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RE: Dusty May. For your consideration

oldcougar77

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Apr 21, 2004
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Remember in 2018 when Porter Moser had a dynamite team at Loyola, won 32 games and made the final four? Then followed that up in 2021 with another run to the sweet sixteen. Plenty of wins in between.

After that 2021 run, Moser moves to Oklahoma to replace Lon Kreuger, who had a good program in place making regular NCAAT appearances ( 7 of previous 9 years). A school that had a rich basketball history extending back to Billy Tubbs and Kelvin Sampson. Not a program that was "down", much less a dumpster fire.

Two years in, Moser is one game over .500 and hasn't made the NCAAT ( or any postseason tourney). How badly would the teeth-gnashers on this board be losing their minds if Dusty May came to IU and had the same result.

I'm not dissing May or Moser. I think both are fine coaches who have been and will continue to be successful. I'm just saying that winning big and making deep tourney runs is a process and every situation is different. Deciding two years in that Woodson should be replaced with a guy who currently has a wildly successful team might be a little premature. There is no such thing as a "sure thing" in sports. The failure to win a major in your first couple of years on the PGA tour is not a guarantee that a person never will. In the same vein, coming from obscurity to win the Masters early in your career doesn't mean you are destined to be Jack Nicklaus.
 
The million dollar question is what characteristics distinguish a successful mid-major coach who was not successful in “higher” programs from one that is?

I don’t think we can just chalk it up to luck or cosmic chance. But it would make for a fascinating deep-dive on a dissertation or something like that. If somebody can identify common threads and patterns that lend themselves to success at the higher level, their advice would become worth its weight in gold - even if they don’t bat 1.000 (nobody could).
 
The million dollar question is what characteristics distinguish a successful mid-major coach who was not successful in “higher” programs from one that is?

I don’t think we can just chalk it up to luck or cosmic chance. But it would make for a fascinating deep-dive on a dissertation or something like that. If somebody can identify common threads and patterns that lend themselves to success at the higher level, their advice would become worth its weight in gold - even if they don’t bat 1.000 (nobody could).
How about this for a start? The FAU team that's currently running though this year's NCAAT, what do you think their League won/loss record would've been this year if they were in the BiG?
 
The million dollar question is what characteristics distinguish a successful mid-major coach who was not successful in “higher” programs from one that is?

I don’t think we can just chalk it up to luck or cosmic chance. But it would make for a fascinating deep-dive on a dissertation or something like that. If somebody can identify common threads and patterns that lend themselves to success at the higher level, their advice would become worth its weight in gold - even if they don’t bat 1.000 (nobody could).
For sure. If you could discover that formula, bottle it and sell it, you would be rich beyond your wildest dreams. Unfortunately, it's like solving a math problem that has 100 variables.

Amazingly, a number of dipshits who frequent this board believe themselves to be Matt Damon in "Good Will Hunting". Or at least they think IU's athletic directors should be.
 
Remember in 2018 when Porter Moser had a dynamite team at Loyola, won 32 games and made the final four? Then followed that up in 2021 with another run to the sweet sixteen. Plenty of wins in between.

After that 2021 run, Moser moves to Oklahoma to replace Lon Kreuger, who had a good program in place making regular NCAAT appearances ( 7 of previous 9 years). A school that had a rich basketball history extending back to Billy Tubbs and Kelvin Sampson. Not a program that was "down", much less a dumpster fire.

Two years in, Moser is one game over .500 and hasn't made the NCAAT ( or any postseason tourney). How badly would the teeth-gnashers on this board be losing their minds if Dusty May came to IU and had the same result.

I'm not dissing May or Moser. I think both are fine coaches who have been and will continue to be successful. I'm just saying that winning big and making deep tourney runs is a process and every situation is different. Deciding two years in that Woodson should be replaced with a guy who currently has a wildly successful team might be a little premature. There is no such thing as a "sure thing" in sports. The failure to win a major in your first couple of years on the PGA tour is not a guarantee that a person never will. In the same vein, coming from obscurity to win the Masters early in your career doesn't mean you are destined to be Jack Nicklaus.
Hmmm, maybe it’s a bit different level of competition going from Loyola to OK? Maybe it’s a little different going from whatever conference Loyola is in to the Big 12. Maybe MVC was a more level playing field from school to school.

Loyola was, what, MVC and now A10 or whatever?

Anyways, seems like for the last 10-15 years (maybe longer) there’s always some team coming out of nowhere to take down a big name school, make the Elite 8, whatever. I’ve always wondered if some of those smaller schools play so well in the tournament because there’s no pressure. No one expects them to win. I believe that would allow a team to play more in control. Not that the team doesn’t still play hard, just more in control.
 
Hmmm, maybe it’s a bit different level of competition going from Loyola to OK? Maybe it’s a little different going from whatever conference Loyola is in to the Big 12. Maybe MVC was a more level playing field from school to school.

Loyola was, what, MVC and now A10 or whatever?

Anyways, seems like for the last 10-15 years (maybe longer) there’s always some team coming out of nowhere to take down a big name school, make the Elite 8, whatever. I’ve always wondered if some of those smaller schools play so well in the tournament because there’s no pressure. No one expects them to win. I believe that would allow a team to play more in control. Not that the team doesn’t still play hard, just more in control.
I agree with you, I'm sure that's part of it.
 
For sure. If you could discover that formula, bottle it and sell it, you would be rich beyond your wildest dreams. Unfortunately, it's like solving a math problem that has 100 variables.

Amazingly, a number of dipshits who frequent this board believe they are Matt Damon in "Good Will Hunting".
With some coaches you can see a clear pattern of success and steady improvement no matter where they’ve been. And I do mean steady improvement, not 4-5 shitty/mediocre seasons with one miracle season at the end. I mean you can easily see a pattern where no matter where they’ve been their team has gone from, for example, 10 wins, to 14, to 19, to 24 and then stayed there for 2-3 seasons (or however much longer they are there)
 
With some coaches you can see a clear pattern of success and steady improvement no matter where they’ve been. And I do mean steady improvement, not 4-5 shitty/mediocre seasons with one miracle season at the end. I mean you can easily see a pattern where no matter where they’ve been their team has gone from, for example, 10 wins, to 14, to 19, to 24 and then stayed there for 2-3 seasons (or however much longer they are there)
Right, like Archie Miller at Dayton. Started out with winning records, year 3 to year 7 , 20+ wins, single digit losses and 4 tourneys in a row ..

He's the guy that can right the IU ship ...
 
Hmmm, maybe it’s a bit different level of competition going from Loyola to OK? Maybe it’s a little different going from whatever conference Loyola is in to the Big 12. Maybe MVC was a more level playing field from school to school.

Loyola was, what, MVC and now A10 or whatever?

Anyways, seems like for the last 10-15 years (maybe longer) there’s always some team coming out of nowhere to take down a big name school, make the Elite 8, whatever. I’ve always wondered if some of those smaller schools play so well in the tournament because there’s no pressure. No one expects them to win. I believe that would allow a team to play more in control. Not that the team doesn’t still play hard, just more in control.
I also think that playing and winning most or all of your games in a lesser conference can be a huge confidence booster. If you are good, and you don't doubt how good you are, you don't get rattled. When you've lost some close games in a grueling conference, sometimes that doubt can rear its ugly head. Especially in a game against a team that you can't imagine should be competing against you - let alone beating you.
 
I also think that playing and winning most or all of your games in a lesser conference can be a huge confidence booster. If you are good, and you don't doubt how good you are, you don't get rattled. When you've lost some close games in a grueling conference, sometimes that doubt can rear its ugly head. Especially in a game against a team that you can't imagine should be competing against you - let alone beating you.
All the credit goes to the less talented more composed team that wins but no blame goes to the more talented team that puckers. It takes both ...

If these were 7 games series FAU probably wouldn't have made it past the 2nd round,.
 
With some coaches you can see a clear pattern of success and steady improvement no matter where they’ve been. And I do mean steady improvement, not 4-5 shitty/mediocre seasons with one miracle season at the end. I mean you can easily see a pattern where no matter where they’ve been their team has gone from, for example, 10 wins, to 14, to 19, to 24 and then stayed there for 2-3 seasons (or however much longer they are there)
Which is what Moser did at Loyola. It makes my point. He may still develop a dominant program at Oklahoma. But it's going to take more than two years. My problem with the fools here is that they honestly believe that Woodson should have already done that here, and that Dusty May would be a guarantee lock to get us to 30 wins and a final four in his first two years at IU. It's irrational, but it's how some of these morons honestly think.
 
Right, like Archie Miller at Dayton. Started out with winning records, year 3 to year 7 , 20+ wins, single digit losses and 4 tourneys in a row ..

He's the guy that can right the IU ship ...
Miller’s only head coaching experience was Dayton, and pretty much everyone wins at Dayton. I wasn’t a fan of Miller, he was the flavor of the month. Let’s see how he does at Rhode Island. Not off to a good start I hear.
 
Which is what Moser did at Loyola. It makes my point. He may still develop a dominant program at Oklahoma. But it's going to take more than two years. My problem with the fools here is that they honestly believe that Woodson should have already done that here, and that Dusty May would be a guarantee lock to get us to 30 wins and a final four in his first two years at IU. It's irrational, but it's how some of these morons honestly think.
I could disagree with what you said but that would be dishonest.
 
Miller’s only head coaching experience was Dayton, and pretty much everyone wins at Dayton. I wasn’t a fan of Miller, he was the flavor of the month. Let’s see how he does at Rhode Island. Not off to a good start I hear.
fwiw - the gist.

There's no possible way to gauge how a coach will do. His resume was about as perfect as it gets, as far as a mid major coaching record.
 
For sure. If you could discover that formula, bottle it and sell it, you would be rich beyond your wildest dreams. Unfortunately, it's like solving a math problem that has 100 variables.

Amazingly, a number of dipshits who frequent this board believe themselves to be Matt Damon in "Good Will Hunting". Or at least they think IU's athletic directors should be.
They like shiny objects. Shop for looks. I have a ton of tools. The best ones look worn out. Why? Because they get used and are dependable after trials. The best vehicles I’ve owned are north of 200k miles. My current work vehicle is 300k miles. Some of picking people for jobs is Luck. I like what May is doing but some of this is pure luck and the alignment of stars and pieces he had little to do with. I bet he has a new job next year. No way he stays at FAU but he won’t be at Texas, UK or Texas tech.
 
fwiw - the gist.

There's no possible way to gauge how a coach will do. His resume was about as perfect as it gets, as far as a mid major coaching record.
Of course not but there are coaches with a clear patterns from different schools they’ve coached.
 
They like shiny objects. Shop for looks. I have a ton of tools. The best ones look worn out. Why? Because they get used and are dependable after trials. The best vehicles I’ve owned are north of 200k miles. My current work vehicle is 300k miles. Some of picking people for jobs is Luck. I like what May is doing but some of this is pure luck and the alignment of stars and pieces he had little to do with. I bet he has a new job next year. No way he stays at FAU but he won’t be at Texas, UK or Texas tech.
I’d like to see how he does in a better conference, or at least at a school where they expect you to win and make the tournament. Is there a lot of pressure to win at FAU? Will FAU fans and boosters be calling for Dusty’s head if he’s still there for a couple more years and doesn’t make the tournament? Are FAU fans critiquing Dusty’s recruiting and is all the local/national media up his ass for interviews and writing articles about Dusty all year long? Just asking.
 
I’d like to see how he does in a better conference, or at least at a school where they expect you to win and make the tournament. Is there a lot of pressure to win at FAU? Will FAU fans and boosters be calling for Dusty’s head if he’s still there for a couple more years and doesn’t make the tournament? Are FAU fans critiquing Dusty’s recruiting and is all the local/national media up his ass for interviews and writing articles about Dusty all year long? Just asking.
Exactly... plus that's only part of the difference. At a major school he would get better more talented players, those players also have bigger more talented egos and far greater expectations.

Upper echelon of NCAA coaching is about management. Every coach in the nation at this level has x and o ability, Do they have the leadership to manage multiple headcases, insane fans, demanding boosters .. that's what separates them.
 
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Exactly... plus that's only part of the difference. At a major school he would get better more talented players, those players also have more bigger more talented egos and far greater expectations.

Upper echelon of NCAA coaching is about management. Every coach in the nation at this level has x and o ability, Do they have the leadership to manage multiple headcases, insane fans, demanding boosters .. that's what separates them.
And don’t forget, some of those highly ranked players come with insane parents who are always up the coach’s ass about something.
 
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Exactly... plus that's only part of the difference. At a major school he would get better more talented players, those players also have more bigger more talented egos and far greater expectations.

Upper echelon of NCAA coaching is about management. Every coach in the nation at this level has x and o ability, Do they have the leadership to manage multiple headcases, insane fans, demanding boosters .. that's what separates them.
Spot on. With the notable exception of one Tom Crean as it pertains to X's and O's - just play like your hair is on fire and your ass is about to catch. If you get slowed down, weave until the shot clock hits 2 seconds and jack one up.
 
I look at a guy like DeVries for Drake whose never had a bad season in five years. He's already the most successful coach in Drake's 120 years of basketball. So he can coach, that's step 1.

Step 2 is the interview, and does he pass muster with contacts in the industry. Every good AD should have a network of these.

John Feinstien wrote about Duke hiring Coach K - K was recommended to the AD despite being barely .500 at Army. And his interview was so impressive, Duke's AD tried to sign him on the spot.
 
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How about this for a start? The FAU team that's currently running though this year's NCAAT, what do you think their League won/loss record would've been this year if they were in the BiG?
Maybe there’s value in that. It’s hard to say, because I’m sure that even the lowest B10 programs have advantages over even the best CUSA programs. Or, at least, you’d think they would. But I doubt they’d be 35-3 in the B10.

Gonzaga successfully made the leap from a mid-major to a national powerhouse program. And it all started with an improbable run to the Elite Eight in 1999. I remember it vividly. How’d they pull that off?

How would Jay Wright’s Hofstra teams in 2000 and 2001 have fared in a power conference? They had great seasons (16-2) in the America East, but both lost in the 1st round. He gets hired at Villanova and goes on to win two banners.

If we were applying your question to him, would we have written him off because (a) his teams failed to win a tournament game, and (b) his success came in a regional conference?

I don’t know the answer. And maybe there isn’t one - just like there isn’t a foolproof answer to drafting QBs. Despite all the work NFL teams go through to make those picks, they’re still as likely to fail as they are to succeed.
 
even if you could see what ingredients led to a successful coach (jumping from a mid major), what relevance would that even have right now?

College basketball as we knew it is dead.

Nil and the portal have changed everything. Throw in the Covid year, and there is almost no way to know what things will look like in the future.

In North Dallas Forty, there is a scene at the end of the book where Phil Elliot (aging WR that gave his body to the game, RIP Peter Gent) is being railroaded out. He is told he is not a team player. TEAM???? He screams in his best impression of Jim Mora. The players aren’t the team, the owners are. The shareholders are. The board members are. The players are equipment, blocking dummies, helmets. They are capital investments, things that the owners depreciate off of the books.

That is now.

Why are we even talking about Dusty May???? Can he buy a team? How do you think he would do with a team owned by 4 different collectives, and a group of players/assets all that have conflicting sets of interests? The times have changed. He’s probably best staying where he is, getting a raise and hoping that he can keep the program as pure as possible.

Edit: Keeping in mind that pro players in the 60s/70s made almost no money. These were NFL players that never made squat. They gave up their bodies, it would take some 2 hours just to get out of bed in the morning. Now, flash forward to the money that even IU’s bench players make. You think it’s easy to control all those different players with conflicting interests, easy to handle the boosters that bought these kids?

The Dusty Mays are what is right in collegiate sports. Hopefully he keeps it that way .
 
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I look at a guy like DeVries for Drake whose never had a bad season in five years. He's already the most successful coach in Drake's 120 years of basketball. So he can coach, that's step 1.

Step 2 is the interview, and does he pass muster with contacts in the industry. Every good AD should have a network of these.

John Feinstien wrote about Duke hiring Coach K - K was recommended to the AD despite being barely .500 at Army. And his interview was so impressive, Duke's AD tried to sign him on the spot.
That recommendation had some serious weight behind it.
 
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Remember in 2018 when Porter Moser had a dynamite team at Loyola, won 32 games and made the final four? Then followed that up in 2021 with another run to the sweet sixteen. Plenty of wins in between.

After that 2021 run, Moser moves to Oklahoma to replace Lon Kreuger, who had a good program in place making regular NCAAT appearances ( 7 of previous 9 years). A school that had a rich basketball history extending back to Billy Tubbs and Kelvin Sampson. Not a program that was "down", much less a dumpster fire.

Two years in, Moser is one game over .500 and hasn't made the NCAAT ( or any postseason tourney). How badly would the teeth-gnashers on this board be losing their minds if Dusty May came to IU and had the same result.

I'm not dissing May or Moser. I think both are fine coaches who have been and will continue to be successful. I'm just saying that winning big and making deep tourney runs is a process and every situation is different. Deciding two years in that Woodson should be replaced with a guy who currently has a wildly successful team might be a little premature. There is no such thing as a "sure thing" in sports. The failure to win a major in your first couple of years on the PGA tour is not a guarantee that a person never will. In the same vein, coming from obscurity to win the Masters early in your career doesn't mean you are destined to be Jack Nicklaus.
It is WAY TOO EARLY to force CMW out. i don't even want to talk about replacing him.
 
I look at a guy like DeVries for Drake whose never had a bad season in five years. He's already the most successful coach in Drake's 120 years of basketball. So he can coach, that's step 1.

Step 2 is the interview, and does he pass muster with contacts in the industry. Every good AD should have a network of these.

John Feinstien wrote about Duke hiring Coach K - K was recommended to the AD despite being barely .500 at Army. And his interview was so impressive, Duke's AD tried to sign him on the spot.
That recommendation had some serious weight behind it
It is WAY TOO EARLY to force CMW out. i don't even want to talk about replacing him.
You and I seem to be the minority on that around here.
 
Remember in 2018 when Porter Moser had a dynamite team at Loyola, won 32 games and made the final four? Then followed that up in 2021 with another run to the sweet sixteen. Plenty of wins in between.

After that 2021 run, Moser moves to Oklahoma to replace Lon Kreuger, who had a good program in place making regular NCAAT appearances ( 7 of previous 9 years). A school that had a rich basketball history extending back to Billy Tubbs and Kelvin Sampson. Not a program that was "down", much less a dumpster fire.

Two years in, Moser is one game over .500 and hasn't made the NCAAT ( or any postseason tourney). How badly would the teeth-gnashers on this board be losing their minds if Dusty May came to IU and had the same result.

I'm not dissing May or Moser. I think both are fine coaches who have been and will continue to be successful. I'm just saying that winning big and making deep tourney runs is a process and every situation is different. Deciding two years in that Woodson should be replaced with a guy who currently has a wildly successful team might be a little premature. There is no such thing as a "sure thing" in sports. The failure to win a major in your first couple of years on the PGA tour is not a guarantee that a person never will. In the same vein, coming from obscurity to win the Masters early in your career doesn't mean you are destined to be Jack Nicklaus.
Yet, you decided Moser and his two years in is different than Woodson's? Id imagine Moser's third year at OU will be better than CMW's third year here.
 
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Yet, you decided Moser and his two years in is different than Woodson's? Id imagine Moser's third year at OU will be better than CMW's third year here.
First, I'm not arguing that Moser should be replaced. I'm arguing that he and Woodson both deserve the time necessary to elevate their respective programs. I'm arguing that it's illogical to decide that Dusty May could automatically get us to a place in two years better than that of Woodson just because he's had a great year at FAU this year. That's a huge stretch. Moser's move to Oklahoma is evidence of that unlikelihood. It's a parallel story in case you aren't astute enough to understand that.

Secondly, what you "imagine" is based on nothing more than your ill-informed opinion, not anything based in fact. Your "feelings" about what is going to happen at either place are as valuable as the dryer lint in the pocket of your jeans. In the meantime, I'll get my grandkids' magic 8 ball out of the game closet and consult with it. I'll get back to you with the definitive answer as to whether Mike Woodson will fail or not, and whether Dusty May will get us to the FF next year. Then I'll call Scott Dolson and let him know that you and the magic 8 ball both concluded that Woodson must go so he has to make the move now.
 
First, I'm not arguing that Moser should be replaced. I'm arguing that he and Woodson both deserve the time necessary to elevate their respective programs. I'm arguing that it's illogical to decide that Dusty May could automatically get us to a place in two years better than that of Woodson just because he's had a great year at FAU this year. That's a huge stretch. Moser's move to Oklahoma is evidence of that unlikelihood. It's a parallel story in case you aren't astute enough to understand that.

Secondly, what you "imagine" is based on nothing more than your ill-informed opinion, not anything based in fact. Your "feelings" about what is going to happen at either place are as valuable as the dryer lint in the pocket of your jeans. In the meantime, I'll get my grandkids' magic 8 ball out of the game closet and consult with it. I'll get back to you with the definitive answer as to whether Mike Woodson will fail or not, and whether Dusty May will get us to the FF next year. Then I'll call Scott Dolson and let him know that you and the magic 8 ball both concluded that Woodson must go so he has to make the move now.
You need time away from this board. Away from us idiots. Go do a crossword or something.
 
It is WAY TOO EARLY to force CMW out. i don't even want to talk about replacing him.
Two seasons with 20+ wins, two tournament appearances, tied for 2nd in the B1G and fans calling for CMW’s head already. Yeah, I can see how appealing this job would be to other coaches. I bet they can’t wait to jump in with this fan base.
 
Was just on with Dakich. Dan said Woody is likely out of here in a year or 2 and he would hire Dusty right now.
 
That recommendation had some serious weight behind it

You and I seem to be the minority on that around here.
But we’re among the majority in “real life” among IU fans. The Negative Nancies are a very loud, but very small, subset of IU fans.
 
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First, I'm not arguing that Moser should be replaced. I'm arguing that he and Woodson both deserve the time necessary to elevate their respective programs. I'm arguing that it's illogical to decide that Dusty May could automatically get us to a place in two years better than that of Woodson just because he's had a great year at FAU this year. That's a huge stretch. Moser's move to Oklahoma is evidence of that unlikelihood. It's a parallel story in case you aren't astute enough to understand that.

Secondly, what you "imagine" is based on nothing more than your ill-informed opinion, not anything based in fact. Your "feelings" about what is going to happen at either place are as valuable as the dryer lint in the pocket of your jeans. In the meantime, I'll get my grandkids' magic 8 ball out of the game closet and consult with it. I'll get back to you with the definitive answer as to whether Mike Woodson will fail or not, and whether Dusty May will get us to the FF next year. Then I'll call Scott Dolson and let him know that you and the magic 8 ball both concluded that Woodson must go so he has to make the move now.
I'd be right there with you, except Woody isn't a long-term solution. We were always gonna need to start a search in a few years. Is there a huge difference between 3 years and 5 years when the potential is there to settle the HC position for a generation?

IU gonna fk around and blow another great opportunity. Hide and watch..
 
Don't forget that Archie Miller was the #1 up and coming coach at the time. Dusty May shows some promise but let's not jump to conclusions. Woody might be fine we'll see after this year. It really depends on how well he does in the portal. Maybe we get 5 more years out of Woody if IU
continues to improve with a deeper bench and pass the torch to a Lewis or May.
 
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I do not see Archie or Moser as comparable to May bend the obvious optics.

Archie took over a Dayton program that was already established with great facilities and fanbase. What he did there was amazing, but his coaching style and schemes on both sides of the ball quickly became archaic with the way the game has changed over the past 10-12 years.

Moser spent 13 years as a HC without making the NCAA tournament a single time. He was let go from 2 pervious school before Loyolla, and likely would have been let go that next year had he not made the tourney (he was in year 7 at Loyola that year).

May took over a program that had only ever made the NCAA tournament one time, with facilities so bad that he literally hid the gym and locker room from receipts on visits. He improved his record every single year there and already has the first and 3rd most wins in a season despite only being there 5 years. In fact, he has 17 wins in both of his first 2 seasons, which had only been done twice in FAUs entire history.
 
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