We're currently 43rd in the NET ranking. Most prediction sites, have us in the NCAA, as roughly a 10 seed. So I'll use 45 as a sign we'll likely get an at large. Obviously that isn't in any way scientific, may not be accurate even...but as of now...it seems that it means the guys that get paid to crunch all the numbers, think it means it'll get us in.
Tonights game is a Quad 1 game, against 18th rated Ohio State. In all likelihood, we'll lose tonight. I think a loss probably only drops us a couple spots initially. So most likely, after the dust settles from the all the games tonight, we'll be roughly 45 in the NET rankings. If we somehow managed a win...that'd be enormous. And it'll push us up into the 30's.
Next game home versus Maryland (Current NET 95) This is a dangerous game for or NCAA resume. It's likely going to be a Quad 3 game. Quad 3 games are usually against mid major teams. We're 3-0 in Quad 3 games. They should be relatively easy. But Maryland very nearly beat Purdue at Purdue, same at Iowa. They have a couple guards that can get hot. They have athletic bigs. We obviously should beat them though. And losing to them at home, in this situation, would be a sign that Woody has lost the team. Our season is done if we lose this game for all intents and purposes. Assuming we follow up an OSU loss with a win here, however, I don't see the needle moving upwards, at all really. So we'll hover at that 45 range.
Next game at Minnesota (Current NET 101) This game will be a Quad 2, road opportunity. If we keep our NCAA hopes alive with a win over Maryland. This game is another enormous opportunity. Minnesota has been really bad lately. A dialed in Hoosiers team should win. But, its on the road. The Barn isn't the easiest place to play. They do have capable athletes. A loss here doesn't end our NCAA hopes. We'd probably drop into the high 40's, maybe 50 is. A win probably bumps us up into the lower 40s, maybe 40 depending what other teams we've already played do.
Next game home versus Rutgers (Current NET 80) Their NET will likely rise up a bit. But this has the potential to be the most difficult Quad 3 game...ever played. I can't believe their NET is still as high as it is after doing what theyve done recently. It'll either be a low Quad 2, or a Quad 3 game. And it'll be a VERY, VERY difficult game for us to win. The crappy part, is a win in this game won't really boost our NET rating much. I'd say if this ends up being our 3rd straight win, we might crack 40, barely. If we lose this game, after winning the previous two, it'll probably drop us below 45. If this is our 2nd loss or more out of the next 4...it puts us in the unenviable position that the final game at Purdue is a must win.
Last game at Purdue (Current NET 9) Purdue will likely still be top 10 NET at this point. Obviously a win is enormous. Assuming we had won at least 2 games prior to this game a win would punch our ticket to the dance. But realistically, we're not gonna win this game. The good news is it might even raise our NET ranking, even with a loss. A loss here isn't likely going to hurt us, at all. Outside the real possibility that Purdue stomps us by 30+. But assuming a loss here, I think we'll have had to win 3 of the previous 4, to have put ourselves in a position for an at large.
I think the first 4 games are all varying degrees of realistically winnable. Purdue being beyond a long shot. 3 out of 4 in those first 4, I think we get a bid. 2 out of 4, I don't think we get a bid.
