Most likely threat of human extinction

[anon_6hv78pr714xta]

Note: You might not think any of these options are likely. This is a poll about which you believe is most likely among the options. If you select Other, please tell us what you think is the most likely that is not covered here.

 

[anon_6hv78pr714xta]

This guy thinks that we should be very, very afraid of AI becoming smarter than us, that we do not have anywhere near the protections in place to deal with it, and that once it happens, everyone on Earth will die:

Eliezer Yudkowsky on the Dangers of AI - Econlib

Eliezer Yudkowsky insists that once artificial intelligence becomes smarter than people, everyone on earth will die. Listen as Yudkokwsky speaks with EconTalk’s Russ Roberts on why we should be very, very afraid and why we’re not prepared or able to manage the terrifying risks of AI.

www.econtalk.org

 

[Univee2]

This guy thinks that we should be very, very afraid of AI becoming smarter than us, that we do not have anywhere near the protections in place to deal with it, and that once it happens, everyone on Earth will die:

Eliezer Yudkowsky on the Dangers of AI - Econlib

Eliezer Yudkowsky insists that once artificial intelligence becomes smarter than people, everyone on earth will die. Listen as Yudkokwsky speaks with EconTalk’s Russ Roberts on why we should be very, very afraid and why we’re not prepared or able to manage the terrifying risks of AI.

www.econtalk.org

Skynet.

Kill all the robots.

 

[anon_6hv78pr714xta]

Skynet.

Kill all the robots.

I wonder if maybe people aren’t taking the threat as seriously as it it should be because it hit the public consciousness via sci fi?

 

[SqueakyClean]

I voted other: Alien attack

Bear in mind, the OP said "Extinction".

Nuclear war would probably take out 80-90%
AI, we are not to the point of making robots yet that could turn on us, so at best they could pull off nuclear war, which goes back to 80-90%.
Virus is possible, but Covid kinda proved that we can overcome these. Worst case, I'm thinking about 50%.
Asteroid is not likely as we are already tracking most of the planet-killers and most have their paths projected for the next 100 years already. Of the few that could potentially be a threat, I don't think we are that far away from technology capable of fixing the problem. (Bear in mind, outside of a complete "Holy crap, it's coming right for us" kind of asteroid that comes from outside our solar system, we are going to have years to prepare for it).
Climate change, while a problem, could potentially kill millions, but we will adjust. 15% at most.

Nope, of all of those options, I don't see any as being able to completely take us out. Now, if aliens with superior technology and a distinct lack of morals come along, we could be toast. In the grand scheme of things, an alien race that is a mere 1000 years ahead of us (which, relative to the age of the galaxy, is a millisecond) in technology could probably wipe the floor with us.

Say they want all our water. 20 ships park in medium Earth orbit (2000 miles-ish) and glass the planet, boiling the water into the atmosphere and then they sit there collecting it. Our nukes currently can only get up to about 750 miles above ground, and even if we modified them, given a 1000 years of technology advance in targeting systems and they could probably pick off our ballistic missles before they leave the upper atmosphere. If the heat / glassing alone doesn't kill us, taking all the water would.

Maybe at the end of 100 years we might have advanced weapons enough to put up an orbital defense, but I think we are still a little too busy trying to figure out how to kill each other instead of a sudden appearance of a hostile alien race.

We are REALLY good at killing things. It's part of the reason that we are the dominant species on this planet. In order for AI to take us out, you are going to need at least 1 fully operational killing-level-sized robot for every 4 humans to come close to a chance at human extinction. That would be 2 billion robots. I just don't see that in 100 years.

 

[Univee2]

I wonder if maybe people aren’t taking the threat as seriously as it it should be because it hit the public consciousness via sci fi?

May well be the case. I don’t pretend to understand how you can program intelligence and the capability to learn something that’s not been programmed. I’ve always thought everything boiled down to: good data in, good data out. But if AI can potentially determine what is good for the existence of AI, and that includes the elimination of human life, how do you stop/prevent it?

The call for a moratorium is “meh.” Think China would abide?

All great progress has come with risks. I have to think great minds will work through this. But it only takes one . . . .

Our greatest risk, though maybe not leading to extinction, is from an EMP attack. This would punt us back to the dark ages.

 

[mcmurtry66]

May well be the case. I don’t pretend to understand how you can program intelligence and the capability to learn something that’s not been programmed. I’ve always thought everything boiled down to: good data in, good data out. But if AI can potentially determine what is good for the existence of AI, and that includes the elimination of human life, how do you stop/prevent it?

The call for a moratorium is “meh.” Think China would abide?

All great progress has come with risks. I have to think great minds will work through this. But it only takes one . . . .

Our greatest risk, though maybe not leading to extinction, is from an EMP attack. This would punt us back to the dark ages.

Can’t you just unplug whatever

 

[Univee2]

Can’t you just unplug whatever

* sigh *

What about their little nuclear-powered hearts?

 

[SqueakyClean]

But if AI can potentially determine what is good for the existence of AI, and that includes the elimination of human life, how do you stop/prevent it?

Guns.

Lots and lots of guns.

🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫🔫💣💣💣💣💣💣💣💣💣💣💣💣💣💣💣💣🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨

 

[Spartans9312]

Food…we are getting really efficient at raising more food on smaller parcels. Is there a ceiling in that game? Urban and suburban sprawl continues to eliminate agricultural land.

 

[Univee2]

I voted other: Alien attack

Bear in mind, the OP said "Extinction".

Nuclear war would probably take out 80-90%
AI, we are not to the point of making robots yet that could turn on us, so at best they could pull off nuclear war, which goes back to 80-90%.
Virus is possible, but Covid kinda proved that we can overcome these. Worst case, I'm thinking about 50%.
Asteroid is not likely as we are already tracking most of the planet-killers and most have their paths projected for the next 100 years already. Of the few that could potentially be a threat, I don't think we are that far away from technology capable of fixing the problem. (Bear in mind, outside of a complete "Holy crap, it's coming right for us" kind of asteroid that comes from outside our solar system, we are going to have years to prepare for it).
Climate change, while a problem, could potentially kill millions, but we will adjust. 15% at most.

Nope, of all of those options, I don't see any as being able to completely take us out. Now, if aliens with superior technology and a distinct lack of morals come along, we could be toast. In the grand scheme of things, an alien race that is a mere 1000 years ahead of us (which, relative to the age of the galaxy, is a millisecond) in technology could probably wipe the floor with us.

Say they want all our water. 20 ships park in medium Earth orbit (2000 miles-ish) and glass the planet, boiling the water into the atmosphere and then they sit there collecting it. Our nukes currently can only get up to about 750 miles above ground, and even if we modified them, given a 1000 years of technology advance in targeting systems and they could probably pick off our ballistic missles before they leave the upper atmosphere. If the heat / glassing alone doesn't kill us, taking all the water would.

Maybe at the end of 100 years we might have advanced weapons enough to put up an orbital defense, but I think we are still a little too busy trying to figure out how to kill each other instead of a sudden appearance of a hostile alien race.

We are REALLY good at killing things. It's part of the reason that we are the dominant species on this planet. In order for AI to take us out, you are going to need at least 1 fully operational killing-level-sized robot for every 4 humans to come close to a chance at human extinction. That would be 2 billion robots. I just don't see that in 100 years.

The absolute immensity of the universe pretty much guarantees we’ll never interact with or even be aware of any alien civilization.

 

[SqueakyClean]

The absolute immensity of the universe pretty much guarantees we’ll never interact with or even be aware of any alien civilization.

Meh. Not so sure about that.
We're pretty much blaring out E/M signals in all directions.
We are literally sending out advertisements to come visit us.
We've detected radio signals from 9 billion light years away (from a different galaxy)

Someone will find us eventually. May not be within 100 years, but it will happen eventually.....


(barring we don't take ourselves out first)

 

[twenty02]

Food…we are getting really efficient at raising more food on smaller parcels. Is there a ceiling in that game? Urban and suburban sprawl continues to eliminate agricultural land.

Not worried about that.... we can eat bugs.

What the Heck is Cricket Flour?

Jiminy Cricket! Is there such as thing as protein-rich cricket flour, made from bugs? The answer may surprise you and convince you to try it.

www.farmersalmanac.com

 

[VanPastorMan]

Not worried about that.... we can eat bugs.

What the Heck is Cricket Flour?

Jiminy Cricket! Is there such as thing as protein-rich cricket flour, made from bugs? The answer may surprise you and convince you to try it.

www.farmersalmanac.com

And we are told we will like it. One thing I have been wondering is if we all start to eat bugs then we have to have bug farms. Don't bugs fart and exhale carbon dioxide? So how is it helping the environment?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Meh. Not so sure about that.
We're pretty much blaring out E/M signals in all directions.
We are literally sending out advertisements to come visit us.
We've detected radio signals from 9 billion light years away (from a different galaxy)

Someone will find us eventually. May not be within 100 years, but it will happen eventually.....


(barring we don't take ourselves out first)

Getting here is the hard part. Covering just 100 light years is a monumental undertaking.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

even be aware of any alien civilization.

Ahem

 

[Univee2]

Ahem

Barsoom doesn’t count.

 

[outside shooter]

Don't bugs fart and exhale carbon dioxide? So how is it helping the environment?

Like humans, insects indeed require oxygen and produce carbon dioxide (CO2) as a waste product through exhalation. I am not knowledgeable in the area of insect farting behavior.

Scientific studies have shown, though, that edible insects such as beetles (mealworm), locusts and crickets emit about 1% of the greenhouse emissions, on a kilogram-to-kilogram basis, as beef cattle or hogs raised for pork consumption.

Mammals are quite a bit less efficiant in terms of respiration. The worst, in terms of producing copious amounts of hot air, appear to be ministers.

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions: Eat insects instead of meat | ClimatePositions

2016 The burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) is the major driving force for global warming¹. However, livestock rearing is responsible for around 18% of the anthropological greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalent) and various edible insects are therefore excellent alternatives to meat...

climatepositions.com

 

[SqueakyClean]

Getting here is the hard part. Covering just 100 light years is a monumental undertaking.

Once you get past the relativity thing, it may not be that bad.

I mean, think about it, we just figured out how to fly a little over a hundred years ago. An Alien civilization could literally be a million years ahead of us technology-wise. I suspect we'll have an answer for relativity in the next 1000 years or so.

I think it's far more likely that an advanced alien civilization has already detected us, took a closer look and said "Bleep that, we're staying as far away from those idiots as possible."

 

[VanPastorMan]

Like humans, insects indeed require oxygen and produce carbon dioxide (CO2) as a waste product through exhalation. I am not knowledgeable in the area of insect farting behavior.

Scientific studies have shown, though, that edible insects such as beetles (mealworm), locusts and crickets emit about 1% of the greenhouse emissions, on a kilogram-to-kilogram basis, as beef cattle or hogs raised for pork consumption.

Mammals are quite a bit less efficiant in terms of respiration. The worst, in terms of producing copious amounts of hot air, appear to be ministers.

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions: Eat insects instead of meat | ClimatePositions

2016 The burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) is the major driving force for global warming¹. However, livestock rearing is responsible for around 18% of the anthropological greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalent) and various edible insects are therefore excellent alternatives to meat...

climatepositions.com

You said they emit 1% but wouldn't that number change if we have to ramp up insect production for food? I hear ya considering the hot air of ministers. I remember when the pastors all met in Atlanta around 96 for a Promise Keepers event it was said the humidity level went up 40% in the city. lol

 

[outside shooter]

You said they emit 1% but wouldn't that number change if we have to ramp up insect production for food?

The comparison was on a kilogram per kilogram basis.

If you scaled up insect production I don't see any reason why the emissions, per kilo, would go up at all. Unless you were shipping the insect products very long distances.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Once you get past the relativity thing, it may not be that bad.

I mean, think about it, we just figured out how to fly a little over a hundred years ago. An Alien civilization could literally be a million years ahead of us technology-wise. I suspect we'll have an answer for relativity in the next 1000 years or so.

I think it's far more likely that an advanced alien civilization has already detected us, took a closer look and said "Bleep that, we're staying as far away from those idiots as possible."

There is a theory that civilizations always wipe themselves out at a certain point. Maybe that will protect us until we do.

A version of that, once Star Trek type holodecks exist, civilizations stop worrying about anything else.

But if all they can do is .99 speed of light, it is a mighty long trip here. Now they might have much longer lifespans, but that is another factor. Then add in the amount of energy it would take to get here and get back. Then they have to worry about what sort of defenses we would have in 100 years.

This just seems highly unlikely. Not impossible. But it seems more likely to me a large object is sitting out past Pluto starting an inbound journey and we've never seen it before.

 

[Spartans9312]

Not worried about that.... we can eat bugs.

What the Heck is Cricket Flour?

Jiminy Cricket! Is there such as thing as protein-rich cricket flour, made from bugs? The answer may surprise you and convince you to try it.

www.farmersalmanac.com

I’m out

 

[Ohio Guy]

Virus is possible, but Covid kinda proved that we can overcome these. Worst case, I'm thinking about 50%.

I feel like we're worse off the fend off a serious global pandemic because of COVID. When/if that happens - and it's a seriously deadly virus or strain of something - how many people are needlessly going to die because they don't trust the science or feel like the government is working to undermine freedoms?

My guess is A LOT more people will die because of that type of skepticism than we would have thought pre-COVID.

 

[gmhowes]

I think your position as a pastor, your Bible if read, there is no other, some of mankind will choose grace

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

I choose other. Simply because I don't see the hypothetical happening.
Climate change- Meh. Gore trying to stay relivent (which he never was)
Nuclear war... Too many checks in place for full blown extinction. (but may have a blast or two).
Virus... Not if Buyden polling gets better... If not... we will all need a higher power to hold some people in check.
AI - that one is scarry. It very well may kill off all of the cities. But as far as extinction, a country boy WILL survive. Actually this one may be a net positive.

 

[UncleMark]

Not worried about that.... we can eat bugs.

What the Heck is Cricket Flour?

Jiminy Cricket! Is there such as thing as protein-rich cricket flour, made from bugs? The answer may surprise you and convince you to try it.

www.farmersalmanac.com

Or Soylent Green.

 

[SqueakyClean]

There is a theory that civilizations always wipe themselves out at a certain point. Maybe that will protect us until we do.

A version of that, once Star Trek type holodecks exist, civilizations stop worrying about anything else.

But if all they can do is .99 speed of light, it is a mighty long trip here. Now they might have much longer lifespans, but that is another factor. Then add in the amount of energy it would take to get here and get back. Then they have to worry about what sort of defenses we would have in 100 years.

This just seems highly unlikely. Not impossible. But it seems more likely to me a large object is sitting out past Pluto starting an inbound journey and we've never seen it before.

Again, you're getting stuck on relativity.

The shortest distance between two points is not a straight line. It's zero. You just need to figure out how to fold the space between those two points and create the gateway in between. Sure, at this point it's science fiction to us, but that doesn't mean someone with a million years to figure it out hasn't done so already.

As for wiping ourselves out, that is absolutely possible, but we are a pretty hardy / adaptable species. While our current arsenal of nukes could do a pretty good job, all it takes is a group of about 500 people down in Puerto Williams, Chile who are so out-of-the-way that the blasts wouldn't get them and the species would be repopulated in 10,000 years or so.

The same thing applies to the asteroid hit. Sure, the future of the human species would all be descendants of citizens of Denver, Colorado (shudder) or maybe Mongolians, but it would have to be almost the size of the moon (something that would literally crack the earth in half) to cause enough damage to kill off everything. It's not like we haven't had mass extinction events before on this planet. The larger species tend to have more trouble, and we would absolutely lose 99.9% of the population, but that still leaves 8 million people.

In order to truly wipe us out, you need something that has the intention of wiping us out.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Again, you're getting stuck on relativity.

The shortest distance between two points is not a straight line. It's zero. You just need to figure out how to fold the space between those two points and create the gateway in between. Sure, at this point it's science fiction to us, but that doesn't mean someone with a million years to figure it out hasn't done so already.

As for wiping ourselves out, that is absolutely possible, but we are a pretty hardy / adaptable species. While our current arsenal of nukes could do a pretty good job, all it takes is a group of about 500 people down in Puerto Williams, Chile who are so out-of-the-way that the blasts wouldn't get them and the species would be repopulated in 10,000 years or so.

The same thing applies to the asteroid hit. Sure, the future of the human species would all be descendants of citizens of Denver, Colorado (shudder) or maybe Mongolians, but it would have to be almost the size of the moon (something that would literally crack the earth in half) to cause enough damage to kill off everything. It's not like we haven't had mass extinction events before on this planet. The larger species tend to have more trouble, and we would absolutely lose 99.9% of the population, but that still leaves 8 million people.

In order to truly wipe us out, you need something that has the intention of wiping us out.

At current, it seems the universe more fits the flat model.

What shape is the universe?

As far as cosmologists can tell, space is almost perfectly flat. But what does this mean?

astronomy.com

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-resources/curvature-of-spacece/

So the idea that one can burrow through the balloon instead of going around the balloon's exterior seems not to fit.

 

[SqueakyClean]

At current, it seems the universe more fits the flat model.

What shape is the universe?

As far as cosmologists can tell, space is almost perfectly flat. But what does this mean?

astronomy.com

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-resources/curvature-of-spacece/

So the idea that one can burrow through the balloon instead of going around the balloon's exterior seems not to fit.

I never pictured you to be a flat-universer.

 

[SqueakyClean]

There are various theories. Some postulate that creating a wormhole is actually traveling through a separate universe. Wormholes (from my EXTREMELY limited particle physics knowledge) aren't finding holes between curved space, it's more of forcing the space to curve to what you want.
As for the universe being flat, that is based on the assumption that we are even perceiving it correctly. I believe I read that Heisenburg's uncertainly equation is solvable if you apply it to 16 dimensional space (or something like that). As much as we have progressed in a few million years, we are barely scratching the surface when it comes to advanced particle physics theory.

 

[anon_6hv78pr714xta]

I voted other: Alien attack

Bear in mind, the OP said "Extinction".

Nuclear war would probably take out 80-90%
AI, we are not to the point of making robots yet that could turn on us, so at best they could pull off nuclear war, which goes back to 80-90%.
Virus is possible, but Covid kinda proved that we can overcome these. Worst case, I'm thinking about 50%.
Asteroid is not likely as we are already tracking most of the planet-killers and most have their paths projected for the next 100 years already. Of the few that could potentially be a threat, I don't think we are that far away from technology capable of fixing the problem. (Bear in mind, outside of a complete "Holy crap, it's coming right for us" kind of asteroid that comes from outside our solar system, we are going to have years to prepare for it).
Climate change, while a problem, could potentially kill millions, but we will adjust. 15% at most.

Nope, of all of those options, I don't see any as being able to completely take us out. Now, if aliens with superior technology and a distinct lack of morals come along, we could be toast. In the grand scheme of things, an alien race that is a mere 1000 years ahead of us (which, relative to the age of the galaxy, is a millisecond) in technology could probably wipe the floor with us.

Say they want all our water. 20 ships park in medium Earth orbit (2000 miles-ish) and glass the planet, boiling the water into the atmosphere and then they sit there collecting it. Our nukes currently can only get up to about 750 miles above ground, and even if we modified them, given a 1000 years of technology advance in targeting systems and they could probably pick off our ballistic missles before they leave the upper atmosphere. If the heat / glassing alone doesn't kill us, taking all the water would.

Maybe at the end of 100 years we might have advanced weapons enough to put up an orbital defense, but I think we are still a little too busy trying to figure out how to kill each other instead of a sudden appearance of a hostile alien race.

We are REALLY good at killing things. It's part of the reason that we are the dominant species on this planet. In order for AI to take us out, you are going to need at least 1 fully operational killing-level-sized robot for every 4 humans to come close to a chance at human extinction. That would be 2 billion robots. I just don't see that in 100 years.

AI doesn't need robots to kill us. The worry is that it will be so much smarter than us the comparison will be between us and ants.

 

[anon_6hv78pr714xta]

Can’t you just unplug whatever

If you wait until it becomes sentient, the worry is that it will outfox you.

 

[mcmurtry66]

If you wait until it becomes sentient, the worry is that it will outfox you.

If the entire grid was shutdown I would last seconds

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I don't think extinction in the next century is likely, but if it does happen it's probably because we sterilized the planet with nukes. Long-term, AI is the culprit.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

AI doesn't need robots to kill us. The worry is that it will be so much smarter than us the comparison will be between us and ants.

No, it will remove/ render ineffective, all of the parts of life that dependent humans need to live (water, food, waste removal, electricity, interwebz, safety). This will effect every person of every economic scale that are in the inner cities and a vast majority of those in the burbs.
They (you all) will PRAY that you would have learned and bought something to defend yourself with, or kill your neighbor to feed your family.
Urban people are so dependent that it will make the zombie movies look safe. that part really isn't a D vrs R thing, it's a reality. Once you become dependent, you are a slave to the giver.

 

[anon_6hv78pr714xta]

If the entire grid was shutdown I would last seconds

You can come to The Mountain. Lars and I will protect you until the AI figures out where we are.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

You can come to The Mountain. Lars and I will protect you until the AI figures out where we are.

YOu two have a mountain? I understand you, but Lars? I thought he loved concrete and hand outs? HAve I read him incorrectly? Are you two a team? sooo many questions.

 

[dbmhoosier]

I feel like we're worse off the fend off a serious global pandemic because of COVID. When/if that happens - and it's a seriously deadly virus or strain of something - how many people are needlessly going to die because they don't trust the science or feel like the government is working to undermine freedoms?

My guess is A LOT more people will die because of that type of skepticism than we would have thought pre-COVID.

And who’s fault would that be? Gee I wonder.

 

[mcmurtry66]

YOu two have a mountain? I understand you, but Lars? I thought he loved concrete and hand outs? HAve I read him incorrectly? Are you two a team? sooo many questions.

Brokeback Mountain