2025 Markets

[DANC]

It’s not. It’s just myself being lazy and really f#cking dumb. I had the wallet for 10 years (it was my poker wallet and I never kept much in it) and should have taken the appropriate time to secure the seed phrase prior to getting a new phone. You can access your seed phrase through the wallet. So, I could have quickly wrote it down prior to buying a new phone. It literally would have taken 60 seconds. Instead I thought about it briefly and knew I already written down.

Also, I don’t self custody most of my Bitcoin now. It’s in ETFs and on exchanges. You take 3rd party risk, but at this point it’s more likely I lose it than they do.

Yeah, but you're not carrying around the mass of your wealth in your leather wallet.

I'm serious - yeah, you blame yourself, but you're just representative of 90% of most people. We forget to do stuff. We're lazy. I don't want access permanently take away from all my wealth.

I get you don't have everything in your wallet, but would most people have it in other platforms?

I'm not knocking it - just saying this is one of the things that keep me from jumping in.

 

[mcmurtry66]

That story has been in the press for many years now. Always thought it would make a great heist movie, breaking into the dump, searching for that hard drive. @hoosboot , I can write up that script in a month.

If you're the city council, why wouldn't you negotiate with the guy and tell him you'll let him search the dump for 10% of the recovery? Seems like a no brainer.

ETA: Guy offered the City Council 25% of the recovery and they turned it down. WTF?

Bitcoin buried in Newport landfill - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I butchered the story. Now I remember. John said he would do the case for the city and they said no he can’t. So he got permission to do it on his own and pocketed attny’s fees that would have gone to the city.

https://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories/2009/11/16/story1.html

 

[Digressions]

Interest rates were relatively low, as was inflation. The labor market was good. Don't know about money supply, but I don't remember the Fed doing anything nutty - no QE or anything, at that time. Business was pretty strong.

How about you tell me the differences? You're the one claiming there are 'probably' more differences?

I'm not sure what's happening here.
I don't know what to say. I'm speechless.

Good luck, DANC.

 

[snarlcakes]

Yeah, but you're not carrying around the mass of your wealth in your leather wallet.

I'm serious - yeah, you blame yourself, but you're just representative of 90% of most people. We forget to do stuff. We're lazy. I don't want access permanently take away from all my wealth.

I get you don't have everything in your wallet, but would most people have it in other platforms?

I'm not knocking it - just saying this is one of the things that keep me from jumping in.

Do you have retirement accounts? Use PayPal or Cash App? All of those offer Bitcoin now. I trust Blackrock to secure it for me, just like I trust them to secure my other retirements, as well. Also, as we move forward, I think developers/entrepreneurs will make Bitcoin more accessible and easier to use. We're just in the early days. Similar to how the internet was useless to most people in 1990, but now we spend hours arguing with each other on a random website 🤣

 

[DANC]

I'm not sure what's happening here.
I don't know what to say. I'm speechless.

Good luck, DANC.

You could just say you don't know of any major differences. Or identify them, if there are.

Good luck to you, too, Digressions.

 

[stollcpa]

Let me give you a real life example. My buddy sells on Amazon and gets his widget from China. The Trump tariffs increased his costs but he didn't think he could raise prices as none of his competitors were raising them. At the end of the year, his net income declined but now he qualified for QBI and got the 20% break. He actually made more.

So the details matter in the tariffs, the tax rates, QBI income levels and phase outs, etc.

I'm doing my own books right now and I owed 34k in taxes because I was over the QBI level. I'm setting up a cash balance plan to defer a chunk (a biz expense) and it qualifies me for QBI. Now, I am projected to get a 9k refund. Details matter.

You must not have any payroll? Put your wife to work with a large salary. QBI income limits don’t matter if you have enough payroll.

 

[DANC]

Do you have retirement accounts? Use PayPal or Cash App? All of those offer Bitcoin now. I trust Blackrock to secure it for me, just like I trust them to secure my other retirements, as well. Also, as we move forward, I think developers/entrepreneurs will make Bitcoin more accessible and easier to use. We're just in the early days. Similar to how the internet was useless to most people in 1990, but now we spend hours arguing with each other on a random website 🤣

Nope, don't use either of those. Wife uses PayPal.

I know what you're saying, but a lot of people still access their bitcoin on their computer, no? Or their digital wallet?

Early days is sort of my point. I know there are gains to be made for those in on it early, but there's also more risk. Since I'm retired, I'm not as much into risk.

 

[stollcpa]

Policy? You think I'm writing policy? Jeebus! I wrote a dozen words and you take it for policy. 😆

I was asked about bond markets. I answered. I have opinions on the Fed and their past performance that cause me not to be very confident in them.

And I don't know what the Republican position is. Go ask one. My position is we are 36T in debt, have SS and Medicare on the road to insolvency, have been listening to the same 70-80 year old fvcks for in economics, academia, and government that got us here. Something needs to change.

💯

 

[snarlcakes]

HOWARD SCHNEIDER. Howard Schneider with Reuters, and thanks for the
opportunity to ask you a question. So this does seem similar to the dynamic in 2016 during the
last transition to a Trump Administration, where the Committee saw slightly tighter policy in
part in expected anticipation of the fiscal policy stance that was seen evolving over the year.
Some of it was a data mark-to-market exercise, and some of it was anticipation of fiscal. What’s
the split on this one? How much of this was accounting for inflation data that was coming in,
and how much of it is expecting that there will be inflationary fiscal policy next year?


HOWARD SCHNEIDER. If I could follow up on that: You mentioned the risk and
uncertainty indexes toward the back of the document. The upside risk to inflation jumped quite
substantially. The only thing, really, that’s happened—you, you mentioned that the
disinflationary story remains intact, yet the risk weighting has jumped to the upside. The only
real thing that’s happened is November 5th, in the meantime. Is it fair to say that that’s what’s
driving the higher sense of upside risk on inflation?

He wasn't laughed out of the room. It was accepted as a given. There’s a reason for that, even if I can’t get you to understand/acknowledge it.

Sorry, Digressions, I'm not sure what interview you're referring to? I thought it was Powell's comments on Bitcoin. I lost the context through all the back and forths.

My personal position has been a period of stagflation. I think the economy will continue to grow and inflation will continue to be elevated. Not to the level it was in 21, but 4 or even 5% wouldn't shock me. I don't see how we don't have elevated inflation when were running 7-8% deficits and all the other headwinds. I'm also in the camp that fiscal dominance has taken over and the FEDs ability to influence rates has diminished. I think they need to be higher, but they can't because of our debt levels.

For the record, I hope I am wrong, inflation reverses course, and trends back down to 2%. I also hope deficits don't matter, the economy keep humming along, and we all sing kumbaya. It just doesn't seem likely to me that's going to happen.

 

[snarlcakes]

Nope, don't use either of those. Wife uses PayPal.

I know what you're saying, but a lot of people still access their bitcoin on their computer, no? Or their digital wallet?

Early days is sort of my point. I know there are gains to be made for those in on it early, but there's also more risk. Since I'm retired, I'm not as much into risk.

If you buy it through PayPal or an ETF the companies secure the Bitcoin for you. You can't lose it if you lose your password. You can just contact PayPal and reset it. Similar to a bank securing your banking funds.

 

[snarlcakes]

The economy is very dynamic. There are probably more things that are different than are the same.

Interest rates, inflation, labor market, money supply, business cycle, the equilibrium price of millions of markets, ect.

What's the same as 2016 besides the president elect?

Edit: JDB is correct. All things being equal, tax cuts are inflationary. You can't argue against that.

Supply and Demand aren't up for debate. Saying tax cuts don't lead to inflation, because I'm going to suppose an underlying change in something else(in this case government spending) is disingenuous to the argument.

JDB: The sky is blue.

SC: The sky isn't blue.

JDB: It's an objective fact that the sky is blue. It’s just a given.

SC: The sky is not blue, because I'm going to assume a meteor is going to hit the Earth.(Approximately the same likelihood government spending is cut, btw.)

How can you further a conversation when this is the logic being used?

You're essentially admitting tax cuts aren't inflationary when something else has to happen in order for them to be inflationary. Just sayin 🤷‍♂️

 

[rivals01]

I think gold will have a good year in 25. However, it will get crushed by Bitcoin, again.

Edit: The U.S. would wise to sell their gold for Bitcoin. It would weaken China/Russian and strengthen the dollar system.

I was once a stronger advocate also but have growing concerns with btc.
Not maturing into a currency, privacy issues, decline in self custody, and now direct involvement with governments.

Everything about the draw of decentralization is being centralized.
Unfortunately I think that has been the underlying plan all along.

 

[ribbont]

You must not have any payroll? Put your wife to work with a large salary. QBI income limits don’t matter if you have enough payroll.

She's already on it and I pay myself quite a bit and her enough to max the 401k. Have to pay myself a lot to max the cash balance contribution, keep the net income low.

But I am open to advice. Will meet with my CPA soon.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Macroeconomics has objective facts?

Do you even GDP formula?

 

[ribbont]

If the policy was actually different than what you describe, but the results were as you described, would that cause you to reevaluate your view of economic policy?

Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Please click on the provisions.

Well, I am going to eat my humble pie as I put 1994 but was thinking 1996 when capital gains taxes were reduced to 20% from 28%. Like I said, watching football and posting on WC don't mix (and several beers last night).

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

You might want to start from 1st principles and rethink your position here. The idea that increasing productivity leads to inflation doesn’t make any sense. I understand your velocity comments, but that would only lead to short term price increases in certain parts of the markets. Also, I’m assuming we make cuts in the scenario as well.

You are conflating multiple policy decisions together. In practice, nothing can be done in a vacuum. But there are individual consequences for specific policies, and claiming that subsequent decisions to counteract prior ones does not change the fact that tax cuts increase growth and growth and inflation move together as they are positively correlated.

The other problem with assumptions around multiple policy decisions is that the timing and magnitude is subjective. Tax cuts themselves can be more inflationary or less inflationary, but they are inflationary.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

And yet, it's happened in the recent past.

Sit this one out grandpa.

 

[ribbont]

You are combining fiscal and monetary policy, for one. Tax cuts are pro growth, which creates inflation. Period.

Of course things can be done to offset them (see Trump tariffs which offset TCJA). That doesn’t fundamentally change the point that was being made that you seemed to imply that cutting taxes is going to actually help with inflationary pressure. It will not, based on indisputable economic mechanics.

I'm not combining them and I wasn't trying to imply anything.

I simply was showing a time in 1994 (and I used the wrong year last night as I meant to use 1996 cap gain tax cuts. My bad).

 

[stollcpa]

She's already on it and I pay myself quite a bit and her enough to max the 401k. Have to pay myself a lot to max the cash balance contribution, keep the net income low.

But I am open to advice. Will meet with my CPA soon.

If you have a high payroll I am wondering why the QBID is a problem.

i have clients making profits in the millions and their QBID isn’t limited because they have enough business wages being paid out.

 

[Digressions]

You must not have any payroll? Put your wife to work with a large salary. QBI income limits don’t matter if you have enough payroll.

You’re the man, Stoll.

Have I ever asked you if you know Elijah? I feel like I did years ago, but if I did, I forgot the answer.

 

[stollcpa]

She's already on it and I pay myself quite a bit and her enough to max the 401k. Have to pay myself a lot to max the cash balance contribution, keep the net income low.

But I am open to advice. Will meet with my CPA soon.

Computing qualified W-2 wages for Sec. 199A purposes

Computing total W-2 wages under Sec. 199A appears daunting, in part because three possible methods are available to do so.

www.thetaxadviser.com

 

[stollcpa]

You’re the man, Stoll.

Have I ever asked you if you know Elijah? I feel like I did years ago, but if I did, I forgot the answer.

Which Elijah? There are a few. One is African American.

 

[Digressions]

You're essentially admitting tax cuts aren't inflationary when something else has to happen in order for them to be inflationary. Just sayin 🤷‍♂️

Quite the opposite. I'm saying all things equal. You’re surprising us with conditions.

 

[Digressions]

Which Elijah? There are a few. One is African American.

Elijah Stoll. Yes, he is African American. We played football at the same time.

 

[Digressions]

If you buy it through PayPal or an ETF the companies secure the Bitcoin for you. You can't lose it if you lose your password. You can just contact PayPal and reset it. Similar to a bank securing your banking funds.

Which ETF do you prefer?

 

[stollcpa]

Elijah Stoll. Yes, he is African American. We played football at the same time.

His mom would be a relative of mine I believe. His mom went through very tuff times in the Mennonite church. Thankfully the church has grown and attitudes have changed. His mom is a wonderful lady. I don’t know his dad well but I think he’s a good dude.

I had relatives that didn’t come to my wedding with my first wife because she was “English”. English meaning not of Amish/Mennonite descent.

 

[DontComeAroundMuch]

Which ETF do you prefer?

I bought FBTC in August and am up almost 70%.

Snarl ain’t lying.

 

[Digressions]

I bought FBTC in August and am up almost 70%.

Snarl ain’t lying.

I don't know anyone with a passion for anything, like Snarl has for Bitcoin. I trust he knows his stuff. I have my doubts about some of the logic behind it, but that doesn't mean it can't be a good investment.

 

[Digressions]

Well, I am going to eat my humble pie as I put 1994 but was thinking 1996 when capital gains taxes were reduced to 20% from 28%. Like I said, watching football and posting on WC don't mix (and several beers last night).

I appreciate you sharing your thoughts and putting yourself out there. You were asked a question and you answered it. I may not agree with all of it, but it's always an interesting conversation for me.

 

[snarlcakes]

Which ETF do you prefer?

I own IBIT and ARKB. They're all pretty close on fees now and are required to purchase actual Bitcoin, within 24 hours, to back their shares.

 

[ribbont]

If you have a high payroll I am wondering why the QBID is a problem.

i have clients making profits in the millions and their QBID isn’t limited because they have enough business wages being paid out.

I am an SSTB and IIRC, that limits my QBI. So I am doing the cash balance plan to create a big expense to offset net income. But to have that big expense, I need a big wage for me.

I probably could look at paying my wife a big wage, but I'm afraid that would be a red flag as she isn't licensed and has been a teacher for a decade.

 

[DANC]

Sit this one out grandpa.

Do continue with your theories. Meanwhile, I'll carry on in the real world, junior.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

I'm not combining them and I wasn't trying to imply anything.

I simply was showing a time in 1994 (and I used the wrong year last night as I meant to use 1996 cap gain tax cuts. My bad).

But you aren’t isolating singular policy choices. 1990 whatever cannot be looked without acknowledging tons of conflicting and collaborative policies working together and against each other at the same time.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Quite the opposite. I'm saying all things equal. You’re surprising us with conditions.

Snarl needs to learn Ceteris Paribus

 

[Digressions]

Elijah Stoll. Yes, he is African American. We played football at the same time.

He was a great football player. I always appreciated his abilities and his demeanor.

 

[stollcpa]

He was a great football player. I always appreciated his abilities and his demeanor.

I don’t know him personally, just his mom. She’s a strong woman. I watched him play football. He seemed to have great attitude.