Probabilities

[snarlcakes]

This is a sick one @BradStevens. Dealing with the variance in poker is one of the hardest things to do mentally. I got my start playing heads up PLO and the equities run even in closer than NL. Also, playing heads up PLO, stacks can get in pretty quickly and before you know it you’re down 4 or 5 buy-ins.

The craziest run I went on was over span of about a month. I played mainly 2-4 (400 dollar buy in) and somehow got down 40k in about 3 weeks. I couldn’t have a winning session no matter how well I played. 2 weeks later I had made it all back and some. I swear I was playing well the entire time. The variance is brutal and a mind f#ck. I was ok with losing the money, but couldn’t stand not beating the other person.

On a positive note, poker has helped me in multiple ways when it comes to Bitcoin. I’m much more immune to large swings and think I’m good at seeing value where others don’t.

By the way the girl had roughly 1/400 chance of scooping. That’s the crazy thing with probability, no matter how small the chance, it’s going to happen sometimes. I’ve lived it.

 

[hookyIU1990]

Sounds great to the uninitiated, but tell us the truth. Pre or Post Arafat PLO? That will tell us pros all we need to know.

All the people who claim finite math is useless have never gambled.

 

[BradStevens]

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This is a sick one @BradStevens. Dealing with the variance in poker is one of the hardest things to do mentally. I got my start playing heads up PLO and the equities run even in closer than NL. Also, playing heads up PLO, stacks can get in pretty quickly and before you know it you’re down 4 or 5 buy-ins.

The craziest run I went on was over span of about a month. I played mainly 2-4 (400 dollar buy in) and somehow got down 40k in about 3 weeks. I couldn’t have a winning session no matter how well I played. 2 weeks later I had made it all back and some. I swear I was playing well the entire time. The variance is brutal and a mind f#ck. I was ok with losing the money, but couldn’t stand not beating the other person.

On a positive note, poker has helped me in multiple ways when it comes to Bitcoin. I’m much more immune to large swings and think I’m good at seeing value where others don’t.

By the way the girl had roughly 1/400 chance of scooping. That’s the crazy thing with probability, no matter how small the chance, it’s going to happen sometimes. I’ve lived it.

Playing against hot chicks is awful. Very, very hard to concentrate.

I figured out that if I was too worried about losing like that, I was playing too high of stakes for me. Need to be able to always risk it all when you've got the best of it, and not worry about the suck outs.