Updated Playoff Rankings Predictions

[IUNorth]

I've been awful at these the last few weeks, so why not try again?!

Predictions for December 3 Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. SMU
8. Ohio State
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Ole Miss
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State

December 3 Bracket

1 Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 OSU
2 Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3 SMU vs 6 Notre Dame/11 Alabama
4 Boise State vs 5 Penn State/12 Arizona State

Championship Week games of note

1. Oregon beats PSU
2. Texas beats UGA
3. Iowa State beats Arizona State
4. SMU beats Clemson
5. Boise State beats UNLV

Final CFP Rankings (Dec 10)

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. SMU
5. Penn State
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. Ohio State
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Iowa State
15. Ole Miss

CFP Bracket

1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Ohio State
2. Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3. SMU vs 6 Penn State/11 Alabama
4. Boise State vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Iowa State

IF, Clemson wins...

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. Ohio State
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Iowa State
15. Clemson

Bracket if Clemson wins...

1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Ohio State
2. Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3. Boise State vs 6 Penn State/11 SMU
4. Iowa State vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Alabama

I don't believe Clemson is guaranteed a playoff berth if they win...could be wrong, but them at 12 if so. It'll be pretty controversial if SMU gets in as an at large, and Clemson is left out...if Clemson beats them this weekend.

There's still quite a lot of moving parts and questions...Where do they seed championship game losers, mainly? And for IU, if Georgia loses to Texas, where do they put them? It sure looks like IU will be fairly locked in to the 10 seed, at this point. And will play at an SEC school...Georgia, Tennessee, maybe Texas if Georgia wins on Saturday.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

Clemson would be in if they win the ACC championship game, but getting a bye wouldn't be guaranteed. I think O$U only drops to 6th, but I agree with everything else. My biggest question mark is how far does Miami fall? Do they drop behind 3 loss SEC teams?

If both GA and Penn St lose Saturday, do we move up to 7th, and then slide to 8th but get to host after the reseeding? It's our only shot, but I'm not sure the committee drops them both below us. They SHOULD drop them both below us, but who knows?

 

[kkott]

I've been awful at these the last few weeks, so why not try again?!

Predictions for December 3 Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. SMU
8. Ohio State
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Ole Miss
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State

December 3 Bracket

1 Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 OSU
2 Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3 SMU vs 6 Notre Dame/11 Alabama
4 Boise State vs 5 Penn State/12 Arizona State

Championship Week games of note

1. Oregon beats PSU
2. Texas beats UGA
3. Iowa State beats Arizona State
4. SMU beats Clemson
5. Boise State beats UNLV

Final CFP Rankings (Dec 10)

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. SMU
5. Penn State
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. Ohio State
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Iowa State
15. Ole Miss

CFP Bracket

1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Ohio State
2. Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3. SMU vs 6 Penn State/11 Alabama
4. Boise State vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Iowa State

IF, Clemson wins...

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. Ohio State
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Iowa State
15. Clemson

Bracket if Clemson wins...

1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Ohio State
2. Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3. Boise State vs 6 Penn State/11 SMU
4. Iowa State vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Alabama

I don't believe Clemson is guaranteed a playoff berth if they win...could be wrong, but them at 12 if so. It'll be pretty controversial if SMU gets in as an at large, and Clemson is left out...if Clemson beats them this weekend.

There's still quite a lot of moving parts and questions...Where do they seed championship game losers, mainly? And for IU, if Georgia loses to Texas, where do they put them? It sure looks like IU will be fairly locked in to the 10 seed, at this point. And will play at an SEC school...Georgia, Tennessee, maybe Texas if Georgia wins on Saturday.

I'll bet there's at least one upset in the bunch of Oregon v PSU, UGA v TX, and ISU v ASU. I'm not sure I consider Clemson beating SMU as an upset and not sure if it's better for us, who wins? SMU wins and eliminates Clemson, but if Clemson wins could they then have 2 ACC schools above us? I really don't want the committee to have to "make a decision" regarding IU, because I feel like their tendency will be to screw us.

 

[IUNorth]

Clemson would be in if they win the ACC championship game, but getting a bye wouldn't be guaranteed. I think O$U only drops to 6th, but I agree with everything else. My biggest question mark is how far does Miami fall? Do they drop behind 3 loss SEC teams?

If both GA and Penn St lose Saturday, do we move up to 7th, and then slide to 8th but get to host after the reseeding? It's our only shot, but I'm not sure the committee drops them both below us. They SHOULD drop them both below us, but who knows?

You may be right...but I don't think all 5 of the major conference champions are guaranteed a berth. I think only 4 of them are.

 

[IUNorth]

I'll bet there's at least one upset in the bunch of Oregon v PSU, UGA v TX, and ISU v ASU. I'm not sure I consider Clemson beating SMU as an upset and not sure if it's better for us, who wins? SMU wins and eliminates Clemson, but if Clemson wins could they then have 2 ACC schools above us? I really don't want the committee to have to "make a decision" regarding IU, because I feel like their tendency will be to screw us.

I remember a pundit talking about the possibility of the B12 champion missing out of the CFP, a couple weeks ago. Their point was that if all the other 4 main conference champs were rated higher, and the B12 champ wasn't ranked high enough to get an at large, they'd get bumped. But it was just one pundit, maybe all 5 get in no matter what?

 

[IUNorth]

I'm wrong...per usual... Its the 5 Highest Ranked Conference Champs, that get automatic births. The pundit I remembered was talking about Army beating ND, and them then being ranked higher than the B12 champ...

Tulane could have made this scenario interesting, but they lost to Memphis. So just put Clemson in as the 12 seed if they beat SMU.

 

[Bowlmania]

Clemson would be in if they win the ACC championship game, but getting a bye wouldn't be guaranteed. I think O$U only drops to 6th, but I agree with everything else. My biggest question mark is how far does Miami fall? Do they drop behind 3 loss SEC teams?

If both GA and Penn St lose Saturday, do we move up to 7th, and then slide to 8th but get to host after the reseeding? It's our only shot, but I'm not sure the committee drops them both below us. They SHOULD drop them both below us, but who knows?

Good post.

Georgia could end up below us, but there’s little chance Penn State would drop more than a couple of spots as a result of losing a conference championship game to the # 1 (and only undefeated) team in the country, unless they were absolutely destroyed.

 

[IUNorth]

Good post.

Georgia could end up below us, but there’s little chance Penn State would drop more than a couple of spots as a result of losing a conference championship game to the # 1 (and only undefeated) team in the country, unless they were absolutely destroyed.

Not sure how the committee will view the Conf Championship games, but there seems to be a consensus that teams won't really be penalized much for losing in Conf Title games. I take that to mean, they likely wouldn't use a conf title game loss to move teams down many spots from a loss. I guess a blowout loss might change that, but wouldn't anticipate PSU or Georgia, dropping much at all with losses this weekend.

And no, I don't think IU jumps either of them...I think that would require IU to jump OSU, practically, and that isn't going to happen.

I suspect we're locked in to the 9-11 rankings, and 9-11 bracket seeding, depending on who all wins their conference championship games.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

Not sure how the committee will view the Conf Championship games, but there seems to be a consensus that teams won't really be penalized much for losing in Conf Title games. I take that to mean, they likely wouldn't use a conf title game loss to move teams down many spots from a loss. I guess a blowout loss might change that, but wouldn't anticipate PSU or Georgia, dropping much at all with losses this weekend.

And no, I don't think IU jumps either of them...I think that would require IU to jump OSU, practically, and that isn't going to happen.

I suspect we're locked in to the 9-11 rankings, and 9-11 bracket seeding, depending on who all wins their conference championship games.

I should've also added that SMU losing to Clemson helps us as well, but not that much as the top 4 conference champs get byes regardless, and top 5 make it regardless. The idea that losing a conference championship game shouldn't hurt you should only apply to keeping you in the playoffs. If you are in the top 12 seeds after tonight's reveal, then you shouldn't drop out entirely if you lose your championship game. You should totally drop in the rankings though. If GA loses to TX, Penn St loses to Oregon, and SMU loses to Clemson, then there should 100% be a home CFP game in Bloomington for IU. However, I have zero confidence the committee would do that. I see a 1st round road game in our future no matter what happens this weekend.

 

[Bowlmania]

I see a 1st round road game in our future no matter what happens this weekend.

Agreed. But hey, at least we'll be spared the dumb posts questioning fan support (which was been EXCELLENT) and stupidly predicting only 35k will show up at MS.

 

[IUNorth]

I should've also added that SMU losing to Clemson helps us as well, but not that much as the top 4 conference champs get byes regardless, and top 5 make it regardless. The idea that losing a conference championship game shouldn't hurt you should only apply to keeping you in the playoffs. If you are in the top 12 seeds after tonight's reveal, then you shouldn't drop out entirely if you lose your championship game. You should totally drop in the rankings though. If GA loses to TX, Penn St loses to Oregon, and SMU loses to Clemson, then there should 100% be a home CFP game in Bloomington for IU. However, I have zero confidence the committee would do that. I see a 1st round road game in our future no matter what happens this weekend.

Agree totally. Not sure the committee does, but I guess we'll see what happens on that. Lots of scenarios still in play. But "most" of them have IU playing on the road in the first round, I'd say. The "worst" of the realistic outcomes would be 8/9 game, at OSU...for many reasons. The "best", other than sliding in to that 8th spot and hosting a game, would be a 6/11 type matchup at Notre Dame.

 

[kkott]

Agree totally. Not sure the committee does, but I guess we'll see what happens on that. Lots of scenarios still in play. But "most" of them have IU playing on the road in the first round, I'd say. The "worst" of the realistic outcomes would be 8/9 game, at OSU...for many reasons. The "best", other than sliding in to that 8th spot and hosting a game, would be a 6/11 type matchup at Notre Dame.

To me, it's all house money at this point. No one would've dreamed about IU being in the CFP so the fact that we are there to me is the accomplishment, and I have complete faith with Cignetti at the helm, he'll have them as ready as they can be. I certainly think we're capable of pulling an upset, but don't expect it. Likely wherever we play, we still have to face the challenges of a big time environment like we saw in Columbus. Obviously I hope it's a win, but win or lose, nothing takes away from the season they've compiled.

 

[IUclover]

My unsurprising guess is that IU ends up ranked 9, 10, or 11 in the bracket. I don't see us jumping OSU or PSU and Alabama will stay in that 11 to 12 spot depending on what happens this weekend.

I just want to get to next week so I can start planning a trip.

 

[Pazhoosier85]

I'm afraid we're going to get sent to Tennessee. That's a tough place to play. I think I would prefer to play Ga after seeing how Tech dominated for most of the game.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I should've also added that SMU losing to Clemson helps us as well, but not that much as the top 4 conference champs get byes regardless, and top 5 make it regardless. The idea that losing a conference championship game shouldn't hurt you should only apply to keeping you in the playoffs. If you are in the top 12 seeds after tonight's reveal, then you shouldn't drop out entirely if you lose your championship game. You should totally drop in the rankings though. If GA loses to TX, Penn St loses to Oregon, and SMU loses to Clemson, then there should 100% be a home CFP game in Bloomington for IU. However, I have zero confidence the committee would do that. I see a 1st round road game in our future no matter what happens this weekend.

I think what you post will happen. Tx beats ga. Oregon beats psu. And the taters beat smu. Btw smu hasn’t beaten anyone.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I'm afraid we're going to get sent to Tennessee. That's a tough place to play. I think I would prefer to play Ga after seeing how Tech dominated for most of the game.

Fun trip tho

 

[Bowlmania]

I should've also added that SMU losing to Clemson helps us as well, but not that much as the top 4 conference champs get byes regardless, and top 5 make it regardless.

But wait. The four highest-ranked conference champs get byes. Clemson is going to drop way down to 17 or 18 in tomorrow night's rankings. If they beat SMU in the ACC championship, they'll move up but they may still be the lowest ranked conference champion (of the five). In that case, they wouldn't get the bye and would probably enter the field as a 12-seed. And SMU would drop behind us as an at-large.

The second part of the equation is Texas/Georgia in the SEC championship. If Texas destroys Georgia, and if (see above) Clemson beats SMU, this would be our only path (unless I'm overlooking something) to an 8-seed and a home game. Somebody please fact-check me on this.

 

[hozo4ultimate]

You are on a roll, no fact check needed. That's an awesomly optimistic scenario, I like it.

 

[Bowlmania]

You are on a roll, no fact check needed. That's an awesomly optimistic scenario, I like it.

Check out this interactive site, last updated yesterday. Very cool. Click on the IU logo. Our chances of hosting are actually higher than I thought. Still, an away game is the greater likelihood.

Who will make the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff?

Select your favorite contender, make your picks for how its season will play out and see what the Allstate Playoff Predictor foretells.

www.espn.com

 

[frikkenfrakken]

You may be right...but I don't think all 5 of the major conference champions are guaranteed a berth. I think only 4 of them are.

There are only 4 major conferences now. Their champions get auto-bids.

 

[frikkenfrakken]

Check out this interactive site, last updated yesterday. Very cool. Click on the IU logo. Our chances of hosting are actually higher than I thought. Still, an away game is the greater likelihood.

Who will make the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff?

Select your favorite contender, make your picks for how its season will play out and see what the Allstate Playoff Predictor foretells.

www.espn.com

I ran this over and over for 10 minutes straight yesterday, and finally got an IU Natty. 4% chance, according to ESPN.

 

[frikkenfrakken]

But wait. The four highest-ranked conference champs get byes. Clemson is going to drop way down to 17 or 18 in tomorrow night's rankings. If they beat SMU in the ACC championship, they'll move up but they may still be the lowest ranked conference champion (of the five). In that case, they wouldn't get the bye and would probably enter the field as a 12-seed. And SMU would drop behind us as an at-large.

The second part of the equation is Texas/Georgia in the SEC championship. If Texas destroys Georgia, and if (see above) Clemson beats SMU, this would be our only path (unless I'm overlooking something) to an 8-seed and a home game. Somebody please fact-check me on this.

There are rare scenarios where we get a 7 seed...very unlikely, but it depends on how much the committee cares about losing conference championship games, and if there are significant injuries.

If PSU and Georgia lose by 100 and their 5 best players get hurt, and Notre Dame's stadium burns down, we could get the 6 seed. Lol.

 

[Bowlmania]

There are only 4 major conferences now. Their champions get auto-bids.

The P4 champs (B1G, SEC, Big 12 and ACC) and the highest ranked G5 champ (likely Boise State) get auto-bids. Of those 5, the four highest ranked teams are seeded 1-4 and get the first round byes. Boise could conceivably have a first round bye.

 

[hoosierfan13]

11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Ole Miss

I have South Carolina ahead of Miami but I don't think there's a path for either to get in. There's only one potential spot available and Bama should be the team that ranks highest. They're ahead of South Carolina and Miami in both the Coaches and AP polls.

The big question is if Alabama or SMU get that last spot in the event that SMU loses to Clemson. Betting odds aren't sure. SMU has a 55% chance of beating Clemson but only a 66% chance of making the playoffs, implying that they're not guaranteed a spot if they lose. Alabama has a 63% chance of making the playoff, which is higher than the odds of SMU winning, indicating that they could get in even with a Clemson win.

 

[hoosierfan13]

But wait. The four highest-ranked conference champs get byes. Clemson is going to drop way down to 17 or 18 in tomorrow night's rankings. If they beat SMU in the ACC championship, they'll move up but they may still be the lowest ranked conference champion (of the five). In that case, they wouldn't get the bye and would probably enter the field as a 12-seed. And SMU would drop behind us as an at-large.

The second part of the equation is Texas/Georgia in the SEC championship. If Texas destroys Georgia, and if (see above) Clemson beats SMU, this would be our only path (unless I'm overlooking something) to an 8-seed and a home game. Somebody please fact-check me on this.

All we would need is the Oregon blowout and the Texas blowout, the SMU game doesn't matter.

IU simply needs to be ahead of (4) teams. In this scenario, UGA + PSU would fall behind us, Bama (or SMU if they lose and still get in over Bama) is behind us, and a 2-loss Big 12 champ is unlikely to jump us.

 

[hoosierfan13]

The P4 champs (B1G, SEC, Big 12 and ACC) and the highest ranked G5 champ (likely Boise State) get auto-bids. Of those 5, the four highest ranked teams are seeded 1-4 and get the first round byes. Boise could conceivably have a first round bye.

If they win they're getting the bye given that they already rank ahead of both 2-loss teams in the Big 12 championship (ASU + ISU), they might even get the 3 seed (SMU loses to Clemson).

Boise is a dream matchup for whoever gets them in the 2nd round. Power ratings have them as the ~30th best team in the country.

 

[frikkenfrakken]

If they win they're getting the bye given that they already rank ahead of both 2-loss teams in the Big 12 championship (ASU + ISU), they might even get the 3 seed (SMU loses to Clemson).

Boise is a dream matchup for whoever gets them in the 2nd round. Power ratings have them as the ~30th best team in the country.

Yeah, it sucks that we are unlikely to get them in the draw. They are going to be the 3 or 4, and we are going to see the 1 or 2 seed in the second round if we win in round 1.

Oh well. Go win.

 

[Victorbmyboy]

There are only 4 major conferences now. Their champions get auto-bids.

No they don’t. There is a scenario we’re no ACC or big 12 gets in. If they are ranked outside the top 12. Being a one bid conference m. It’s unlikely but could happen. Say the American conference champ is ranked higher than the ACC champ then they get the bye. Then the B1G, SEC, B12 get the others. Then Boise gets the 5th spot. It’s not P4 playoff.

 

[Victorbmyboy]

The P4 champs (B1G, SEC, Big 12 and ACC) and the highest ranked G5 champ (likely Boise State) get auto-bids. Of those 5, the four highest ranked teams are seeded 1-4 and get the first round byes. Boise could conceivably have a first round bye.

Not true. It’s the highest 5 highest ranked conference champs. Not highest p4 conference champs. There are scenarios out there that would leave an ACC or Big12 champ out.

 

[Bowlmania]

Not true. It’s the highest 5 highest ranked conference champs. Not highest p4 conference champs. There are scenarios out there that would leave an ACC or Big12 champ out.

I believe you’re technically correct but, from a practical standpoint, what scenario leaves a P4 champ out of the field of 12? What non-P4 conference, other than the Mountain West, is in play?

 

[frikkenfrakken]

No they don’t. There is a scenario we’re no ACC or big 12 gets in. If they are ranked outside the top 12. Being a one bid conference m. It’s unlikely but could happen. Say the American conference champ is ranked higher than the ACC champ then they get the bye. Then the B1G, SEC, B12 get the others. Then Boise gets the 5th spot. It’s not P4 playoff.

Interesting, but no G5 team is going to rank ahead of Boise, Clemson, and the B12 winner if they win this weekend. Tulane had a chance, but they lost last weekend, so they may not even be in the top 25 anymore.

If Boise lost to UNLV this weekend, they likely fall out of the bracket. They will probably be ranked 10th tonight, but if they lose to UNLV, 3 conference champions would jump them and push them to 13th, and thats before you factor in that a neutral site loss to UNLV should cause them to drop behind Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina.

 

[Victorbmyboy]

Interesting, but no G5 team is going to rank ahead of Boise, Clemson, and the B12 winner if they win this weekend. Tulane had a chance, but they lost last weekend, so they may not even be in the top 25 anymore.

If Boise lost to UNLV this weekend, they likely fall out of the bracket. They will probably be ranked 10th tonight, but if they lose to UNLV, 3 conference champions would jump them and push them to 13th, and thats before you factor in that a neutral site loss to UNLV should cause them to drop behind Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina.

Not arguing that at all. Just saying there is a scenario in the future. That’s why the bye stuff is so controversial. It’s definitely not cut and dry.

 

[Victorbmyboy]

I believe you’re technically correct but, from a practical standpoint, what scenario leaves a P4 champ out of the field of 12? What non-P4 conference, other than the Mountain West, is in play?

Say Texas A&M at 16 won over Texas but army was 15th and conference champ and Boise was 12th. They both get in over Texas a&m. Is it likely? No but the rules say it could. I’m using an extreme example too.

 

[Bowlmania]

Say Texas A&M at 16 won over Texas but army was 15th and conference champ and Boise was 12th. They both get in over Texas a&m. Is it likely? No but the rules say it could. I’m using an extreme example too.

Army isn't ranked in the most recent CFP rankings.

If A&M had defeated Texas and then proceeded to win the SEC championship, they would have ended up much higher than 16.

It's hard for non-P4 teams to even crack the Top 25. And when they do, it's tough for them to move substantially higher because of their schedules. Their opponents are generally vastly inferior to the teams the P4 guys play in conference, and the voters factor that in.

Boise State, from the Mountain West, is an exceptional team having an exceptional year. They've played some very good teams including the best - - #1 (then #7) Oregon, who needed a late FG to beat them (Boise's only loss). I won't say "never" because never is a long time, but it's hard to imagine two G5 teams like Boise in the same year.

There is no scenario that I'm aware of this year where a P4 champ could be excluded from the CFP, and it's unlikely to happen in the future.

Finally, we're going to see some tweaking of the CFP formula after the season.

 

[Victorbmyboy]

Army isn't ranked in the most recent CFP rankings.

If A&M had defeated Texas and then proceeded to win the SEC championship, they would have ended up much higher than 16.

It's hard for non-P4 teams to even crack the Top 25. And when they do, it's tough for them to move substantially higher because of their schedules. Their opponents are generally vastly inferior to the teams the P4 guys play in conference, and the voters factor that in.

Boise State, from the Mountain West, is an exceptional team having an exceptional year. They've played some very good teams including the best - - #1 (then #7) Oregon, who needed a late FG to beat them (Boise's only loss). I won't say "never" because never is a long time, but it's hard to imagine two G5 teams like Boise in the same year.

There is no scenario that I'm aware of this year where a P4 champ could be excluded from the CFP, and it's unlikely to happen in the future.

Finally, we're going to see some tweaking of the CFP formula after the season.

I just explained how. Not if it’s going to happen. It could happen in the future. I also used just random teams. Plug in who you want.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

Not sure how the committee will view the Conf Championship games, but there seems to be a consensus that teams won't really be penalized much for losing in Conf Title games. I take that to mean, they likely wouldn't use a conf title game loss to move teams down many spots from a loss. I guess a blowout loss might change that, but wouldn't anticipate PSU or Georgia, dropping much at all with losses this weekend.

And no, I don't think IU jumps either of them...I think that would require IU to jump OSU, practically, and that isn't going to happen.

I suspect we're locked in to the 9-11 rankings, and 9-11 bracket seeding, depending on who all wins their conference championship games.

I hear what you're saying and agree that's what I've heard too wrt punishing teams for making the championship games. But here's what I find perplexing...

If Texas loses to UGA (or oregon to PSU), Texas is likely to drop, but obviously stay in. So if Texas beats UGA, why shouldn't UGA drop, but stay in?

To me, the smart thing would be not to punish someone by keeping them out, but that it damn sure could/should impact your seeding.

 

[turney333]

Army isn't ranked in the most recent CFP rankings.

If A&M had defeated Texas and then proceeded to win the SEC championship, they would have ended up much higher than 16.

It's hard for non-P4 teams to even crack the Top 25. And when they do, it's tough for them to move substantially higher because of their schedules. Their opponents are generally vastly inferior to the teams the P4 guys play in conference, and the voters factor that in.

Boise State, from the Mountain West, is an exceptional team having an exceptional year. They've played some very good teams including the best - - #1 (then #7) Oregon, who needed a late FG to beat them. I won't say "never" because never is a long time, but it's hard to imagine two G5 teams like Boise in the same year.

There is no scenario that I'm aware of this year where a P4 champ could be excluded from the CFP, and it's unlikely to happen in the future.

Finally, we're going to see some tweaking of the CFP formula after the season.

I think I would tweak the playoff to have the top 4 regardless of conference champs get first round byes but have top 5 conference champs at worst hosting a home game the first round.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

I think I would tweak the playoff to have the top 4 regardless of conference champs get first round byes but have top 5 conference champs at worst hosting a home game the first round.

I'm just not sure that helps fix the problem. I think granting an auto bid is all that a conference champ should get and then you get seeded wherever you fit, just like basketball.

 

[IUNorth]

I hear what you're saying and agree that's what I've heard too wrt punishing teams for making the championship games. But here's what I find perplexing...

If Texas loses to UGA (or oregon to PSU), Texas is likely to drop, but obviously stay in. So if Texas beats UGA, why shouldn't UGA drop, but stay in?

To me, the smart thing would be not to punish someone by keeping them out, but that it damn sure could/should impact your seeding.

Agreed. And while I'm struggling to figure out how to verbalize it, or write it...I think the mere opportunity to play "good" teams, like playing a normal SEC schedule...at some point, shouldn't reward you nearly as much when you have multiple bad losses...

Bama got dominated by a mediocre .500 Oklahoma team. They also lost at Vandy, a decent team, but certainly not elite in any way. They did beat some really good teams too, but at some point, those bad losses should carry some weight. They got the opportunity to play a very difficult schedule, and they failed in 40 ish % of them (3 losses in what 7-8 tough games). IU didn't get the opportunity to play a similar level schedule. Coming in to the year, they did have the OSU game, they had last years Natty game teams on the schedule, they had road games at MSU, UCLA, and at NW (Bowl team from the year prior). Maybe they only had 3-4 "tough" games...but they only "failed" in one of those games. And I'd contend they fared quite a lot better at OSU than Bama did at Oklahoma.

 

[IUNorth]

I'm just not sure that helps fix the problem. I think granting an auto bid is all that a conference champ should get and then you get seeded wherever you fit, just like basketball.

I'm GUESSING, the end result a few years from now, is a 16 team playoff. Top ranked conference champs host games, top couple at larges host games, the 8 winners of those games feed in to the "bowls", like they do now. No more byes, the benefit of winning conf champ game is hosting a playoff game.

This would mean more games for the TV contracts, and more money for the schools and conferences that get an extra game to host.