As we move forward

[Marvin the Martian]

I have heard more people suggest the idea of letting people return to work if/when they produce documentation they have had the disease.

It does start the economy moving, let us call this low gear. What do we do with everyone else? For example, how long might your employer wait on you before permanently filling your job? Might that create an incentive to say, "give me 21 days boss, I will bring you that document". Which seems like a strange incentive.

On the other hand, there probably are not many choices until we get a vaccine.

I know a lot of people who retired early during 2008's recession because by the time 2010-11 came around, finding work as a 61 year old was very difficult. As a 60 year old in IT, I sort of envision this happening.

There is the old baseball idea that you cannot lose your starting position due to injury. But we know that happens all the time.

 

[UncleMark]

I have heard more people suggest the idea of letting people return to work if/when they produce documentation they have had the disease.
[...]
There is the old baseball idea that you cannot lose your starting position due to injury. But we know that happens all the time.

There's gotta be work to come back to. That's the problem with my job. We make products that are used in large gatherings and corporate group settings. Our business was going south early, long before the stay at home orders and all that. We weren't mandated to shut down, we shut down because we had no business.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

There's gotta be work to come back to. That's the problem with my job. We make products that are used in large gatherings and corporate group settings. Our business was going south early, long before the stay at home orders and all that. We weren't mandated to shut down, we shut down because we had no business.

True, though I suspect for many items there will be pent up demand. Once we can mingle, I suspect a lot of rescheduled weddings, graduation parties, reunions, etc, will happen. But how much money people have will be the question. We may need another tax cut for billionaires to get the economy moving.

 

[Daydreamer]

True, though I suspect for many items there will be pent up demand. Once we can mingle, I suspect a lot of rescheduled weddings, graduation parties, reunions, etc, will happen. But how much money people have will be the question. We may need another tax cut for billionaires to get the economy moving.

Bringing people back to work one at a time does nothing for those large gatherings your talking about. That has to be all or nothing both from the consumer and the labor sides. Mark is right- there have to be jobs to come back to. When no one is out spending money, it’s pointless to try to piece things together. Either everyone rides this out or everyone says “screw it” and goes all in. The economy, however, won’t function with all the sickness and death that will occur if we go all in.

 

[82hoosier]

I’m sure hospital staffs everywhere will be doing cartwheels and handsprings when people are allowed to go back outside and mingle because they are bored.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Bringing people back to work one at a time does nothing for those large gatherings your talking about. That has to be all or nothing both from the consumer and the labor sides. Mark is right- there have to be jobs to come back to. When no one is out spending money, it’s pointless to try to piece things together. Either everyone rides this out or everyone says “screw it” and goes all in. The economy, however, won’t function with all the sickness and death that will occur if we go all in.

So I take it to mean you are against partial mobilization? I have not decided, I see problems both ways. We are 18 months from a vaccine, can we realistically wait that long?

 

[mcmurtry66]

So I take it to mean you are against partial mobilization? I have not decided, I see problems both ways. We are 18 months from a vaccine, can we realistically wait that long?

I bet most of us are back to work by May 15, at the latest - irresponsible or not.

 

[iuwclurker]

I have heard more people suggest the idea of letting people return to work if/when they produce documentation they have had the disease.

It does start the economy moving, let us call this low gear. What do we do with everyone else? For example, how long might your employer wait on you before permanently filling your job? Might that create an incentive to say, "give me 21 days boss, I will bring you that document". Which seems like a strange incentive.

On the other hand, there probably are not many choices until we get a vaccine.

I know a lot of people who retired early during 2008's recession because by the time 2010-11 came around, finding work as a 61 year old was very difficult. As a 60 year old in IT, I sort of envision this happening.

There is the old baseball idea that you cannot lose your starting position due to injury. But we know that happens all the time.

Seems to me the more important factor is people being tested. Not whether they’ve had it. We need fast inexpensive testing. That will enable large mobilization. Theoretically the testing could also include antigen presence so that we would know if people had it or not, or had had it or not. That ought to scale it up. Furthermore a fair segment of the economy never stopped working. Otherwise we’d all drop dead. From starvation.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Seems to me the more important factor is people being tested. Not whether they’ve had it. We need fast inexpensive testing. That will enable large mobilization. Theoretically the testing could also include antigen presence so that we would know if people had it or not, or had had it or not. That ought to scale it up. Furthermore a fair segment of the economy never stopped working. Otherwise we’d all drop dead. From starvation.

Testing is great, but being negative today does not mean you are negative on Friday.

 

[UncleMark]

So I take it to mean you are against partial mobilization? I have not decided, I see problems both ways. We are 18 months from a vaccine, can we realistically wait that long?

How quickly this peaks and how rapidly it declines will be the key. Maybe there will be an effective treatment developed in the near term, before any vaccine. In any case, I think that things will have to be loosened starting this summer, let's say beginning in June. Otherwise we're looking at another Great Depression.

 

[iuwclurker]

Testing is great, but being negative today does not mean you are negative on Friday.

True. I think the key to everything going forward is people realizing that we need to keep social distancing. Let’s say Swedish style, for example. Work but maintain your distance if you can or if you can’t wear masks and so forth. So yeah today you didn’t have it well by now you’ve learned how to not get it from other people presumably. Nothings perfect people are still going to get it but how do we move forward in the most sensible way?

 

[mashnut]

One of the big problems with a partial reopening is that people who are currently WFH or furloughed/laid off and doing childcare can't go back to work if schools aren't open. That means parents will have hard choices to make even if they do get that paper.

 

[Daydreamer]

So I take it to mean you are against partial mobilization? I have not decided, I see problems both ways. We are 18 months from a vaccine, can we realistically wait that long?

I’m not against it as much as I don’t see it as feasible. The economy will be damaged no matter what we do but we have the wealth to survive if our leaders use their heads. Trying to pretend like we can go back to normal is a fools errand. It seems like simple math to me. 200,000 dead versus 1,000,000 dead. Which is better for the economy? Last I checked, dead people can’t work or buy stuff.

 

[Daydreamer]

One of the big problems with a partial reopening is that people who are currently WFH or furloughed/laid off and doing childcare can't go back to work if schools aren't open. That means parents will have hard choices to make even if they do get that paper.

Yes, this is one of the calculations. We can’t go halfway. Everything and everyone has to immediately go back to normal and that just isn’t possible.

 

[sglowrider]

So I take it to mean you are against partial mobilization? I have not decided, I see problems both ways. We are 18 months from a vaccine, can we realistically wait that long?

This is precisely the problem.

I may not have it this week but who is to say I won't pick it up post-lockdown next month when you have the elephant in the room -- the 83million trojan horses, who can't afford to seek testing or treatment?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

This is precisely the problem.

I may not have it this week but who is to say I won't pick it up post-lockdown next month when you have the elephant in the room -- the 83million trojan horses, who can't afford to seek testing or treatment?

I did see that they estimate we have a 90% compliance rate, which is far better than the 50% estimate. That is great, but I suspect that number will start to drop by May.

 

[sglowrider]

I did see that they estimate we have a 90% compliance rate, which is far better than the 50% estimate. That is great, but I suspect that number will start to drop by May.

That's why I have always said that lockdowns are not sustainable both socially/psychologically,financially and economically. It's your last weapon to use. Max I suspect is a month to six weeks is how long a lockdown can sustain itself.

Its like any implementation -- its best to escalate the measures and not jump to the nuclear option so quickly. There was no nuance in their approach.

There should also have been a programme for education and building up personal responsibilities in parallel to help the sustainability of the measures.

But they still don't have a solution to address the basic structural flaw in the US healthcare system. And that's a political discussion.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

That's why I have always said that lockdowns are not sustainable both socially/psychologically,financially and economically. It's your last weapon to use. Max I suspect is a month to six weeks is how long a lockdown can sustain itself.

Its like any implementation -- its best to escalate the measures and not jump to the nuclear option so quickly. There was no nuance in their approach.

There should also have been a programme for education and building up personal responsibilities in parallel to help the sustainability of the measures.

But they still don't have a solution to address the basic structural flaw in the US healthcare system. And that's a political discussion.

We have a whole lot of people without insurance today that had it 4 weeks ago. The frustrating part, the absolutely maddening part, is many of us do not believe that is a problem. If they did, they would help find a solution.

The oil worker on tv I heard complaining about being unable to apply for unemployment in Texas said that his COBRA insurance payment was due. He had the savings to cover it, but the cost is enough to put a decent hole in his savings when he has no idea how long it is going to start getting money from Texas.

 

[sglowrider]

We have a whole lot of people without insurance today that had it 4 weeks ago. The frustrating part, the absolutely maddening part, is many of us do not believe that is a problem. If they did, they would help find a solution.

The oil worker on tv I heard complaining about being unable to apply for unemployment in Texas said that his COBRA insurance payment was due. He had the savings to cover it, but the cost is enough to put a decent hole in his savings when he has no idea how long it is going to start getting money from Texas.

I think people just need to taper their expectations -- its caused by a patchwork approach of the last decade or two. And is both a healthcare issue but also a long term structural problem that needs to be addressed in the near term.

The big picture is that there are a lot more viruses that have seemed to appear in the last two decades Iquitos, Itaya, Chapare, Sabia or Guanarito viruses are examples in South America and by far, not the only ones.

H5N1 and H7N9 are interesting examples though, they were both first discovered in Minnesota, Holland among poultry populations in 2009 and 2011.
But later, human contaminations were then first reported in China and in the case of H7N9 in 2013.

The interesting question is whether they were just first reported in China or evolved/spread into humans there?

The big issue is that China and East Asia as a whole are cursed/blessed for a large part, with good tropical weather that viruses and parasites like. Combined with a large percentage of the population living relatively small areas and then you throw in human actions like deforestation....

Wild animals have a smaller area to live which means that we will be more and more in contact with new pathogens.

The same thing is happening in South America and Africa. Europe already burnt its forests and got rid of a substantial part of wildlife, so they are kind of safe.

The States with its appetite for cheap food through industrial farming/livestock may not be out of the woods.

Point is all this virus crap is here to stay in one form or another. Acknowledgement and then preparation is the key.

 

[82hoosier]

How quickly this peaks and how rapidly it declines will be the key. Maybe there will be an effective treatment developed in the near term, before any vaccine. In any case, I think that things will have to be loosened starting this summer, let's say beginning in June. Otherwise we're looking at another Great Depression.

Waiting 18 months would be terrible. But it might be 18 months before they have their arms around this viruus. But in the interim period how long will it take for us to as a country to gear up N95 mass production?What about gloves? Scientist seem to be making daily improvements in testing procedures and their costs.

How much schooling, particularly college, will now be done online rather than in large classrooms or even small classrooms? When will movie theaters become a distant memory? How long will it take before the fashion industry collapses and everybody is buying their clothes and industrial shoes on Amazon? How long will it be before supermarkets are just pick-up or delivery? And what about food rationing cards?

Will everyone have to have their temperature taken every time they go into the mall?

I don’t know what the new normal is going to look like but I can see a scenario where it doesn’t look much like the old normal.

Right now doctors and nurses and other hospital staff approach their job like they’re going to the front line every day. This is not a permanent solution. They are not going to continue to show-up every day and go home and sleep in their basement away from their families so that some people don’t have to suffer the monotony of boredom.

I wonder if government officials are organizing think tanks to work on what the new paradigm shift is going to look like. At this point I think many of them are looking just at the stock market and how to get re-elected.

The sooner elected officials begin to get creative and look for new solutions, the sooner we can begin to dig your way out of this mess.

 

[NPT]

Has anyone read very much about the people that have taken the TB shot seeming to be more resistant to the virus. I saw this article plus a couple others.... it's awful early to know if there's anything to it.

 

[iuwclurker]

 

[iuwclurker]

I think people just need to taper their expectations -- its caused by a patchwork approach of the last decade or two. And is both a healthcare issue but also a long term structural problem that needs to be addressed in the near term.

The big picture is that there are a lot more viruses that have seemed to appear in the last two decades Iquitos, Itaya, Chapare, Sabia or Guanarito viruses are examples in South America and by far, not the only ones.

H5N1 and H7N9 are interesting examples though, they were both first discovered in Minnesota, Holland among poultry populations in 2009 and 2011.
But later, human contaminations were then first reported in China and in the case of H7N9 in 2013.

The interesting question is whether they were just first reported in China or evolved/spread into humans there?

The big issue is that China and East Asia as a whole are cursed/blessed for a large part, with good tropical weather that viruses and parasites like. Combined with a large percentage of the population living relatively small areas and then you throw in human actions like deforestation....

Wild animals have a smaller area to live which means that we will be more and more in contact with new pathogens.

The same thing is happening in South America and Africa. Europe already burnt its forests and got rid of a substantial part of wildlife, so they are kind of safe.

The States with its appetite for cheap food through industrial farming/livestock may not be out of the woods.

Point is all this virus crap is here to stay in one form or another. Acknowledgement and then preparation is the key.

Congress needs to pass laws a blinkered president can’t countermand.

 

[UncleMark]

Has anyone read very much about the people that have taken the TB shot seeming to be more resistant to the virus. I saw this article plus a couple others.... it's awful early to know if there's anything to it.

Interesting. However:

The BCG vaccine contains a live but weakened strain of tuberculosis bacteria that induces antibodies to attack TB bacteria and helps the body develop a defence against the disease.

Unlike other vaccines, the BCG vaccine may also boost the innate immune system, first-line defenses that keep more than one pathogens from causing an infection.
​

IANAD, but since this is a viral infection, it would seem unlikely that a vaccine against a bacterial infection would have much effect. I'd be skeptical of the numbers being thrown out.

Maybe we should ask Sean or Rudy?

 

[iuwclurker]

Interesting. However:

The BCG vaccine contains a live but weakened strain of tuberculosis bacteria that induces antibodies to attack TB bacteria and helps the body develop a defence against the disease.

Unlike other vaccines, the BCG vaccine may also boost the innate immune system, first-line defenses that keep more than one pathogens from causing an infection.
​

IANAD, but since this is a viral infection, it would seem unlikely that a vaccine against a bacterial infection would have much effect. I'd be skeptical of the numbers being thrown out.

Maybe we should ask Sean or Rudy?

Be nice. Kayleigh’s trying hard to get your attention.

 

[NPT]

Interesting. However:

The BCG vaccine contains a live but weakened strain of tuberculosis bacteria that induces antibodies to attack TB bacteria and helps the body develop a defence against the disease.

Unlike other vaccines, the BCG vaccine may also boost the innate immune system, first-line defenses that keep more than one pathogens from causing an infection.
​

IANAD, but since this is a viral infection, it would seem unlikely that a vaccine against a bacterial infection would have much effect. I'd be skeptical of the numbers being thrown out.

Maybe we should ask Sean or Rudy?

That's what I thought but they seem to think that the infection rate is lower in the countries that required the shot.

 

[UncleMark]

That's what I thought but they seem to think that the infection rate is lower in the countries that required the shot.

Yes, I saw the way the numbers were presented. Regardless, I'm still skeptical. Way too many variables to consider before drawing a firm conclusion. An order of magnitude difference would fall into too good to be true territory without an underlying explanation. And of course I hope I'm wrong.

 

[mashnut]

Yes, I saw the way the numbers were presented. Regardless, I'm still skeptical. Way too many variables to consider before drawing a firm conclusion. An order of magnitude difference would fall into too good to be true territory without an underlying explanation. And of course I hope I'm wrong.

Using India as the main piece of evidence for that is too early IMO. They have an even more fragmented political system than the US, are in the early stages of their outbreak, and are likely to be behind on testing the way most of the world has been. It's yet another exciting possibility that needs more time and data.

 

[UncleMark]

They have an even more fragmented political system than the US, are in the early stages of their outbreak, and are likely to be behind on testing the way most of the world has been.

It's all about the denominator.

Would anyone be surprised by a study that showed India had only done 10% of the testing than the other mentioned countries had done?