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Road to the Playoffs

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Jan 6, 2019
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We likely need to be 10-2 to make the playoffs. We could realistically run the table before the Michigan and Ohio State games.

After Washington’s loss in the Apple Cup, everyone before Michigan visits looks beatable. Shit, even the Wolverines are a game we can win in Bloomington.

Would be amazing to have Purdue in town with a playoff birth in the line.

Going to be an amazing season! Now we just need people to show up and pack the place.
 
We likely need to be 10-2 to make the playoffs. We could realistically run the table before the Michigan and Ohio State games.

After Washington’s loss in the Apple Cup, everyone before Michigan visits looks beatable. Shit, even the Wolverines are a game we can win in Bloomington.

Would be amazing to have Purdue in town with a playoff birth in the line.

Going to be an amazing season! Now we just need people to show up and pack the place.


In my opinion, we'll have to go 11-1 to get in...

If it's between us or say USC or Iowa at 10-2 or some other big name legacy team I think they'll go with the team that's historically packed their home venue... In a case like this our weak attendance could really come back to bite us...

The only way we slide in at 10-2 is if we beat most of the other 10-2' s head to head (like Michigan) and end up being a 10-12 seed team who's opening up at someone else's home field.

Now this is complete conjecture on my part with zero mathematical analysis involved so take it with a 20lb bag of salt 😉😎🍺.

The one thing I am certain of is that our actual attendance, or lack of (as in actual drone photo verifiable butts in the seats, not just tickets sold)..., will weigh heavily with any committee that's deciding who to award a Home Playoff Game to... Being a "Real Fan" will matter if you ever want a Home Field First Round Playoff Game at Memorial Stadium...

It would be ashame to see our TEAM go 11-1 and have to end up playing at someone else's Home Field due to our attendance issues...

Let's hope this IS something we need to worry about but just in case the smart move is to show up early and stay late at Memorial Stadium on Game Day....
 
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We likely need to be 10-2 to make the playoffs. We could realistically run the table before the Michigan and Ohio State games.

After Washington’s loss in the Apple Cup, everyone before Michigan visits looks beatable. Shit, even the Wolverines are a game we can win in Bloomington.

Would be amazing to have Purdue in town with a playoff birth in the line.

Going to be an amazing season! Now we just need people to show up and pack the place.
i'm taking them one game at a time. the most important game on the schedule right now is charlotte. i hope the team feels the same.
 
The preseason toss-ups are still more or less the toss-ups.

Michigan is looking more beatable, but no reason to think they won't be favored.

Nebraska is looking tougher, but no reason to think they're not still beatable.

We have to see how the season plays out, but I think IU will need 11-1 to make a playoff push. Because if UCLA, Maryland, MSU, Northwestern, & Washington end up being bad, then how far do wins over 1/3 of Nebraska, Michigan, & OSU get you? With our non-con, I'm not sure it gets us far enough. 2 of 3? That does it, particularly if the 1 loss would be respectable and/or we end up in the conference championship game.

That's putting the cart WAY before the horse though. Have to win each game as we go before getting crazy thoughts in our heads.
 
Way too soon to be talking playoffs.
Jim Mora Playoffs GIF
 
In my opinion, we'll have to go 11-1 to get in...

If it's between us or say USC or Iowa at 10-2 or some other big name legacy team I think they'll go with the team that's historically packed their home venue... In a case like this our weak attendance could really come back to bite us...

The only way we slide in at 10-2 is if we beat most of the other 10-2' s head to head (like Michigan) and end up being a 10-12 seed team who's opening up at someone else's home field.

Now this is complete conjecture on my part with zero mathematical analysis involved so take it with a 20lb bag of salt 😉😎🍺.

The one thing I am certain of is that our actual attendance, or lack of (as in actual drone photo verifiable butts in the seats, not just tickets sold)..., will weigh heavily with any committee that's deciding who to award a Home Playoff Game to... Being a "Real Fan" will matter if you ever want a Home Field First Round Playoff Game at Memorial Stadium...

It would be ashame to see our TEAM go 11-1 and have to end up playing at someone else's Home Field due to our attendance issues...

Let's hope this IS something we need to worry about but just in case the smart move is to show up early and stay late at Memorial Stadium on Game Day....
Great post, I'll add "and play the Bucs tight to get in on the one loss." Agree? Mobile
 
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No harm in talking about it...but it does reek of the talk many had before the 2021 season...

This team certainly appears to be built differently, but again, that's the same thing many were saying on this board after the breakout 19 and 20 seasons.

So, obviously, lets just wait and see what we do the next few weeks before "playoffs" are any sort of real consideration. Otherwise, what should be celebrated as a miraculous turnaround 8-4 or 7-5 type season, will be stained with unrealistic expectations, that only grew because of a couple impressive early season wins.

Having said that...

The Big Ten Championship game will play a big role, I think. So, do we get in to that game? Do we win that game? More questions than just the records.

10-2...2 B10 regular season losses, miss the title game...don't think we get in.
11-1...somehow missing out on B10 title game...good chance we get in to playoff.
11-2...1 regular season loss, and loss in the B10 title game...don't think we get in.
12-1...regular season loss, win B10 title game, we're in.
12-1...undefeated regular season, loss in B10 title game, we're in.

So basically 1 loss I think we'd have a great chance to get in. 2 losses, very little chance.

It'll all be effected by the top teams in other conferences, obviously. But with likely 6 of the spots taken up by P4 champions, Group of 5 team, and then I do think Notre Dame will be ranked high enough... That leaves 6 spots. There would almost certainly be enough Alabama and USC, higher profile, type programs with similar records, to get in over IU, if IU ends with 2 losses. That would bring a program like say Tennessee, or Oklahoma, if they had even 3 losses, in to the discussion... And I think there would be enough teams like that with 2 or 3 losses, that would leap frog IU. I don't think there'd be enough if we only had 1 loss, though.

But I don't think a 1 loss season is very likely, logistically. That probably implies that we'd have to beat OSU at least once. And until I see a lot more out of this team, I can't envision that happening.
 
No harm in talking about it...but it does reek of the talk many had before the 2021 season...

This team certainly appears to be built differently, but again, that's the same thing many were saying on this board after the breakout 19 and 20 seasons.

So, obviously, lets just wait and see what we do the next few weeks before "playoffs" are any sort of real consideration. Otherwise, what should be celebrated as a miraculous turnaround 8-4 or 7-5 type season, will be stained with unrealistic expectations, that only grew because of a couple impressive early season wins.

Having said that...

The Big Ten Championship game will play a big role, I think. So, do we get in to that game? Do we win that game? More questions than just the records.

10-2...2 B10 regular season losses, miss the title game...don't think we get in.
11-1...somehow missing out on B10 title game...good chance we get in to playoff.
11-2...1 regular season loss, and loss in the B10 title game...don't think we get in.
12-1...regular season loss, win B10 title game, we're in.
12-1...undefeated regular season, loss in B10 title game, we're in.

So basically 1 loss I think we'd have a great chance to get in. 2 losses, very little chance.

It'll all be effected by the top teams in other conferences, obviously. But with likely 6 of the spots taken up by P4 champions, Group of 5 team, and then I do think Notre Dame will be ranked high enough... That leaves 6 spots. There would almost certainly be enough Alabama and USC, higher profile, type programs with similar records, to get in over IU, if IU ends with 2 losses. That would bring a program like say Tennessee, or Oklahoma, if they had even 3 losses, in to the discussion... And I think there would be enough teams like that with 2 or 3 losses, that would leap frog IU. I don't think there'd be enough if we only had 1 loss, though.

But I don't think a 1 loss season is very likely, logistically. That probably implies that we'd have to beat OSU at least once. And until I see a lot more out of this team, I can't envision that happening.
Your 3rd paragraph is spot on
 
No harm in talking about it...but it does reek of the talk many had before the 2021 season...

This team certainly appears to be built differently, but again, that's the same thing many were saying on this board after the breakout 19 and 20 seasons.

So, obviously, lets just wait and see what we do the next few weeks before "playoffs" are any sort of real consideration. Otherwise, what should be celebrated as a miraculous turnaround 8-4 or 7-5 type season, will be stained with unrealistic expectations, that only grew because of a couple impressive early season wins.

Having said that...

The Big Ten Championship game will play a big role, I think. So, do we get in to that game? Do we win that game? More questions than just the records.

10-2...2 B10 regular season losses, miss the title game...don't think we get in.
11-1...somehow missing out on B10 title game...good chance we get in to playoff.
11-2...1 regular season loss, and loss in the B10 title game...don't think we get in.
12-1...regular season loss, win B10 title game, we're in.
12-1...undefeated regular season, loss in B10 title game, we're in.

So basically 1 loss I think we'd have a great chance to get in. 2 losses, very little chance.

It'll all be effected by the top teams in other conferences, obviously. But with likely 6 of the spots taken up by P4 champions, Group of 5 team, and then I do think Notre Dame will be ranked high enough... That leaves 6 spots. There would almost certainly be enough Alabama and USC, higher profile, type programs with similar records, to get in over IU, if IU ends with 2 losses. That would bring a program like say Tennessee, or Oklahoma, if they had even 3 losses, in to the discussion... And I think there would be enough teams like that with 2 or 3 losses, that would leap frog IU. I don't think there'd be enough if we only had 1 loss, though.

But I don't think a 1 loss season is very likely, logistically. That probably implies that we'd have to beat OSU at least once. And until I see a lot more out of this team, I can't envision that happening.
I think this is close, except that if IU makes the Big Ten title game at 10-2, they are probably getting in win or lose.

That would mean we were the 2nd best team in a gigantic conference. With only 4 power conferences, they will probably take the top 2 from each conference, 1 G5 team, and then go looking for the 3 best teams that didn't make it in the above criteria.

The conferences signed up for the 12 team playoff to get their 2nd place teams in, and thus make more money, not so they can exclude them.

I'll go further....I don't think they care one little bit about home attendance. This is about TV money. IU in the tournament would draw plenty of eyeballs as a Cinderella style underdog.
 
I think this is close, except that if IU makes the Big Ten title game at 10-2, they are probably getting in win or lose.

That would mean we were the 2nd best team in a gigantic conference. With only 4 power conferences, they will probably take the top 2 from each conference, 1 G5 team, and then go looking for the 3 best teams that didn't make it in the above criteria.

The conferences signed up for the 12 team playoff to get their 2nd place teams in, and thus make more money, not so they can exclude them.

I'll go further....I don't think they care one little bit about home attendance. This is about TV money. IU in the tournament would draw plenty of eyeballs as a Cinderella style underdog.
Could be...but look at this possible scenario...assuming IU ends 10-2 and loses to OSU in B10 title game. So 10-3, with a loss to Michigan and OSU twice...as a likely example.

SEC champ (Georgia)
B10 champ (OSU)
ACC Champ (Miami)
B12 Champ (Utah)
Group of 5 Top Rated
Notre Dame

Potential 2nd and 3rd place teams for committee to choose from.

SEC...Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma, LSU
ACC...Louisville, Clemson
B12...Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
B10...Penn State, USC, Oregon (all teams that could end with 2 losses that wouldn't have played us)

Its pretty easy to come up with 6 teams they'd pick over IU...after seeing IU lose to OSU twice. Every single team on that list brings "more" to the playoff, from basically every measure, than a 2-3 loss IU team would.
 
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In a tiebreaker vs a big football school… I don’t like our chances. Less people watch us so we generate less money for all parties involved and that is just a strong influence not in our favor. It would be very cool if we had to worry about this.
 
No harm in talking about it...but it does reek of the talk many had before the 2021 season...

This team certainly appears to be built differently, but again, that's the same thing many were saying on this board after the breakout 19 and 20 seasons.

So, obviously, lets just wait and see what we do the next few weeks before "playoffs" are any sort of real consideration. Otherwise, what should be celebrated as a miraculous turnaround 8-4 or 7-5 type season, will be stained with unrealistic expectations, that only grew because of a couple impressive early season wins.

Having said that...

The Big Ten Championship game will play a big role, I think. So, do we get in to that game? Do we win that game? More questions than just the records.

10-2...2 B10 regular season losses, miss the title game...don't think we get in.
11-1...somehow missing out on B10 title game...good chance we get in to playoff.
11-2...1 regular season loss, and loss in the B10 title game...don't think we get in.
12-1...regular season loss, win B10 title game, we're in.
12-1...undefeated regular season, loss in B10 title game, we're in.

So basically 1 loss I think we'd have a great chance to get in. 2 losses, very little chance.

It'll all be effected by the top teams in other conferences, obviously. But with likely 6 of the spots taken up by P4 champions, Group of 5 team, and then I do think Notre Dame will be ranked high enough... That leaves 6 spots. There would almost certainly be enough Alabama and USC, higher profile, type programs with similar records, to get in over IU, if IU ends with 2 losses. That would bring a program like say Tennessee, or Oklahoma, if they had even 3 losses, in to the discussion... And I think there would be enough teams like that with 2 or 3 losses, that would leap frog IU. I don't think there'd be enough if we only had 1 loss, though.

But I don't think a 1 loss season is very likely, logistically. That probably implies that we'd have to beat OSU at least once. And until I see a lot more out of this team, I can't envision that happening.
In the he last 3 years teams ranked 8-12, 5-12, and 6-12 in the final rankings all had 2 or 3 losses.
 
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Could be...but look at this possible scenario...assuming IU ends 10-2 and loses to OSU in B10 title game. So 10-3, with a loss to Michigan and OSU twice...as a likely example.

SEC champ (Georgia)
B10 champ (OSU)
ACC Champ (Miami)
B12 Champ (Utah)
Group of 5 Top Rated
Notre Dame

Potential 2nd and 3rd place teams for committee to choose from.

SEC...Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma, LSU
ACC...Louisville, Clemson
B12...Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
B10...Penn State, USC, Oregon (all teams that could end with 2 losses that wouldn't have played us)

Its pretty easy to come up with 6 teams they'd pick over IU...after seeing IU lose to OSU twice. Every single team on that list brings "more" to the playoff, from basically every measure, than a 2-3 loss IU team would.
The B12 and ACC are only getting one team in each, their conference champion.
 
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In a tiebreaker vs a big football school… I don’t like our chances. Less people watch us so we generate less money for all parties involved and that is just a strong influence not in our favor. It would be very cool if we had to worry about this.
There's no tiebreakers, it's the same selection process they've used since they introduced the 4 team playoff. The 5 highest ranked conference champions get an automatic bid: SEC, B10, likely B12, likely ACC, and then some G5 team with the 4 highest ranked conference champions receiving the first 4 seeds.
 
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There's no tiebreakers, it's the same selection process they've used since they introduced the 4 team playoff. The 5 highest ranked conference champions get an automatic bid: SEC, B10, likely B12, likely ACC, and then some G5 team with the 4 highest ranked conference champions receiving the first 4 seeds.
Good. Thanks. I assumed reading the thread there were some committee judgment calls.
 
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In the he last 3 years teams ranked 8-12, 5-12, and 6-12 in the final rankings all had 2 or 3 losses.
What's your point? How many teams past 12 had 2-3 losses?

They won't use traditional rankings to pick the 7 "at large" teams, other than if Notre Dame is ranked high enough, I think they automatically get in. So as long as ND is "top 12", they'll get in.

The point of this thread is will a 2-3 loss IU team have a chance to get in? Chance, obviously. Liklihood, I say no.

The at large pool will include (assuming Georgia, OSU, Miami, lets say Utah...as the main P4 conference autos):

Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, Penn State, USC, Oregon, another couple B12 teams, at least 1 more ACC team, and maybe even another Group of 5 team like Northern Illinois, Memphis, Liberty, etc...

A 2 loss IU team probably won't beat out all but 5 of those teams from that list...in my opinion. What good wins would IU have if they ended with 2 losses. Assuming they lose to OSU, they'd have to win 2 against Nebraska, Michigan...and...who else would be seen as a good win?

I say they gotta only lose to OSU, to get in. And then if they do make the B10 title game, and lose to them again...ehhh...I still say 6 teams from that list above will beat them out.
 
Good. Thanks. I assumed reading the thread there were some committee judgment calls.
The CFP rankings, by my understanding, will still be determined by committee. This won't be a BCS computer generated rankings thing.

There are auto bids involved, there has to be at least 1 group of 5 team, and Notre Dame gets some automatic concessions if they're up there high enough. But other than that, the rankings that will determine the "at large" teams, are still put together by a committee.

I could be wrong on that. But that's sure how it sounds to me when the pundits all talk about it. Often saying now that everyone will argue about who should be ranked 11-14 instead of 3-5.

Similar committee approach...more teams to include and evaluate.
 
The CFP rankings, by my understanding, will still be determined by committee. This won't be a BCS computer generated rankings thing.

There are auto bids involved, there has to be at least 1 group of 5 team, and Notre Dame gets some automatic concessions if they're up there high enough. But other than that, the rankings that will determine the "at large" teams, are still put together by a committee.

I could be wrong on that. But that's sure how it sounds to me when the pundits all talk about it. Often saying now that everyone will argue about who should be ranked 11-14 instead of 3-5.

Similar committee approach...more teams to include and evaluate.
Thanks. I don’t know how the new system works so this is all helpful.
 
Could be...but look at this possible scenario...assuming IU ends 10-2 and loses to OSU in B10 title game. So 10-3, with a loss to Michigan and OSU twice...as a likely example.

SEC champ (Georgia)
B10 champ (OSU)
ACC Champ (Miami)
B12 Champ (Utah)
Group of 5 Top Rated
Notre Dame

Potential 2nd and 3rd place teams for committee to choose from.

SEC...Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma, LSU
ACC...Louisville, Clemson
B12...Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
B10...Penn State, USC, Oregon (all teams that could end with 2 losses that wouldn't have played us)

Its pretty easy to come up with 6 teams they'd pick over IU...after seeing IU lose to OSU twice. Every single team on that list brings "more" to the playoff, from basically every measure, than a 2-3 loss IU team would.
Meh. That huge list of teams aren't all going 10-2 or 10-3. Notre Dame lost to N. Illinois, they are not the lock you're suggesting they are.

An 8-4 also ran from the big 12 or ACC isn't getting in over the big ten runner up.
 
Could be...but look at this possible scenario...assuming IU ends 10-2 and loses to OSU in B10 title game. So 10-3, with a loss to Michigan and OSU twice...as a likely example.

SEC champ (Georgia)
B10 champ (OSU)
ACC Champ (Miami)
B12 Champ (Utah)
Group of 5 Top Rated
Notre Dame

Potential 2nd and 3rd place teams for committee to choose from.

SEC...Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma, LSU
ACC...Louisville, Clemson
B12...Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
B10...Penn State, USC, Oregon (all teams that could end with 2 losses that wouldn't have played us)

Its pretty easy to come up with 6 teams they'd pick over IU...after seeing IU lose to OSU twice. Every single team on that list brings "more" to the playoff, from basically every measure, than a 2-3 loss IU team would.
Your scenario of losing to Michigan is off as I bet IU beats them this year.
 
Michigan’s O looks terrible right now. Unless they find a qb and quick, they aren’t coming to IU with only 2 losses, unless their very good D can find a way to generate some points. Hopefully they will have way more than 2 losses too!! They have 4 very losable games before they come here on 11/9 (USC this wknd, at Washington, at Illinois and host Oregon the week before coming to IU). Hopefully they will be a battered, beat down team by then. Maybe even down to Tuttle time!! Let’s show them a game like 2020, again, but this time WITH FANS!!

I’m in no way, shape or form thinking IU makes the playoff at 10-2, as OSU and Nebraska MAY be the only ranked squads on the schedule when we play them. For IU to get in, I feel would need to be 11-1. OSU, PSU, USC, Oregon, Nebraska and maybe even Illinois (better OOC win vs KS) go before IU, if all have 2 losses. Let’s enjoy the ride.
 
What's your point? How many teams past 12 had 2-3 losses?

They won't use traditional rankings to pick the 7 "at large" teams, other than if Notre Dame is ranked high enough, I think they automatically get in. So as long as ND is "top 12", they'll get in.

The point of this thread is will a 2-3 loss IU team have a chance to get in? Chance, obviously. Liklihood, I say no.

The at large pool will include (assuming Georgia, OSU, Miami, lets say Utah...as the main P4 conference autos):

Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, Penn State, USC, Oregon, another couple B12 teams, at least 1 more ACC team, and maybe even another Group of 5 team like Northern Illinois, Memphis, Liberty, etc...

A 2 loss IU team probably won't beat out all but 5 of those teams from that list...in my opinion. What good wins would IU have if they ended with 2 losses. Assuming they lose to OSU, they'd have to win 2 against Nebraska, Michigan...and...who else would be seen as a good win?

I say they gotta only lose to OSU, to get in. And then if they do make the B10 title game, and lose to them again...ehhh...I still say 6 teams from that list above will beat them out.
Penn State finished 10-2 last year with exactly one win against a ranked team (Iowa) and losses to OSU and Michigan without playing for a conference championship. They were ranked 9th.

If IU goes 10-2 regardless of the means in which they got there, they will absolutely have a fighting chance to get in a 12 team playoff.
 
Penn State finished 10-2 last year with exactly one win against a ranked team (Iowa) and losses to OSU and Michigan without playing for a conference championship. They were ranked 9th.

If IU goes 10-2 regardless of the means in which they got there, they will absolutely have a fighting chance to get in a 12 team playoff.
Chance for sure. Just would worry about the bevy of SEC teams that will also have 2-3 losses. And then the ranked B10 teams they don’t play…. And then what if there are 2 undefeated group of 5 teams? N Illinois and Memphis say.

Another potential factor…it’s gonna take IU a few more weeks probably to even get ranked in the first place. Educated guess puts them ranked around 8-12 if they’re undefeated headed in to Michigan game. So if they were to lose back to back games to Mich and OSU, probably drops them down below 15 or so. Purdue win wont elevate them much.
 
Here's the Official criteria for selection... :


Looks like all we need to do is stay ranked in the top 10 thru the last half of the season and finish 1st or 2nd in the Big Ten to have a legit shot at getting in... Not a big ask right... Should make for an interesting season...
 
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Here's the Official criteria for selection... :


Looks like all we need to do is stay ranked in the top 10 thru the last half of the season and finish 1st or 2nd in the Big Ten to have a legit shot at getting in... Not a big ask right... Should make for an interesting season...
A very general observation from that article tells me that a 10-2 record would likely get Indiana into the CFP. A record of 11-1 would be a lock.
 
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