Updated Playoff Rankings Predictions

[IUclover]

I'm GUESSING, the end result a few years from now, is a 16 team playoff. Top ranked conference champs host games, top couple at larges host games, the 8 winners of those games feed in to the "bowls", like they do now. No more byes, the benefit of winning conf champ game is hosting a playoff game.

This would mean more games for the TV contracts, and more money for the schools and conferences that get an extra game to host.

After looking at the CFP schedule, I can also see potential for shortening the schedule by a game in the future, especially if they plan on keeping the conference champ game. Players are being asked to play 3-4 more primetime games dating out to Jan. 20 and I assume players will start asking for compensation for those games.

 

[Victorbmyboy]

I'm GUESSING, the end result a few years from now, is a 16 team playoff. Top ranked conference champs host games, top couple at larges host games, the 8 winners of those games feed in to the "bowls", like they do now. No more byes, the benefit of winning conf champ game is hosting a playoff game.

This would mean more games for the TV contracts, and more money for the schools and conferences that get an extra game to host.

And it would fix these meaningless bowls with some opt outs and transfers.

 

[IUNorth]

And it would fix these meaningless bowls with some opt outs and transfers.

I think traditional bowl games will fizzle off and die here soon, anyways. Maybe its just that IU has been in the CFP picture now for long enough, that its causing me to not even think about any of the lesser bowls this year??? Maybe if IU were 9-3 right now, I'd be excited and following the Outback Bowl or Citrus Bowl more?? But man, it sure seems like interest in the non CFP Bowls have waned, and we'll continue to see more and more watered down rosters from transfers and NFL departures skipping the games.

The 6 marquee bowls will remain, but as soon as the return on the sponsor companies investment falls below whatever the acceptable numbers are...they'll all be gone.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

16 teams is coming soon, and I wouldn't be shocked if it went to 24 honestly. Add more teams and have wild card games. The championship games are already meaningless other than the bye/seeding for a top team, and automatic qualification for a team outside the top 12. End the regular season at 12 games and move right into the playoffs. TV ratings would be astronomical and it'll print $$, so it'll expand at least 2 more times imo.

 

[IUNorth]

16 teams is coming soon, and I wouldn't be shocked if it went to 24 honestly. Add more teams and have wild card games. The championship games are already meaningless other than the bye/seeding for a top team, and automatic qualification for a team outside the top 12. End the regular season at 12 games and move right into the playoffs. TV ratings would be astronomical and it'll print $$, so it'll expand at least 2 more times imo.

16 seems like a good number, to me.

Keep regular season, and conf championship games how they are currently.

B10, ACC, SEC, B12, and top ranked Group of 5 conference champions get to host first round playoff games.

11 At large teams.

Outside the 5 conference champs that get to host games, all the seeding is based on the rankings. So its possible the number 1 overall seed is an at large team (Notre Dame maybe)...maybe Georgia is undefeated regular season, loses to a 3 loss Bama team in the SEC title game...Georgia gets number 1 overall seed still, Bama also gets to host 1st round game by winning conf championship.

Same system as we have today, selection committee, CFP rankings, etc...

2nd and 3rd rounds known as the Bowl Rounds... and handled similarly to how they are today...

If there are B10 teams remaining, highest rated B10 team plays in Rose Bowl.

Same stipulation for SEC/Sugar Bowl, ACC/Orange Bowl, B12/Fiesta Bowl

Cotton and Peach Bowls host Final Four every year

Natty game rotates every year

With Current Rankings, this years first round playoffs would look like (this will change tonight, I know):

1 Oregon hosts 16 South Carolina
2 Ohio State hosts 15 Ole Miss
3 Texas hosts 14 Alabama
4 Penn State hosts 13 Clemson
5 Notre Dame hosts 12 Indiana
6 Miami hosts 11 SMU
7 Boise State hosts 10 Tennessee
8 Arizona State hosts 9 Georgia

If it all went "chalk"...

Rose Bowl = 1 Oregon vs 7 Boise State
Sugar Bowl = 3 Texas vs 5 Notre Dame
Orange Bowl = 6 Miami vs 4 Penn State
Fiesta Bowl = 8 Arizona State vs 2 Ohio State

Cotton bowl = highest remaining seed versus lowest remaining seed (Oregon vs Penn State)
Peach bowl = other two teams (Texas vs Ohio State)

Could get weird when it doesn't go "chalk"... But the overall framework seems like it'd work, it'd preserve, if not strengthen the conf championships, it'd give more teams incentive to play it out until the end of the year, etc...

 

[OpenWheels]

Zero, with the old bowl system, would've been OK too.

But then there'd be no excuse to play 17 games and make more money off the backs of these guys. At least they get paid now .
,

 

[Victorbmyboy]

Army isn't ranked in the most recent CFP rankings.

If A&M had defeated Texas and then proceeded to win the SEC championship, they would have ended up much higher than 16.

It's hard for non-P4 teams to even crack the Top 25. And when they do, it's tough for them to move substantially higher because of their schedules. Their opponents are generally vastly inferior to the teams the P4 guys play in conference, and the voters factor that in.

Boise State, from the Mountain West, is an exceptional team having an exceptional year. They've played some very good teams including the best - - #1 (then #7) Oregon, who needed a late FG to beat them (Boise's only loss). I won't say "never" because never is a long time, but it's hard to imagine two G5 teams like Boise in the same year.

There is no scenario that I'm aware of this year where a P4 champ could be excluded from the CFP, and it's unlikely to happen in the future.

Finally, we're going to see some tweaking of the CFP formula after the season.

So there it is. Iowa state is 18th. Tulane is 17th. If Tulane wins its conference championship and Iowa state wins the big 12. Guess who gets the spot? Boise gets in. Iowa state does not.

 

[frikkenfrakken]

So there it is. Iowa state is 18th. Tulane is 17th. If Tulane wins its conference championship and Iowa state wins the big 12. Guess who gets the spot? Boise gets in. Iowa state does not.

Tulane won't be 17th in a few minutes. They lost to Memphis last weekend.

Edit: But I think this scenario is more likely than I originally anticipated, and your point is well reasoned.

 

[Bowlmania]

We want Texas beating Georgia and Clemson defeating SMU this weekend!

 

[Wiedersehen]

So were ranked 9 and end up the 10 seed… is there any scenario where we get bumped out of this thing?

Clemson beating SMU would put them into the field. If Georgia wins the SEC does the committee push Bama ahead of IU and push us out?!? That would be total injustice.

 

[Tammany Hall]

So were ranked 9 and end up the 10 seed… is there any scenario where we get bumped out of this thing?

Clemson beating SMU would put them into the field. If Georgia wins the SEC does the committee push Bama ahead of IU and push us out?!? That would be total injustice.

Right now oddsmakers have us as the 10th best chance to win it all, and no one is even offering odds on us making it or not since it appears to be a lock.

 

[IUNCAAChamps2012]

So were ranked 9 and end up the 10 seed… is there any scenario where we get bumped out of this thing?

Clemson beating SMU would put them into the field. If Georgia wins the SEC does the committee push Bama ahead of IU and push us out?!? That would be total injustice.

So were ranked 9 and end up the 10 seed… is there any scenario where we get bumped out of this thing?

Clemson beating SMU would put them into the field. If Georgia wins the SEC does the committee push Bama ahead of IU and push us out?!? That would be total injustice.

The committee chair made it clear that no team who isn’t playing this weekend can jump another team not playing this weekend. IU is 100% in.

 

[Wiedersehen]

Right now oddsmakers have us as the 10th best chance to win it all, and no one is even offering odds on us making it or not since it appears to be a lock.

I get all that. But Clemson beating SMU, which isn’t crazy, makes IU the last at large team in the field. Close enough to make me nervous.

 

[Tammany Hall]

I get all that. But Clemson beating SMU, which isn’t crazy, makes IU the last at large team in the field. Close enough to make me nervous.

Get nervous all you want, but the betting markets are the best source of information on this topic.

 

[YOTHN]

I get all that. But Clemson beating SMU, which isn’t crazy, makes IU the last at large team in the field. Close enough to make me nervous.

You're assuming SMU wouldn't fall below IU in that scenario. IU is definitely in.

 

[Sonap]

So we are at UGA.

What happens if Boise State loses to UNLV?

 

[Bowlmania]

I get all that. But Clemson beating SMU, which isn’t crazy, makes IU the last at large team in the field. Close enough to make me nervous.

Clemson beating SMU likely moves us UP.

 

[Bowlmania]

So we are at UGA.

What happens if Boise State loses to UNLV?

No. These brackets are as of today. Georgia is playing this weekend so their situation is fluid. I’d say it’s less than 50-50 we end up at Georgia.

No way Boise State loses this weekend on the blue turf.

 

[Hoosiers47614]

So we are at UGA.

What happens if Boise State loses to UNLV?

Basically, nothing for us. At most, it might drop us to 11 and send us to South Bend instead.

That would mean the ASU/ISU winner jumps up into the bye as the 4 seed and UNLV is in at 12. Boise is out.

 

[IUFreak]

I still can’t get over that after the best season I’ve ever seen, our reward may be to end up on Georgia’s home field, a game that very few of us will get to attend. This set up needs some work.

 

[Bowlmania]

I still can’t get over that after the best season I’ve ever seen, our reward may be to end up on Georgia’s home field, a game that very few of us will get to attend. This set up needs some work.

Be thankful we’re in the tournament at all. It was looking doubtful immediately after the Ohio State game but we got some help.

 

[IUFreak]

Be thankful we’re in the tournament at all. It was looking doubtful immediately after the Ohio State game but we got some help.

Agreed but I’m talking more about the lack of tickets available at a non-neutral site.

 

[Bowlmania]

Agreed but I’m talking more about the lack of tickets available at a non-neutral site.

Agreed. 3500 tickets for the visitors. That blows.

 

[ribbont]

No. These brackets are as of today. Georgia is playing this weekend so their situation is fluid. I’d say it’s less than 50-50 we end up at Georgia.

No way Boise State loses this weekend on the blue turf.

Seems to me the 5 will be loser of OR/PSU, the 7 the loser of TX/UGA.

And the 11 will be Bama, Boise, or SMU.

 

[td75]

It's disappointing that an 11-1 team has to get out on the road instead of hosting a home playoff game!

 

[Bowlmania]

Seems to me the 5 will be loser of OR/PSU, the 7 the loser of TX/UGA.

And the 11 will be Bama, Boise, or SMU.

Georgia is currently the 7-seed. You think they’ll remain at 7 if they lose? I think that’s possible but unlikely.

 

[ribbont]

Georgia is currently the 7-seed. You think they’ll remain at 7 if they lose? I think that’s possible but unlikely.

Yep, unless it's an ugly loss.

 

[Bowlmania]

It's disappointing that an 11-1 team has to get out on the road instead of hosting a home playoff game!

Disappointing but not surprising. We had one game against a ranked opponent and it didn’t go well.

We’ve still got something to prove and we will on Dec 20/21.

 

[twenty02]

I get all that. But Clemson beating SMU, which isn’t crazy, makes IU the last at large team in the field. Close enough to make me nervous.

I don't think any of this is accurate

 

[twenty02]

I still can’t get over that after the best season I’ve ever seen, our reward may be to end up on Georgia’s home field, a game that very few of us will get to attend. This set up needs some work.

Agree. I don't like the home game setup whatsoever.

 

[td75]

Disappointing but not surprising. We had one game against a ranked opponent and it didn’t go well.

We’ve still got something to prove and we will on Dec 20/21.

I thought Nebraska was in the top 25 when we played?

 

[YOTHN]

Agree. I don't like the home game setup whatsoever.

That's where the higher seed has advantage of a true homefield advantage. Its not meant to be a neutral site game. Also, it brings college traditions and pagentry into the playoffs. Lastly, if ever we were to be ranked higher, we'd have a massive advantage over the warm weather schools.

 

[YOTHN]

I thought Nebraska was in the top 25 when we played?

Only in the coaches poll. Most only go off AP until the CFP comes out.

 

[Hoosiers47614]

I thought Nebraska was in the top 25 when we played?

They were ranked in the Coaches poll (25th), but only receiving votes in the AP poll.

 

[IUCrazy2]

That's where the higher seed has advantage of a true homefield advantage. Its not meant to be a neutral site game. Also, it brings college traditions and pagentry into the playoffs. Lastly, if ever we were to be ranked higher, we'd have a massive advantage over the warm weather schools.

I would agree with that if they ranked this like the basketball tournament. The ACC shouldn't get a first round bye this year and neither should the Big 12 if we are being real. Rank then 1 to 12. 1 to 4 get the byes and then I am more inclined to be OK with the home games.

 

[daddyhoosier]

I guess we aren't starting a new thread for the rankings drop...(awkward pause)...

One question I want to throw out there: If you took our schedule, results, and stats and erased Indiana at the top and scribbled in Michigan State instead, would the Committee treat us differently? I guess from a psychological point of view past program performance could affect the current year's performance, but in this transfer portal era - where we have a new coaching staff with mostly new players, some of whom have been on 3 or even 4 different teams...at some point it just seems silly to suggest that the 2003 Indiana Hoosiers have any bearing on the 2024 Hoosiers whatsoever. But it is what it is. The rankings are kinda jumbled up anyway with the system they use to re-rank, so it ends up being largely luck of the draw.

Interesting, the committee bumped up Miami a couple places (relative to the AP Poll) making them the first team out and Alabama is the last team in. I don't really have a problem with this actually. Miami lost to unranked opponents in 2 of the last 3 weeks so they have only themselves to blame. Alabama doesn't really deserve to be in either but you have to pick someone. I assume this juxtaposition (3-loss SEC and 2-loss ACC) is intentional so that people would debate it. Magically Miami is ahead of South Carolina. 🪄 ✨ 😏

 

[Wiedersehen]

I don't think any of this is accurate

It’s all accurate.

 

[daddyhoosier]

And it would fix these meaningless bowls with some opt outs and transfers.

I would still take the least prestigious bowl game over no bowl game all day.

 

[twenty02]

That's where the higher seed has advantage of a true homefield advantage. Its not meant to be a neutral site game. Also, it brings college traditions and pagentry into the playoffs. Lastly, if ever we were to be ranked higher, we'd have a massive advantage over the warm weather schools.

I still find it stupid. So basically the only teams (and their fans) that get the 'privilege' of having to play a road post season game are teams that the end up ranked 9-12.

Would be just as bad as having the NCAA regionals in basketball played on home courts of whatever top remaining seeds made it through the first weekend.

 

[TominDallas]

I still can’t get over that after the best season I’ve ever seen, our reward may be to end up on Georgia’s home field, a game that very few of us will get to attend. This set up needs some work.

Silver lining is that will be an easier game than at OSU. We can do some damage down there.