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The Chosen One’s demand to drop interest rates

Yes and no. We agree that these tax cuts were positively correlated, but my interpretation is that the coefficient was low, relatively to many other pro-bubbilicious contributors (interest rates, Fannie and Feddie underwriting changes, proliferation of MBS, etc.).




Hard to say because they all have individual and combined implications. In other words, increased oil production would seem to put pressure on prices and underlying inflation, given shipping/logistics costs can be factors in inflationary problems and ultimate collapse in demand (see prior to GFC).

Several of those are also inflationary in nature (lower taxes, higher tariffs) - so hard to weigh in collectively because of magnitude, timing differences, etc. Besides, if I knew, I'd be managing a fund.



Stock prices are a factor of two things - the underlying earnings per share and the valuation (P/E) that someone ascribes to an earnings stream. We can argue all day if stocks are overvalued because earnings haven't kept up with prices, but neither of us is right or wrong because we aren't the market. In aggregate, investors determine value and continuously reevaluate that multiple. That's the beauty of the markets.



I don't get this comment. We look at Real GDP all of the time - that's the quoted figure. EPS is also inclusive of inflation for two reasons. Either margins get compressed because input costs (material, labor) rises faster than a company can raise prices or a margins grow because it can raise prices by more or faster than its costs increase. Either way, those concepts are reflected in earnings.



This is also measured by investors, analysts, etc. Don't you remember the concern about subscriber growth with Netflix or user growth with Facebook? Everyone monitors the number of phones that Apple is selling, not just the Revenue line.

If goods get more expensive, volumes go down for producers of those goods (Target's suppliers) and retailers of those goods. We know that higher levels of inflation reduces aggregate demand. It's a mathematical and logical fact.



I assume institutional investors are doing this, which may lead them to sell a stock or value Target at less than Walmart in an inflationary environment. I don't understand why: A) you don't think this is being monitored and factored into valuations and B) why it matters vs. what real GDP growth looks like. If the economy is growing, including the impact of inflation, that's a net positive, right?



Is there a thread on missed on this topic? I'd enjoy catching up on it.
downboy-boner.gif
 
Yet you are ok with fiscal decisions being made despite pork barrel and political implications?
Hell no, I think it would be great.

I just think it’s inconceivable. But the Fed is a creation of Congress. It’s unlikely it would even happen there. But at least it’s proposing taking power out of somebody else’s hands.

Fed funds is, or should be, totally driven by data…without any favor, without any external influence such as that being exerted by DT here, etc.

I agree that fiscal policy would be better done this way, too. But I’ll never live to see the day when Congress voluntarily gives up its own power.
 
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I read and understood the argument. But I don't agree with it. It's not the intended consequences of these kinds of changes that I'm concerned about.

If we want to get healthcare costs down, without just creating new problems or exacerbating current ones, then we need to start by getting our incentive matrix in line (or at least more in line) with where it is for all other markets and industries that don't chronically suffer from high prices, tight supplies, poor quality, etc.

We've displaced it in search of a unicorn -- which is something that doesn't exist in the real world. And we've convinced ourselves that healthcare can't operate like that because we can't treat triple bypass surgeries the way we treat consumer electronics (or whatever). There is some truth to that, of course.

But, for instance, where is the connection between lifestyle choices, general wellness, and health insurance cost? We take it for granted that, for instance, smokers are going to pay higher premiums for life insurance than non-smokers. Of course they should. Why don't we follow the same logic for health insurance? Not just with smoking, but with general fitness metrics like BMI...etc.? Shouldn't somebody who is likely to incur more healthcare costs also have higher insurance premiums?

Instead, what many are trying to do is make healthcare insurance premiums a function of.....income.

I agree with much of this, but as others have argued, it could be a slippery slope. Someone with higher BMI isn't necessarily going to add higher costs than someone with genetic predisposition to expensive disease. The business person would say that perhaps we should set insurance costs based on genetic studies and healthcare assessments (think 23 and Me) that pre-identify risk.

The logical person would suggest that predisposition does not equate to certainty, and therefore, such a person is going to be detrimentally impacted because of a hypothetical.

An empathetic person, of which I have always struggled, would say this is just cruel and mean. And that's a valid argument in its own right, even for someone like me that doesn't necessarily think healthcare is a protected "right".
 
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The last 10 or so responses from crazed, jdb, digressions...............................................................................................snarl, have been the best i've read on here in a while. We should do this more often. I mean, keep the bantz going and all...

I agree with much of this, but as others have argued, it could be a slippery slope. Someone with higher BMI isn't necessarily going to add higher costs than someone with genetic predisposition to expensive disease. The business person would say that perhaps we should set insurance costs based on genetic studies and healthcare assessments (think 23 and Me) that pre-identify risk.

The logical person would suggest that predisposition does not equate to certainty, and therefore, such a person is going to be detrimentally impacted because of a hypothetical.

An empathetic person, of which I have always struggled, would say this is just cruel and mean. And that's a valid argument in its own right, even for someone like me that doesn't necessarily think healthcare is a protected "right".
It's why single payor (pick a flavor) as a shared risk pool is the only way. And we should figure it out like the national priority it is. Moon shot.
 
The last 10 or so responses from crazed, jdb, digressions...............................................................................................snarl, have been the best i've read on here in a while. We should do this more often. I mean, keep the bantz going and all...


It's why single payor (pick a flavor) as a shared risk pool is the only way. And we should figure it out like the national priority it is. Moon shot.

Meh, that's only addressing the empathetic part of what I posted. My coverage will be worse and more expensive because of others and I'm not convinced that our government can run single payer insurance effectively, particularly given the fraud and inefficiency with Medicare.
 
The idiot is you.
Studies have shown that the US Federal Reserve/CentralBank is among the very lowest in the world in independence.

Dincer & Eichengreen 2014:
Studied 4 indices of Central Bank independence for 89 countries. The US ranked 82nd, 83rd, 84th, and 87th.

Garriga 2016:
Studied 2 additional indices for 179 countries.
The US ranked 136th and 158th.

Look at Binder & Spindel 2019:
Effect of political pressure upon Fed/Central Bank decisions.

Do you EVER research even a tiny bit prior to to your invariably misinformed bloviating?

Shorter Mas

v9tQi1v.gif
 
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Meh, that's only addressing the empathetic part of what I posted. My coverage will be worse and more expensive because of others and I'm not convinced that our government can run single payer insurance effectively, particularly given the fraud and inefficiency with Medicare.
It is possible to manage something this large if left alone by bureaucracy (probably impossible). In fact, I'd try and shame Jeff Bezos (though some patriotic sense of duty) to figure it out. We lament that the reason the nut and bolts, blocking and tacking, of governemnt is inefficient and dumb and that part of that is due to that they just don't pay like the private sector.

Give tax breaks, whatever. Figure something out. I don't know exactly how but I think there's enough public/private partnership available to learn from (think DoD and their supply chains - but you know, without the bad parts).

Moon shot. This country needs something to rally around/focus on that most Americans want (the majority in polling, though slightish, favor single payor though not government run). Those numbers will likely only increase. The party that figures this out wins (along with immigration and if one did both....oofta).

 
I agree, but just because one thing is easier than the other doesn't necessarily mean that you should endorse it. An algorithm can be optimized, but it can also be influenced and I have no doubt that the influencers are going to be biased. At least the FOMC can disagree or fight back.
Sorry, JDB. I know I brought this on myself, but where should I start?
 
The last 10 or so responses from crazed, jdb, digressions...............................................................................................snarl, have been the best i've read on here in a while. We should do this more often. I mean, keep the bantz going and all...


It's why single payor (pick a flavor) as a shared risk pool is the only way. And we should figure it out like the national priority it is. Moon shot.
I’ve felt loved 3 times in life now. The one time my Dad said he loved me. When my new cat hopped on my lap and purred and now this post. Thanks buddy. Love you too. To be clear the cat just wanted food, but it still felt good.
 
You’re just arguing for even harsher price controls. It won’t solve the issue.
You're absolutely f'n clueless.

...J.k., SC, thought it would be fun for this to be the next post.

But really, on this subject, that was the dumbest post that could have possibly been posted. Catch up and do better. I kid. Kinda.
 
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I agree with much of this, but as others have argued, it could be a slippery slope. Someone with higher BMI isn't necessarily going to add higher costs than someone with genetic predisposition to expensive disease. The business person would say that perhaps we should set insurance costs based on genetic studies and healthcare assessments (think 23 and Me) that pre-identify risk.

The logical person would suggest that predisposition does not equate to certainty, and therefore, such a person is going to be detrimentally impacted because of a hypothetical.

An empathetic person, of which I have always struggled, would say this is just cruel and mean. And that's a valid argument in its own right, even for someone like me that doesn't necessarily think healthcare is a protected "right".
Whether we think it’s a right or not isn’t of much consequence.

It can’t be -
It is possible to manage something this large if left alone by bureaucracy (probably impossible). In fact, I'd try and shame Jeff Bezos (though some patriotic sense of duty) to figure it out. We lament that the reason the nut and bolts, blocking and tacking, of governemnt is inefficient and dumb and that part of that is due to that they just don't pay like the private sector.

Give tax breaks, whatever. Figure something out. I don't know exactly how but I think there's enough public/private partnership available to learn from (think DoD and their supply chains - but you know, without the bad parts).

Moon shot. This country needs something to rally around/focus on that most Americans want (the majority in polling, though slightish, favor single payor though not government run). Those numbers will likely only increase. The party that figures this out wins (along with immigration and if one did both....oofta).


I’ve said this before. But I really think that Singapore offers something to look at.

I have some misgivings about it. But they seem to have hit a sweet spot between access, cost, and quality. They utilize incentives better than most and most transactions are made directly between consumer and provider, without any third party payer.

Everybody has an HSA, the accounts are subsidized for those with low income, insurance only kicks in for major expenses (it is single-payer).
 
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Whether we think it’s a right or not isn’t of much consequence.

It can’t be -


I’ve said this before. But I really think that Singapore offers something to look at.

I have some misgivings about it. But they seem to have hit a sweet spot between access, cost, and quality. They utilize incentives better than most and most transactions are made directly between consumer and provider, without any third party payer.

Everybody has an HSA, the accounts are subsidized for those with low income, insurance only kicks in for major expenses (it is single-payer).
I’m agnostic on the solution but bullish that today’s scheme is too imperfect.
 
I’m agnostic on the solution but bullish that today’s scheme is too imperfect.
Well, this is why many of us were saying that Obamacare was, at best, not a solution.

But I assure you: it can get worse than what we have now. And it wouldn’t surprise me if it does.

I hate to sound like a broken record. But search the board for my link to the story about Vermont. They thought they were going to help matters with their reforms. They tried to do single payer at first. But that was a bridge too far, money-wise. So they settled on what they have.

The results have been horrible and are headed towards something even worse. Their biggest insurer is nearly bankrupt and 9 of the 14 hospitals in the state are losing money. You can only lose money for so long.

We need to stop hunting that unicorn. All we’ll find is an ornery alligator.
 
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You're absolutely f'n clueless.

...J.k., SC, thought it would be fun for this to be the next post.

But really, on this subject, that was the dumbest post that could have possibly been posted. Catch up and do better. I kid. Kinda.
No worries. It doesn’t hurt my feelings. I’m right. There are three ways to bring down healthcare costs. 1. Get on a Bitcoin Standard. 2. Get government out healthcare 3. Major gains in innovation (semaglutide will help drastically in cutting costs).
 
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Well, this is why many of us were saying that Obamacare was, at best, not a solution.

But I assure you: it can get worse than what we have now. And it wouldn’t surprise me if it does.

I hate to sound like a broken record. But search the board for my link to the story about Vermont. They thought they were going to help matters with their reforms. They tried to do single payer at first. But that was a bridge too far, money-wise. So they settled on what they have.

The results have been horrible and are headed towards something even worse. Their biggest insurer is nearly bankrupt and 9 of the 14 hospitals in the state are losing money. You can only lose money for so long.

We need to stop hunting that unicorn. All we’ll find is an ornery alligator.
I like incentives but they can be hard to communicate. There’s no way something like a single payer or HSA/thrift acct scheme would be cheap initially. So we’d need to have the discipline as a public body to see out the pain. If this is to be incentive based, those incentives should only serve to better health outcome and thus drive down cost. But that’s 20 years out. I don’t see how anybody could argue otherwise without draconian measures. However, introducing a change like single payer or an HSA Plan, I think markets would adjust over that period of time. Some new economy would emerge. Never discount somebody’s ability to make a buck off a thing in America.

The above would require tremendous political capital. And it really ****ing sucks that we’re so polarized now that we can’t agree on a single goddamn thing as a nation. It’s not sustainable and every election cycle we keep this up just diminishes our future.
 
No worries. It doesn’t hurt my feelings. I’m right. There are three ways to bring down healthcare costs. 1. Get on a Bitcoin Standard. 2. Get government out healthcare 3. Major gains in innovation (semaglutide will help drastically in cutting costs).
There are many ways to bring down healthcare costs. You should go read the last thread and get up to speed. Especially the early links.

Your reply about harsher price controls is non-responsive. The healthcare industry has enjoyed 60 years of compounded interest. The percent of GDP has increased at an increasing rate. It's been baked in.

If someone is interested in solving the healthcare dilemma that threatens our solvency, they should first answer a simple question: How are prices for healthcare services obtained?

Please don't reply until you have the answer.
 
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But why do you think my proposal wouldn't work specifically?

I will try to finish crunching the numbers, but guessing:

2.5T reduction in debt from 2014-2024
7T reduction over next 10 years
5T tax cut equivalent from 14-24
10T tax cut equivalent next 10 years.

Why specifically?

What is your proposal exactly?
 
No worries. It doesn’t hurt my feelings. I’m right. There are three ways to bring down healthcare costs. 1. Get on a Bitcoin Standard. 2. Get government out healthcare 3. Major gains in innovation (semaglutide will help drastically in cutting costs).
Also, the reason you're full of shit and non-responsive is that we’ve been doing healthcare for 60 years without the help of any of those things. It must be something else. Go find it.
 
If someone is interested in solving the healthcare dilemma that threatens our solvency, they should first answer a simple question: How are prices for healthcare services obtained?

I know you aren't a Trump fan, but were you a supporter of his transparency proposal that was enacted, but never enforced?
 
Apparently, it's a lot more complicated and tedious than I anticipated.

Edit: How are healthcare costs priced?
Set cost of a service based on complexity etc, negotiated amount or discount between health insurer and provider, and out of pocket of patient generally
 
Set cost of a service based on complexity etc, negotiated amount or discount between health insurer and provider, and out of pocket of patient generally
Somewhat, but not really. Look it up and get back to me.

Edit: This has probably been the best non-Google answer.
 
Whether we think it’s a right or not isn’t of much consequence.

It can’t be -


I’ve said this before. But I really think that Singapore offers something to look at.

I have some misgivings about it. But they seem to have hit a sweet spot between access, cost, and quality. They utilize incentives better than most and most transactions are made directly between consumer and provider, without any third party payer.

Everybody has an HSA, the accounts are subsidized for those with low income, insurance only kicks in for major expenses (it is single-payer).

Pragmatically, the issue is that you cannot apply a model that works well in Singapore to the United States.
 
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I'm a farmer. You know that.

But your answer was incomplete and vague (at least the way I read it).

What parties are negotiating, initially?

Key word: initially.
I don’t know that. I’ve sued zimmer, Stryker, and 25 other medical device manufacturers. Sued doctors, physician groups, hospitals, and health insurance companies. Reviewed tens of thousands of medical records. Negotiated countless liens with cms and providers. Dug in. You want a simple answer to how services are priced when it isn’t simple bc there are so many factors that influence same. The answer i gave you is THE answer
 
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They play a role. They buy and lease med equipment. Have malpractice coverage. Overhead. Etc. That plays part of their costs and attendant pricing
They do play a role. I agree.

I don’t know that. I’ve sued zimmer, Stryker, and 25 other medical device manufacturers. Sued doctors, physician groups, hospitals, and health insurance companies. Reviewed tens of thousands of medical records. Negotiated countless liens with cms and providers. Dug in. You want a simple answer to how services are priced when it isn’t simple bc there are so many factors that influence same. The answer i gave you is THE answer
I believe all of this. No doubt about it.

How is the '26 price going to be different than the '25 price, for the same service?
 
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