Some rough numbers for our transfers, in games against "high majors"

Maybe. We paid $8M for Woodson to leave, then I think $3M/yr base for DeVries (?), and reportedly $10M (so far) for the players. So to now be in "managing expectations" mode is a little disappointing.
My own outlook could be described more as voicing opinions as I'm taking in more and more information. I certainly don't "expect" IU to have a losing record. I also don't expect CDD to have a Pat Kelsey like first year.

Its nice to have the money for this process. But quite obviously having the money doesn't ensure success. Calipari very nearly, and maybe should have, missed the NCAA tournament last year. We all know what the money got us from Woodson. On the flip side, Todd Golden and Kelvin Sampson beat everyone's asses with what I'd guess were middle of the road NIL budget teams last year.

If we have the actual right coach this time, a guy that's going to stick at IU for a long time, and build a program that has a good culture... then him having the money will be an important variable, but far from the most important variable in his success.

I'm coming around to the thought that Dolson could have hired a guy like Will Wade, maybe even Beard, and had more immediate success. But with basically all of those guys came the risk of losing them to NBA, Kansas/Kentucky like programs, or just from off the court crap that might come up... He reportedly zeroed in on guys like DeVries and McCollum. Those guys are actual program and culture builders, it appears. And both are regarded as one of the smartest basketball minds in the game.

We'll see how it all shakes out. I hope CDD has enough successes early on, that the fanbase can buy in to it. Compared to where we've been for quite a long time, I have a very strong feeling we have a guy that can get us back to where some of us remember IU being.
 
8 BT teams have legit 7's, 1 team has a 7'-4" guy, two teams have 7'-3" dudes, several teams have a couple of good 7's. A lot of these teams have high quality Bigs, IU has one dude at 6'-10" with no backup, almost all the BT teams have multiple 6'-10" plus dudes. BT teams are going to pound it down low against IU, rebounding might be a major issue, it might get ugly in some games. That was Purdues problem last year, 6'-9" center with little bench, and he was a 3rd team All-American, but rebounding cost them!
I still have nightmares from the days where we were starting Sean Kline and AJ Moye down low with Ewing Jr being the only 'big' coming off the bench. Hopefully it won't be nearly that bad.
 
it's not just rebounding, and yes, some guys who are "undersized" are good rebounders, but in general bigger is better, and especially so in protecting the paint, rim protection and defending other teams 5s. We're undersized, no matter how you try and slice or justify it. Can we work around it? Possibly. Can it be our undoing, especially if you were to factor in foul or injury problems? Definitely.
 
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it's not just rebounding, and yes, some guys who are "undersized" are good rebounders, but in general bigger is better, and especially so in protecting the paint, rim protection and defending other teams 5s. We're undersized, no matter how you try and slice or justify it. Can we work around it? Possibly. Can it be our undoing, especially if you were to factor in foul or injury problems? Definitely.
That is a real possibility, but it isn't a fact. The game is changing. We potentially have decent size and length in positions 1-4. And there are more and more examples, every year, of college and NBA teams thriving without a traditional "big" man.

We keep going back and forth on this... and I'm sure we're more on the same page than it seems. I'd LOVE to have gotten someone like Chinleyu or Tugler, and hope that we still do. But I don't, in any way, think he needs to get someone like Dallas James or Michael Durr. There are negative side effects to having guys that aren't gonna play, and don't fit how you want to practice and play. And with the big man market being constricted this year, and bigs generally being overpriced as it is, I'm not overly worried that he hasn't gotten another one yet.
 
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Todd Golden's record at Florida is 76-33 over his three seasons as head coach. He led the Gators to a 36-4 record and a national championship in his third season, 2024-25.

Here's a breakdown of his record:

  • 2022-23: 16-17
  • 2023-24: 24-12
  • 2024-25: 36-4

Clear progress. It took him 3 seasons to win a national title. Some people wanted Woody to have more time and we were fighting for our tournament lives most every season.
 
That is a real possibility, but it isn't a fact. The game is changing. We potentially have decent size and length in positions 1-4. And there are more and more examples, every year, of college and NBA teams thriving without a traditional "big" man.

We keep going back and forth on this... and I'm sure we're more on the same page than it seems. I'd LOVE to have gotten someone like Chinleyu or Tugler, and hope that we still do. But I don't, in any way, think he needs to get someone like Dallas James or Michael Durr. There are negative side effects to having guys that aren't gonna play, and don't fit how you want to practice and play. And with the big man market being constricted this year, and bigs generally being overpriced as it is, I'm not overly worried that he hasn't gotten another one yet.
I agree, and am not faulting him, because he had to deal with factors as they are (smaller pool of 5s, skyrocketing NIL, having to fill a complete roster, 1st year, etc...). I'm just pointing out that it's a potential weakness. I hope in most years that we recruit a full roster, including depth and that we don't run lean at positions because it's not how he "likes to play". Something I thought plagued CTC throughout his tenure.
 
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I agree, and am not faulting him, because he had to deal with factors as they are (smaller pool of 5s, skyrocketing NIL, having to fill a complete roster, 1st year, etc...). I'm just pointing out that it's a potential weakness. I hope in most years that we recruit a full roster, including depth and that we don't run lean at positions because it's not how he "likes to play". Something I thought plagued CTC throughout his tenure.
For sure. Long term, IU should strive be one of the big boys. And maybe that should have started immediately? Maybe he should have "spent more" or "reached more" for guys like Bidunga, Federico, Curtis, etc...? But I'm sure he's working to instill the right approaches and mentalities. I think getting Johnson and Clark is a very clear indicator that CDD, and IU, fully intend to become players with NBA level players. But to actually win Natty's, you gotta build the culture and program first. Its about as proven as something could be. Hurley did it at UConn, Golden at Florida... basically all Natty teams in...forever really... had a good blend of NBA talent and "program" guys that had experience in the program. Kelsey had a good year at LVille, guys like Otz and even Pope, have had success rebuilding their rosters, basically every year...but they haven't won Natty's. We'll see what Kelsey does at Louisville...if Pope 2nd team ends up being Final Four good... But we KNOW what Hurley and Golden did after establishing their culture for a couple years.

As of now, he has 4 guys that could come back next year, each of them different positions. And I have to assume all of them are guys he feels will get Indiana basketball's culture and style off on the right foot, and in the right direction. Hoping for another big, somehow, that would also have multiple years left, coming to fruition this summer.

But 100 percent, he needs elite bigs, elite wings, and elite lead guards... This team probably has a few elite wings and lead guards, but its more questionable on the bigs side. Alexis could become that? Bailey is pretty skilled, and could play a very important role as the modern "pinch post" style big. Harris is younger, and flashed some moments of brilliance his freshman year.
 
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@IUNorth Here's the comparison of DePaul's players from the year before against high majors. As a group they didn't play as many as IU's group. Of course, we're talking about small numbers either way, but also in IU's group are kids who put up big numbers, which no one from DePaul really did. Small pieces of information but at least they're positive.

I think I said 5 to 7 conference wins. I don't see any reason to peel off that, but 7 is where I'd land right now. After reading your numbers and my numbers I think IU's group is better, but I just keep thinking of how hard the Big 10 is compared to the Big East. I'm still leery of the step up in competition and, more to the point, the consistency of performance against that competition. Kids can play "up" once or twice but the issues come when asked to do it repeatedly - or consistently. That's why they're subs or playing a level down, etc. Just my opinion.

In any case, my prediction is based off of only a half complete data set. It'll be fun to get IU's data in there and compare.

David Skogman (6'10")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
Maryland26981102
Clemson23831002
St. Mary's27930001
7626142105
25.38.74.70.70.30.01.7
DePaul17.66.45.11.20.30.30.9
Isaiah Rivera (6'5")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
Cincinnatti25831113
DePaul27.710.84.11.30.40.91.3
Jacob Meyer (6'2")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
DePaul19.48.92.60.70.10.70.6
NJ Benson (6'8")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
West Virginia13042101
St. Mary's20242203
33284304
16.51.04.02.01.50.02.0
DePaul21.99.06.20.91.40.41.4
Troy D'Amico (6'7")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
Oklahoma State25232201
DePaul26.56.12.71.70.40.31.0
Connor Enright (6'0")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
Washington State33415010
DePaul30.07.53.36.20.00.73.1
David Thomas (6'2")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
Alabama20720000
Georgia221132010
421852010
21.09.02.51.00.00.50.0
DePaul15.14.02.01.40.20.51.4
 
This is against high major teams, this past season only, as an attempt to get a glimpse on how they might translate to the step up in competition level. IU will play plenty of schools that are not "high major", so one could make some further conclusions that these numbers could get better. But with most of them, its a pretty small sample size of games.

One of the bigger question marks currently, however, is what will our roster of mid major all stars do against B10 competition? Small glimpse here. And obviously there are deeper analytics that could be looked at. Including some defensive measurements that are obviously applicable as well. Conerway's numbers, as an example, don't seem glowing on the offensive end. But one of his bigger contributions, I suspect, will be how good of a lead guard defender he is. Guys like Lamont Butler, Jackson Shelstead, and DJ Wagner... all had ZERO points aganst Troy...as an example.

Conerway (4 games): 7.5 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game, 4 assists per game, 3 turnovers per game
Wilkerson (4 games): 17.3 points per game, 2.3 rebounds per game, 3 assists per game, 2.7 turnovers per game
Bailey (3 games): 15.3 points per game, 6.7 rebounds per game, 3 assists per game, 1.7 turnovers per game
Dorn (2 games): 20.5 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game, 1.5 assists per game, 1 turnover per game
Miles (5 games): 11.8 points per game, 6.2 rebounds per game, 1.6 assists per game, 1.2 turnovers per game
Harris (4 games): 11.5 points per game, 5 rebounds per game, 0.25 assists per game, 1.5 turnovers per game

Drake didn't really have any games against high major teams.
DeVries, Enright, and Alexis were in high major conferences.

Enright notes though: He had some very productive games against some of the better teams on DePaul's schedule, 18 and 9 against UConn as an example. A couple near 10 assist games in other bigger matchups.

DeVries was very good in the Bahamas. And while Drake didn't really play many high majors while he was there, he often had monster games against the best Valley teams.

Alexis had some decent games early on before his injuries, and the year before at Chattanooga, averaged roughly 12 and 8 against the couple high major teams he played against.

Some other takeaways...

The rebounding numbers jumped out at me. Many are worried about a lack of rim protection, and post depth. I am as well, don't get me wrong, but not nearly as worried as some. One big reason for that is it appears we're going to have active rebounding from every position, a lot of the time.

We're going to have a lot of guys capable of scoring. When's the last time IU had a team like that? None of Woody's teams, obviously. Probably back to 2016 team and the Zeller teams?

I was at the Under Armour circuit event this past weekend. And I was reminded how beautiful and exciting the game of basketball is when you have a team filled with guys that are capable shooters and scorers, that are also willing passers. Indiana will have some limitations on how good they can be. With big question marks on their overall defensive capabilities, and then rim protection. But man, I'm getting more and more excited about what they could look like.
Very difficult to predict where this team will land. The whole sum of the parts vs the individual parts discussion. They could be dramatically better or worse, but that is the job of the coach to maximize the parts he has and DDV has shown he does a darn good job there. My expectation is that we will be a good to very good team. A stronger inside presence is what I think limits us today. But there is still time to address that!
 
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Almost all BT teams have 3 or 4 6'9" bigs, except IU.

I'm not sure Cluff is going to start, would not be surprised if Jacobsen (7'4") starts. 6'-11" Cluff was the second leading rebounder in the country last year, but DJ is a better athlete. 6'-11" Burgess will be the backup. Most teams will guard the 3-point line against IU, forcing IU to the interior. Defense is going to be the major problem for IU, rebounding and foul trouble.

That's why getting Jacobsen back and adding Cluff is hugh for Purdue, Purdue was #121 in offensive rebounding last year, plus #173 in defensive rebounding, losing DJ last year cost Purdue 5 or 6 games. With the two bigs Purdue's interior defense will improve dramatically, and rebounding should be one of best in the country. DJ being 7'-4" moves really good, better than 7'-4" Edey, if DJ stays healthy he will be one of the top shot blockers in the country. Cluff was second in the NCAA in rebounds last year.
Houston didn't play a single player over 6'8 last year and lead the country in defensive efficiency and rebounding.

Similarly, West Virginia didn't start a single player over 6'8 this last season and played one guy in total off the bench taller than 6'8. They were 15th in defensive efficiency. I think DeVries knows what he's doing.
 
@IUNorth Here's the comparison of DePaul's players from the year before against high majors. As a group they didn't play as many as IU's group. Of course, we're talking about small numbers either way, but also in IU's group are kids who put up big numbers, which no one from DePaul really did. Small pieces of information but at least they're positive.

I think I said 5 to 7 conference wins. I don't see any reason to peel off that, but 7 is where I'd land right now. After reading your numbers and my numbers I think IU's group is better, but I just keep thinking of how hard the Big 10 is compared to the Big East. I'm still leery of the step up in competition and, more to the point, the consistency of performance against that competition. Kids can play "up" once or twice but the issues come when asked to do it repeatedly - or consistently. That's why they're subs or playing a level down, etc. Just my opinion.

In any case, my prediction is based off of only a half complete data set. It'll be fun to get IU's data in there and compare.

David Skogman (6'10")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
Maryland26981102
Clemson23831002
St. Mary's27930001
7626142105
25.38.74.70.70.30.01.7
DePaul17.66.45.11.20.30.30.9
Isaiah Rivera (6'5")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
Cincinnatti25831113
DePaul27.710.84.11.30.40.91.3
Jacob Meyer (6'2")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
DePaul19.48.92.60.70.10.70.6
NJ Benson (6'8")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
West Virginia13042101
St. Mary's20242203
33284304
16.51.04.02.01.50.02.0
DePaul21.99.06.20.91.40.41.4
Troy D'Amico (6'7")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
Oklahoma State25232201
DePaul26.56.12.71.70.40.31.0
Connor Enright (6'0")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
Washington State33415010
DePaul30.07.53.36.20.00.73.1
David Thomas (6'2")MPPTSREBASTBLKSSTLSTO
Alabama20720000
Georgia221132010
421852010
21.09.02.51.00.00.50.0
DePaul15.14.02.01.40.20.51.4
Very interesting, thanks for taking the time and posting!

It seems like DeVries, Wilkerson, I believe Conerway, and maybe Bailey, are a different caliber player than the DePaul low/mid major transfers were. If that's even remotely true, that's enough to tip the scales quite a lot. But the perspective your information gives is very strong, and does temper my enthusiasm. Which is fine, I'm just digesting information, facts, opinions, like everyone else.

The source for more optimism then still comes from program like Iowa State, even Auburn, that have thrived in recent years with predominately smaller school transfers. So it can happen. I guess we'll just have to wait and see?! Lots of time between now and November though.
 
Seyton's post about DePaul's experiences last year, combined with how slow out of the gate a guy like Todd Golden was at Florida, definitely has put a governor on how good I think IU can be in CDD's first season. But there are countless examples, every year, of low/mid major guys stepping up in competition level, and continuing to thrive. If we get a few of those guys to do that, and Tucker stays healthy, I suspect CDD's first team will outperform what many of the pundits are predicting for them.
DePaul didn't bring in anywhere near the mid-major level talent that IU did.

DeVries 2x MVC POY
Conerway Sun Belt POY
Lamar Wilkerson 2x 1st All-Conference
Reed Bailey 1st team All-Conference
 
DePaul didn't bring in anywhere near the mid-major level talent that IU did.

DeVries 2x MVC POY
Conerway Sun Belt POY
Lamar Wilkerson 2x 1st All-Conference
Reed Bailey 1st team All-Conference
Yeah, kind of what I was eluding to in my latest response to Seyton. And the stats we're both using don't capture enough information either. Not all low/mid major guys are created equal, even if they have similar stats. It seems like they got a bunch of guys more on the Jason Drake level, maybe Josh Harris. And many of the guys that IU got are quite a lot more accomplished, more proven, and just better...THE actual best players in their conferences and/or on their teams. Whereas DePaul just got solid contributors from lower levels.

But...the combo of Holtman, a conference that is probably easier than what DeVries will face this year in the B10... with some of the anecdotal and stat information Seyton provided... it does offer a governor or sorts on my optimism level.
 
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DePaul didn't bring in anywhere near the mid-major level talent that IU did.

DeVries 2x MVC POY
Conerway Sun Belt POY
Lamar Wilkerson 2x 1st All-Conference
Reed Bailey 1st team All-Conference

Good information. The accolades are much better and I think that counts for a lot. The numbers weren't too different, though, but a little better for IU.

Just trying to piece together all the information we can get to analyze. It's a fun exercise.
 
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But 100 percent, he needs elite bigs,
Florida didn't have elite bigs. UConn 24 is the exception with a so. Clingan. UConn 23 had 1, as a fr. he wasn't a focus. Kansas 22 had 1 good big. Baylor 21 didn't have elite bigs. Virginia 19 didn't have elite bigs. Nova 18 didn't have elite bigs.

Teams with elite bigs in this era haven't won championships. They all eventually lost. Elite bigs and championships: Edey 0, TJD 0, Timme 0. Dickheadson 0, Flipowski 0, Cockburn 0. Garza 0. Ayton 0.

All champions had triple threat perimeter players as prime focus. Power post players are now over expensive run killing dinosaurs. 30 sec clock changed the game. Skills, mobility and quickness >>>>>> power.
 
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it's not just rebounding, and yes, some guys who are "undersized" are good rebounders, but in general bigger is better, and especially so in protecting the paint, rim protection and defending other teams 5s. We're undersized, no matter how you try and slice or justify it. Can we work around it? Possibly. Can it be our undoing, especially if you were to factor in foul or injury problems? Definitely.
Bailey is a 4 ya? Seems like Alexis will play 5? Who are the 5 options on our team besides those two?
 
Bailey is a 4 ya? Seems like Alexis will play 5?
I don't see it ... one starts, the other is a reserve. 70% of Baileys FGA were at the rim, he's more likely a 5.

Conerway, Wilkerson, Dorn, Devries. 1>4
 
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I don't see it ... one starts, the other is a reserve. 70% of Baileys FGA were at the rim, he's more likely a 5.

Conerway, Wilkerson, Dunn, Devries. 1>4
I don’t know about Dunn, but the other 3 for sure should be studs.

And I’m not saying those two play together. I’m just saying they are the only 2 that can play the 5. Or am i missing someone?
 
I don’t know about Dunn, but the other 3 for sure should be studs.

And I’m not saying those two play together. I’m just saying they are the only 2 that can play the 5. Or am i missing someone?
an undersized Josh Harris? 6'8 220 played 4 and 5 at N.Florida.

I think it's safe to assume we'll be playing 5 out sets.
 
an undersized Josh Harris? 6'8 220 played 4 and 5 at N.Florida.

I think it's safe to assume we'll be playing 5 out sets.

I gotcha. We will see if that guy can even be on the floor in the big ten. I have serious questions about everyone not in that big 3 of Wilkerson Conerway and Devries. Need to see em lace em up. Thank god not woody.
 
I gotcha. We will see if that guy can even be on the floor in the big ten. I have serious questions about everyone not in that big 3 of Wilkerson Conerway and Devries. Need to see em lace em up. Thank god not woody.
Bailey should probably be in that list. 26 conference PER, 22 per 40, 1.1 per possession in the A10 isn't bad.
 
My guess is an all senior starting lineup of:

Alexis
Bailey
DeVries
Wilkerson
Conerway

With a bench unit of:

Harris
Sisley
Dorn
Miles
Enright/Drake

We may even see a Woody style hockey line substitution pattern at times.
 
I still have nightmares from the days where we were starting Sean Kline and AJ Moye down low with Ewing Jr being the only 'big' coming off the bench. Hopefully it won't be nearly that bad.
Hopefully, the "all-you can-eat wings" special is over.....and one or two bigs will end up on the roster. Years ago, I recall a "donut" roster I think about the time Kirk Haston was playing....can't recall exactly when...but it was a topic of conversation...where there was literally no big, and IU really struggled against the Big 10 competition. I am getting reminded of that.
 
Florida didn't have elite bigs. UConn 24 is the exception with a so. Clingan. UConn 23 had 1, as a fr. he wasn't a focus. Kansas 22 had 1 good big. Baylor 21 didn't have elite bigs. Virginia 19 didn't have elite bigs. Nova 18 didn't have elite bigs.
Florida had some pretty good BIGS, in fact IU just picked up one of their bench bigs, Alexis, and he could not find playing time in Florida, but probably will start for IU!
Teams with elite bigs in this era haven't won championships. They all eventually lost. Elite bigs and championships: Edey 0, TJD 0, Timme 0. Dickheadson 0, Flipowski 0, Cockburn 0. Garza 0. Ayton 0.
You just said above that Clingan for UCONN won, and then said no bigs in this ERA has won any NCAAT. The last time IU was good was when they had a player named Zeller!
All champions had triple threat perimeter players as prime focus. Power post players are now over expensive run killing dinosaurs. 30 sec clock changed the game. Skills, mobility and quickness >>>>>> power.
IU has very few triple threat players, Conerway is a good penetrator, but can't shoot the 3(27%), DeVries can shoot the three, but is poor inside the arc. Wilkerson can shoot but is not the greatest athlete. and most of IU's players are not know for playing defense. SKILL level? Not a whole lot of NBA talent on this team which usually = SKILL.
 
Florida didn't have elite bigs. UConn 24 is the exception with a so. Clingan. UConn 23 had 1, as a fr. he wasn't a focus. Kansas 22 had 1 good big. Baylor 21 didn't have elite bigs. Virginia 19 didn't have elite bigs. Nova 18 didn't have elite bigs.

Teams with elite bigs in this era haven't won championships. They all eventually lost. Elite bigs and championships: Edey 0, TJD 0, Timme 0. Dickheadson 0, Flipowski 0, Cockburn 0. Garza 0. Ayton 0.

All champions had triple threat perimeter players as prime focus. Power post players are now over expensive run killing dinosaurs. 30 sec clock changed the game. Skills, mobility and quickness >>>>>> power.
Probably would have to argue through what constitutes an "elite big". I'd say Florida's 3 main bigs were pretty darn good. And maybe IU's will be as well?! You're right though that teams that focus on, and run things primarily through the post/good bigs, have a ceiling these days.

I'm not nearly as worried about the big situation as some are. But I do think we're a little unproven, and maybe thin...on our backline.
 
Florida had some pretty good BIGS, in fact IU just picked up one of their bench bigs, Alexis, and he could not find playing time in Florida, but probably will start for IU!

You just said above that Clingan for UCONN won, and then said no bigs in this ERA has won any NCAAT. The last time IU was good was when they had a player named Zeller!

IU has very few triple threat players, Conerway is a good penetrator, but can't shoot the 3(27%), DeVries can shoot the three, but is poor inside the arc. Wilkerson can shoot but is not the greatest athlete. and most of IU's players are not know for playing defense. SKILL level? Not a whole lot of NBA talent on this team which usually = SKILL.
Alexis played a fair bit early on in the year, then got injured. Then Handlogten got healthy, and decided to burn his redshirt. Haugh also emerged at that time. Zero shame in what happened to Alexis. He would have been a main rotation big for 99% of college teams, when healthy. Would have started for Purdue all year last year, as an example.

The 16' team was pretty good. And the 23 team wasn't great, but good enough to sweep your perennially overrated bunch. And one of the reasons for that was your slow, mountain of a big being awful at guarding the pick and roll...and IU taking full advantage of it...just like the Cinderellas did during that fun stretch of years.

The answer to the last assertion is above your head, I'm sure. They all have shown a willingness to score at multiple levels, and are willing and capable passers. You obviously know nothing about DeVries. As for the NBA...Purdue might not have a single NBA prospect on their team...except maybe the big that Painter is going to bury on the bench this year for longer than he should.
 
I like DeVries but I really think there's going to be a lot of "what ifs" over the next 20 years. Most incompetent administration of all time.

 
Hopefully, the "all-you can-eat wings" special is over.....and one or two bigs will end up on the roster. Years ago, I recall a "donut" roster I think about the time Kirk Haston was playing....can't recall exactly when...but it was a topic of conversation...where there was literally no big, and IU really struggled against the Big 10 competition. I am getting reminded of that.
Game has changed.