Win a game in the tournament

[T.M.P.]

Romeo, for all the grief he has gotten, had a great year for a frosh.

2 pts under average PER for a lottery pick freshman wing in a #1 or 2 role. He had a good year. Great would have been a 24+.

fwiw - Zion Williamson set a record last year for highest PER in the modern era. Above 40.

Also, no one is mentioning how often Juwan froze the ball. Ball freezers kill offensive movement, and also allow the defense time to position. Not saying he sucked or anything but he did freeze the ball too much. @TommyCracker .. this is one reason I believe the offense looked so different from Dayton.

 

[snarlcakes]

As good as Morgan was, IU was undersized due to Deron being limited and nobody else being ready to contribute. Now IU has a legit frontline rotation... which is a must particularly in the Big 10. I believe the loss of Morgan is reduced to nearly inconsequential, due to the dramatically improved rotation of bigs.

Romeo, for all the grief he has gotten, had a great year for a frosh. If he were returning, everyone would be pretty excited about next season. Nobody is going to replace what Romeo would have been as a soph, but I think the added experience for Phin, Green and Al along with the addition of Hunter, Demezi and Franklin will make for an outstanding and diverse group.

I didn't even mention Smith and Thompson, both of which should show big improvement this season.

I'm sure there will be a disappointment or two, but this roster should be able to absorb a blow or two. Last year was full of disappointments and setbacks with too much inexperience to absorb them. All forward momentum was retarded until the very end of the season.

The summer kool-aid is going down easy I think we are going to miss Morgan a lot more than you think. You need studs (all conference type of players) to be a good team. We most likely have zero (maybe TJD?). Disregard if you were just making the argument we will have a slightly better team, next year.

 

[Paterfamilias]

The summer kool-aid is going down easy I think we are going to miss a Morgan a lot more than you think. You need studs (all conference type of players) to be a good team. We most likely have zero (maybe TJD?). Disregard if you were just making the argument we will have a slightly better team, next year.

Yeah, I freely admit that I'm prone to summer hype... even if I have to conduct the hype train myself.

After taking the spring months off, I was surprised to return to talk of 9th or 10th place finishes in the Big 10. If I didn't know better, I would think a conspiracy is afoot to keep expectations down this year

 

[T.M.P.]

Yeah, I freely admit that I'm prone to summer hype... even if I have to conduct the hype train myself.

After taking the spring months off, I was surprised to return to talk of 9th or 10th place finishes in the Big 10. If I didn't know better, I would think a conspiracy is afoot to keep expectations down this year

Fan bias and recency bias.

Trust your numbers, they don't suffer from either. .

 

[snarlcakes]

Yeah, I freely admit that I'm prone to summer hype... even if I have to conduct the hype train myself.

After taking the spring months off, I was surprised to return to talk of 9th or 10th place finishes in the Big 10. If I didn't know better, I would think a conspiracy is afoot to keep expectations down this year

We might actually not be that far apart. I think we will win between 17-20 games (excluding the tourneys).

 

[Paterfamilias]

Fan bias and recency bias.

Trust your numbers, they don't suffer from either. .

My base numbers aren't always that great either. I mostly just see this as the type of roster we have waited for so long. I think fans get so caught up in roster losses that they miss the bigger issue of roster structure.

I could end up with pie on my face... or whatever, but I love having all these bigs and overall talent level

 

[T.M.P.]

My base numbers aren't always that great either. I mostly just see this as the type of roster we have waited for so long. I think fans get so caught up in roster losses that they miss the bigger issue of roster structure.

I could end up with pie on my face... or whatever, but I love having all these bigs and overall talent level

Yea, but they do give you a God's Eye view nationally and relative to the competition. A vast majority of fans assess their team in an isolated vacuum using arbitrary and ever shifting measures to gauge competence and never gauge them vs the competition. Proficiency in competition is always relative to the competition.

Plus they give you insights and show trends..

A few years ago you did a thing about guards vs bigs and how long they take to develop and it was right on. Excluding one and dones, because they are the exception, it generally takes 3 years for F/C to play 20+, vs 1 year for G/W to do the same. Half of the 4 star wings and guards play right away, and a vast majority get playing time by their senior year. Only a few of the 4 star bigs will play this year, and half will never play 20+ in four years. Which of course makes sense because it's a huge transition in interior play from HS to D1 and most aren't ready and some never will be.

If you did the experience thing per position I suspect you would find that having experienced point guards and experienced post players are relative and important to success.

 

[TommyCracker]

2 pts under average PER for a lottery pick freshman wing in a #1 or 2 role. He had a good year. Great would have been a 24+.

fwiw - Zion Williamson set a record last year for highest PER in the modern era. Above 40.

Also, no one is mentioning how often Juwan froze the ball. Ball freezers kill offensive movement, and also allow the defense time to position. Not saying he sucked or anything but he did freeze the ball too much. @TommyCracker .. this is one reason I believe the offense looked so different from Dayton.

I can't remember which thread I've commented on but rewatching the last two months of the season (I've been bored and my YouTube tv still has all the games from at Rutgers), the ball stuck a ton.

It stuck with Juwan', it stuck with Romeo, it stuck with Rob and it stuck with Green.

There is no bigger Morgan fan than me. I love him. He's a beast, but we definitely didn't fall apart when he was out to my surprise.

Everyone remembers at MSU. He also was out a big chunk of the second half vs Purdue (we got down 5 and then went up 6 with Davis if I remember correctly. That game ended with the 7'2" Haarms going over Morgan's back for a put back, game winner). He was out a huge chunk of the second half vs OSU in the BTT (everyone remembers Green going off but he was hitting the whole game. It was actually Fitzner, setting screens and moving the ball as a second post guy with Davis and popping out for two threes that opened up lanes for Langford, and we cut a 20 point lead to 2 in about 7 minutes) we ended up taking leads or coming back.

Davis passed out of the post really well. Also Smith was more active slashing for boards, putbacks, etc.

Anyway it gives me some encouragement that the offense with flow better with very little hero/isolation ball.

Again his elite 8 team moved the ball pretty nicely in the tournament (those are the only full games I can find on you tube) and he absolutely destroyed zones with their ball movement (Stanford was 50/50 man then zone, Boise zoned after makes, Syracuse was 100% zone)....but their leading scorer was Seibert at 12ppg.

That's what we're going to probably have this upcoming season. 6 dudes averaging between 8 to 14 points.

It can work and be fun to watch.

We'll see.

 

[snarlcakes]

My base numbers aren't always that great either. I mostly just see this as the type of roster we have waited for so long. I think fans get so caught up in roster losses that they miss the bigger issue of roster structure.

I could end up with pie on my face... or whatever, but I love having all these bigs and overall talent level

I think you’re off. You need a balanced roster and studs. If you get bored try to find a top 20 team (you can limit it to the Big Ten) that didn’t have at least one all conference player. I think next years team has a very low ceiling because of it. Now, TDJ could be that guy, but I always assumed he was more of a 2 or 3 year player. I also don’t want to do the research and I know you enjoy it

 

[T.M.P.]

It stuck with Juwan', it stuck with Romeo, it stuck with Rob and it stuck with Green.

Yup .... and add Smith when he caught on the perimeter. And obviously ..when off the ball when they do that, when do you cut? When do you adjust position for open looks. If you wait for them to recognize the play, the defense does also. We were so much better against zones the last two years because the ball moved . Well except that weird gimmick Miles used.. but Miller lost the team for that stretch of games.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

This team is a 15 win team at best.

Means you think they won’t make the tournament. Take my offer to bet on that, or are you a cowardly troll?

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

I will bet 20.00 you game?

$100.

 

[T.M.P.]

I think next years team has a very low ceiling because of it.

Yup, good post.

To be what we all want you need both .. a go to and the role players surrounding and supporting them. Last year IU and PU went into the season with that in mind. Both had go guys and needed role players. IU failed to develop, PU didn't. They weren't plagued by injuries though.

PU should be interesting, again. This time around it's not a question of filling out the role players, it's a question of finding a go to player. The roles are filled and they're rating high in the computer based projections.. Proctor could be that guy but GT aren't always what they seem.

IU needs both this year. *sigh* .........

 

[ndhuntington]

Just read we're supposed to finish 10th maybe I will bet 100

 

[TommyCracker]

Yup, good post.

To be what we all want you need both .. a go to and the role players surrounding and supporting them. Last year IU and PU went into the season with that in mind. Both had go guys and needed role players. IU failed to develop, PU didn't. They weren't plagued by injuries though.

PU should be interesting, again. This time around it's not a question of filling out the role players, it's a question of finding a go to player. The roles are filled and they're rating high in the computer based projections.. Proctor could be that guy but GT aren't always what they seem.

IU needs both this year. *sigh* .........

BJ Armstrong was talking about the Bulls (and the NBA in general) in that mindset is you have a stud and role players. His job as a role player was to keep the game close until the final five minutes and then Jordan was going to win the game.

I get that, but I don't like that mentality.

I liked what Stevens was doing at Butler. Yeah Heyward, Howard and Mack all got and took shots but they screened for each other, had great ball movement and it typically ended up with someone getting a decent look (Veasley, Jukes, VanZant, Nored, TJD's HS coach whoes name escapes me...Zach Hahn??),etc

Mack had bad foul trouble and cramps in the final four vs MSU and it didn't matter.

Howard had foul trouble and barely played vs Duke and they barely lost.

The following year they lost Heyward and ended up winning something like their last 15 until they lost in the ship to UConn.

They were definitely talented and they attacked offensively a little differently based on the defense...but there wasn't much isolation where the ball stuck in Heyward's hands to go 'make a basketball play'.

I think the 1989 IU is a perfect example of pretty much everything we value as Hoosier fans. As mentioned before once Jones controlled the pace (he actually slowed it down) we had nothing but soldier wrapped around Edwards (and Anderson was amazing as a frosh on the blocks). We won the Big Ten going away.

Anyway, I don't think we need a go to guy if we can get 6 to 7 compatible guys. I'm fine with Green scoring 18 then coming back with 6...if that's what the defense gives us.

I don't think college needs the NBA, let me take over down the stretch, mentality to be successful.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

I think we make the tournament......the Big Ten Tournament.
NCAAs? That will be a miracle. I'm hoping Archie succeeds but he appears to be in over his head.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

Just read we're supposed to finish 10th maybe I will bet 100

I’ll take the bet. You in?

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

I think we make the tournament......the Big Ten Tournament.
NCAAs? That will be a miracle. I'm hoping Archie succeeds but he appears to be in over his head.

$100? If that’s too much for you I’ll go lower. Winning is all that matters.

 

[snarlcakes]

Yup, good post.

To be what we all want you need both .. a go to and the role players surrounding and supporting them. Last year IU and PU went into the season with that in mind. Both had go guys and needed role players. IU failed to develop, PU didn't. They weren't plagued by injuries though.

PU should be interesting, again. This time around it's not a question of filling out the role players, it's a question of finding a go to player. The roles are filled and they're rating high in the computer based projections.. Proctor could be that guy but GT aren't always what they seem.

IU needs both this year. *sigh* .........

I agree with you on IU. I think we’re a year away from being a good team and contending for the Big Ten. I can accurately predict that any prediction I make about Purdue will be wrong. I do like the Wheeler kid a lot.

 

[minneman]

I think you’re off. You need a balanced roster and studs. If you get bored try to find a top 20 team (you can limit it to the Big Ten) that didn’t have at least one all conference player. I think next years team has a very low ceiling because of it. Now, TDJ could be that guy, but I always assumed he was more of a 2 or 3 year player. I also don’t want to do the research and I know you enjoy it

Morgan was nowhere close to an all-conference player his first two seasons. He showed some flashes of what he could be but wasn't there. Then he took a huge step forward his junior year. When looking at the team right now there isn't anyone returning that is at that level of play but there could be one or two players that step up. Davis and Green are upper-classmen who need to step up. Smith could as well but I have more doubts about his play.

So I agree that they need a stud and right now don't appear to have one but I think that can change. TJD could be that but I think he struggles a bit early.

 

[Paterfamilias]

I think you’re off. You need a balanced roster and studs. If you get bored try to find a top 20 team (you can limit it to the Big Ten) that didn’t have at least one all conference player. I think next years team has a very low ceiling because of it. Now, TDJ could be that guy, but I always assumed he was more of a 2 or 3 year player. I also don’t want to do the research and I know you enjoy it

I agree with you, but as of now I don't know who will be on 2019-20 All Big 10 teams. I know in 2011-12 people were talking in the off-season about how IU would take a step forward with Zeller and go to the NIT. Some said the ceiling was low because Zeller would be surrounded by MAC level talent. In the end Zeller, Watford, Oladipo and Hulls all received at least Honorable Mention All-Conference recognition. I had IU #22 that preseason and as I said people were saying the same things that they are now.

IU has several players who could have all-conference type seasons, but they would be considered longshots right now. I just happen to think they are not as long odds as others might.

I also agree about TJD. Honestly, I never thought that much of him at all early on, but he really keeps improving every time I see him. I don't even have him penciled in as a starter next year. Not that I know anything, just pointing out that I'm not just getting carried away with TJD expectations.

 

[Paterfamilias]

I agree with you on IU. I think we’re a year away from being a good team and contending for the Big Ten. I can accurately predict that any prediction I make about Purdue will be wrong. I do like the Wheeler kid a lot.

I also agree with your "year away" approach to expectations. IU's roster score for 2020-21 (assuming everyone sticks around) would usually put them at between #8-#12 nationally.

Typically though, teams just don't become national contenders overnight. I think they would need to make serious strides toward that elite ranking this season, by at least crashing the Top 25 by seasons end.

Of course, they may not achieve national contention by 20-21, which is when I would join the hater club full force.

 

[T.M.P.]

I agree with you on IU. I think we’re a year away from being a good team and contending for the Big Ten. I can accurately predict that any prediction I make about Purdue will be wrong. I do like the Wheeler kid a lot.

We'll have a bad season .. unless players improve.. Which isn't against the rules, and happens quite frequently and isn't very easy to predict or project. If the production of the players stays as low as they are, (they shouldn't) we'll be pretty bad.

For Purdue to have had the season they had last year with only Carsen Edwards being a lock and everyone else being a question mark they had to have a fair bit of improvement from 3 to 4 players. The odds were against that, but It happened. They had great development from 6 players and Williams becoming ready to play later in the season improved them drastically.

Also if you understand the method TORVIK is using, we can only go up.

Our ranking is based on a set of very low efficiency and production from RP, JS, and AD, all of whom played over 24 minutes and thus are still predicted to this year. I suspect two of them will drop in the rotation. Their eff and PER ratings sucked so bad that they almost literally can't get any worse. So the only direction we will move on that projection is up. Unless of course no one improves or everyone is injured.

Purdue has exceptional numbers from their post players and consistent numbers from their role players. That's why they rate so highly. BUT those numbers were gained in a system where the post players were not the primary focus of the defense. Will they be as effective when they are? No one knows ....

They also need a go to and a real point guard, those are not generally easy to find.

 

[snarlcakes]

We'll have a bad season .. unless players improve.. Which isn't against the rules, and happens quite frequently and isn't very easy to predict or project. If the production of the players stays as low as they are, (they shouldn't) we'll be pretty bad.

For Purdue to have had the season they had last year with only Carsen Edwards being a lock and everyone else being a question mark they had to have a fair bit of improvement from 3 to 4 players. The odds were against that, but It happened. They had great development from 6 players and Williams becoming ready to play later in the season improved them drastically.

Also if you understand the method TORVIK is using, we can only go up.

Our ranking is based on a set of very low efficiency and production from RP, JS, and AD, all of whom played over 24 minutes and thus are still predicted to this year. I suspect two of them will drop in the rotation. Their eff and PER ratings sucked so bad that they almost literally can't get any worse. So the only direction we will move on that projection is up. Unless of course no one improves or everyone is injured.

Purdue has exceptional numbers from their post players and consistent numbers from their role players. That's why they rate so highly. BUT those numbers were gained in a system where the post players were not the primary focus of the defense. Will they be as effective when they are? No one knows ....

They also need a go to and a real point guard, those are not generally easy to find.

Sorry, I didn't clarify what good means to me. A top 20ish team is what I meant. I agree with most of what you said. My take away on Purdue is their overvalued on Torvik. They will miss Edwards a lot more than what it is predicting. However, they shouldn't drop off that much because of their role/post players, which makes sense.

 

[snarlcakes]

I agree with you, but as of now I don't know who will be on 2019-20 All Big 10 teams. I know in 2011-12 people were talking in the off-season about how IU would take a step forward with Zeller and go to the NIT. Some said the ceiling was low because Zeller would be surrounded by MAC level talent. In the end Zeller, Watford, Oladipo and Hulls all received at least Honorable Mention All-Conference recognition. I had IU #22 that preseason and as I said people were saying the same things that they are now.

IU has several players who could have all-conference type seasons, but they would be considered longshots right now. I just happen to think they are not as long odds as others might.

I also agree about TJD. Honestly, I never thought that much of him at all early on, but he really keeps improving every time I see him. I don't even have him penciled in as a starter next year. Not that I know anything, just pointing out that I'm not just getting carried away with TJD expectations.

I was a lot higher on the 2011-12 than most people then. Watford and Hulls had pretty good sophomore seasons. Also, what is the probability that we have another Oladipo on the roster? South of 1%? Who do you have in mind for all-conference players besides TJD?

 

[Cavanagh.6]

I was a lot higher on the 2011-12 than most people then. Watford and Hulls had pretty good sophomore seasons. Also, what is the probability that we have another Oladipo on the roster? South of 1%? Who do you have in mind for all-conference players besides TJD?

Odds on making all-conference would be:
Green +125
Deron +175
Smith +225
Rob+275
TJD+350
Durham+500

 

[IndyResident16]

Odds on making all-conference would be:
Green +125
Deron +175
Smith +225
Rob+275
TJD+350
Durham+500

You're either not very good at bookmaking or you must agree that IU is going to have an exceptional year with those odds. There's 200 players in the B10. I think Green is going to be great this year but almost even odds to make all-conference?

 

[snarlcakes]

Odds on making all-conference would be:
Green +125
Deron +175
Smith +225
Rob+275
TJD+350
Durham+500

Stay away from Green, Davis, and Smith. They are robbing you blind.

 

[ndhuntington]

I'm all in

 

[Cavanagh.6]

You're either not very good at bookmaking or you must agree that IU is going to have an exceptional year with those odds. There's 200 players in the B10. I think Green is going to be great this year but almost even odds to make all-conference?

Green is going to be a senior and lead us in scoring by all accounts. We sucked the past three years and had at least one all conference player every year right?

I would put it at -130 we have an all conference player and +210 we have 2 or more.

@IndyResident16 first second or third team. I’m pretty confident Devonte will get 3rd team

 

[IndyResident16]

Green is going to be a senior and lead us in scoring by all accounts. We sucked the past three years and had at least one all conference player every year right?

I would put it at -130 we have an all conference player and +210 we have 2 or more.

Like first, second team and third team only or does the 30 people they add as honorable mention count as well.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

I'm all in

Are you taking my bet? Can’t tell because you didn’t reply to anyone.

 

[fpeaugh]

Like first, second team and third team only or does the 30 people they add as honorable mention count as well.

There are 10 on honorable mention kid. So 25 total. Get a clue.

 

[IndyResident16]

There are 10 on honorable mention kid. So 25 total. Get a clue.

You start first???

 

[fpeaugh]

You start first???

I have to spend all my posts educating you.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

Once again, we have people proclaiming IU won't possibly make the NCAA tournament not accepting my bet that they will. They will not put their money where their mouth is.

We have serious cowards among us.

 

[TR32]

I was a lot higher on the 2011-12 than most people then. Watford and Hulls had pretty good sophomore seasons. Also, what is the probability that we have another Oladipo on the roster? South of 1%? Who do you have in mind for all-conference players besides TJD?

I think best case scenario is a 3rd teamer and an honorable mention. The latter seems more likely.

 

[MrBing]

Once again, we have people proclaiming IU won't possibly make the NCAA tournament not accepting my bet that they will. They will not put their money where their mouth is.

We have serious cowards among us.

I can't see who you're trying to bet because they're among the 10 trolls I'm ignoring. They'd risk losing their anonymity if they took the bet. My bet is that there are really only 5 or 6 people among the 10 trolls. Some are using two names. I have a good guess which ones are the same people because they post the same dumbass sh*t the same dumbass way.

 

[PranksterMary]

I can't see who you're trying to bet because they're among the 10 trolls I'm ignoring. They'd risk losing their anonymity if they took the bet. My bet is that there are really only 5 or 6 people among the 10 trolls. Some are using two names. I have a good guess which ones are the same people because they post the same dumbass sh*t the same dumbass way.

Aloha ran from his childish wager dare. There’s a reason he gets pilloried on this site, just as there’s a reason that you’re afraid to engage with posters who have a different view than your own. Rather than continuing to call attention to your ignorance, why not post something of value or, better yet, support another team and leave this place to those of us who are IU fans and graduates?

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

I can't see who you're trying to bet because they're among the 10 trolls I'm ignoring. They'd risk losing their anonymity if they took the bet. My bet is that there are really only 5 or 6 people among the 10 trolls. Some are using two names. I have a good guess which ones are the same people because they post the same dumbass sh*t the same dumbass way.

All of them refuse to back their predictions that IU will miss the tournament this season.