The debates gave us Donald Trump
- Thread starter CO. Hoosier
- Start date
So, where do you come out?
Do you seriously believe that the GOP leadership has given us Trump? Now that is so blinkered it might be blind. I think you should study up on cause and effect. Oh, "sensible world" is not an argument. Maybe the sensible world need to look at cause and effect too.
The GOP leadership has been running against government for decades. The message is anti-government all while they gain power and position. Let's use the anger! Let's build up the hate! Yup, your chosen party owns this and it very well may destroy itself.
Yeah, the Washington can't be trusted theme indeed has legs
There are hundreds of reasons for this. Some are simply emotional reactions but some are also very legit. The DOJ said the IRS was incompetent and the ARB said the State Department is. Then the ACA roll-out mess. The VA. The beat goes on. Nobody except Trump has called into question basic governmental competence. Incompetence is a real problem. And creeping governmentalism is a real thing. The US used to lead the world in economic freedom. Now it isn't in the top 10.
Don't agree
Neither Bush made running against government a big deal. Dole didn't. McCain didn't. Romney didn't. Maybe along the fringes that issue is mentioned, kinda like when Biden says the GOP wants to put you and all other blacks in chains, but that is only a fringe message, not broad theme.
I don't deny anger. But anger is a big issue all over the place. The most angry people on this board are liberals; that seems pretty clear. Hate? That is pretty dumb. Hate is a way overused and hamfisted way to say something that sounds important. People who use "hate" as a political argument can't, won't, or are too lazy to engage their brains and engage in a real discussion about the issues.
The primary debates have a huge effect; especially in this cycle
They may not influence voters directly since most of those who tune in have rooting interests and are looking for confirmation. The debates are very influential over the amount of and type of media coverage, fund raising, and perception. This all influences voters.
And the US is about #20 in personal freedom. Which goes back to the old libertarian (before they basically switched tow the GOP position) that a liberal wants to look in your wallet and a conservative in your bedroom.
Maher had a pretty good skit on Trump doing a State of the Union address.
I also thought his characteriztion of him as "Andrew Dice Trump" pretty good.
Bill Maher: New Rules
I also thought his characteriztion of him as "Andrew Dice Trump" pretty good.
Bill Maher: New Rules
Perfect. Let's blame Trump on the teachers too. And global warming ( if you believe in it). And don't forget Isis. Pretty sure it's made up of teachers.
I am not thrilled with that part of our side either. But it seems minor when you compare it to the problem of Trump. ( totally random but I might rewrite the words to What do you do with a problem like Maria from Sound of Music with words for Trump).
No room for those who disagree? The Republican Party is in open revolt, Curmudgeon. Pick a side in that if you want. But whatever else it is, it's not intellectually homogeneous.
The imminent Republican presidential nominee just uttered good words about Planned Parenthood, for chrissakes.
CO, you don't engage in real discussion. You deny the very truth that this GOP, your GOP, is facing. But that's OK with me.
I am curious, where would we be today if Trump had run as a Democrat? I believe he would have been very popular with labor (maybe not leaders but with rank and file) and possibly brought in enough outsiders who could have combined to have made him a threat.
Don't be such a liberal stereotype
You say I deny the very truth you claim to be truth. Actually I only disagree. There is no truth in this kind of discussion. But since you know that liberals are always right, you can only think in terms of denial, never in terms of disagreement. Sad.
FWIW, I am well aware of the GOP problems. And I think Cruz is a bigger problem than Trump. But that is another thread.
He'd change some of the things he's saying a little, but he'd probably do OK. He has some positions that fit over there better. He is one of those sorry "Bush lied, people died" guys. I read somewhere that he wasn't sure which nomination he'd run for and chose Republican because he thought HRC had it locked.
Good grief, Marv. Trump isn't Ike. He couldn't run in either party. He'd have been laughed off the stage in one party, so he picked the other. Sheesh!
Not sure where this is coming from. He may have had a little support, but he probably would have been out by now. There's certainly a reason he picked the party he did, and it has little to do with his ideology.
I think you're getting closer to the issue than those who simply want to blame racism or hatred, which I think it intellectually lazy. The overall problem in the GOP is that they have been running as limited government types and have been governing as "smaller big government" types. They go along with increasing the size and reach of the federal government so long as it's their spending and their priorities, and perhaps because it's at a slightly slower clip. And I think you're exactly right about the why: because they want to gain power and influence.
Now the GOP elites/establishment have a credibility and trust problem. Trump stepped into that vacuum. The closing to his last couple of debates was brilliant: you can't trust these guys and they're not going to get anything done. Do well-delivered wonkish policy proposals really resonate when nobody believes you are going to do it anyhow? I don't think so.
People believe Trump. And he feels their pain of watching their good-paying jobs move out of the country to Mexico, China, India et al. while cheap labor is moving in. And nobody has done anything about it for 25 years because they're too busy looking out for themselves and cozying up to a select group of elites. The Great Recession kicked them while they were down. Trump, Cruz, and Sanders have all tapped into this dynamic to varying degrees, but Trump is obviously doing a better job of it. And the GOP brass are still tone deaf to it all.
You guys should read this: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/30/business/donald-trump-unions.html?_r=0.
The wall would be a problem. But he could hammer protectionism as a Dem, and that would be very popular in some groups. He had a pro-choice and single-payer history, both would be popular. He is very anti Iraq War, popular. He wanted tax increases for wealthy, popular. Yes, a lot of his message would struggle, but downplaying part and upplaying part of what has been Trump would have been popular. I'm not saying he would be winning, but he would have easily beaten O'Malley and Webb. He might well be still running in second or third with 15-20%.
Well, actually racism is a BIG part of the reason the GOP is failing. Nothing intellectually lazy about it.
There's very little support for the GOP's standard small government message. People broadly support government programs that benefit them, like Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security, after which all other nondefense spending pales in significance. But some of us oppose spending that benefits Them -- the undeserving Other. This spending is trivial in the bigger scheme of things, but it can be totemically important to people who've been beaten down over time and have become embittered by our society's repeated failures to do a single damn thing for them. A guy named Barack Obama spoke about this in a widely mischaracterized speech back in 2008:
OBAMA: So, it depends on where you are, but I think it’s fair to say that the places where we are going to have to do the most work are the places where people feel most cynical about government. The people are mis-appre…I think they’re misunderstanding why the demographics in our, in this contest have broken out as they are. Because everybody just ascribes it to ‘white working-class don’t wanna work — don’t wanna vote for the black guy.’ That’s…there were intimations of that in an article in the Sunday New York Times today – kind of implies that it’s sort of a race thing.
Here’s how it is: in a lot of these communities in big industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, people have been beaten down so long, and they feel so betrayed by government, and when they hear a pitch that is premised on not being cynical about government, then a part of them just doesn’t buy it. And when it’s delivered by — it’s true that when it’s delivered by a 46-year-old black man named Barack Obama (laugher), then that adds another layer of skepticism (laughter).
But — so the questions you’re most likely to get about me, ‘Well, what is this guy going to do for me? What’s the concrete thing?’ What they wanna hear is — so, we’ll give you talking points about what we’re proposing — close tax loopholes, roll back, you know, the tax cuts for the top 1 percent. Obama’s gonna give tax breaks to middle-class folks and we’re gonna provide health care for every American. So we’ll go down a series of talking points.
But the truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there’s not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. So it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.
Um, now these are in some communities, you know. I think what you’ll find is, is that people of every background — there are gonna be a mix of people, you can go in the toughest neighborhoods, you know working-class lunch-pail folks, you’ll find Obama enthusiasts. And you can go into places where you think I’d be very strong and people will just be skeptical. The important thing is that you show up and you’re doing what you’re doing.
We should absolutely do more for the people Obama talked about -- the people that Trump now demagogically panders to. Do you know who would do the most for them? Bernie Sanders, that's who. Do you know who would do the least for them? Every single Republican presidential candidate, that's who.Here’s how it is: in a lot of these communities in big industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, people have been beaten down so long, and they feel so betrayed by government, and when they hear a pitch that is premised on not being cynical about government, then a part of them just doesn’t buy it. And when it’s delivered by — it’s true that when it’s delivered by a 46-year-old black man named Barack Obama (laugher), then that adds another layer of skepticism (laughter).
But — so the questions you’re most likely to get about me, ‘Well, what is this guy going to do for me? What’s the concrete thing?’ What they wanna hear is — so, we’ll give you talking points about what we’re proposing — close tax loopholes, roll back, you know, the tax cuts for the top 1 percent. Obama’s gonna give tax breaks to middle-class folks and we’re gonna provide health care for every American. So we’ll go down a series of talking points.
But the truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there’s not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. So it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.
Um, now these are in some communities, you know. I think what you’ll find is, is that people of every background — there are gonna be a mix of people, you can go in the toughest neighborhoods, you know working-class lunch-pail folks, you’ll find Obama enthusiasts. And you can go into places where you think I’d be very strong and people will just be skeptical. The important thing is that you show up and you’re doing what you’re doing.
Yes, because Trump voters are keenly focused on policy responses to specific issues. Once again, sheesh!
No, Marv. Trump wouldn't raise taxes on the wealthy. Trump's yuuuge tax cuts would vastly reduce the taxes the wealthy pay.
So if Trump had run as a Democrat, he could've won the Tallest Mountain in Iowa Award. Meanwhile, he's the presumptive favorite to win the GOP's nomination for President of the United States. Still searching for the equivalence, Marv.
Limited government is the goal of a conservative, not necessarily small government. Nobody's talking about getting rid of social security or Medicaid/Medicare, except to frighten and mislead people. And nobody's done a damn thing to fix it or help these people, including Obama. Trump is saying we're getting our asses kicked on free trade and he's going to do something about it. None of the other wonkish policy stuff matters to these people because it hasn't had any success in the last 25 years getting their jobs back. I'm just giving you guys fair warning when you're sitting here a few months from now like those of us in the GOP wondering WTF just happened.
There is one huge difference between the GOP nomination and the general election: whereas Republicans love Trump, Democrats and independents both despise him. He is, by far, the most unpopular candidate in either party. Unless that changes, he's going to get demolished in the general election, no matter who his opponent is.
Yep. Trump is not a problem residing broadly within our society. He is a problem residing within the dysfunctional GOP. Lots of people are angry. Lots of people are disaffected. But Trump is winning the Republican nomination, despite being broadly unpopular among the American people. Republicans who can't locate the Trump problem can't begin to fix it.
Me thinks the protesteth too much. I do not believe I said he would be running away with the Democratic race as he is the GOP. I believe, and have not looked back to confirm, I suggested he would have been a threat in a 3 way race.
Saying the earth is big is not creating an equivalency between the earth and Andromeda. There is a lot of racism in labor democrats, even more for protectionism.
The tax comment refers to Trump's plan 8 years or so ago which was a surtax on millionaires.
Trump has extremely high disapproval numbers among Democrats. If he were running, he'd get some support, I don't doubt, especially among the blue collar white union types, but I don't think he'd actually be a threat for the nomination. He'd be seen as - and actually turn out to be - the fringe non-candidate he should have been in the Republican race.
Then you clarified that he would have been a threat to irrelevant candidates, and not to either of the candidates who are actually vying for the Democratic nomination.
I protest because you are prone to centristy-sounding false equivalencies, like the one you offered. Trump would not be "interesting" in the Democratic primary process. He would be a punchline, as he should be -- but obviously isn't -- in the Republican primary process.
Yes, the Democratic Party has cranks and a fringe element. But what were once regarded as cranks and a fringe element now comprise the GOP's midstream -- as candidates like Trump abundantly illustrate. It's possible to imagine a world in which the Democratic Party was equally unhinged, but that is not the world we live in, and we shouldn't pretend otherwise.
Do you see any trends here (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating) and here (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating)? I'm not advocating for the guy, obviously. Just saying people that chalking it up to racism and being "scared of brown people" are looking at this too simplistically IMO. You guys are of course entitled to your worldview even if it is extremely offensive to some of us. We do have two Hispanics and one AA in our final five that collectively are getting over half of the GOP vote, and if we had managed to keep the field clear for the establishment candidate like the Dems did, we'd have a Hispanic nominee and likely the first Hispanic president of the US. It still may end up that way. Super Tuesday isn't the end of the road.
Settle down. You're getting upset because I said "brown people" and ascribing to me an accusation I didn't make. I didn't say Trump voters or GOP voters generally are driven by racism. Some have, but it wasn't me. All I said was that Trump's nationalistic demagoguery was largely pushed by the anti-immigrant (and more recently, anti-Arab) sentiment of some conservative talking heads who have gotten GOP voters up in a lather over the issue. Dem and Indy voters haven't been put up into that same lather, which is one reason Trump's message is falling flat with them. This is a simple claim about cause-and-effect and has nothing to do with whether or not Trump's supporters are actually "racists." It especially has nothing to do with whether or not they are more "racist" than other groups. A lot of white Democrats are just as scared of Mexican immigrant labor as white Republicans are, but they haven't spent the past decade having this fear beat into their heads over the radio, on TV, on blogs, etc.
You are overstating things a tad
Trump has yet to achieve support from even half of the GOP. He might get there but that is up for grabs.
Rove had a good segment last night on why Super Tuesday isn't going to settle the race. All of the states involved are proportional states, although some have a 20% threshold and some award delegates based on congressional districts in some way. He had his white boards showing which states were which and how many delegates they have. Trump will clearly have a good lead after Tuesday unless things change somewhat dramatically, but it won't be over by any means. I am still hopeful he underperforms a bit, the field narrows after Tuesday, and things tighten up.
Fair points. I didn't mean to ascribe positions to you that you don't hold. The people on my side get collectively called racists quite often on this forum (and elsewhere) as you know. It's tiresome, but I'll leave it at that.
As to the original point of the thread, I agree with COH that the debate format needs to be changed. I don't know if it gave us Trump, but I'd like to see different types of candidate forums that aren't aimed towards promoting network personalities, increasing ratings, causing conflict, and setting the media narrative for the week. I personally like the forums where the candidates interact with the audience. If there are going to be moderators, they should ask questions that can be answered by everyone and then everyone should get the same opportunity to answer without stupid rebuttal rules. Megyn Kelly did a really good one where the candidates all had about 20 minutes of their own time with the audience, then they would leave and the next candidate would come on. It was much more useful and informative than any debate I have seen.
It's any easy leap to make, and I don't blame you for it. I agree it's a leap those on my side often make, including on this very forum, so you have every reason to get defensive about it. I just wanted to make extra clear the narrow scope of what I was actually claiming. I think others have made very good arguments in the past that actual "racism" exists in fairly equal proportions in both parties. But I do think it's clear that the talking heads have been fomenting fear of quote-unquote "brown people" over the past few years far more among one party than the other, and that's ultimately what I blame for Trump's otherwise impossible rise.
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