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Zakaria: The presidential election isn’t playing out how I thought it would

hoot1

hoot1

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My guru Fareed Zakaria paints a dim picture concerning the likelihood of Biden being elected.

He offers several points which point to a Trump victory and concludes by saying....

The one that troubles me most concerns the question of who is more competent. Biden led Trump by nine points in 2020, but Trump now leads by 16 points in 2024. That 25-point shift could be a reflection of people’s sense that the president’s age is affecting his capacity to govern. If so, there is very little that Biden can do to change that perception.
 
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hoot1 said:
My guru Fareed Zakaria paints a dim picture concerning the likelihood of Biden being elected.

He offers several points which point to a Trump victory and concludes by saying....

The one that troubles me most concerns the question of who is more competent. Biden led Trump by nine points in 2020, but Trump now leads by 16 points in 2024. That 25-point shift could be a reflection of people’s sense that the president’s age is affecting his capacity to govern. If so, there is very little that Biden can do to change that perception.
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Yeah, but the big guns are coming out. Clooney and Julia Roberts and their crew.
 
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hoot1 said:
My guru Fareed Zakaria paints a dim picture concerning the likelihood of Biden being elected.

He offers several points which point to a Trump victory and concludes by saying....

The one that troubles me most concerns the question of who is more competent. Biden led Trump by nine points in 2020, but Trump now leads by 16 points in 2024. That 25-point shift could be a reflection of people’s sense that the president’s age is affecting his capacity to govern. If so, there is very little that Biden can do to change that perception.
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Univee2 said:
Yeah, but the big guns are coming out. Clooney and Julia Roberts and their crew.
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They relate to the struggles of the common man albeit from lake como, and know Biden is the right choice. But still…
 
Univee2 said:
Yeah, but the big guns are coming out. Clooney and Julia Roberts and their crew.
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The Big Guns are indeed coming. I see Republicans becoming far too sanguine with wrt the election due to recent polling.

There is an entire bag of tricks that has not yet been dug into. If you think those who operate the levers of power in the Democratic party are just going to stroll along the path to their own destruction like lambs to the slaughter, think again Jack.

Body cam footage, abortion on the ballot, DC case, Philadelphia - bad things happen in Philadelphia, and I continue to to maintain that a swap out at the convention is still on the table.
 
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I posted a very interesting poll reflecting just that in swing states. Biden out Dem sens etc in
TheOriginalHappyGoat said:
Don't need a wave to oust an unpopular president. Biden could lose even as Dems do well overall. The only real hope Biden has is the GOP is nominating the worst possible candidate.
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hoot1 said:
My guru Fareed Zakaria paints a dim picture concerning the likelihood of Biden being elected.

He offers several points which point to a Trump victory and concludes by saying....

The one that troubles me most concerns the question of who is more competent. Biden led Trump by nine points in 2020, but Trump now leads by 16 points in 2024. That 25-point shift could be a reflection of people’s sense that the president’s age is affecting his capacity to govern. If so, there is very little that Biden can do to change that perception.
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The only thing that could change this perception is Biden hitting a homerun in the debates. If he can counter Trump's blustering and not-so-thinly veiled conspiracy theory accusations, public perception could shift.

That said, that's a tall order. What is probably more realistic is Trump shouting him down, taking subtle jabs at his age and stutter and not controlling the narrative/debate.
 
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NewGuyToTheBoard said:
The Big Guns are indeed coming. I see Republicans becoming far too sanguine with wrt the election due to recent polling.

There is an entire bag of tricks that has not yet been dug into. If you think those who operate the levers of power in the Democratic party are just going to stroll along the path to their own destruction like lambs to the slaughter, think again Jack.

Body cam footage, abortion on the ballot, DC case, Philadelphia - bad things happen in Philadelphia, and I continue to to maintain that a swap out at the convention is still on the table.
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I entirely agree with “entire bag of tricks” scenario. The evil and lies and deception that will be brought to bear by the left will be beyond the imagination of even the most creative novelists. It will be epic. And it will leave this country scarred.

Imagine Major Clipton at the end of The Bridge on the River Kwai. . . .

“Madness! Madness!”
 
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Ohio Guy said:
The only thing that could change this perception is Biden hitting a homerun in the debates. If he can counter Trump's blustering and not-so-thinly veiled conspiracy theory accusations, public perception could shift.

That said, that's a tall order. What is probably more realistic is Trump shouting him down, taking subtle jabs at his age and stutter and not controlling the narrative/debate.
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And not just a homerun. A towering blast over the bleachers. Something so amazing, even the people who don't watch CNN and MSNBC will find out about it.
 
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TheOriginalHappyGoat said:
And not just a homerun. A towering blast over the bleachers. Something so amazing, even the people who don't watch CNN and MSNBC will find out about it.
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Agree. It wouldn't take much for the far right to pick up and run with a 'see, we told you he has lost it!' moment. Anything that could even be loosely described as a senior moment would be all it takes.
 
Ohio Guy said:
The only thing that could change this perception is Biden hitting a homerun in the debates. If he can counter Trump's blustering and not-so-thinly veiled conspiracy theory accusations, public perception could shift.

That said, that's a tall order. What is probably more realistic is Trump shouting him down, taking subtle jabs at his age and stutter and not controlling the narrative/debate.
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Joe Biden in a debate you say? Are we referencing the same Joe Biden? The President?
 
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According to Baris, it's actually Trump +6 in Michigan in this poll among registered voters. They then just rigged it from registered to likely which he says is complete BS to give Biden a win in one swing state. If Trump voters turn out it's ballgame.

 
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dbmhoosier said:
According to Baris, it's actually Trump +6 in Michigan in this poll among registered voters. They then just rigged it from registered to likely which he says is complete BS to give Biden a win in one swing state. If Trump voters turn out it's ballgame.

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If relying on turnout it’s a Biden slam dunk again. Trump can’t be this stupid again
 
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mcmurtry66 said:
If relying on turnout it’s a Biden slam dunk again. Trump can’t be this stupid again.
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What in the hell does that mean? Trump needs the biggest turnout possible. It's not difficult. He's the only Republican that can juice turnout like this. The old GeorgeW/McCain/Romney strategy of pinning all your hopes on the black people not showing up is not a winning strategy anymore. They're easily going to harvest 90M votes for Biden. We already know this.
 
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dbmhoosier said:
What in the hell does that mean? Trump needs the biggest turnout possible. It's not difficult. He's the only Republican that can juice turnout like this. The old GeorgeW/McCain/Romney strategy of pinning all your hopes on the black people not showing up is not a winning strategy anymore. They're easily going to harvest 90M votes for Biden. We already know this.
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I’ve seen the movie relying on turnout while the mail-in vote comes pouring in for Dems.
 
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Ohio Guy said:
The only thing that could change this perception is Biden hitting a homerun in the debates. If he can counter Trump's blustering and not-so-thinly veiled conspiracy theory accusations, public perception could shift.

That said, that's a tall order. What is probably more realistic is Trump shouting him down, taking subtle jabs at his age and stutter and not controlling the narrative/debate.
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Goat, sticking with the baseball analogy, don't see Biden as a home run hitter in terms of speaking or debating.

However, he might be a victim of being intentionally hit by a Trump fastball while batting.

This might muster up some sympathy. The sympathy coming mostly from voters already inclined to favor Biden's nice guy demeanor. A demeanor which also gives rise to appearing weak and feeble to many.

Having said all that, a lot can happen between now and November. I'll be staying tuned but not losing any sleep. Wake me when it is over.

Then again, these days presidential elections never seem to have a final ending. May have to storm The Capitol.
 
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NewGuyToTheBoard said:
Joe Biden in a debate you say? Are we referencing the same Joe Biden? The President?
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This is exactly why him winning a debate would be so huge. I'm not saying him running away with it would happen, but based on the few replies here just showing up would move the needle a little bit.

If by some chance the day after a debate the consensus is 'holy sh!t Trump looked stupid in a loss the Biden last night' then I takes a huge MAGA talking point off the table.

In my opinion, not debating or imploding in a debate would be detrimental to Biden. For the most part, just being competent doesn't do ton to shift things either way.
 
mcmurtry66 said:
There’s no way he could do a 90 minute debate without prepared questions answers etc. no chance
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I don't think either one of them could. I seriously doubt there will be any traditional debates. If there are any at all they will be in some alternate format where they're given prepared questions and the a set amount of time to parrot back prepared remarks. They can't let these guy wing it in an actual debate. Although if they did it would be Must See Comedy.
 
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hoot1 said:
Goat, sticking with the baseball analogy, don't see Biden as a home run hitter in terms of speaking or debating.

However, he might be a victim of being intentionally hit by a Trump fastball while batting.

This might muster up some sympathy. The sympathy coming mostly from voters already inclined to favor Biden's nice guy demeanor. A demeanor which also gives rise to appearing weak and feeble to many.

Having said all that, a lot can happen between now and November. I'll be staying tuned but not losing any sleep. Wake me when it is over.

Then again, these days presidential elections never seem to have a final ending. May have to storm The Capitol.
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I could see that happening too. Trump isn't one for knowing how to stay out of his own way and hitting Biden for a stutter or some other ad hominem attack might blow up in his face. Some of the d!cks here might might eat it up, it but generally speaking I don't think it'd play well.
 
Hank Reardon said:
I don't think either one of them could. I seriously doubt there will be any traditional debates. If there are any at all they will be in some alternate format where they're given prepared questions and the a set amount of time to parrot back prepared remarks. They can't let these guy wing it in an actual debate. Although if they did it would be Must See Comedy.
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I actually think Trump could go well past 90 minutes. I don't think it has anything to do with age. I think megalomania, narcissism and his inability to cede the final word could drive him for hours.
 
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Ohio Guy said:
I actually think Trump could go well past 90 minutes. I don't think it has anything to do with age. I think megalomania, narcissism and his inability to cede the final word could drive him for hours.
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He once held rallies in NV, OH, NC, and FL all in the same day. I bet Biden couldn't have done that 20 years ago.
 
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dbmhoosier said:
What in the hell does that mean? Trump needs the biggest turnout possible. It's not difficult. He's the only Republican that can juice turnout like this. The old GeorgeW/McCain/Romney strategy of pinning all your hopes on the black people not showing up is not a winning strategy anymore. They're easily going to harvest 90M votes for Biden. We already know this.
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You’re the last person to provide any political analysis. You have no opinions or “facts” that aren’t provided by Trump or a Trumpster Twitter Twit. NONE.
 
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