Just winning Thursday and Friday, I don't think we have a prayer. Win Saturday, I think we got a 50/50 shot. Did they move the tourney this year? I forget.
We will get into the tournament if
- Thread starter cshartle123
- Start date
You are probably right that we need to win on Saturday, so that would be three wins in the BTT. It’s in Minneapolis.
That’s bare minimum with a little help. I still think they need to win it though.
MAYBE 50-50 chance if:
win vs. MSU,
win BTT game 1,
win BTT game 2, vs. Illinois or Purdue
If BTT game 2 is vs. Northwestern or Nebraska then a BTT game 3 win is sorely needed.
And we need no surprise automatic bids, say a team like FAU losing their conference tournament but snatching up a well-deserved at-large bid.
win vs. MSU,
win BTT game 1,
win BTT game 2, vs. Illinois or Purdue
If BTT game 2 is vs. Northwestern or Nebraska then a BTT game 3 win is sorely needed.
And we need no surprise automatic bids, say a team like FAU losing their conference tournament but snatching up a well-deserved at-large bid.
If we’re that close to scraping out an NCAA bid, then we’ll have a good shot at the NIT, at least.
Current NET 95...Quad 1 (3-8)...Quad 2 (5-4)...Road/Neutral (5-8)
Beat MSU...probably pushed NET to about 90, probably gets us a 6-8 seed in BTT...
Sample path, 7 seed...
Beat 10 seed PSU...NET moves to upper 80s...
Beat 2 seed Illinois...NET moves to low 80s...
Beat 3 seed NW...NET moves in to mid/upper 70s...
Lose to Purdue...NET stays in mid/upper 70s...
21-14, 10-10
Mid to upper 70's NET
7-9 ish in Quad 1 games
6-4 ish in Quad 2 games
8-9 in road/neutral games
Very, very likely this would still end up on the outside looking in. Which will be incredibly frustrating, because that would be a multi week, 2nd weekend NCAA team, level of performance. And all it would have taken was beating teams like Army, FGCU, Harvard, etc... by more respectable margins. When we had a fully healthy X and the rest of the roster.
Beat MSU...probably pushed NET to about 90, probably gets us a 6-8 seed in BTT...
Sample path, 7 seed...
Beat 10 seed PSU...NET moves to upper 80s...
Beat 2 seed Illinois...NET moves to low 80s...
Beat 3 seed NW...NET moves in to mid/upper 70s...
Lose to Purdue...NET stays in mid/upper 70s...
21-14, 10-10
Mid to upper 70's NET
7-9 ish in Quad 1 games
6-4 ish in Quad 2 games
8-9 in road/neutral games
Very, very likely this would still end up on the outside looking in. Which will be incredibly frustrating, because that would be a multi week, 2nd weekend NCAA team, level of performance. And all it would have taken was beating teams like Army, FGCU, Harvard, etc... by more respectable margins. When we had a fully healthy X and the rest of the roster.
Zoom out for a second. This is depressing as hell.
To act like barely making the tournament will be some sort of positive for the program. There is absolutely no benefit. Zero
To act like barely making the tournament will be some sort of positive for the program. There is absolutely no benefit. Zero
If you are expecting to be one of the best programs in the country, and your “goal” is to simply make the tournament, maybe you should go be a Nebraska or Northwestern fan.
This program ha the resources to be able to be a contender for a national title. And our fans are out here crossing our fingers on a miracle to get in the tournament.
Its embarassing.
Some people say our fans are unrealistic, but in reality a lot of them are happy if we make the tourney fairly consistently. Admin and fans don’t demand excellence — that’s a problem but is what it is.
I give up and we are what we are. Winning the BTT would be kinda cool.
The goal is never “simply“ making the tournament.
The pursuit of winning the conference does not exclude the goal of winning the conference tournament.
The pursuit of winning the conference tournament does not exclude the goal of making the NCAA tournament.
The pursuit of making the NCAA tournament does not exclude the goal of making the S16.
The pursuit of making the S16 does not exclude the goal of making the FF.
The pursuit of making the FF does not exclude the goal of winning the national championship.
Honestly, I don’t why anyone would think otherwise.
And the rest of the relevant programs look at the NCAA tournament as nearly a given, not a big win. IU looks at it as a huge accomplishment.
Which one of those goals you listed is anything close to realistic for IU?
Pretty sad for a “basketball” school.
FAU is trailing South Florida in their conference- they stepped up in competition changing conferences this season.
IU sees making the NCAA as a “huge accomplishment”? I firmly disagree. I believe IU sees it now as they always have, an interim goal along the way to the ultimate goal.
And Purdue would lose to a 32 seed?
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Can someone explain the huge NET disparity between IU and MSU.
Galloway and Leal announced they will return on senior night.
I said the same damn thing. Same record. Same quad one record. Same SOS. What the hell???
Hopefully someone can answer, that was a bit discouraging seeing MSU having a tourny worthy resume according to the metrics but it was the same as ours from what they showed on T.V.
I thought the NET only went by Quadrants. Their Quad 1 record is 4-9 and ours is 4-8. In fact the more I look, the more similar they are across all metrics lol.
All I am seeing is Record, Road, Neutral, Home, Quad 1,2,3,4. I am speaking specifically for NET only.
No sir. They(NET) use other factors than what you are stating.
College basketball's NET rankings, explained
Here's everything you need to know about college basketball's NET ranking system.
www.ncaa.com
Oh! That’s way more in depth. Now it’s starting to make a bit more sense. All those double digit losses are coming back to haunt us.No sir. They(NET) use other factors than what you are stating.
College basketball's NET rankings, explained
Here's everything you need to know about college basketball's NET ranking system.
MSU essentially blew out their inferior competition while IU didn’t, and MSU didn’t get blown out in several games like IU did. Efficiency is part of the NET equation and unfortunately IU’s efficiency metrics are terrible this year.
NET is only one tool the committee uses; resume and eye test are still used. And if you’ve followed the selection process since NET has been implemented, the NET rankings don’t necessarily reflect selection or seeding. That being said, IU would likely need to advance to the finals on Sunday by virtue of beating Nebraska and Illinois on Friday and Saturday for there to even be the slightest rooting interest come the selection show. And even then I’m not sure it’s enough. Probably best just to win the whole thing.
We will make the tourney if about 30 of the teams in the tourney decide not to play. IU will probably be one of the last 4 in then.
No sir. They(NET) use other factors than what you are stating.
College basketball's NET rankings, explained
Here's everything you need to know about college basketball's NET ranking system.
“Game date and game order were not included in the NET rankings so a team's first game counts the same as its 30th.
With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin.”
So it looks like scoring margin has not been a factor for a while. Looks like one thing that has tanked us is losing to PSU at home, which is a Quad 3 loss. However, it looks to be a Quad 3 loss because PSU didn’t play any tough non-conference opponents.
This whole NET thing feels a lot like creating something that looks objective so that when someone selects a team they like, they can say the computer made them do it rather than own their decision.
They changed it. They do consider scoring margin but it’s capped at ten points. among other things.
The NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, will be the new barometer for the committee, and it will include game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.
Our efficiency and margins are terrible. That’s killing our resume. The other thing is they use it to try and tell if a team is good enough to beat the automatic bids lower seeded teams similar to the non conference schedule.
I’m just quoting from the link you posted from the NCAA site. Did they reintroduce scoring margin this year?
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