I agree with your analysis. What also goes unmentioned is that IU basically lost 4 tight ends who were key contributors in the run game and have not replaced them. Again, that’s just due to youth. We don’t know what a lot of the younger Tight ends can do because they haven’t played. So the jury is still out. But Michael Cooper, Corsaro, Friend, and Fuchs were basically additional tackles. Add knight to the mix because he was a TE for a year. That’s a lot of dudes to lose and a whole lot to develop to replace them. Ian Thomas was a good receiver, but wasn’t going to add value in the run game.
As you mentioned Redding was gone, along with a host of lineman. I just don’t think it’s unreasonable to give Allen 4-5 years. If you lose an entire line unit, and if it’s suspect as to whether or not the current roster of lineman can play, I just don’t see how it’s unreasonable to be patient for 4-5 years. IF Allen shows signs that he can’t manage a game, can’t recruit defensively, isn’t a good leader ect. Then I’m all for letting him go earlier. But he’s shown solid game management, the players seem to respect him, he recruited well on defense this year, and he’s made tough coaching moves to push IU forward, most notably upgrading the stregnth and conditioning staff/getting Inge to handle special teams (I fully trust Inge there because I saw what he did for the kickoff team). These are all good things. IF the only thing holding IU back is line play, which I believe your stats backed up, then yes, it could be 4-5 years until the team breaks through, because it takes years to develop a good lineman in most cases in a physical conference like the Big Ten. Usually they need to be juniors, redshirt juniors, or sometimes even seniors before they have the experience to be ready to go. As the recruiting improves, you may get the occasional guy who can come in as a sophomore/redshirt sophomore and contribute. I like the two lineman we got in this class based on their film, speed, size ect. But we’re looking at a 4 year plan. By the time they’re redshirt juniors, that’s when you’ll really see them breakout. It’s not going to happen tomorrow.
Defensive line also needs to improve talent wise, but Allen just brought in the best group of defensive ends I can remember IU bringing in one class. They brought in 4 guys who can ball, and have the size/speed to contribute. But again, it’ll take 3-4 years for those guys to be what IU needs them to be. You’re looking at guys who need to be junior/redshirt juniors with time in the weight room/film room to be the players they’re capable of being. O-line recruiting is going to be an emphasis next year with so many guys coming back.
I like your stats, and they highlight the difference that a line makes. You can pass the ball all over the field and have great DB’s, but if you can’t stop the run, and can’t run the ball, you have no chance to win in the Big Ten. Due to that, I am willing to give TA 4-5 years, unless he shows signs that he isn’t cut out to be a head coach. He’s shown no signs that he can’t IU’s Head Coach. I think he’s the man for the job. And If anything I’m even biased against him because I would not have fired Wilson, and didn’t like the way it was handled.