If they get to a bowl this year I’m not sure the $7.9 Mil number would still apply in 2024. Unless Dolson changed the buyout language in the 2021 contract, I think another extension this winter could potentially make the 2024 buyout $20.8 million again if that season effectively becomes “season three” of Allen’s newest contract.
If it did become the new “season three” then that could mean that IU might still be on the hook for 100% of the remaining 4 years of Allen’s newest contract, and the buyout might not drop to $7.9 Mil until December of 2025 if the ‘25 season was now treated as “season four” of the new contract.
I bring this up because something similar appears to be what happened in 2021. In order for the current buyout to be $20.8 Mil, dropping to $7.9 Mil next.year, 2023 is presumably regarded as “season three” of the current contract, at least in terms of the buyout. But that also suggests that the 2021 extension Allen received moved the buyout “clock” or timeline back a year. Otherwise this season would be “season four” of the original 2019 contract that was automatically extended in 2021, and the buyout next month (hypothetically) might be about $10-$10.5 Mil instead of $20.8 million.
And we all should probably keep in mind that these numbers don’t factor in the possibility of Allen, in addition to obtaining another extension, being given another raise, which would of course make all the numbers even larger and more expensive.