Updated Playoff Rankings Predictions

[IUNorth]

I've been awful at these the last few weeks, so why not try again?!

Predictions for December 3 Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. SMU
8. Ohio State
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Ole Miss
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State

December 3 Bracket

1 Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 OSU
2 Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3 SMU vs 6 Notre Dame/11 Alabama
4 Boise State vs 5 Penn State/12 Arizona State

Championship Week games of note

1. Oregon beats PSU
2. Texas beats UGA
3. Iowa State beats Arizona State
4. SMU beats Clemson
5. Boise State beats UNLV

Final CFP Rankings (Dec 10)

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. SMU
5. Penn State
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. Ohio State
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Iowa State
15. Ole Miss

CFP Bracket

1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Ohio State
2. Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3. SMU vs 6 Penn State/11 Alabama
4. Boise State vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Iowa State

IF, Clemson wins...

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. Ohio State
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Iowa State
15. Clemson

Bracket if Clemson wins...

1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Ohio State
2. Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3. Boise State vs 6 Penn State/11 SMU
4. Iowa State vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Alabama

I don't believe Clemson is guaranteed a playoff berth if they win...could be wrong, but them at 12 if so. It'll be pretty controversial if SMU gets in as an at large, and Clemson is left out...if Clemson beats them this weekend.

There's still quite a lot of moving parts and questions...Where do they seed championship game losers, mainly? And for IU, if Georgia loses to Texas, where do they put them? It sure looks like IU will be fairly locked in to the 10 seed, at this point. And will play at an SEC school...Georgia, Tennessee, maybe Texas if Georgia wins on Saturday.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

Clemson would be in if they win the ACC championship game, but getting a bye wouldn't be guaranteed. I think O$U only drops to 6th, but I agree with everything else. My biggest question mark is how far does Miami fall? Do they drop behind 3 loss SEC teams?

If both GA and Penn St lose Saturday, do we move up to 7th, and then slide to 8th but get to host after the reseeding? It's our only shot, but I'm not sure the committee drops them both below us. They SHOULD drop them both below us, but who knows?

 

[kkott]

I've been awful at these the last few weeks, so why not try again?!

Predictions for December 3 Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. SMU
8. Ohio State
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Ole Miss
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State

December 3 Bracket

1 Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 OSU
2 Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3 SMU vs 6 Notre Dame/11 Alabama
4 Boise State vs 5 Penn State/12 Arizona State

Championship Week games of note

1. Oregon beats PSU
2. Texas beats UGA
3. Iowa State beats Arizona State
4. SMU beats Clemson
5. Boise State beats UNLV

Final CFP Rankings (Dec 10)

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. SMU
5. Penn State
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. Ohio State
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Iowa State
15. Ole Miss

CFP Bracket

1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Ohio State
2. Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3. SMU vs 6 Penn State/11 Alabama
4. Boise State vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Iowa State

IF, Clemson wins...

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. Ohio State
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. South Carolina
14. Iowa State
15. Clemson

Bracket if Clemson wins...

1. Oregon vs 8 Tennessee/9 Ohio State
2. Texas vs 7 Georgia/10 Indiana
3. Boise State vs 6 Penn State/11 SMU
4. Iowa State vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Alabama

I don't believe Clemson is guaranteed a playoff berth if they win...could be wrong, but them at 12 if so. It'll be pretty controversial if SMU gets in as an at large, and Clemson is left out...if Clemson beats them this weekend.

There's still quite a lot of moving parts and questions...Where do they seed championship game losers, mainly? And for IU, if Georgia loses to Texas, where do they put them? It sure looks like IU will be fairly locked in to the 10 seed, at this point. And will play at an SEC school...Georgia, Tennessee, maybe Texas if Georgia wins on Saturday.

I'll bet there's at least one upset in the bunch of Oregon v PSU, UGA v TX, and ISU v ASU. I'm not sure I consider Clemson beating SMU as an upset and not sure if it's better for us, who wins? SMU wins and eliminates Clemson, but if Clemson wins could they then have 2 ACC schools above us? I really don't want the committee to have to "make a decision" regarding IU, because I feel like their tendency will be to screw us.

 

[IUNorth]

Clemson would be in if they win the ACC championship game, but getting a bye wouldn't be guaranteed. I think O$U only drops to 6th, but I agree with everything else. My biggest question mark is how far does Miami fall? Do they drop behind 3 loss SEC teams?

If both GA and Penn St lose Saturday, do we move up to 7th, and then slide to 8th but get to host after the reseeding? It's our only shot, but I'm not sure the committee drops them both below us. They SHOULD drop them both below us, but who knows?

You may be right...but I don't think all 5 of the major conference champions are guaranteed a berth. I think only 4 of them are.

 

[IUNorth]

I'll bet there's at least one upset in the bunch of Oregon v PSU, UGA v TX, and ISU v ASU. I'm not sure I consider Clemson beating SMU as an upset and not sure if it's better for us, who wins? SMU wins and eliminates Clemson, but if Clemson wins could they then have 2 ACC schools above us? I really don't want the committee to have to "make a decision" regarding IU, because I feel like their tendency will be to screw us.

I remember a pundit talking about the possibility of the B12 champion missing out of the CFP, a couple weeks ago. Their point was that if all the other 4 main conference champs were rated higher, and the B12 champ wasn't ranked high enough to get an at large, they'd get bumped. But it was just one pundit, maybe all 5 get in no matter what?

 

[IUNorth]

I'm wrong...per usual... Its the 5 Highest Ranked Conference Champs, that get automatic births. The pundit I remembered was talking about Army beating ND, and them then being ranked higher than the B12 champ...

Tulane could have made this scenario interesting, but they lost to Memphis. So just put Clemson in as the 12 seed if they beat SMU.

 

[Bowlmania]

Clemson would be in if they win the ACC championship game, but getting a bye wouldn't be guaranteed. I think O$U only drops to 6th, but I agree with everything else. My biggest question mark is how far does Miami fall? Do they drop behind 3 loss SEC teams?

If both GA and Penn St lose Saturday, do we move up to 7th, and then slide to 8th but get to host after the reseeding? It's our only shot, but I'm not sure the committee drops them both below us. They SHOULD drop them both below us, but who knows?

Good post.

Georgia could end up below us, but there’s little chance Penn State would drop more than a couple of spots as a result of losing a conference championship game to the # 1 (and only undefeated) team in the country, unless they were absolutely destroyed.

 

[IUNorth]

Good post.

Georgia could end up below us, but there’s little chance Penn State would drop more than a couple of spots as a result of losing a conference championship game to the # 1 (and only undefeated) team in the country, unless they were absolutely destroyed.

Not sure how the committee will view the Conf Championship games, but there seems to be a consensus that teams won't really be penalized much for losing in Conf Title games. I take that to mean, they likely wouldn't use a conf title game loss to move teams down many spots from a loss. I guess a blowout loss might change that, but wouldn't anticipate PSU or Georgia, dropping much at all with losses this weekend.

And no, I don't think IU jumps either of them...I think that would require IU to jump OSU, practically, and that isn't going to happen.

I suspect we're locked in to the 9-11 rankings, and 9-11 bracket seeding, depending on who all wins their conference championship games.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

Not sure how the committee will view the Conf Championship games, but there seems to be a consensus that teams won't really be penalized much for losing in Conf Title games. I take that to mean, they likely wouldn't use a conf title game loss to move teams down many spots from a loss. I guess a blowout loss might change that, but wouldn't anticipate PSU or Georgia, dropping much at all with losses this weekend.

And no, I don't think IU jumps either of them...I think that would require IU to jump OSU, practically, and that isn't going to happen.

I suspect we're locked in to the 9-11 rankings, and 9-11 bracket seeding, depending on who all wins their conference championship games.

I should've also added that SMU losing to Clemson helps us as well, but not that much as the top 4 conference champs get byes regardless, and top 5 make it regardless. The idea that losing a conference championship game shouldn't hurt you should only apply to keeping you in the playoffs. If you are in the top 12 seeds after tonight's reveal, then you shouldn't drop out entirely if you lose your championship game. You should totally drop in the rankings though. If GA loses to TX, Penn St loses to Oregon, and SMU loses to Clemson, then there should 100% be a home CFP game in Bloomington for IU. However, I have zero confidence the committee would do that. I see a 1st round road game in our future no matter what happens this weekend.

 

[Bowlmania]

I see a 1st round road game in our future no matter what happens this weekend.

Agreed. But hey, at least we'll be spared the dumb posts questioning fan support (which was been EXCELLENT) and stupidly predicting only 35k will show up at MS.

 

[IUNorth]

I should've also added that SMU losing to Clemson helps us as well, but not that much as the top 4 conference champs get byes regardless, and top 5 make it regardless. The idea that losing a conference championship game shouldn't hurt you should only apply to keeping you in the playoffs. If you are in the top 12 seeds after tonight's reveal, then you shouldn't drop out entirely if you lose your championship game. You should totally drop in the rankings though. If GA loses to TX, Penn St loses to Oregon, and SMU loses to Clemson, then there should 100% be a home CFP game in Bloomington for IU. However, I have zero confidence the committee would do that. I see a 1st round road game in our future no matter what happens this weekend.

Agree totally. Not sure the committee does, but I guess we'll see what happens on that. Lots of scenarios still in play. But "most" of them have IU playing on the road in the first round, I'd say. The "worst" of the realistic outcomes would be 8/9 game, at OSU...for many reasons. The "best", other than sliding in to that 8th spot and hosting a game, would be a 6/11 type matchup at Notre Dame.

 

[kkott]

Agree totally. Not sure the committee does, but I guess we'll see what happens on that. Lots of scenarios still in play. But "most" of them have IU playing on the road in the first round, I'd say. The "worst" of the realistic outcomes would be 8/9 game, at OSU...for many reasons. The "best", other than sliding in to that 8th spot and hosting a game, would be a 6/11 type matchup at Notre Dame.

To me, it's all house money at this point. No one would've dreamed about IU being in the CFP so the fact that we are there to me is the accomplishment, and I have complete faith with Cignetti at the helm, he'll have them as ready as they can be. I certainly think we're capable of pulling an upset, but don't expect it. Likely wherever we play, we still have to face the challenges of a big time environment like we saw in Columbus. Obviously I hope it's a win, but win or lose, nothing takes away from the season they've compiled.