Cor blimey! It's bleedin' election day!

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Polls in the UK close in about five hours, and it sounds like there's pretty heavy turnout. Smart money seems to be on a small Conservative majority that should be just enough to get Johnson's Brexit plan done over the objections of his former Northern Irish allies, but there are a lot of possible scenarios ranging from a Conservative landslide to a leftist coalition that puts Corbyn in No. 10. Should be interesting to watch.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Looks like a big Boris win. Next up, will Scotland try to leave again?

 

[toastedbread]

Looks like a big Boris win. Next up, will Scotland try to leave again?

I hope this is a wakeup call for Warren and Sanders supporters.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Looks like a big Boris win. Next up, will Scotland try to leave again?

That and Corbyn's retirement seem the two most obvious next steps.

Also, don't be surprised if BoJo is emboldened enough to change his Brexit strategy yet again.

 

[toastedbread]

That and Corbyn's retirement seem the two most obvious next steps.

Also, don't be surprised if BoJo is emboldened enough to change his Brexit strategy yet again.

You think no deal?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I hope this is a wakeup call for Warren and Sanders supporters.

There might be something to that, but Labour has become very anti-Semitic and that is hurting them. And Corbyn's personal approval is something like -60. Warren and Sanders are not close to being that unlikable. Still, it is a consideration.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

You think no deal?

No. He'd be stupid not to push that through ASAP. But that's just the first step.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I hope this is a wakeup call for Warren and Sanders supporters.

I think you are making a logical error here if that's your big take.

 

[toastedbread]

I think you are making a logical error here if that's your big take.

I don't have a big take, but the brexit referendum preceded Trump's victory. Can't ignore global trends.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

That and Corbyn's retirement seem the two most obvious next steps.

Also, don't be surprised if BoJo is emboldened enough to change his Brexit strategy yet again.

Boris has always been an internationalist, but a political opportunist first. I cannot see the winds blowing toward no now.

 

[sglowrider]

That and Corbyn's retirement seem the two most obvious next steps.

Also, don't be surprised if BoJo is emboldened enough to change his Brexit strategy yet again.

That's the problem .... and luck for Boris -- poor alternative.

The problem with Jeremy is that he has his own convictions, albeit a touch anachronistic. But his party's a big tent. So he has had to straddle across that spectrum. And as a result, he came across muddled -- when Boris ran an essentially a one-issue platform.

Its an all familiar situation. Just like Brexit preceded Trump's ascendancy.

 

[Hoopsdoc1978]

Why do I care what the Brits do again?

 

[sglowrider]

Why do I care what the Brits do again?

You seriously are very parochial. A pinhole view of the world but it does explain a lot of your (world) views.

Quite sad.

 

[UncleMark]

There might be something to that, but Labour has become very anti-Semitic and that is hurting them. And Corbyn's personal approval is something like -60. Warren and Sanders are not close to being that unlikable. Still, it is a consideration.

So Corbyn is their HRC?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

So Corbyn is their HRC?

Yes, but Clinton on steroids.

There is some indication he is personally hated and also too far left for most Brits.

 

[sglowrider]

So Corbyn is their HRC?

Politically Sanders is closer to Jezza. Hillary is a centerist and would be the equivalent of a Blairite.

 

[sglowrider]

Yes, but Clinton on steroids.

There is some indication he is personally hated and also too far left for most Brits.

He has a strong grass root organisation which explains why it was difficult to remove him. This election's result was always inevitable. But now its the excuse to rid the party of the Corbynites.

 

[Hoopsdoc1978]

You seriously are very parochial. A pinhole view of the world but it does explain a lot of your (world) views.

Quite sad.

Thanks for your insight, but I care about what affects me and my loved ones.

So again, why should I care about what the Brits do?

 

[sglowrider]

Thanks for your insight, but I care about what affects me and my loved ones.

So again, why should I care about what the Brits do?

Errr... because its the same trend that is hitting the USA. Nationalism, isolationism, Putin's wet dream etc. Besides the fact that they are part of Nato and had sacrificed their sons in the fight against terrorism like in Afganistan -- oh I guess, 9-11 and the preceding wars.

But silly old me, its not your concern since you only care about what affects me and my loved ones.

Basically you just accidentally outted yourself to explain your infantile, under-developed perspectives. Checkers versus chess.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Boris has always been an internationalist, but a political opportunist first. I cannot see the winds blowing toward no now.

No, he'd be stupid to do anything to threaten the deal he already got. But after that comes two years of implementation, and he no longer has to appease the DUP or the skeptical Tories.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

BBC has revised their forecast to make it a smaller victory for Johnson, but not enough to make any practical difference. They are now calling a 64-seat majority.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Thanks for your insight, but I care about what affects me and my loved ones.

So again, why should I care about what the Brits do?

Because the United States is part of a global community? Because our economic well-being depends upon healthy trade, and the UK is about to come knocking on the door for a deal? Because the English-speaking world in which we are a part is a powerful economic and social force the likes of which the world has rarely seen?

Or, if that's too complicated for you, how about this: because it's news.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

@Marvin the Martian And further to how we started this conversation, Sturgeon has announced that she will be asking Johnson for the authority to hold a new referendum, and Corbyn just basically pre-resigned in his victory speech.

Edit: And Jo Swinson just lost her seat to the SNP by 149 votes.

Edit 2: Interesting - Belfast North, a constituency that has only ever been held by unionists, was picked up by Sinn Fein.

 

[sglowrider]

@Marvin the Martian And further to how we started this conversation, Sturgeon has announced that she will be asking Johnson for the authority to hold a new referendum, and Corbyn just basically pre-resigned in his victory speech.

Edit: And Jo Swinson just lost her seat to the SNP by 149 votes.

Edit 2: Interesting - Belfast North, a constituency that has only ever been held by unionists, was picked up by Sinn Fein.

My vote's for Keir Starmer to replace Jezza.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

My vote's for Keir Starmer to replace Jezza.

I suppose he makes as much sense as anyone. The party leadership will need to be purged of Corbynites, to be sure.

 

[i'vegotwinners]

Because the United States is part of a global community? Because our economic well-being depends upon healthy trade, and the UK is about to come knocking on the door for a deal? Because the English-speaking world in which we are a part is a powerful economic and social force the likes of which the world has rarely seen?

Or, if that's too complicated for you, how about this: because it's news.

i claim no expertise on this, but i question if Joe US citizen sees any great economic or social impact one way or another.

i'm guessing the takeaway should be that Brits wanted out of the union.

we have no equivalent situation to Great Britian's Brexit thing.

as for the US, it's Wall St, (that controls both parties on everything economic), that wants a global economy, not Joe Voter of either party.

as for immigration, if 2020 were a referendum on immigration, the conservatives win.

why the libs need to make 2020 about something equally or more impactful than immigration, which is,

fixing our runaway heath care costs and access to healthcare, for which the only solution is MFA.

minimum wage,

corporate takeover of govt,

education costs,

housing costs,

and to do this they need to make the debate about more than just what is working for 51% at this current moment in time, but make it about a bigger picture, what is best for more than just you and more than just this moment in time, but what is best for the nation as a whole, your neighbor, your children when they're grown, your yet unborn grandchildren, and for even you 1, 5, or ten, yrs from now, since even though you might be taken care of today with your employer based plan, that plan could end tomorrow, that job could end tomorrow no matter how confident you are it wont, and even if that plan or job doesn't end tomorrow, it's going to get worse for you with every passing year.

5 yrs out, how many happy today with their healthcare situation will no longer be, and 10 yrs out very few will be happy with what they have.

current young children have very very little chance of affordable employer based healthcare when they are grown, and the odds go to almost zero for their yet unborn grandchildren.

libs also need to make MFA not just about the future, but about all those currently who don't have it.

they need to sell the big picture.

not just you. not just today.

 

[sglowrider]

i claim no expertise on this, but i question if Joe US citizen sees any great economic or social impact one way or another.

i'm guessing the takeaway should be that Brits wanted out of the union.

we have no equivalent situation to Great Britian's Brexit thing.

as for the US, it's Wall St, (that controls both parties on everything economic), that wants a global economy, not Joe Voter of either party.

as for immigration, if 2020 were a referendum on immigration, the conservatives win.

why the libs need to make 2020 about something equally or more impactful than immigration, which is,

fixing our runaway heath care costs and access to healthcare, for which the only solution is MFA.

minimum wage,

corporate takeover of govt,

education costs,

housing costs,

and to do this they need to make the debate about more than just what is working for 51% at this current moment in time, but make it about a bigger picture, what is best for more than just you and more than just this moment in time, but what is best for the nation as a whole, your neighbor, your children when they're grown, your yet unborn grandchildren, and for even you 1, 5, or ten, yrs from now, since even though you might be taken care of today with your employer based plan, that plan could end tomorrow, that job could end tomorrow no matter how confident you are it wont, and even if that plan or job doesn't end tomorrow, it's going to get worse for you with every passing year.

5 yrs out, how many happy today with their healthcare situation will no longer be, and 10 yrs out very few will be happy with what they have.

current young children have very very little chance of affordable employer based healthcare when they are grown, and the odds go to almost zero for their yet unborn grandchildren.

libs also need to make MFA not just about the future, but about all those currently who don't have it.

they need to sell the big picture.

not just you. not just today.

You need to clean your dogmatic IGW filters every now and then. You seemed focused on the symptoms rather than the causes.

The basis for Trumpism and Brexit is parallel.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

@Marvin the Martian And further to how we started this conversation, Sturgeon has announced that she will be asking Johnson for the authority to hold a new referendum, and Corbyn just basically pre-resigned in his victory speech.

Edit: And Jo Swinson just lost her seat to the SNP by 149 votes.

Edit 2: Interesting - Belfast North, a constituency that has only ever been held by unionists, was picked up by Sinn Fein.

I imagine Johnson will continue the no. Strange how that works, people in the Midlands do not want ruled by Brussels, but demand London rule Scotland.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I heard a talking head this morning say that Britain proves whenever a right-wing populist faces off against a left-wing populist, the right always wins. I haven't taken the time to fully consider that in historical context. We know it was true in places like Germany, Italy, and Argentina. But just because I'm not thinking of the counters doesn't mean they don't exist. But if that is a truism, it does make Bernie and probably Warren dangerous choices.

I think I would turn the Overton Window (below) on its side with conservative running right and liberal running left. My speculation is that the window is more condensed on the left than the right. People tend to resist change, so the argument of status quo or of returning to "the good old days" probably has a wider part of the window than the brave new world. Britain's election was a major repudiation of a badly flawed leader, but also a strike against the brave new world. Brexit is a retrenchment to the good old days. Corbyn was a bad leader to run against Brexit in that he opposes the EU as just another capitalist tool. The problem for Britain is she will never return to empire and I'm not sure entrenchment works any more. Brexit may be Britain's Maginot Line.

 

[Hoopsdoc1978]

Errr... because its the same trend that is hitting the USA. Nationalism, isolationism, Putin's wet dream etc. Besides the fact that they are part of Nato and had sacrificed their sons in the fight against terrorism like in Afganistan -- oh I guess, 9-11 and the preceding wars.

But silly old me, its not your concern since you only care about what affects me and my loved ones.

Basically you just accidentally outted yourself to explain your infantile, under-developed perspectives. Checkers versus chess.

Lots of countries are US allies. What’s that got to do with anything?

The Brits don’t want or need our concern. They’re doing just fine on their own, as evidenced by, well, everything.

You’re hand wringing is simply because YOU don’t like the results. It reminds me of the economic doom and gloom forecasted after Trump was elected.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Lots of countries are US allies. What’s that got to do with anything?

The Brits don’t want or need our concern. They’re doing just fine on their own, as evidenced by, well, everything.

You’re hand wringing is simply because YOU don’t like the results. It reminds me of the economic doom and gloom forecasted after Trump was elected.

Maybe people just like discussing world events? Some people like to discuss golf, I don't get the game at all, but it is their right. Some like to discuss beer, baseball, gardening, cars, cooking, movies, TV, etc. We don't all have to like the same thing, it is the wonder of a free society. If you don't like discussing British politics you can exercise the right to ignore the thread.

 

[Hoopsdoc1978]

Maybe people just like discussing world events? Some people like to discuss golf, I don't get the game at all, but it is their right. Some like to discuss beer, baseball, gardening, cars, cooking, movies, TV, etc. We don't all have to like the same thing, it is the wonder of a free society. If you don't like discussing British politics you can exercise the right to ignore the thread.

I don’t mind the discussion. I just asked why I should care about what the British do.

 

[sglowrider]

I don’t mind the discussion. I just asked why I should care about what the British do.

Lots of countries are US allies. What’s that got to do with anything?

The Brits don’t want or need our concern. They’re doing just fine on their own, as evidenced by, well, everything.

You’re hand wringing is simply because YOU don’t like the results. It reminds me of the economic doom and gloom forecasted after Trump was elected.

See if the causes of Brexit sounds familiar:

Causes of the vote in favour of Brexit

 

[sglowrider]

Maybe people just like discussing world events? Some people like to discuss golf, I don't get the game at all, but it is their right. Some like to discuss beer, baseball, gardening, cars, cooking, movies, TV, etc. We don't all have to like the same thing, it is the wonder of a free society. If you don't like discussing British politics you can exercise the right to ignore the thread.

i claim no expertise on this, but i question if Joe US citizen sees any great economic or social impact one way or another.

i'm guessing the takeaway should be that Brits wanted out of the union.

we have no equivalent situation to Great Britian's Brexit thing.

as for the US, it's Wall St, (that controls both parties on everything economic), that wants a global economy, not Joe Voter of either party.

as for immigration, if 2020 were a referendum on immigration, the conservatives win.

why the libs need to make 2020 about something equally or more impactful than immigration, which is,

fixing our runaway heath care costs and access to healthcare, for which the only solution is MFA.

minimum wage,

corporate takeover of govt,

education costs,

housing costs,

and to do this they need to make the debate about more than just what is working for 51% at this current moment in time, but make it about a bigger picture, what is best for more than just you and more than just this moment in time, but what is best for the nation as a whole, your neighbor, your children when they're grown, your yet unborn grandchildren, and for even you 1, 5, or ten, yrs from now, since even though you might be taken care of today with your employer based plan, that plan could end tomorrow, that job could end tomorrow no matter how confident you are it wont, and even if that plan or job doesn't end tomorrow, it's going to get worse for you with every passing year.

5 yrs out, how many happy today with their healthcare situation will no longer be, and 10 yrs out very few will be happy with what they have.

current young children have very very little chance of affordable employer based healthcare when they are grown, and the odds go to almost zero for their yet unborn grandchildren.

libs also need to make MFA not just about the future, but about all those currently who don't have it.

they need to sell the big picture.

not just you. not just today.

Lots of countries are US allies. What’s that got to do with anything?

The Brits don’t want or need our concern. They’re doing just fine on their own, as evidenced by, well, everything.

You’re hand wringing is simply because YOU don’t like the results. It reminds me of the economic doom and gloom forecasted after Trump was elected.

See if the causes of Brexit sounds familiar:

Causes of the vote in favour of Brexit

 

[i'vegotwinners]

See if the causes of Brexit sounds familiar:

Causes of the vote in favour of Brexit

you keep implying that i somehow don't grasp the motivations of the "leave" voters, when in fact the main point of my post was that for Dems to win in 20, they'll need to make the choice about more than just immigration.

they can only do so imo by nominating a progressive, who will make the debate more about healthcare access and cost, cost of higher education, housing costs, minimum wage/increasing wealth divide, big money's total takeover of our govt on everything economic.

if the Dems go with another Dino like Biden or Bloomberg, then the choice becomes about immigration, guns, abortion, minority rights, and other social issues, which would be a 2020 total disaster for Dems.

 

[Mas-sa-suta]

I hope this is a wakeup call for Warren and Sanders supporters.

Can't 'wake up' from dead.

 

[sglowrider]

I suppose he makes as much sense as anyone. The party leadership will need to be purged of Corbynites, to be sure.

Welcome to the new data driven world, Boris:


You just know that, at that very moment, Boris wished he was back in the 'ICU' again.

 

[Hoosier_Hack]

I hope this is a wakeup call for Warren and Sanders supporters.

What would they be waking up too? Serious question..... what is it that they aren’t seeing that you are?

 

[Spartans9312]

I heard a talking head this morning say that Britain proves whenever a right-wing populist faces off against a left-wing populist, the right always wins. I haven't taken the time to fully consider that in historical context. We know it was true in places like Germany, Italy, and Argentina. But just because I'm not thinking of the counters doesn't mean they don't exist. But if that is a truism, it does make Bernie and probably Warren dangerous choices.

I think I would turn the Overton Window (below) on its side with conservative running right and liberal running left. My speculation is that the window is more condensed on the left than the right. People tend to resist change, so the argument of status quo or of returning to "the good old days" probably has a wider part of the window than the brave new world. Britain's election was a major repudiation of a badly flawed leader, but also a strike against the brave new world. Brexit is a retrenchment to the good old days. Corbyn was a bad leader to run against Brexit in that he opposes the EU as just another capitalist tool. The problem for Britain is she will never return to empire and I'm not sure entrenchment works any more. Brexit may be Britain's Maginot Line.

Reuters: "No-trade deal Brexit is still possible, UK minister says"
It's the likeliest scenario now. The EU thinks they have the upper hand now that Boris doesn't have Trump to back him.
On another note: Europe is going to be on their knees asking for money from the Fed come end of December

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Reuters: "No-trade deal Brexit is still possible, UK minister says"
It's the likeliest scenario now. The EU thinks they have the upper hand now that Boris doesn't have Trump to back him.
On another note: Europe is going to be on their knees asking for money from the Fed come end of December

I heard a Scottish leader say that when they voted for independence, the UK told Scotland the UK would block Scotland from joining the EU. Being a member of the EU is important to Scotland and that made a difference.

If a deal is not worked out, I can see Scotland pushing independence again. Losing Scotland and a no deal exit would be a high price to pay to appeal to some nationalists.