Yes and no. We agree that these tax cuts were positively correlated, but my interpretation is that the coefficient was low, relatively to many other pro-bubbilicious contributors (interest rates, Fannie and Feddie underwriting changes, proliferation of MBS, etc.).
Hard to say because they all have individual and combined implications. In other words, increased oil production would seem to put pressure on prices and underlying inflation, given shipping/logistics costs can be factors in inflationary problems and ultimate collapse in demand (see prior to GFC).
Several of those are also inflationary in nature (lower taxes, higher tariffs) - so hard to weigh in collectively because of magnitude, timing differences, etc. Besides, if I knew, I'd be managing a fund.
Stock prices are a factor of two things - the underlying earnings per share and the valuation (P/E) that someone ascribes to an earnings stream. We can argue all day if stocks are overvalued because earnings haven't kept up with prices, but neither of us is right or wrong because we aren't the market. In aggregate, investors determine value and continuously reevaluate that multiple. That's the beauty of the markets.
I don't get this comment. We look at Real GDP all of the time - that's the quoted figure. EPS is also inclusive of inflation for two reasons. Either margins get compressed because input costs (material, labor) rises faster than a company can raise prices or a margins grow because it can raise prices by more or faster than its costs increase. Either way, those concepts are reflected in earnings.
This is also measured by investors, analysts, etc. Don't you remember the concern about subscriber growth with Netflix or user growth with Facebook? Everyone monitors the number of phones that Apple is selling, not just the Revenue line.
If goods get more expensive, volumes go down for producers of those goods (Target's suppliers) and retailers of those goods. We know that higher levels of inflation reduces aggregate demand. It's a mathematical and logical fact.
I assume institutional investors are doing this, which may lead them to sell a stock or value Target at less than Walmart in an inflationary environment. I don't understand why: A) you don't think this is being monitored and factored into valuations and B) why it matters vs. what real GDP growth looks like. If the economy is growing, including the impact of inflation, that's a net positive, right?
Is there a thread on missed on this topic? I'd enjoy catching up on it.