B10 favorites versus returning production ?

[.Gerdis]

The B10 may have laid an egg in the NCAAs last year, but there’s no arguing that it had star power. The Hoosiers return 4 starters, their three top players (X/race/TJD), and by far the most production of any conference team. The best teams from last year all lost their best player (and they were all big Time stars).

there’s a big drop off from IU , and then we are staring at teams like PSU as far as returning production. In other words, if you look at the 2 links, you will see that aside from IU, the highest rated B10 teams have the lowest returning production, and visa versa.

The teams that dominated the league last year (especially PU, IL and MI) lost a ton. And yet, I see them picked as early favorites and top 25 (way early teams).

I expect the conference to be down, significantly. The Hoosiers have some questions, but far less than other teams.

Big Ten basketball: Ranking teams in terms of returning production ahead of 2022-23 season

Arizona, Arkansas top Andy Katz's way-too-early Power 36 men's basketball rankings

March Madness may be over, but the DI men's basketball rankings continue. Andy Katz breaks down what might have with the top teams as transfer portal and draft deadline looms.

www.ncaa.com

 

[Coach Geez]

The B10 may have laid an egg in the NCAAs last year, but there’s no arguing that it had star power. The Hoosiers return 4 starters, their three top players (X/race/TJD), and by far the most production of any conference team. The best teams from last year all lost their best player (and they were all big Tim stars).

there’s a big drop off from IU , and then we are staring at teams like PSU as far as returning production. In other words, if you look at the 2 links, you will see that aside from IU, the highest rated B10 teams have the lowest returning production, and visa versa.

The teams that dominated the league last year (especially PU, IL and MI) lost a ton. And yet, I see them picked as early favorites and top 25 (way early teams).

I expect the conference to be down, significantly. The Hoosiers have some questions, but far less than other teams.

Big Ten basketball: Ranking teams in terms of returning production ahead of 2022-23 season

Arizona, Arkansas top Andy Katz's way-too-early Power 36 men's basketball rankings

March Madness may be over, but the DI men's basketball rankings continue. Andy Katz breaks down what might have with the top teams as transfer portal and draft deadline looms.

www.ncaa.com

Big blow for Michigan losing both Diabate and Houstan to the draft. Don't think either are guaranteed first round picks and their departures likely drop Michigan a peg or two despite bringing in some solid transfers and a good recruiting class. Illinois loses a ton but does replace some of that production with proven talent. Fair to say IU, Mich, and Illinois should be preseason 1-2-3 in some order.

Fair to call IU the preseason favorites considering the combination of talent and experience they return, but they need a few guys, namely Bates, JG, and JHS, to step up in the biggest way if they want to raise their NCAA tournament ceiling. Tournament is all about guard play and IU in my opinion has one top level guard who was inconsistent most of last year until really turning it on at the end of the year. IU does have one of the tougher conference schedules for the teams expected to compete for a B10 title so that always factors into the equation.

 

[.Gerdis]

Big blow for Michigan losing both Diabate and Houstan to the draft. Don't think either are guaranteed first round picks and their departures likely drop Michigan a peg or two despite bringing in some solid transfers and a good recruiting class. Illinois loses a ton but does replace some of that production with proven talent. Fair to say IU, Mich, and Illinois should be preseason 1-2-3 in some order.

Fair to call IU the preseason favorites considering the combination of talent and experience they return, but they need a few guys, namely Bates, JG, and JHS, to step up in the biggest way if they want to raise their NCAA tournament ceiling. Tournament is all about guard play and IU in my opinion has one top level guard who was inconsistent most of last year until really turning it on at the end of the year. IU does have one of the tougher conference schedules for the teams expected to compete for a B10 title so that always factors into the equation.

Agree on all counts, I would add:

with IUs experience (especially conference play experience) and age, they should fare better on the road than a team with more questions. Even the Illini, with their transfers, will find the conference style and officiating to be different. That helps offset the schedule difficulty. AH will be as tough to play as anywhere. Our experience and defensive play will help us on the road.

as for the NCAAs, yep it’s all about guard play.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Big blow for Michigan losing both Diabate and Houstan to the draft. Don't think either are guaranteed first round picks and their departures likely drop Michigan a peg or two despite bringing in some solid transfers and a good recruiting class. Illinois loses a ton but does replace some of that production with proven talent. Fair to say IU, Mich, and Illinois should be preseason 1-2-3 in some order.

Fair to call IU the preseason favorites considering the combination of talent and experience they return, but they need a few guys, namely Bates, JG, and JHS, to step up in the biggest way if they want to raise their NCAA tournament ceiling. Tournament is all about guard play and IU in my opinion has one top level guard who was inconsistent most of last year until really turning it on at the end of the year. IU does have one of the tougher conference schedules for the teams expected to compete for a B10 title so that always factors into the equation.

I think this is fair. You’d have to be (A) biased or (B) very swayed by only one particular factor (like returning production or incoming talent or whatever) to declare a runaway favorite.

I actually think Michigan is pretty overrated (at least as it relates to the Big Ten standings) because people are enamored with the fact they’re the only team that happened to not lay an egg in 2021 and won a surprise game in the Second Round last year … I think MSU and OSU will be just as good, and only fools will count Wisconsin out.

Bottom line, I think IU is getting most of the “favorite” hype because of the very understandable/traditional metrics, but the transfer portal has really shaken up how we usually look at this stuff. I think there will be a nice race at the top, and I expect IU to be one of those teams.

 

[bailey777]

I think this is fair. You’d have to be (A) biased or (B) very swayed by only one particular factor (like returning production or incoming talent or whatever) to declare a runaway favorite.

I actually think Michigan is pretty overrated (at least as it relates to the Big Ten standings) because people are enamored with the fact they’re the only team that happened to not lay an egg in 2021 and won a surprise game in the Second Round last year … I think MSU and OSU will be just as good, and only fools will count Wisconsin out.

Bottom line, I think IU is getting most of the “favorite” hype because of the very understandable/traditional metrics, but the transfer portal has really shaken up how we usually look at this stuff. I think there will be a nice race at the top, and I expect IU to be one of those teams.

We should be near the top but we could still easily have 7 or more loses given our schedule. It is brutal. I mean overall loses we could lose three or four before the big ten depending on how it shakes out.

 

[B1G_Fan]

I think this is fair. You’d have to be (A) biased or (B) very swayed by only one particular factor (like returning production or incoming talent or whatever) to declare a runaway favorite.

I actually think Michigan is pretty overrated (at least as it relates to the Big Ten standings) because people are enamored with the fact they’re the only team that happened to not lay an egg in 2021 and won a surprise game in the Second Round last year … I think MSU and OSU will be just as good, and only fools will count Wisconsin out.

Bottom line, I think IU is getting most of the “favorite” hype because of the very understandable/traditional metrics, but the transfer portal has really shaken up how we usually look at this stuff. I think there will be a nice race at the top, and I expect IU to be one of those teams.

I had IU winning it until the schedules came out. Illinois got a cake walk and IU drew the hardest schedule out there by far of the top teams.

 

[Coach Geez]

I think this is fair. You’d have to be (A) biased or (B) very swayed by only one particular factor (like returning production or incoming talent or whatever) to declare a runaway favorite.

I actually think Michigan is pretty overrated (at least as it relates to the Big Ten standings) because people are enamored with the fact they’re the only team that happened to not lay an egg in 2021 and won a surprise game in the Second Round last year … I think MSU and OSU will be just as good, and only fools will count Wisconsin out.

Bottom line, I think IU is getting most of the “favorite” hype because of the very understandable/traditional metrics, but the transfer portal has really shaken up how we usually look at this stuff. I think there will be a nice race at the top, and I expect IU to be one of those teams.

Realize you're an Illini fan, and while adding Shannon and Mayer certainly soften the blow, Illinois needs a ton of guys to step up who are either freshman or played lesser roles last year. Goode and Melendez show promise and I think will be good players but don't know how impactful they can be right away. While it's almost impossible to replace a player like Kofi, it may be a blessing in disguise as I thought Illinois was way too reliant on playing exclusively through him at times last year. Illinois having one of the weaker conference schedules certainly plays into their favor finishing near the top.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

I had IU winning it until the schedules came out. Illinois got a cake walk and IU drew the hardest schedule out there by far of the top teams.

Yeah, I have no problem saying this after we have usually gotten a hard schedule lately and felt pretty slighted out of a conference title in 2020-21 … but our schedule this year is hilarious, lol.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Realize you're an Illini fan, and while adding Shannon and Mayer certainly soften the blow, Illinois needs a ton of guys to step up who are either freshman or played lesser roles last year. Goode and Melendez show promise and I think will be good players but don't know how impactful they can be right away. While it's almost impossible to replace a player like Kofi, it may be a blessing in disguise as I thought Illinois was way too reliant on playing exclusively through him at times last year. Illinois having one of the weaker conference schedules certainly plays into their favor finishing near the top.

Yeah, the one thing I’ve been consistent about is that a lot of teams will have unknowns - especially us. These last three seasons, we have had two amazing superstars that 99% of teams would take in a heartbeat - Ayo and Kofi. They’ve won us a lot of games, and the vast majority of the time there is nothing but positives to them being on the floor. However, when we are just having an off game or another team has us scouted perfectly, we looked ESPECIALLY lost and slow to adjust … and it sent us packing early in the NCAAs twice.

I could easily envision a scenario where we take a step back and lose some games Kofi could have won for us, but the optimist in me thinks we’ll be able to adjust our style of play a bit better with this group. Again, tons of unknowns … if the transfers gel well and the freshmen look good, we can be very good. However, I expect some early hiccups - something I’ll happily take if it means playing our best basketball in March, which hasn’t been the case lately! 😂

 

[B1G_Fan]

Yeah, I have no problem saying this after we have usually gotten a hard schedule lately and felt pretty slighted out of a conference title in 2020-21 … but our schedule this year is hilarious, lol.

I still think it’s a toss up between the two, because IU is the better team, but Illinois’ schedule will give them a shot.

 

[Jim Coyle]

Be wary of the Illini. They visited the portal.

 

[kkott]

Be weary of the Illini. They visited the portal.

I've been weary of the Illini since all their fans starting visiting the site and thumping their chest. Think we should be wary of them too?

 

[Jim Coyle]

I've been weary of the Illini since all their fans starting visiting the site and thumping their chest. Think we should be wary of them too?

Why would you be? No fan will score a point next season. My point was that illinois is going to be a pretty solid team with the pieces they added.

 

[T.M.P.]

My point was that illinois is going to be a pretty solid team with the pieces they added.

Maybe, if the pieces fit .. but they still have questionable areas. Post defense. Inexperienced but talented guards.

Not sold on Underwood being a guy that can throw a team of transfers together without a core returning with little to no experience playing together.. he's not Chris Beard.

We'll see ...

Interesting team though, having two 6'9+ guys that can shoot give them a lot of options.

 

[Cavanagh]

Maybe, if the pieces fit .. but they still have questionable areas. Post defense. Inexperienced but talented guards.

Not sold on Underwood being a guy that can throw a team of transfers together without a core returning, with little to no experience playing together.. he's not Chris Beard.

We'll see ...

Interesting team though, having two 6'9+ guys that can shoot give them a lot of options.

Should be a solid team, wouldn’t expect anything crazy good though. 3-5th in the league I bet.

 

[T.M.P.]

Should be a solid team, wouldn’t expect anything crazy good though. 3-5th in the league I bet.

They have talented, potentially good players but not yet proven

Shannon gets draft hype, but his production so far hasn't matched the potential. Can he be a go to guy, will he finally breakout? Dainja? He was raw, he's getting good reviews but will that translate into a competent post player in the hardest conference to play that position? Could they use Hawkins as a too skinny post player?

Mayer was fantastic two years ago, last year he fell off a bit. With more opportunity came less production. He's probably the most solid to predict as being "good" or proven.

They'll be led by freshman guards, that's not always easy in this conference.

A lot of question marks, but they could be really good if all those pieces fit together.. it's a deep team with a lot of shooters. If not, meh.

 

[Cavanagh]

They'll be led by freshman guards, that's not always easy in this conference.

It's nearly impossible in this conference. I think that is why they will have a ceiling of about 3rd. I don't see JHS's backup leading them to a title.

 

[frikkenfrakken]

Why would you be? No fan will score a point next season. My point was that illinois is going to be a pretty solid team with the pieces they added.

His point was that you used the wrong word, and that perhaps a journalist should know the difference between weary and wary.

 

[.Gerdis]

They have talented, potentially good players but not yet proven

Shannon gets draft hype, but his production so far hasn't matched the potential. Can he be a go to guy, will he finally breakout? Dainja? He was raw, he's getting good reviews but will that translate into a competent post player in the hardest conference to play that position? Could they use Hawkins as a too skinny post player?

Mayer was fantastic two years ago, last year he fell off a bit. With more opportunity came less production. He's probably the most solid to predict as being "good" or proven.

They'll be led by freshman guards, that's not always easy in this conference.

A lot of question marks, but they could be really good if all those pieces fit together.. it's a deep team with a lot of shooters. If not, meh.

Which I suppose was exactly the point of the OP.

lots of question for the other BT contenders. Lots of potential, but so many unproven questions.

with us, there’s a baseline, or floor, because of all the production that we return. Yes, we added tons of talent as well. But, even if that talent doesn’t reach potential in the first year, it’s reasonable to think we will be better than last year with just modest improvement in all that returning production. In a down conference with so many questions on other teams, I don’t see how we don’t compete for the B10 title with that floor.

 

[kkott]

His point was that you used the wrong word, and that perhaps a journalist should know the difference between weary and wary.

Really just busting his chops over using the wrong word. I'd be more critical if it was a written piece, but I'm not a grammar cop over posts or texts. I screw both up too often for that!

 

[Victorbmyboy]

Really just busting his chops over using the wrong word. I'd be more critical if it was a written piece, but I'm not a grammar cop over posts or texts. I screw both up too often for that!

I look at grammar police like people who respond with,”your mom”. 🤣

 

[Jim Coyle]

His point was that you used the wrong word, and that perhaps a journalist should know the difference between weary and wary.

Thanks for the catch. I do know the difference, but sometimes I simply do not catch an erroneous auto-correct.

 

[kkott]

I look at grammar police like people who respond with,”your mom”. 🤣

Your Mother!

 

[Indyhorn]

I think Brad Underwood is a very good coach- Illinois wandered in the wilderness with Groce and now they are set to be perennially good.

 

[Jim Coyle]

I think Brad Underwood is a very good coach- Illinois wandered in the wilderness with Groce and now they are set to be perennially good.

I hadn't given him the credit he probably deserves. He has certainly recruited well, then reloaded, and his teams play well. I think Illinois, Indiana and Michigan will certainly contend for the B1G. Purdue MSU, OSU & Wisky are question marks.

 

[Cavanagh]

I hadn't given him the credit he probably deserves. He has certainly recruited well, then reloaded, and his teams play well. I think Illinois, Indiana and Michigan will certainly contend for the B1G. Purdue MSU, OSU & Wisky are question marks.

I could see MSU being really good. I think this year is MSU final go in the Izzo tenure. I bet Izzo retires after this year. NIL is too much for him.

 

[T.M.P.]

I think Brad Underwood is a very good coach- Illinois wandered in the wilderness with Groce and now they are set to be perennially good.

Yeah those 1st round tourney wins were amazing, if only he could get past the second round.

Let's see what he does without Kofi ...

 

[birdforbogey]

Yeah those 1st round tourney wins were amazing, if only he could get past the second round.

Let's see what he does without Kofi ...

First things first, you have to get into the tourney.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Yeah those 1st round tourney wins were amazing, if only he could get past the second round.

Let's see what he does without Kofi ...

Let’s see what you do … at all ?

 

[B1G_Fan]

Let’s see what you do … at all ?

Aww the little Illinois fanboy seems upset. Are you upset because Illinois hasn’t been to the Sweet 16 since 2005?