Apologies for starting a seperate thread, but this doesn't really fit in with the Harris/Trump thread. I know DBM is a fan of "leaked" internals, so I thought it might be interesting to some to see what the organization charged with capturing the Senate for the GOP is seeing in their internal polling. It tracks from Aug to Oct, so you can see the shift which they view either negatively or positively how the race has evolved...
This might be interesting to fellow political junkies like myself because they don't just give the raw numbers. They actually add an analysis of what in their view has happened and why. There is one huge surprise (in addition to the SLF's own internal polling showing Brown up 6 in Ohio) and that is the race in Texas. Notice how they blame Cruz's problems on being outspent and facing a barrage of ads from Allred...
It's a little hard to read since trying to paste tables is not in my wheelhouse.
TEXAS SLF Internal Poll/The Tarrance GroupOct Mid-SeptCruz Fav/Unfav: 49/48 49/47Allred Fav/Unfav: 48/36 40/28Generic Senate Ballot | GOP vs. DEM: 52/43 49/45Pres Ballot | Trump vs Harris/Biden: 50/45 50/46Senate Ballot | Cruz/Allred: 48/47 47/44
TEXAS POLLING NOTES
"Beginning in early August, Colin Allred has been heavily outspending Ted Cruz on TV, closingup the multicandidate ballot to a single point. GOP outside groups (including a dedicated Cruzsuper PAC) joined the fray in late September and narrowed Allred’s spending advantage. We are carefully monitoring additional media placements and will have fresh polling numbers here next week..."
The main takeaway from a Dem standpoint is that in one month (Sept) until Oct they show the race going from 47-44 Cruz, to now showing Cruz only up 48-47. This is a race where favorability could tell the tale because Cruz is at 49-48 compared to Allred's 48-36.
This is a 5 page memo going into great depth about the numbers in all the contested Senate races...They weren't polling Nebraska previously, but the memo mentions that they are in the process of doing so because Fischer's issues seem to have crept up on them.The largets lead they show for Pubs in states that will decide the Senate is Tester down 4 to Sheehy the non-native Montanan who has told a variety of stories about how he got shot in a parking lot at a National Park...
This might be interesting to fellow political junkies like myself because they don't just give the raw numbers. They actually add an analysis of what in their view has happened and why. There is one huge surprise (in addition to the SLF's own internal polling showing Brown up 6 in Ohio) and that is the race in Texas. Notice how they blame Cruz's problems on being outspent and facing a barrage of ads from Allred...
It's a little hard to read since trying to paste tables is not in my wheelhouse.
TEXAS SLF Internal Poll/The Tarrance GroupOct Mid-SeptCruz Fav/Unfav: 49/48 49/47Allred Fav/Unfav: 48/36 40/28Generic Senate Ballot | GOP vs. DEM: 52/43 49/45Pres Ballot | Trump vs Harris/Biden: 50/45 50/46Senate Ballot | Cruz/Allred: 48/47 47/44
TEXAS POLLING NOTES
"Beginning in early August, Colin Allred has been heavily outspending Ted Cruz on TV, closingup the multicandidate ballot to a single point. GOP outside groups (including a dedicated Cruzsuper PAC) joined the fray in late September and narrowed Allred’s spending advantage. We are carefully monitoring additional media placements and will have fresh polling numbers here next week..."
The main takeaway from a Dem standpoint is that in one month (Sept) until Oct they show the race going from 47-44 Cruz, to now showing Cruz only up 48-47. This is a race where favorability could tell the tale because Cruz is at 49-48 compared to Allred's 48-36.
This is a 5 page memo going into great depth about the numbers in all the contested Senate races...They weren't polling Nebraska previously, but the memo mentions that they are in the process of doing so because Fischer's issues seem to have crept up on them.The largets lead they show for Pubs in states that will decide the Senate is Tester down 4 to Sheehy the non-native Montanan who has told a variety of stories about how he got shot in a parking lot at a National Park...
