2017 Projections: IU comes in at #39

[Bowlmania]

Oh gee......I've only followed IU and college football for 45 years. Me hoping we can improve to 7-6 from 6-7.....if you think that is "extreme", well, I am honestly at a loss for words for you. If you think Redding is a huge loss, then that's your opinion. I'm not worried about it.

The fact of the matter is, we are definitely NOT in a rebuilding mode. We promoted Allen and kept things in place as much as we possibly could after having to release Wilson. We did not go and hire a new coach and have all kinds of turnover. Teams lose some of their best players every year, and this year we have lost fewer than normal. Go ahead and point out those great players all you want, we have a ton coming back. That is not optimism, that is realism. I have never been one to have false expectations, and thinking we can continue our improvement - even only slightly - is hardly an extreme.

I wouldn't even bother anymore, rcaulfie. It's an unusual position that is essentially "set the bar low so the fans don't turn on the HC if they have a bad season." Look, there will be jokers/idiots calling for his head if IU loses Game 1 to Ohio State. You don't go into college coaching if you can't deal with public criticism - - whether it's rational or ridiculous. Further, it doesn't matter what the fans think anyway because he'll be back for year 2 irrespective of what happens in year 1.

I'm predicting 7-5 this season. I'm also predicting that our friend from out west won't be hired for a sales or marketing position with IU Athletics anytime soon.

 

[IUcolorado]

Oh gee......I've only followed IU and college football for 45 years. Me hoping we can improve to 7-6 from 6-7.....if you think that is "extreme", well, I am honestly at a loss for words for you. If you think Redding is a huge loss, then that's your opinion. I'm not worried about it.

The fact of the matter is, we are definitely NOT in a rebuilding mode. We promoted Allen and kept things in place as much as we possibly could after having to release Wilson. We did not go and hire a new coach and have all kinds of turnover. Teams lose some of their best players every year, and this year we have lost fewer than normal. Go ahead and point out those great players all you want, we have a ton coming back. That is not optimism, that is realism. I have never been one to have false expectations, and thinking we can continue our improvement - even only slightly - is hardly an extreme.

You may have followed FB for 45 years...but you didnt learn the right lessons, thats obvious. Lets see if we have a 1000 yd runner this year...Redding did it 2 years in a row, one playing behind the starter. He had his limitations, but we'll be lucky to match his output this year.

There is nothing wrong with optimism...except the way youre weilding it. To try to shout down those with a very "realistic" or conservative view of the next couple of seasons sounds engenuious at best...desparate at worst.

Looking at the empending challenges of next season without drinking the koolaide does not make bad fans. Ive followed IU FB up close and personal since getting my degree there. Ive spent years as a season ticket holder and sat there through all the lean years with my son, dreaming about better days. We are closer now than at any time Ive been a fan. But Ive watched IU go through these changes before. Allen cant prevent whats to come, only rise above it.

When the team can...and that is as unproven now as any time in the last 20 years...Wilson never got there...we will get better.

But youre trying to tell me that in this staffs 1st year, they will accomplish what no one has done in decades?

Who's smokin' what?! Vbg

 

[IUcolorado]

I wouldn't even bother anymore, rcaulfie. It's an unusual position that is essentially "set the bar low so the fans don't turn on the HC if they have a bad season." Look, there will be jokers/idiots calling for his head if IU loses Game 1 to Ohio State. You don't go into college coaching if you can't deal with public criticism - - whether it's rational or ridiculous. Further, it doesn't matter what the fans think anyway because he'll be back for year 2 irrespective of what happens in year 1.

I'm predicting 7-5 this season. I'm also predicting that our friend from out west won't be hired for a sales or marketing position with IU Athletics anytime soon.

Funny you should say that...I spent over 25 years in sales and marketing. You recognize the smell of BS very easily....vbg...take a deep breath...

 

[Bowlmania]

Funny you should say that...I spent over 25 years in sales and marketing. You recognize the smell of BS very easily....vbg...take a deep breath...

Easy does it, cowboy. The comment was just a bit of humor. I'll be sure to add "vbg" next time. Vbg.

One final thought before I get back to work. You commented to rcaulfie: "...youre trying to tell me that in this staffs 1st year, they will accomplish what no one has done in decades?" What unprecedented accomplishment has he predicted?

 

[YOTHN]

Being a positive cheerleader is in my opinion usually a good thing but saying "we didn't really lose anyone" is taking it way past just being positive!

We lost Dan Feeney, probably the best G in the country, we lost Oliver at LB, who often kept us in games by routinely creating take aways, we lost a two years in a row 1,000 yard RB, we lost a HC who's supposed to be one of the brightest minds in the game in regard to offensive football, and we lost one of the best OL coaches in the game.

That's not even mentioning big Ralph Green at DT and the leadership of our diminutive slot reciever/punt returner/holder..., along with an undersized QB who only helped win us two Bucket games and nearly beat "the" O$U... And I'm certain I'm leaving out several guys...

We didn't lose anybody??!??

Are we operating in "alternative facts" mode today???

Look, this exaggeration of the losses the team has is what is baffling. In the same sentence people are saying "we are losing so much" but then also saying "we can't just expect success because we return the most talent".....?!? The worst one can point at would be OL. Dan Feeney is great, hands down. He also missed 4 weeks and IU's line didn't really miss a beat. We only had Camiel for a short time so although it would've been a big get had he come back, I don't look at losing him as a "loss" per say. He missed most of the season. The only OL who played all season that will be gone is Wes Rogers. IU was able to put a great rotation of guys onto the field due to others guys not being available so there's a lot of experience coming back that played well to make up for the loss of Rogers and Feeney. Coy Cronk was fantastic too. I truly don't expect much of a fall off there. At least not to the levels most fear will happen.

When it comes to RB, I actually preferred a couple others ahead of Redding this season. That would obviously just be my own opinion though and wouldn't reflect most fans beliefs. Redding was solid but I never saw him as a must have piece of the puzzle. Insert the idea of getting Patrick back there playing with the guys we do have and adding in the new guys, I think we'll be just fine at RB.

Defensively, I liked Oliver because of the strength he brought but we were a fast defense last year. Bringing back Fant, Scales, Ball to go with the defensive talent we are bringing in and adding another year of the same system, I have no doubt the D will be much better than they were last year and that says a lot.

So I truly don't understand why people are underselling next season. The offense this year had so many turnovers that resulted in TD's that I have a hard time seeing next years offense put the team in a worse position than this years team did. Factor in that we get Cobbs back to go with Westbrook, Harris, Patrick, Timian. I expect 7-5 at the worst.

 

[Bobsnotbucks]

Look, this exaggeration of the losses the team has is what is baffling. In the same sentence people are saying "we are losing so much" but then also saying "we can't just expect success because we return the most talent".....?!? The worst one can point at would be OL. Dan Feeney is great, hands down. He also missed 4 weeks and IU's line didn't really miss a beat. We only had Camiel for a short time so although it would've been a big get had he come back, I don't look at losing him as a "loss" per say. He missed most of the season. The only OL who played all season that will be gone is Wes Rogers. IU was able to put a great rotation of guys onto the field due to others guys not being available so there's a lot of experience coming back that played well to make up for the loss of Rogers and Feeney. I truly don't expect much of a fall off there.

When it comes to RB, I actually preferred a couple others ahead of Redding this season. That would obviously just be my own opinion though and wouldn't reflect most fans beliefs. Redding was solid but I never saw him as a must have piece of the puzzle. Insert the idea of getting Patrick back there playing with the guys we do have and adding in the new guys, I think we'll be just fine at RB.

Defensively, I liked Oliver because of the strength he brought but we were a fast defense last year. Bringing back Fant, Scales, Ball to go with the defensive talent we are bringing in and adding another year of the same system, I have no doubt the D will be much better than they were last year and that says a lot.

So I truly don't understand why people are underselling next season. The offense this year had so many turnovers that resulted in TD's that I have a hard time seeing next years offense put the team in a worse position than this years team did. Factor in that we get Cobbs back to go with Westbrook, Harris, Patrick, Timian. I expect 7-5 at the worst.

After Feeney went down, IU's offensive line "didn't really miss a beat"? That's simply, unequivocally not true. Beyond that, the nearly complete turnover of IU's offensive staff is being dismissed by many here, which I think is a huge oversight.

 

[10yrProject]

YOTHN usually I agree with you but this "IU's line didn't miss a beat" stuff is nonsense. While Feeney was out we were averaging something like two yards a carry. We were something like 1-4 while he was out...

Feeney was huge loss then and will be a big hole to fill this fall. The entire right side of the OL is a big ? mark.

Losing the guts of our D with Green & Oliver moving on is a bigger deal than people apparently realize also.

Do we have a chance to be good? Of course!

Is it preordained (that they'll be good) because we have a bunch of guys coming back from a sub-.500 team? Not hardly.

Am I rooting for them to be good to great? You bet I am!!!

 

[rcaulfie]

Actually, they did hire a new coach, and there was tremendous offensive coaching turnover, and there were huge losses at running back and in the offensive line, and there are plenty of question marks about the ability to replace them. I don't know if "rebuilding" is the most applicable term, but it will be a year of transition for sure, and those are typically quite unpredictable.

Okay, I will state it better for you. They did not go and bring in a new head coach from another program, one that would have brought in an entire new staff. I thought people would pick up on what i meant, but I guess that was a poor assumption on my part. We kept things as static as possible. Frey was going to be gone no matter what, even if we had Wilson. And we got rid of Johns because frankly, he wasn't up to the task. You can say our OL will be rebuilding....I would agree with that. But everything else (outside of RB) has depth and experience. (And like I stated before, I believe Patrick, Natee, Williams, Gest - whoever else - will fill in nicely for Redding.)

 

[rcaulfie]

Losing the guts of our D with Green & Oliver moving on is a bigger deal than people apparently realize also.

So, we lose 2 guys and that is the "guts" of our D? No way. For one, we rotate our DT's in so much, Green isn't that big of a loss. Hoff can fill his void by himself. (Plus we have all kinds of depth on the DL.) Oliver hurts, but Tegray is better and Covington/Willis will make you not miss him at all. Mark my words.

 

[RBB89]

How long have you followed IU FB? NCAA FB? It took everything we had to just win 6 games the last 2 seasons. Redding is not Coleman or Howard...but damn man hes a 1000 yd runner! How easy do you think that is to do? Either the olines responsible or Redding was...and both are gone. Theres talent upcoming, but mostly unproven. Optimism is great...but Im afraid youre the one with an extreme view. We might play like we dont have new coaches working as a staff for the first time, overhauled d&o lines, new skill players starting, and a HC that thinks he can still be a coordinator but has never tried it before.

Might work...might not. This is a program and team in transition. They might hit the road running at top speed...but that doesnt happen often, and never has at IU. More likely its going to take a couple of seasons to hit their stride...or fall flat on their faces. Right now, there is no way to know.

Soooo...expect some good and some bad next season. This team still doesnt know how to win. One offseason isnt going to erase that. Give them time...why must we start off gangbusters? Are you willing to wait until they do before calling for another change? Thats the trap of enthusiasm....its a sword that cuts both ways. Beware...

The trap of enthusiasm...

You realize we're talking about entertainment here, right? I'm not going to mope around dreading the next IU football season. No one is predicting 11-1. Suggesting that it will take a few seasons to get back to a bowl is ridiculous, and calling expectations of a bowl appearance "pie in the sky" dreams is equally ridiculous.

 

[RBB89]

You may have followed FB for 45 years...but you didnt learn the right lessons, thats obvious. Lets see if we have a 1000 yd runner this year...Redding did it 2 years in a row, one playing behind the starter. He had his limitations, but we'll be lucky to match his output this year.

There is nothing wrong with optimism...except the way youre weilding it. To try to shout down those with a very "realistic" or conservative view of the next couple of seasons sounds engenuious at best...desparate at worst.

Looking at the empending challenges of next season without drinking the koolaide does not make bad fans. Ive followed IU FB up close and personal since getting my degree there. Ive spent years as a season ticket holder and sat there through all the lean years with my son, dreaming about better days. We are closer now than at any time Ive been a fan. But Ive watched IU go through these changes before. Allen cant prevent whats to come, only rise above it.

When the team can...and that is as unproven now as any time in the last 20 years...Wilson never got there...we will get better.

But youre trying to tell me that in this staffs 1st year, they will accomplish what no one has done in decades?

Who's smokin' what?! Vbg

What no one has done in decades?

We're talking about going like 7-5.

 

[IUPaterade724]

After Feeney went down, IU's offensive line "didn't really miss a beat"? That's simply, unequivocally not true. Beyond that, the nearly complete turnover of IU's offensive staff is being dismissed by many here, which I think is a huge oversight.

I was worried when the same sentiment was on display in regards to the basketball team never skipping a beat this season with YF's departure. Many on the board, including myself, didn't fully grasp how bad we would miss him. It was a huge oversight. You can't lose your PG of four years and expect a transfer (JN) to come in and fill the void in a position so crucial to Crean's "system".

I'm going to curtail my expectations of the offense this year with so many unknown variables between staff and personnel. I predict a very good season this year would be 6 wins and a bowl. I do, however, expect our defense to be as good as last year and special team's play to improve (How can't it?).

 

[rcaulfie]

You may have followed FB for 45 years...but you didnt learn the right lessons, thats obvious. Lets see if we have a 1000 yd runner this year...Redding did it 2 years in a row, one playing behind the starter. He had his limitations, but we'll be lucky to match his output this year.

There is nothing wrong with optimism...except the way youre weilding it. To try to shout down those with a very "realistic" or conservative view of the next couple of seasons sounds engenuious at best...desparate at worst.

Looking at the empending challenges of next season without drinking the koolaide does not make bad fans. Ive followed IU FB up close and personal since getting my degree there. Ive spent years as a season ticket holder and sat there through all the lean years with my son, dreaming about better days. We are closer now than at any time Ive been a fan. But Ive watched IU go through these changes before. Allen cant prevent whats to come, only rise above it.

When the team can...and that is as unproven now as any time in the last 20 years...Wilson never got there...we will get better.

But youre trying to tell me that in this staffs 1st year, they will accomplish what no one has done in decades?

Who's smokin' what?! Vbg

#1 - Oh, I have learned plenty from my IU football fandom, and I know how it usually goes. But that being said, the last few years have not gone that way. I mean, we HAVE improved every year in the last 4-5 years. (Outside of the year where Tre transferred, Sudfeld got hurt and Zander wasn't ready as a true freshman.) And that is all I'm expecting is to improve on last year. I know better than to think this team will be 9-3 or something....and you act like that is what I'm saying, which could not be further from the truth. But it seems to me the issue really is with yourself, and I can't blame you for what we have gone through in the past. When things have started to look up, we have a piss poor season. I know that. But we also haven't gone to back-to-back bowl games in 25 years, either, so things aren't the same.

#2 - we will NOT have a 1,000-yard rusher next year. I know we won't, and you must have missed that point as well. Why won't we? Because we will NOT have a RB with that % of the carries. We will spread it around. AND we will be totally fine. At least at RB.....if we can't run, it will be because of the OL. Nobody, even you, will be saying "man, if ONLY we had Redding back!"

 

[rcaulfie]

The trap of enthusiasm...

You realize we're talking about entertainment here, right? I'm not going to mope around dreading the next IU football season. No one is predicting 11-1. Suggesting that it will take a few seasons to get back to a bowl is ridiculous, and calling expectations of a bowl appearance "pie in the sky" dreams is equally ridiculous.

That was really my point all along. And then I'm told "nothing wrong with optimism, just how I'm wielding it"......uhhhhh, okay.....

 

[DANC]

Look, this exaggeration of the losses the team has is what is baffling. In the same sentence people are saying "we are losing so much" but then also saying "we can't just expect success because we return the most talent".....?!? The worst one can point at would be OL. Dan Feeney is great, hands down. He also missed 4 weeks and IU's line didn't really miss a beat. We only had Camiel for a short time so although it would've been a big get had he come back, I don't look at losing him as a "loss" per say. He missed most of the season. The only OL who played all season that will be gone is Wes Rogers. IU was able to put a great rotation of guys onto the field due to others guys not being available so there's a lot of experience coming back that played well to make up for the loss of Rogers and Feeney. Coy Cronk was fantastic too. I truly don't expect much of a fall off there. At least not to the levels most fear will happen.

When it comes to RB, I actually preferred a couple others ahead of Redding this season. That would obviously just be my own opinion though and wouldn't reflect most fans beliefs. Redding was solid but I never saw him as a must have piece of the puzzle. Insert the idea of getting Patrick back there playing with the guys we do have and adding in the new guys, I think we'll be just fine at RB.

Defensively, I liked Oliver because of the strength he brought but we were a fast defense last year. Bringing back Fant, Scales, Ball to go with the defensive talent we are bringing in and adding another year of the same system, I have no doubt the D will be much better than they were last year and that says a lot.

So I truly don't understand why people are underselling next season. The offense this year had so many turnovers that resulted in TD's that I have a hard time seeing next years offense put the team in a worse position than this years team did. Factor in that we get Cobbs back to go with Westbrook, Harris, Patrick, Timian. I expect 7-5 at the worst.

We missed Feeney when he was out. A lot.

 

[YOTHN]

YOTHN usually I agree with you but this "IU's line didn't miss a beat" stuff is nonsense. While Feeney was out we were averaging something like two yards a carry. We were something like 1-4 while he was out...

Feeney was huge loss then and will be a big hole to fill this fall. The entire right side of the OL is a big ? mark.

Losing the guts of our D with Green & Oliver moving on is a bigger deal than people apparently realize also.

Do we have a chance to be good? Of course!

Is it preordained (that they'll be good) because we have a bunch of guys coming back from a sub-.500 team? Not hardly.

Am I rooting for them to be good to great? You bet I am!!!

Wait, Wake was a game where I believe we had 6 TO's no? So Feeney went down and we promptly beat MSU. Then lose a close game AT Ohio State, at Northwestern and home vs a great Nebraska team (barely). That is what we're going to use to say there's a huge drop off in the OL? Nah. Even coach Wilson said: "Feeney is the team's best lineman and "one of the all-time great right guards," Wilson said "Indiana's offensive line didn't take a big step backwards against the Demon Deacons."

So you can think that and it's possible but I don't think its a slam dunk of a drop off like you think it will be. I will have to choose to respectfully disagree.

 

[Bobsnotbucks]

I was worried when the same sentiment was on display in regards to the basketball team never skipping a beat this season with YF's departure. Many on the board, including myself, didn't fully grasp how bad we would miss him. It was a huge oversight. You can't lose your PG of four years and expect a transfer (JN) to come in and fill the void in a position so crucial to Crean's "system".

I'm going to curtail my expectations of the offense this year with so many unknown variables between staff and personnel. I predict a very good season this year would be 6 wins and a bowl. I do, however, expect our defense to be as good as last year and special team's play to improve (How can't it?).

Five or six wins in this, a transition season, would be great. Staff turnover on offense, some key losses, a conference schedule that includes the four best teams plus what will likely be a rejuvenated MSU team, and an OOC schedule that features no easy opponents, makes something close to a .500 result pretty darn good.

 

[10yrProject]

So, we lose 2 guys and that is the "guts" of our D? No way. For one, we rotate our DT's in so much, Green isn't that big of a loss. Hoff can fill his void by himself. (Plus we have all kinds of depth on the DL.) Oliver hurts, but Tegray is better and Covington/Willis will make you not miss him at all. Mark my words.

Well..., all I can tell you is I hope you are right.

I can also tell you that, when it counted against Utah, the replacements for Oliver weren't as good.

Do I think the guys on this years team can work hard enough over the next 6+ months to become really good to great? The answer is yes I do think they can if they want it for themselves bad enough.

Do I think that we will win any games simply based on our high number of returning starters from a 6-7 team?

The answer (from my perspective) is that if any of our actual Team or Staff approach next season with that thought process it's going to be to their detriment.

Our guys need to get a lot better in all phases of the game, across the board. Let's hope they have the maturity and Team leadership to do it.

 

[Bobsnotbucks]

Wait, Wake was a game where I believe we had 6 TO's no? So Feeney went down and we promptly beat MSU. Then lose a close game AT Ohio State, at Northwestern and home vs a great Nebraska team (barely). That is what we're going to use to say there's a huge drop off in the OL? Nah. Even coach Wilson said: "Feeney is the team's best lineman and "one of the all-time great right guards," Wilson said "Indiana's offensive line didn't take a big step backwards against the Demon Deacons."

So you can think that and it's possible but I don't think its a slam dunk of a drop off like you think it will be. I will have to choose to respectfully disagree.

"A great Nebraska team"? No.

 

[DANC]

Wait, Wake was a game where I believe we had 6 TO's no? So Feeney went down and we promptly beat MSU. Then lose a close game AT Ohio State, at Northwestern and home vs a great Nebraska team (barely). That is what we're going to use to say there's a huge drop off in the OL? Nah. Even coach Wilson said: "Feeney is the team's best lineman and "one of the all-time great right guards," Wilson said "Indiana's offensive line didn't take a big step backwards against the Demon Deacons."

So you can think that and it's possible but I don't think its a slam dunk of a drop off like you think it will be. I will have to choose to respectfully disagree.

Um, do you know why we didn't beat O$U, Northwestern, and Nebraska? It was the Offense. Specifically, running the ball.

And you think those INTs against Wake came about because Lagow had all day to throw? Why was that?

C'mon, man.

 

[ESalum86]

So this thread is basically an argument over whether or not IU fans should be optimistic?! Why would anyone try to dampen enthusiasm? This is the mindset we are trying to escape!

CTA changed the attitude and culture of the defense in 8 months and it led to some great results! Imagine if he can do the same thing for the whole team? Instead of hoping we make a play to close out a game while expecting it won't happen; imagine what can happen if the team truly believes we will make that play!

Yes, I know IU football history. Lee Corso was the head coach when I enrolled. I spoke with Bill Mallory in the Ross Ade Stadium locker room after his final Bucket win. I have a picture with my son and I standing with Tevin Coleman following his final Bucket victory.

I will enter this season, and every game, expecting to win. When it is all finished I'll be thankful I got to watch these young men represent my alma mater and state. If you are waiting for the other shoe to drop, wait by yourself.

Lock yer damn jaw; let's play the game!

 

[IUPaterade724]

Five or six wins in this, a transition season, would be great. Staff turnover on offense, some key losses, a conference schedule that includes the four best teams plus what will likely be a rejuvenated MSU team, and an OOC schedule that features no easy opponents, makes something close to a .500 result pretty darn good.

Exactly. It will be a "very good" season in my mind if we can get to .500.

 

[Bobsnotbucks]

So this thread is basically an argument over whether or not IU fans should be optimistic?! Why would anyone try to dampen enthusiasm? This is the mindset we are trying to escape!

CTA changed the attitude and culture of the defense in 8 months and it led to some great results! Imagine if he can do the same thing for the whole team? Instead of hoping we make a play to close out a game while expecting it won't happen; imagine what can happen if the team truly believes we will make that play!

Yes, I know IU football history. Lee Corso was the head coach when I enrolled. I spoke with Bill Mallory in the Ross Ade Stadium locker room after his final Bucket win. I have a picture with my son and I standing with Tevin Coleman following his final Bucket victory.

I will enter this season, and every game, expecting to win. When it is all finished I'll be thankful I got to watch these young men represent my alma mater and state. If you are waiting for the other shoe to drop, wait by yourself.

Lock yer damn jaw; let's play the game!

Wouldn't call it an argument as much as a brutally honest assessment from some as to where the program currently is, as well as the very real challenges and obstacles that exist heading into the upcoming season. I think that can and should be done by fans, and it has nothing to do with IU's well known history of football futility.

It is, however, directly impacted by the recent player and coach turnover, the returning talent and experience (players and coaches), and the schedule. One can be both optimistic based on program loyalty yet also realistic given the number of challenging issues confronting the 2017 team.

 

[YOTHN]

So this thread is basically an argument over whether or not IU fans should be optimistic?! Why would anyone try to dampen enthusiasm? This is the mindset we are trying to escape!

CTA changed the attitude and culture of the defense in 8 months and it led to some great results! Imagine if he can do the same thing for the whole team? Instead of hoping we make a play to close out a game while expecting it won't happen; imagine what can happen if the team truly believes we will make that play!

Yes, I know IU football history. Lee Corso was the head coach when I enrolled. I spoke with Bill Mallory in the Ross Ade Stadium locker room after his final Bucket win. I have a picture with my son and I standing with Tevin Coleman following his final Bucket victory.

I will enter this season, and every game, expecting to win. When it is all finished I'll be thankful I got to watch these young men represent my alma mater and state. If you are waiting for the other shoe to drop, wait by yourself.

Lock yer damn jaw; let's play the game!

Why don't you go to the PU message board to post all this whacky optimism. We can't have that here on OUR fan forum!

 

[RBB89]

Why don't you go to the PU message board to post all this whacky optimism. We can't have that here on OUR fan forum!

Yeah we've got our own fans downplaying good preseason pub. ?????

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

Wouldn't call it an argument as much as a brutally honest assessment from some as to where the program currently is, as well as the very real challenges and obstacles that exist heading into the upcoming season. I think that can and should be done by fans, and it has nothing to do with IU's well known history of football futility.

It is, however, directly impacted by the recent player and coach turnover, the returning talent and experience (players and coaches), and the schedule. One can be both optimistic based on program loyalty yet also realistic given the number of challenging issues confronting the 2017 team.

We hear this stuff every year. Last year we changed DC and lost impact players on D and that was pointed at as to why defense would not improve. Players are lost every year and position coaches and coordinators change often and the world just keeps on spinning. The truth is it could go either way and nobody has any idea which, but the same people want to play the dirges and cry havoc. There are no certainties even for the best teams and what wins the day is hard work, dedication, and a coach that has everyone buying in and pulling the rope in the same direction. I think Allen has proven he is a guy that can do that so optimism is entirely understandable.

 

[Bowlmania]

I think Allen has proven he is a guy that can do that so optimism is entirely understandable.

And we picked up an OC from an elite Power 5 school who clearly knows what he's doing.

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

And we picked up an OC from an elite Power 5 school who clearly knows what he's doing.

For sure, and all the coaches we have picked up are proven guys who have had more than a modicum of success.

 

[Bobsnotbucks]

We hear this stuff every year. Last year we changed DC and lost impact players on D and that was pointed at as to why defense would not improve. Players are lost every year and position coaches and coordinators change often and the world just keeps on spinning. The truth is it could go either way and nobody has any idea which, but the same people want to play the dirges and cry havoc. There are no certainties even for the best teams and what wins the day is hard work, dedication, and a coach that has everyone buying in and pulling the rope in the same direction. I think Allen has proven he is a guy that can do that so optimism is entirely understandable.

All for optimism. Just trying to inject some facts and reality into the discussion, as well.

 

[Bowlmania]

For sure, and all the coaches we have picked up are proven guys who have had more than a modicum of success.

Great point.

 

[rcaulfie]

All for optimism. Just trying to inject some facts and reality into the discussion, as well.

Well, that is debatable. You mentioned before with all of our "player turnover", and outside of our OL - that just isn't accurate. Offensive coaching turnover? Yes. Player, not so much. With what we do l lose, you could honestly have that argument EVERY year, because that is the nature of college football when players graduate. Fact of the matter is, we lose less than average from last year's team - despite all of your claims otherwise.

 

[Bobsnotbucks]

Well, that is debatable. You mentioned before with all of our "player turnover", and outside of our OL - that just isn't accurate. Offensive coaching turnover? Yes. Player, not so much. With what we do l lose, you could honestly have that argument EVERY year, because that is the nature of college football when players graduate. Fact of the matter is, we lose less than average from last year's team - despite all of your claims otherwise.

The offensive losses are significant, as much as you and others want to down play them. They start up front, where four guys who played a ton of ball over the last four years are gone, it continues with the loss of a two time 1,000 rusher who was largely healthy and thus reliable throughout his iu career, two very productive receivers who moved the chains consistently and also contributed on special teams, a bullpen quarterback who, while overmatched, still made some clutch plays in his career, the team's best defensive lineman, and the team's best linebacker. Those are the accuracies I've mentioned.

And that's before the coaching turnover, which is enormous offensively. I like the guys coming in, but there's probably only one true upgrade in that group and, when you consider the loss of Wilson, it's a unit that will be challenged to just maintain its recent standard.

Again, I love breezy optimism and I'm definitely not predicting a sightseeing tour that ends up with a ride over the cliff, but I just like to couple it with equal doses of facts and reality.

 

[Bowlmania]

The below link is a subset of the data contained in the link that RBB89 provided at the beginning of this thread. It demonstrates (not surprisingly) that overall returning production clearly correlates with improvement. The good news is that IU is 13th nationally in returning production (offense and defense combined). With respect to offense only, we have 63% returning, which is only about middle of the pack. Still, the data project an improvement in offensive production of just under a point per game. This is due in part to the fact that returning passing/receiving production correlates more closely with a strong offense than returning run production. Or, as the author of the piece states, "The conclusion remains: Continuity in the passing game matters a hell of a lot, and continuity in the run game doesn't have as strong an impact."

The article continues, "On defense, where returning production appears to matter more in general, the correlations are both stronger and more diverse." The excellent news here is that IU is ranked 1st nationally in returning defensive production, which projects to 5.4 fewer points yielded per game.

After checking out the rankings, be sure to scroll down to the end of the piece where the author talks about the Big Ten. Despite a strong recruiting class, Michigan will likely take a step back this season, and MSU will likely continue to struggle. And with respect to the rest of the Big Ten East, only Penn State is close to us in returning production.

In sum, there's a lot to look forward to in 2017.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...eturning-starters-experience-oregon-tcu-texas

 

[10yrProject]

Usually I'm on the other side of this discussion, whereas I'm usually the cheerleader type, but in this case I'm leaning towards the "tough love" approach.

In 2017 I'm saying "show me something". If you're as good as all the pundits seem to be saying then Prove It.

Just playing good teams close shouldn't be enough this year.

Not making plays when they need to be made shouldn't be acceptable any more.

If you drop a catchable ball, put the ball on the ground, whiff on a block, or go brain dead on a play Id like to see your butt on the bench and take a look at what the next guy can do.

We will get to see how serious these guys really are about winning early on.

Just having a lot of returning starters from a team that finished 6-7 and lost nearly every big game they were in doesn't impress me much anymore...

 

[Bobsnotbucks]

The below link is a subset of the data contained in the link that RBB89 provided at the beginning of this thread. It demonstrates (not surprisingly) that overall returning production clearly correlates with improvement. The good news is that IU is 13th nationally in returning production (offense and defense combined). With respect to offense only, we have 63% returning, which is only about middle of the pack. Still, the data project an improvement in offensive production of just under a point per game. This is due in part to the fact that returning passing/receiving production correlates more closely with a strong offense than returning run production. Or, as the author of the piece states, "The conclusion remains: Continuity in the passing game matters a hell of a lot, and continuity in the run game doesn't have as strong an impact."

The article continues, "On defense, where returning production appears to matter more in general, the correlations are both stronger and more diverse." The excellent news here is that IU is ranked 1st nationally in returning defensive production, which projects to 5.4 fewer points yielded per game.

After checking out the rankings, be sure to scroll down to the end of the piece where the author talks about the Big Ten. Despite a strong recruiting class, Michigan will likely take a step back this season, and MSU will likely continue to struggle. And with respect to the rest of the Big Ten East, only Penn State is close to us in returning production.

In sum, there's a lot to look forward to in 2017.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...eturning-starters-experience-oregon-tcu-texas

Is there any data that measures returning production with either head coaching, coordinator or other coach changes?

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

Is there any data that measures returning production with either head coaching, coordinator or other coach changes?

What in general makes you think that these coaches can't get the job done? Yes it will be different, but the same could be said if we brought in Belichick, Kyle Shanahan and whatever others. It's a wait and see, same as every other year. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that we can get 7 wins next year with who we have coaching and playing.

 

[Bowlmania]

Is there any data that measures returning production with either head coaching, coordinator or other coach changes?

Why don't you look into that, Bob's snot, and fill us in on the measurement data.

 

[Bobsnotbucks]

What in general makes you think that these coaches can't get the job done? Yes it will be different, but the same could be said if we brought in Belichick, Kyle Shanahan and whatever others. It's a wait and see, same as every other year. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that we can get 7 wins next year with who we have coaching and playing.

It's not that I think these coaches can't get it done, it's that coaching changes nearly always result in near term steps back before any forward momentum is established. IU saw that with Corso, Wyche, Mallory, Cam, DiNardo, Hep, Lynch (after the interim year), and Wilson. Almost every program sees that. Given that, plus the player turnover on offense, it would seem as though that side of the ball will be severely challenged in 2017.

 

[Bobsnotbucks]

Why don't you look into that, Bob's snot, and fill us in on the measurement data.

Happy to see if that's available, though I suspect it isn't. Lol

 

[ESalum86]

It's not that I think these coaches can't get it done, it's that coaching changes nearly always result in near term steps back before any forward momentum is established. IU saw that with Corso, Wyche, Mallory, Cam, DiNardo, Hep, Lynch (after the interim year), and Wilson. Almost every program sees that. Given that, plus the player turnover on offense, it would seem as though that side of the ball will be severely challenged in 2017.

There is more returning talent, more depth and more coaching staff continuity now than during any of the other IU coaching changes you site.