place for you and yours.
 
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Good post. Have no idea on the answers to your questions.

I'm just finding it really odd watching the former party of free trade and Milton Friedman now touting ending the trade deficits, tariffs, etc. I know the Dems aren't going to defend Friedman's ideas. So are they now dead (politically) in this country?
At this point, I doubt very much that Keyensian or Monetarism can fully explain everything-- and I think that view is the clear majority view for economists. Friedman was a JMK guy--until he wasn't. Both were huge contributors to helping the US economy recover from awful situations. Does the MMT become a predominant view? Who knows. Covid and the consequences from that will be lifelong lessons for economists. I don't care who wins the fight, just do it right.
 

Option #4
One simple trick that lobbyists hate.

I wish we would move to the the Fair Tax, or at least a flat tax. I don't hold out much hope for either of them happening, but a guy can dream.
 
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One simple trick that lobbyists hate.

I wish we would move to the the Fair Tax, or at least a flat tax. I don't hold out much hope for either of them happening, but a guy can dream.
Flat taxes, term limits and stricter prohibitions and oversight of stock deals by congress will never happen. Doesn't matter if Congress was all left, all right or straight down the middle. Being in congress is like sleeping with the goose that laid the golden egg--you never let that goose go. Or like Gollum from JRR Tolkien
 

“As a matter of accounting, our trade deficit must be balanced by a combination of public and private deficits”

 
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