2025 Markets
- Thread starter snarlcakes
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If the policy was actually different than what you describe, but the results were as you described, would that cause you to reevaluate your view of economic policy?
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 - Wikipedia
Please click on the provisions.
Policy? You think I'm writing policy? Jeebus! I wrote a dozen words and you take it for policy. 😆
I was asked about bond markets. I answered. I have opinions on the Fed and their past performance that cause me not to be very confident in them.
And I don't know what the Republican position is. Go ask one. My position is we are 36T in debt, have SS and Medicare on the road to insolvency, have been listening to the same 70-80 year old fvcks for in economics, academia, and government that got us here. Something needs to change.
A lot of people believe theory over history.
All anyone has to do is look at Trump's first term and realize you can have low inflation, tax cuts, and tarrifs at the same time. All that needs to be done is slow, or hold, spending. But politicians can't keep their hands out of he cookie jar.
You are combining fiscal and monetary policy, for one. Tax cuts are pro growth, which creates inflation. Period.
Of course things can be done to offset them (see Trump tariffs which offset TCJA). That doesn’t fundamentally change the point that was being made that you seemed to imply that cutting taxes is going to actually help with inflationary pressure. It will not, based on indisputable economic mechanics.
Are you assuming governments won’t make corresponding cuts? If there isn’t any new money creation there isn’t going to be inflation from tax cuts.
Will you ever learn the difference between monetary and fiscal policy?
Of course there won't be spending reductions. Pretty foolish to expect that. Oh they'll put 'cuts' in a budget reconciliation bill, cuts that will kick in year 5-10 of the 10 year budget window of the bill.... Once Trump is out of office....And then of course they won't occur then as a future Congress will shit can them. We've already seen this for decades.
This is false. It has been explained to you in great detail.
Please watch Chairman Powell's last pc. This was discussed. They also discussed a Bitcoin reserve, if you need some more encouragement.
You want the Fed to bail out poor fiscal policy decisions? You hate the Fed
No, I disagree that tax cuts cause inflation. They don’t, unless we run deficits because of them. Guilty on the Fed comments. I have Thomas Sowell view on them.
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I agree there won’t be spending reductions . They also won’t raise taxes because it would put the economy in a recession and they’d probably end up with less tax receipts. I’m a Bitcoiner for a reason. If governments were rational and fiscally responsible I would have sold all my Bitcoin yesterday.
If the policy was actually different than what you describe, but the results were as you described, would that cause you to reevaluate your view of economic policy?
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Please click on the provisions.
Tax cuts alone aren’t inflationary. As for the SBR, it will be up to Trump. I think there is a 50% chance of it happening year 1. Almost all of Trump’s appointees are pro Bitcoin and aware of it.
Also I think the higher ups at the DOD already do or eventually will recognize developing a SBR is critical to maintaining our national security.
Why do retail investment advisors recommend diversifying investments?
Why would anyone invest in currency which exists only in the minds of digital players...?
It is vaporware...
Fella named Warren Buffet...has had 'some' success...paraphrased: " I wouldn't give $ .25 cents for all of it".
But you do you...
Just not my Bigelow..
It's possible to have tax cuts without having widespread inflation. But that is much different than what you're claiming.
Do you plan on watching the press conference?
It don’t make no sense. If you increase the rate economic output and velocity of money, of course it will cause inflation.
It’s not a matter of debate. It’s an objective fact.
I tend to agree with you, but isn't the dollar a vapor currency today? It's not like you can take it to a bank and get gold in return.
You can buy gold with it, but you can also buy gold with Bitcoin now.
My problem with Bitcoin is I don't understand it. I understand the conept of it, but the whole block chain thing is like a foreign language to me. And if I don't understand how something works, I'm loathe to jump into it.
I am jealous of snarl's returns in 2024. Wish I had some money in it.
You need to be careful you properly secure your Bitcoin. I recently switched phones and had a wallet that I rarely used on it that used Face ID. Anyhoo, I couldn’t log in with my new phone and was unsure where my seed phrase was. I finally found it after a couple of days. It would have been an expensive mistake.
HOWARD SCHNEIDER. Howard Schneider with Reuters, and thanks for the
opportunity to ask you a question. So this does seem similar to the dynamic in 2016 during the
last transition to a Trump Administration, where the Committee saw slightly tighter policy in
part in expected anticipation of the fiscal policy stance that was seen evolving over the year.
Some of it was a data mark-to-market exercise, and some of it was anticipation of fiscal. What’s
the split on this one? How much of this was accounting for inflation data that was coming in,
and how much of it is expecting that there will be inflationary fiscal policy next year?
HOWARD SCHNEIDER. If I could follow up on that: You mentioned the risk and
uncertainty indexes toward the back of the document. The upside risk to inflation jumped quite
substantially. The only thing, really, that’s happened—you, you mentioned that the
disinflationary story remains intact, yet the risk weighting has jumped to the upside. The only
real thing that’s happened is November 5th, in the meantime. Is it fair to say that that’s what’s
driving the higher sense of upside risk on inflation?
He wasn't laughed out of the room. It was accepted as a given. There’s a reason for that, even if I can’t get you to understand/acknowledge it.
You might want to start from 1st principles and rethink your position here. The idea that increasing productivity leads to inflation doesn’t make any sense. I understand your velocity comments, but that would only lead to short term price increases in certain parts of the markets. Also, I’m assuming we make cuts in the scenario as well.
That story has been in the press for many years now. Always thought it would make a great heist movie, breaking into the dump, searching for that hard drive. @hoosboot , I can write up that script in a month.
If you're the city council, why wouldn't you negotiate with the guy and tell him you'll let him search the dump for 10% of the recovery? Seems like a no brainer.
ETA: Guy offered the City Council 25% of the recovery and they turned it down. WTF?
Bitcoin buried in Newport landfill - Wikipedia
Typical stupid city council. I know muni prosecutor, part time, who had some case he brought to the council and they passed on it. So he asked if they would waive whatever conflict and he could do it. I’m butchering the facts as it has been a while and they said yes but won’t pay him for that time. $90 an hour or something. He got $15 mil.
Back to @DANC i empathize with his reluctance on bit. There’s only so much time we have. So much resources. You can’t do everything. I think it was jamie dimon I recently read that said newborns today will most likely work a 3 day week bc of AI and live to be a 100. They will have opportunities to do more
Being retired for a while now, I have no idea how I managed to work crazy hours, coached my daughter's soccer teams for 6 years, took her to all her activities - she was in a lot of them (my wife and I tag-teamed on it), had time to deal with my dysfunctional family (aren't they all?), keep up with certifications and technology, go to all IU football and most basketball games, hang out at the Hugger, etc., etc., etc.
And I'm being 100% serious - I don't know how anyone works and does all that stuff anymore.
The economy is very dynamic. There are probably more things that are different than are the same.
Interest rates, inflation, labor market, money supply, business cycle, the equilibrium price of millions of markets, ect.
What's the same as 2016 besides the president elect?
Edit: JDB is correct. All things being equal, tax cuts are inflationary. You can't argue against that.
Supply and Demand aren't up for debate. Saying tax cuts don't lead to inflation, because I'm going to suppose an underlying change in something else(in this case government spending) is disingenuous to the argument.
JDB: The sky is blue.
SC: The sky isn't blue.
JDB: It's an objective fact that the sky is blue. It’s just a given.
SC: The sky is not blue, because I'm going to assume a meteor is going to hit the Earth.(Approximately the same likelihood government spending is cut, btw.)
How can you further a conversation when this is the logic being used?
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Interest rates were relatively low, as was inflation. The labor market was good. Don't know about money supply, but I don't remember the Fed doing anything nutty - no QE or anything, at that time. Business was pretty strong.
How about you tell me the differences? You're the one claiming there are 'probably' more differences?
It’s not. It’s just myself being lazy and really f#cking dumb. I had the wallet for 10 years (it was my poker wallet and I never kept much in it) and should have taken the appropriate time to secure the seed phrase prior to getting a new phone. You can access your seed phrase through the wallet. So, I could have quickly wrote it down prior to buying a new phone. It literally would have taken 60 seconds. Instead I thought about it briefly and knew I already written down.
Also, I don’t self custody most of my Bitcoin now. It’s in ETFs and on exchanges. You take 3rd party risk, but at this point it’s more likely I lose it than they do.
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